SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, November 8, 2010       2:40 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625


    TUESDAY
A small, fast moving upper low moves across the southern Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.  The low supports a Pacific cold front which will bring rain to the region much of the day.  Rain spreads east during the late morning or early afternoon.  Amounts should be one-third of an inch or less and the snow level should be around 4000 feet.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY)
*** Marginal Ventilation Conditions Wednesday ***
The upper low moves rapidly east and the atmosphere becomes increasingly stable as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  Light and variable winds, together with low mixing heights by afternoon will lead to marginal smoke dispersal conditions for Tuesday.
The upper ridge axis moves over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night and by Thursday an upper disturbance moves across the eastern Pacific and into northwest Washington and southern British Columbia.  The strength and exact track of this disturbance are difficult to assess at this point.  If it should stay farther north than forecast then the mixing heights shown below are too optimistic.  For now I will go with significant improvement and better burning conditions for Thursday.
On Friday a broad flat ridge has set up over the Pacific Northwest.  Expect little change in maximum mixing heights and a generally west to northwest transport wind.



2.  DISPERSION



TUESDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning.  Afternoon and evening mixing rises to 3300 - 4300 ft.



Transport wind SSW to SW at 18 - 30 mph during the morning.  Transport wind increases to SW to WSW at 25 - 43 mph during the afternoon then decreases to SW to W at 22 - 38 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft during the morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 - 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 9, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through WSW of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 12 miles to the SW through WNW in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  Care needed in selecting units as smoke will likely fumigate along the ground in wind prone areas.  No additional restrictions necessary.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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