SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, November 1, 2010       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


    TUESDAY
*** Marginal Smoke Dispersal Conditions ***
A strong high pressure area will be centered over Las Vegas, Nevada on Tuesday while a major trough develops about 1000 miles to the west in the Gulf of Alaska and eastern Pacific Ocean.  Upper flow over the area will be west-southwest with very stable conditions developing.  Expect dry weather and partly cloudy skies.  Mixing heights will be suppressed and transport winds will be mostly light and variable.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
*** Marginal or Occasionally Poor Ventilation Conditions Through the Week ***
By Wednesday the upper high looses strength and drifts east.  Flow aloft backs to southwest.  Transport winds switch to southeast through east most areas.  Maximum mixing heights remain low and nighttime inversions will hold any residual smoke close to the ground.  The upper ridge re-strengthens on Thursday for continued low maximum mixing heights and unfavorable ventilation conditions.   An upper disturbance moving through on Friday will lift maximum mixing heights to more favorable levels.



2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1400 - 2400 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 2000 - 3000 ft then lowers to 1000 - 1700 ft during the evening.



Transport wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to ENE to ESE at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon and evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Surface wind increases to ENE to ESE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning lowering below 1000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 - 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning rising to 4500 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 2, 2010.

==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10:00am.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles to the NE through SE of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles to the NE through SSE in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRAs if burning in any other direction.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 3:30pm.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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