SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Apr 15 14:33:20 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, April 15, 2010       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

****Due to the state furlough day tomorrow, April 16th, the office will not be staffed.  We plan to staff the office on Saturday and Sunday, April 17th and 18th and on the weekends from now on through the spring burning season.****

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

Upper level low is in the eastern Pacific with a high pressure ridge to the east of the state.  The low will continue to bring disturbances toward the region Friday with a chance of afternoon showers or thundershowers.  Air mass will remain mostly unstable under seasonally warm, southerly flow aloft.  Expect mostly good smoke dispersion.

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY - MONDAY)

Weather pattern changes little on Saturday from Friday's pattern.  A few showers are possible over the coastal region but unlikely anywhere else.  Upper level low moves closer to the state Sunday with increasing clouds Sunday and the chance of moisture Sunday evening.  Upper level low will continue to move in Monday with more moisture over the region through Monday.  Air mass stabilizes on Saturday, then destabilizes Sunday afternoon and through Monday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind light and variable but favors SSE to SSW.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW and increases to 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind SSE to SW at 6 - 10 mph.
Surface wind SSE to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW and increases to 15 - 25 mph.
Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 3000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.
Transport wind light and variable but favors SSE to SSW.
Surface wind light and variable but favors SSE to SSW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.
Surface wind increases to S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SSE to SSW and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY
In the north mixing height 3800 to 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 2500 to 3500 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 22 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming S to SW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY
Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, April 16, 2010.
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For Friday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602, 603, and 620
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W
Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619
Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 611
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

For Saturday:

Coast Range