SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Dec 10 14:30:31 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, December 10, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

A strong warm front will spread significant rainfall northward, across western Oregon, beginning in the pre-dawn hours.  The front is forecast to move across southwestern Oregon in the morning and continue northward, across the central zones, during the afternoon.  The front is forecast to push into Washington by early Sunday.

Rainfall will likely become heavy by late-morning, as the main area of rain slowly migrates northward.  1-3 inches of rain are possible over the southern mountains and in the Cascades, with one-quarter to one inch likely in the southern valleys.  Hardest hit will be the northern coastal mountains, where 3-6 inches of rain are possible.  Northern valleys could see 1-3 inches of rain.  The snow level will start out near 4000 feet north and 6000 feet south but rapidly rise to 6000 feet north and above 8000 feet south by midday.

North of the warm front, mixing heights will be low with heavy rain, marginal to poor smoke dispersion, and south to southeasterly transport winds.  Rain will taper off south of the front, with transport winds turning more southwesterly and smoke dispersal conditions improving.  The combination of locally heavy rainfall and rising snow levels will lead to areas of flooding, especially along the northern coastal rivers.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)
The strong warm front should push north of the state by Sunday morning, with the rainfall tapering off.  Central and southern zones may stay mostly dry, while northwestern zones continue to pick up some light rainfall.  The freezing level will rise to near 10,000 feet with balmy surface temperatures.  Smoke dispersion should be fair with south to southwesterly transport winds.

The break from the wet weather will be short-lived, with the related cold front forecast to drop southeastward into northwestern Oregon Sunday night and across the remainder of western Oregon Monday.  Snow levels will remain quite high through Monday morning, and then drop to around 5000 feet north and 7000 feet south by evening.  Afternoon smoke dispersal conditions should be fair to good with continued south to southwesterly transport winds.

Another strong cold front is forecast to bring more rain and wind on Tuesday with snow levels lowering to 3000 north and 4000 feet south.  Smoke dispersal conditions should be good with brisk southwesterly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 800 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to SE at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind increases to S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1300 - 2300 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to SE at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 8 - 14 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 25 - 45 mph.

Surface wind increases to SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 20 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 2400 to 3400 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 4200 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 25 - 45 mph.  Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, December 11 and 12, 2010.

=================================================================

For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T35S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

-------------- next part --------------
An HTML attachment was scrubbed...
URL: <https://omls.oregon.gov/pipermail/smi_west/attachments/20101210/0b14303f/attachment.html>