SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Saturday, November 6, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SUNDAY



A cold front will likely spread rain across the region in the morning.  Rain will turn to showers in the afternoon. Rainfall totals will mostly range from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch and locally up to one-half inch.  Afternoon highs will be near 10 degrees below average.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be good, but watch for southwesterly transport winds to become more westerly in the afternoon.  Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to around 5000 feet by evening and 4500 feet overnight.


OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)


Some showers will continue Monday, mainly over the mountains, with a drier northwesterly flow aloft bringing some clearing late in the day.  Snow levels will remain near 4500 feet with afternoon surface temperatures about 10 degrees below normal.  Transport winds will be mostly westerly with fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.



Partial clearing is likely Tuesday, with the next weather system not coming onshore until Tuesday afternoon.  Smoke dispersion should be fair to good with southwesterly transport winds.  Previous computer model forecasts showed this next system headed mainly into southern Oregon and northern California, but the latest guidance aims it more directly at Oregon.  That will spread rain and snow back across the region by Tuesday night with snow levels near 4000 feet.



Rain and snow showers should quickly taper off Wednesday, as the weather system moves into the Rockies.  The snow level will rise to around 5000 feet.  Transport winds will be mostly westerly with fair smoke dispersal conditions.



2.  DISPERSION



SUNDAY

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft during the morning.  Mixing height rises to above 5000 ft during the afternoon then lowers to 1700 - 2700 ft during the evening.



Transport wind WSW to W at 15 - 29 mph during the morning.  Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon then decreases to WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning.  Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon then decreases to W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the evening.



OUTLOOK:



MONDAY

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft during the morning rising to 4000 - 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3500 - 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 18 - 32 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning rising to 3000 - 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 7, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 10 miles to the WSW through NW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 15 miles to the WSW through NW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Watch for shifting transport winds.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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