SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Jun 18 14:23:20 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, June 18, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    SATURDAY

A broad and cool upper-level trough will remain over Washington and Oregon.  The center of an upper-level disturbance, embedded within the broad trough, will slowly sag southward just off the Oregon coast.  The counterclockwise circulation around it will produce a moist and somewhat unstable south-southwesterly flow aloft over the state.  Showers are likely with increasing onshore flow, at the transport level, cooling temperatures back to well below normal.  Limited daytime heating, combined with cool air aloft, will yield moderately high afternoon mixing heights.  The snow level will drop to as low as 6000 feet by evening.

    OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The center of the embedded upper-level disturbance will move over southwestern Oregon early Sunday and slowly progress eastward, to over southeastern Oregon, by Sunday evening.  Considerable moisture will continue to wrap around the exiting upper-level disturbance, keeping skies mostly cloudy across western Oregon.  The snow level will hover near 6500 feet, but showers will taper off later in the day, as the flow aloft turns northwesterly and begins to stabilize the air mass.  Transport winds will slowly turn more northerly, especially across the southwestern zones.  High temperatures will remain well below normal.

A weak and transitory upper-level ridge will move over western Oregon Monday and drift eastward, to over eastern Oregon, on Tuesday.  Progressively more sunshine will help temperatures recover to near normal by Tuesday.  Transport winds will turn more northerly and perhaps offshore by Tuesday morning, even across the northern zones.  That could present some burning opportunities for western zones.  Moderate to high afternoon mixing heights are expected during the outlook period.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2000 - 3000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1500 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors W to N and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1600 to 2600 ft during the morning rising to 3600 to 4600 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NNE at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, June 19, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W in Zone 622, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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