SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Nov 12 16:35:39 PST 2009

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, November 12, 2009       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

Upper level low is moving out to the east today and will allow for some clearing skies this afternoon and evening.  However, the next front and trough will quickly move into the state tomorrow morning bringing another round of moisture.  Snow level will remain quite low with snow down to 2000 - 3000 ft during the day Friday, dropping to 1000 - 2000 ft Friday night.  Air mass will be mostly unstable, and with brisk SW to NW flow, will make for good to excellent smoke dispersion.

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY - MONDAY)

Upper level trough moves by to the east leaving the region under chilly northerly flow Saturday.  Upper level ridge moves in later Saturday, stabilizing the air mass.  Ridge moves overhead early Sunday but warm front overrunning moisture will likely bring some light rain to mainly the northern part of the state.  Ridge will move by to the east with a cold front approaching later Monday.  Air mass will stabilize Saturday and remain mostly stable through the period.  Wind flow will become light and variable Saturday, then as the ridge moves through Sunday and Monday, winds will increase from the S to SW.  Smoke dispersion will be fair Saturday and Sunday then improve Monday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind WNW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind W to NW at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind WNW to NW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising above 5000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind WSW to WNW at 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W to NW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind shifts to W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind decreases to W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

SUNDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY
Mixing height 1200 to 2200 ft during the morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 22 - 40 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, November 13, 2009.
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Coast Range

All Zones
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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