SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Jul 9 14:06:15 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, July 9, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

...PLEASE NOTE...

This will be the last regularly scheduled smoke management forecast for western Oregon for the 2010 spring burning season.  With the hot weather and many areas now in fire season we do not anticipate any significant prescribed burning form this point through the summer.  Clearances for any burning still planned can be handled individually with a phone call to the duty forecaster at 503-945-7401.  Smoke management forecasts and instructions will resume this fall when conditions are again conducive to prescribed burning.

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SATURDAY

The strong upper-level ridge of high pressure that has been over the Pacific Northwest will shift offshore with an increasing north to northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon.  That will turn the low-level winds weakly onshore and initiate a cooling trend across the interior of western Oregon. Morning marine low clouds could penetrate through some of the coastal mountain gaps with mostly sunny skies expected in the afternoon.  Temperatures will remain well above normal but will back away from the near-record highs of the past three days.  The cooler marine air will act to suppress afternoon mixing heights across the coastal range, but afternoon mixing heights should remain relatively high over the Cascades.  Smoke dispersal conditions will be fair to good.

     OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The upper-level ridge axis will remain offshore with a continued dry northwesterly flow aloft during the extended forecast period and perhaps through all of next week.  A fairly strong trough is forecast to cut across southern British Columbia on Monday, which will drive a dry cold front through the region.  Increasing onshore transport winds will lower temperatures to near normal and maintain mildly suppressed mixing heights west of the Cascades.  Onshore surface winds could become quite gusty across the eastern zones Monday afternoon.  Other than a chance of morning drizzle over the northern coastal range, dry conditions should prevail with afternoon clearing each day.  Expect fair to good smoke dispersal conditions during the outlook period.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to NNW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 and 616-623 (North and South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors NW to NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind N to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3900 to 4900 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3700 to 4700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2400 to 3400 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind NW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, July 10 and 11, 2010.

=================================================================

For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S in Zone 616.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

No burning allowed.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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