SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sun Oct 25 14:37:41 PDT 2009

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 25, 2009       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

A Pacific weather front moves through the region Sunday night followed by another surge of moisture Monday morning.  Expect wet weather all of western Oregon during the day.  Amounts of one inch are possible.  Cooler air aloft filters in behind these weather systems and snow levels lower to below the Cascade passes.  Snow amounts of 10 inches are possible above about 4000 feet by Tuesday morning.  Mixing heights should provide for fair smoke dispersal conditions most areas.

    OUTLOOK (TUESDAY-THURSDAY)

An upper level ridge builds in the eastern Pacific.  Post frontal showers continue on Tuesday.  By Wednesday just widely scattered showers are likely.  Mixing heights remain high enough for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.  The ridge in the eastern Pacific pushes the next surface low well to the north into southeast Alaska, but a warm front extends southward from that low and clips Washington and Oregon for some light rain in much of western Oregon on Thursday.  Warmer air aloft will suppress mixing heights somewhat, but smoke dispersal conditions still look generally marginal to fair for the end of the week.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.
Transport wind NW to NNW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind shifts to WSW to W at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind NW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind shifts to WNW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SSW to WSW and decreases to 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.
Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.
Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.
Transport wind becomes light and variable.
Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING
Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.
Transport wind increases to WNW to NW at 10 - 20 mph.
Surface wind increases to W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.
Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.
Surface wind shifts to NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.
Transport wind shifts to W to NW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind shifts to WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY
In the north mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to N at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, October 26, 2009.
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Coast Range

***Complete ignitions by 4:00pm in Zone 602 and 603.***

Zone 601 and 612
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603
Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 620
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 611
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622
No burning allowed.

Siskiyous
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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