SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Wed May 26 14:29:02 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, May 26, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

THURSDAY
A strong upper-level trough will remain over the region with the center of circulation just off the northern California coastline.  That will maintain a moist and unstable southerly flow aloft over Oregon with numerous showers.  Cool air aloft should allow for high mixing heights and good smoke dispersal conditions but may also lead to afternoon and evening thunderstorm development.  Maximum temperatures will remain well below normal.  The snow level will hover around 5000 feet.

    OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)

The upper-level trough axis is forecast to shift east of the Cascades Friday with the flow aloft turning northerly and beginning to dry out.  Showers will taper off with some afternoon clearing, especially south.  Maximum temperatures will remain well below normal with the snow level staying near 5000 feet.  Cool air aloft will maintain good daytime smoke dispersal conditions.  A transitory and weak upper-level ridge is forecast to bring dry weather to western Oregon Saturday and much of Sunday.  That will lead to overnight temperature inversions, but daytime smoke dispersal conditions will likely remain fair to good.  Another weather system is slated to come onshore Sunday night with a renewed chance of rain, mainly north.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 - 3500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to W to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3500 - 4500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind shifts to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to NW and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 6 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising to 3500 to 4500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NW to N at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3200 to 4200 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, May 27, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T35S in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except Zone 610 and 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T15S through T20S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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