SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

ODF Smoke Management Instructions smi_south_central at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Fri Nov 12 14:45:29 PST 2010


SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Friday, November 12, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



SATURDAY



A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify offshore.  A warm front will track along a strong jet stream, on the north side of the ridge, and drop into the Pacific Northwest.  Skies should become mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain in the afternoon.  The snow level will slowly rise to above 7000 feet.  Warming aloft will suppress mixing heights with marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.


OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The warm front is forecast to dissipate over Oregon on Sunday, as the offshore upper-level ridge continues to build.  The flow aloft will turn from northwesterly to more northerly and begin to dry out. Skies should remain mostly cloudy with a slight chance of light rain.  The snow level will rise to near 8,000 feet.  Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with continued marginal to poor smoke dispersal conditions.



The offshore ridge will begin to flatten on Monday, allowing a weak weather system to slide down the southern British Columbia coastline.  That will maintain at least partly cloudy skies, but it should stay dry with the snow level remaining near 8000 feet.  Ventilation conditions should remain marginal to poor.



Strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Tuesday with a weak and transitory ridge allowing for more afternoon sunshine.  The snow level will drop to around 6000 feet, with cooling aloft and daytime heating improving smoke dispersal conditions to fair.



2.  DISPERSION



SATURDAY

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 1700 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises to 1500 - 2500 ft then lowers below 1000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain during the morning.  Transport wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon then becomes light and variable during the evening.



Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.



MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning rising to 2000 - 3000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1700 - 2700 ft by late morning rising to 2700 - 3700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Saturday, November 13, 2010.

==================================================================



Unfavorable burning situation due to very poor smoke dispersion.  Delay ignitions until 10 a.m.  Avoid ignitions within 20 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 35 miles in all directions of SSRAs.  Recommend against burning units that will smolder significantly overnight.  Complete ignitions by 2:30 p.m.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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