SMI Northeast (Smoke Management Instructions) Northeast Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, November 12, 2010       2:35 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR NORTHEAST FORECAST AREA ZONES 630-638



SATURDAY



A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify offshore.  A warm front will track along a strong jet stream, on the north side of the ridge, and drop into the Pacific Northwest.  Skies should become mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain by the afternoon.  Rainfall totals should be less than one-tenth of an inch.  The snow level will slowly rise to above 5000 feet.  Warming aloft will suppress mixing heights with marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The warm front is forecast to dissipate over Oregon on Sunday, as the offshore upper-level ridge continues to build.  The flow aloft will turn from northwesterly to more northerly and begin to dry out. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a chance of light rain.  The snow level will rise to near 7,000 feet.  Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with continued marginal to poor smoke dispersion.



The offshore ridge will begin to flatten on Monday, allowing a weak weather system to slide down the southern British Columbia coastline.  That will maintain considerable clouds and a slight chance of showers, with the snow level staying near 7000 feet.  Ventilation conditions should improve to marginal to fair.



Strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Tuesday with a weak and transitory ridge limiting shower activity.  Skies will be partly cloudy with snow levels dropping to around 5000 feet.  Smoke dispersal conditions should improve to fair to good.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1600 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2300 to 3300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 3700 to 4700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR NORTHEAST OREGON ZONES 630-638

    The following considerations should be adhered to in addition to

    the requirements of the Oregon Smoke Management Plan. These

    Instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 13, 2010.

    ==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.



    =========================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)-

    945-7401. Please call this number and not individual's

    numbers to discuss daily burning.  For large burns (over

    2000 tons) or burns extending over a considerable period,

    please request a special forecast.  Avoid calling before

    8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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