SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Nov 8 14:42:43 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 8, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY
A small, fast moving upper low moves across the southern Gulf of Alaska and into the Pacific Northwest on Tuesday.  The low supports a Pacific cold front which will bring rain to the region much of the day.  Precipitation amounts will range from near two-thirds of an inch in the north to about one-third of an inch or less in the south.  The snow level will be near 3500 feet in the north and 4000 feet in the south following frontal passage.  Expect southwest to south transport winds.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
*** Marginal Ventilation Conditions Wednesday ***
The upper low moves rapidly east and the atmosphere becomes increasingly stable as an upper ridge builds over the eastern Pacific.  Light and variable winds, together with low mixing heights by afternoon, mean few burning opportunities for Wednesday.
The upper ridge axis moves over the Pacific Northwest on Wednesday night and by Thursday an upper disturbance moves across the eastern Pacific and into northwest Washington and southern British Columbia.  The strength and exact track of this disturbance are difficult to assess at this point.  If it should stay farther north than forecast then the mixing heights shown below are too optimistic.  For now I will go with significant improvement and better burning conditions for Thursday.
On Friday a broad flat ridge has set up over the Pacific Northwest.  Surface gradients turn northerly for potential opportunities for units requiring northerly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 20 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to S at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to S at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to S at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to W at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W at 8 - 14 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 1400 to 2400 ft during the morning lowering to 1000 to 1700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport NNW to NNE 4-9.  Surface wind light and variable but favoring northerly.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 9, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615, 616, 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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