SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) South Central Smoke Management Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Thursday, November 18, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR SOUTH CENTRAL OREGON ZONES 624 AND 625



FRIDAY



The axis of a cold upper-level trough will remain just offshore with a moist and very strong west-southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  Impulses dropping southward into the trough will act to maintain a weak surface low-pressure area off the Washington coast.  Circulation around that system will feed ample moisture onshore for scattered rain and snow showers.  Cold air aloft will keep the snow level in the 3000-3500 foot range. Expect good smoke dispersal conditions with south to southwesterly transport winds.


OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

A fairly strong upper-air disturbance will deepen the offshore trough, with both a surface and upper-air circulation center forecast to strengthen and drift southward, to just off the southern Oregon coast, by Saturday evening.  A moist southwesterly flow aloft will maintain mostly cloudy skies with some rain and snow showers.  The snow level will drop to between 2500 and 3000 feet.  Transport winds should remain southwesterly with good smoke dispersal conditions.



On Sunday, the offshore trough will get forced inland, across northern California, with some rain and snow showers likely circulating northward over the region.  Snow levels will drop to between 2000 and 2500 feet.  Expect fair to good smoke dispersal conditions with transport winds turning more westerly.



By Monday, the flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly, in response to a cold upper-level system dropping southward from British Columbia.  The track of this system is still uncertain, but it should produce at least some showers.  It appears likely that it will usher the coldest air of the season into the region with any precipitation falling in the form of snow.  Smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good with west to northwesterly transport winds.



2.  DISPERSION



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.  Afternoon mixing height rises above 5000 ft then lowers to 2000 - 3000 ft during the evening.



Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph during the morning and afternoon.  Transport wind decreases to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the evening.



Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.



OUTLOOK:



SATURDAY

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.



SUNDAY

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming W to NW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.



MONDAY

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ZONES 624 AND 625 INCLUDING THE WALKER

    RANGE PORTION OF ZONE 624

This instruction is valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 19, 2010.

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Avoid ignitions within 12 miles to the SW through W of SSRAs.  For units that will smolder significantly through the night avoid burning within at least 12 miles to the S through W in or near drainages leading to SSRAs.  No additional restrictions necessary.



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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    The smoke management forecaster is available at (503)

    945-7401.  The smoke management forecaster is available

    to discuss specific burns.  The duty forecaster phone

    number is (503) 945-7401. Please call this number and

    not individual's numbers to discuss daily burning. Please

    avoid calling before 8 a.m. and between 2 to 3 p.m.



    This forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

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