SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Apr 29 14:12:03 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, April 29, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    FRIDAY

A strong northwesterly flow aloft will begin to dry things out, but the air mass will remain unstable enough for daytime heating to trigger a few showers...mainly over the northern mountains.  Snow levels will start out near 3000 feet and rise to around 3500-4000 feet in the afternoon.  Surface temperatures will remain well below normal.  Maximum mixing heights will rise above 5000 feet for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

An upper-level ridge will build closer to the coastline Saturday and Sunday, with slowly weakening northwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface.  There is only a slight chance of an afternoon shower, mainly over the northern mountains, on Saturday.  A weak warm front will likely bring some clouds and perhaps some sprinkles to the northern zones Sunday. Early morning mixing will be poor, but daytime heating and continued strong onshore flow should provide fair to good afternoon smoke dispersion Saturday and fair smoke dispersion on Sunday.  The snow level will slowly rise to about 5-6000 feet, by Sunday afternoon, with surface temperatures recovering to near normal.  A cold front is forecast to bring more rain and cooler temperatures Monday, with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet Monday afternoon.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 4400 - 5000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind decreases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 2000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to N at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind decreases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height 1500 to 2500 ft during the morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 13 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 10 - 20 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising to 3800 to 4800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, April 30, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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