SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu Jun 10 14:10:55 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, June 10, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    FRIDAY

A fairly weak upper-level ridge will build just offshore with the flow aloft drying and turning north-northwesterly.  That will finally put an end to the long stretch of unseasonably wet weather.  A few showers could persist through the morning, in the northern zones, with skies clearing across all zones during the afternoon.  Transport winds will turn mostly northerly.  Surface temperatures will warm to just slightly below normal.  The air aloft will also be warming, which will likely cap afternoon mixing heights between 4000 and 5000 feet.  Clearing skies will allow temperatures and mixing heights to quickly drop after sunset, so residual smoke may settle near the ground.

    OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

An upper-level ridge will move over western Oregon Saturday for dry and warmer conditions.  Transport winds will turn offshore with surface temperatures warming to about 5-10 degrees above normal.  A mostly dry cold front is forecast to push the northern portion of the ridge well east of the Cascades by Sunday afternoon.  A return to onshore flow will likely cool northern zone temperatures a few degrees, but southern zones may see a few more degrees of warming with mostly northerly transport winds.  Onshore flow is forecast to increase across all zones by Monday with temperatures cooling back to near normal south and to slightly below normal north.  Marine low clouds will likely invade the inland northern zones Monday, west of the Cascade crest, with some drizzle or showers possible along mainly the western slopes of the northern coast and Cascade ranges.  Mostly sunny skies are expected to continue across the southern and eastern zones.  Daytime heating should yield high afternoon mixing heights Saturday and moderate to high mixing heights Sunday and Monday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NNE to NE at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 10 - 20 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1900 to 2900 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind NNE to ENE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 to 4100 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2000 to 3000 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NNW to N at 10 - 20 mph.  Surface wind NW to N at 8 - 14 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, June 11, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 616 west of R8W, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 617

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T30S units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 623

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T36S, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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