SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Forecast and Instruction

Fri Apr 30 13:59:18 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, April 30, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SATURDAY

A cool northwesterly flow aloft will direct a weak weather system across Washington and Oregon. Skies will be mostly cloudy with light morning rain in the northern zones and a chance of showers in the southern zones. Some drying is expected late in the day.  Snow levels will stay near just 4000 feet.  Surface temperatures will remain well below normal.  The weak cold front should keep the atmosphere well-mixed in the early morning.  Maximum mixing heights will rise above 5000 feet for good afternoon smoke dispersal conditions

    OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

An upper-level ridge will build closer to the coastline Sunday, with weakening northwesterly flow aloft and onshore flow at the surface.  A weak warm front will likely bring some clouds and perhaps some sprinkles to the extreme northern zones Sunday. A stabilizing air mass may create poor early morning mixing, but daytime heating should provide fair to good smoke dispersion, by Sunday afternoon, with the snow level slowly rising to about 6000 feet.  Surface temperatures should recover to near normal.  A cold front is forecast to bring more rain and mountain snow Monday, with snow levels dropping to 4000 feet Monday afternoon.  Tuesday looks very cool and unstable with numerous showers and a good chance of afternoon thunderstorms.  Smoke dispersal should be good both afternoons, but temperatures will be unseasonably cool with strong onshore flow.  The snow level could drop to around 2000 feet on Tuesday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.
Transport wind SW at 19 - 33 mph.
Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to WNW to NW at 18 - 30 mph.
Surface wind shifts to WNW to NW and increases to 12 - 22 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2300 - 3300 ft.
Transport wind NW at 18 - 32 mph.
Surface wind NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind SW at 22 - 40 mph.
Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind W at 20 - 36 mph.
Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.
Transport wind W to NW at 18 - 30 mph.
Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.
Transport wind WSW to W at 14 - 28 mph.
Surface wind WSW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind shifts to NW to NNW at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind shifts to NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.
Transport wind NW to N at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind WSW to W at 10 - 22 mph.
Surface wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.
Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 18 mph.
Surface wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.
Transport wind NW to NNW at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind NW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY
In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2700 to 3700 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SW to W at 10 - 18 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 10 - 16 mph.

TUESDAY
Mixing height 2300 to 3300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, May 1, 2010.
=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602, 603, and 620
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W
Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 618 and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610, 611, and 622
Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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