SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, June 17, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



    FRIDAY


A cool upper-level trough will remain over Washington and Oregon.  Another disturbance will rotate into the trough, from off the southern British Columbia coastline, and take up residence just off the northern Oregon coast.  That will maintain a cool and moist southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.

Some sunshine will allow temperatures to recover close to normal.  However, daytime heating will combine with cool air aloft and the approaching weather disturbance to destabilize the atmosphere.  The chance of showers and thundershowers will increase in the late afternoon and evening.  Mixing heights should be high in the afternoon. The chance of showers or thunderstorms will continue to increase through the night and into Saturday.

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

An upper-level disturbance will move onshore and over western Oregon Saturday with southwesterly flow aloft continuing the chance of showers or thundershowers across south-central Oregon.  High temperatures should cool back to around 10 degrees below normal with transport winds turning more onshore in the afternoon and evening.  The disturbance is forecast to move across Oregon Sunday with the flow aloft turning more westerly.  The main shower threat should push just north of the region, but showers are still possible, especially north.  High temperatures should remain well below normal with continued onshore flow at the transport level.  The onshore flow will relax with transport winds turning more northerly on Monday, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves over Oregon.  Skies should become mostly sunny with temperatures recovering close to normal.  High afternoon mixing heights are expected during the outlook period.


2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.  Mixing height lowers to 1500 - 2500 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW and increases to 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon then shifts to NW to N at 10 - 20 mph during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon and evening.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 4500 - 5000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, June 18, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through N of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 20 miles to the SW through N in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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