[Comm-Council] News Release: 'Revenues are lower and recovery is slow, State Economist says'

[HOKLIN Lonn * DO PA]

Oregon Department of Administrative Services

Office of Economic Analysis 

155 Cottage Street NE, U20

Salem, Oregon 97301-3966

News Release

For Immediate Release

August 26, 2010


 

Contact:          Lonn Hoklin, Public Affairs Manager, DAS

                        503.378.2627

                        lonn.hoklin at state.or.us

 

Revenues are lower and recovery is slow, State Economist says

Recession may be over, but pain remains for jobless, Tom Potiowsky says

 

Salem-State Economist Tom Potiowsky told legislators today that the
current economic recovery is one of the "slowest on record," and
projected a decrease of $377.5 million in state revenues since the June
2010 forecast.

 

In his presentation of the September economic and revenue forecast to
the legislature's revenue committees, Potiowsky said the overall
forecast for the 2009-11 biennium is now $1.3 billion below the forecast
issued at the close of the last legislative session. "The prolonged
plunge in personal income taxes more than accounts for the decrease
associated with this forecast," Potiowsky told legislators.

 

Last June's forecast triggered a transfer of money from the state's
Rainy Day Fund, which brings the total available resources to $12.5
billion.  Projected lottery earnings will reach $1.1 billion, an
increase of $4.6 million from the previous forecast, Potiowsky said in
his report.  Lottery revenues have generally stabilized with growth
returning after nearly 18 months of decreases.   

 

The unemployment rate for Oregon sits at 10.6 percent for July,
essentially unchanged for the past nine months.  Potiowsky pointed out
that the unemployment rate tends to be one of the last measurements to
improve as the economy enters recovery.  

 

Manufacturing jobs were flat, while increases occurred in wood product
jobs and other durable goods.  Losses occurred in other sectors,
however.  The service sector showed disappointing job losses in
professional and business services, health services, financial
activities and retail trade.  Some gains did occur in other
service-sector jobs.  

 

"Depending on the outcome of further spending packages from the US
Congress, we may see further large job cuts at the state and local
government levels," Potiowsky reported.  "The expected slowdown in US
economic growth due to slowing stimulus spending and winding down of
manufacturing inventory cycle is similarly impacting the Oregon economy.
Given the rather lackluster employment picture, saying the recession is
over gives little solace to those still looking for work."

 

Note:  The full text of the September Economic and Revenue Forecast is
available at:

 

 http://www.oregon.gov/DAS/OEA/index.shtml

 

 

-30-

 

 

 

 

Lonn Hoklin

Public Affairs Manager

Oregon Department of Administrative Services

503-378-2627

503-428-2169 (cell)

Data Classification: Level 1-Published

 

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