SMI South Central (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY



ISSUED: Monday, November 22, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623


    TUESDAY

An upper level trough, oriented NE to SW moves southeastward across the region on Tuesday.  This supports a cold front - the leading edge of modified arctic air - as it also sweeps across the region Monday night and early Tuesday morning.  This front will usher in cooler temperatures for mid week.  Low elevation snow will fall as the front passes through, then drier air will filter southward to end any precipitation.  Monday evening totals in the lowlands of northwest Oregon will still be on the ground early Tuesday morning.  Estimates as of Monday afternoon are one-half to one and one-half inches.  In the south, the Rogue Valley can expect some snow during the day on Tuesday with about one to two inches likely.  Mountain areas in western Oregon should get 3 to 5 inches of new snow.  Temperatures will fall during the day with the highest temperatures most areas occurring mid-morning.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be generally fair, but northern zones will see just light and variable, mainly northerly, winds with southern sections seeing northwesterly winds most of the day.

   EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)

By Wednesday upper level flow is northerly, cold, and generally dry over the Pacific Northwest.  Scattered snow showers are still possible, however.  The cold surface temperatures and sinking air aloft will limit maximum mixing heights and smoke dispersal conditions will be marginal at best.  An upper ridge axis passes through early Thursday and upper flow backs to more westerly.  Maximum mixing heights should improve in the north but deteriorate in the south.  On Friday a strong westerly flow aloft over the eastern Pacific and the Pacific Northwest will push a Pacific cold front into northwestern Oregon early in the day.  As this system moves east it will bring rain to much of the state.  The wet system will hit the north coast first, then spread rain south and east, with precipitation reaching Grants pass by late in the afternoon.  The snow level with this front will be around 4000 feet.



2.  DISPERSION



Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind increases to N to S at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 1600 - 2600 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2100 to 3100 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2100 to 3100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 23, 2010.

=================================================================



Coast Range



Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.



Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.





Cascades



Zone 605, 606, and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)



Zone 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.



Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 620

No burning allowed.





Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.



    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml





5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:



  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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