SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, November 8, 2010       2:35 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638


    TUESDAY
A small, fast moving upper low moves across the southern Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.  The low supports a Pacific cold front which will bring rain to the region much of the day.  Rain spreads east during the late morning or early afternoon.  Amounts should be one-third of an inch or less and the snow level should be around 4000 feet.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)
*** Marginal Ventilation Conditions Wednesday ***
The upper low moves rapidly east and the atmosphere becomes increasingly stable as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  Light and variable winds, together with low mixing heights by afternoon will lead to marginal smoke dispersal conditions for Tuesday.
The upper ridge axis moves over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night and by Thursday an upper disturbance moves across the eastern Pacific and into northwest Washington and southern British Columbia.  The strength and exact track of this disturbance are difficult to assess at this point.  If it should stay farther north than forecast then the mixing heights shown below are too optimistic.  For now I will go with significant improvement and better burning conditions for Thursday.
On Friday a broad flat ridge has set up over the Pacific Northwest.  Expect little change in maximum mixing heights and a generally west to northwest transport wind.



2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY



Zone 630 and 632:



Transport wind S to SSW at 20 - 36 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon and decreases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the evening.



Surface wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning.  Surface wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and decreases to SW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the evening.





Zone 633 - 638:



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning.  Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning.  Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon and evening.





OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft throughout the day.  In the west transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming NNW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  In the east transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.



FRIDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 9, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Zone 630 and 632:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the S through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the S through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.



Zone 633 - 638:

Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SSE through SSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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