SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Mon Oct 12 14:29:20 PDT 2009

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, October 12, 2009       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

A fairly deep surface low pressure area moves up from the southwest then tracks northward about 250 miles west of the Oregon/Washington coast on Tuesday.  This does not look like a big wind producer but winds will be a bit gusty on the coast.  Rain spreads across the region during the morning and continues through the afternoon and evening.  Amounts will be significant, greatest since last spring most areas, however the heaviest rains will actually move into northern California.  Mixing heights will initially be suppressed somewhat in northern zones due to warm air aloft streaming north ahead of the Pacific system.

OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY)

Expect post-frontal showers on Wednesday.  Snow levels should be 7000 feet or above.  Mixing heights should be quite high for good smoke dispersal conditions.  On Thursday a front moves mainly into northwest Oregon and western Washington.  Expect rain in the north and showers in the south.  Another Pacific front drags across northwest Oregon for rain there Friday.  This system sags southward and stalls Friday night bringing rain to most of western Oregon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind ESE at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind ENE to ESE at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind decreases to ESE to SSE at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind decreases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind increases to SE to SSE at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.
Transport wind ESE to SE at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind E to SE at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind ESE to SSE at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SSE to S at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind shifts to NNW to NE at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind SSE at 20 - 34 mph.
Surface wind SE to S at 15 - 29 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height above 5000 ft.
Transport wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 13 - 25 mph.
Surface wind decreases to SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind SE to S at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind SE to S at 8 - 14 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY
Mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY
Mixing height 1700 to 2700 ft during the morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

FRIDAY
Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, October 13, 2009.
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Coast Range

All Zones
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606
Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607 and 608
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 617, and 623
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 620 and 622
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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