SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Correction

Mon Dec 13 14:12:29 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, December 13, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY

A strong Pacific front will move through western Oregon overnight Monday night.  Expect gusty winds and heavy rain with the front and lowering snow levels behind.  Rainfall amounts of around an inch are likely by Tuesday morning.  Precipitation will decrease during the afternoon, but by evening snow levels will drop to about 2000 feet in the north and about 2500 feet in the south.  High mixing heights will allow for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions most areas.

    OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)

Upper flow becomes westerly on Wednesday.  Rain and snow will continue but amounts will be light.  The snow level will be near 1000 feet in the morning rising to about 3000 feet in the afternoon.  Some stabilization of the atmosphere will occur limiting mixing heights but ventilation conditions should remain fair to good.  By Thursday precipitation will be limited to extreme northwest Oregon, the air mass will stabilize and smoke dispersal conditions become marginal.  On Friday a disturbance moving from the southwest brings renewed precipitation to the region but also improving ventilation conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 21 - 37 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 12 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WNW at 20 - 34 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3200 - 4200 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SW to WsW at 6-12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3000 to 4000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2200 to 3200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SSE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, December 14, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 615, 616, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, 622, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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