SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Sat Nov 13 14:38:05 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Saturday, November 13, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SUNDAY

A broad upper-level ridge will continue to amplify just offshore.  A warm front is forecast to slowly weaken over Oregon, as the flow aloft turns from northwesterly to more northerly and begins to dry out. Skies should remain cloudy with areas of light rain, mainly north and west.  Look for rainfall totals to be less than one-tenth of an inch.  The snow level will rise to near 10,000 feet.  Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights suppressed with light winds making for generally poor smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (MONDAY-WEDNESDAY)

The offshore ridge will begin to flatten on Monday, allowing a weak weather system to slide down the southern British Columbia coastline.  That will increase the chance of rain across northern zones by the afternoon.  Southern zones will mostly stay dry but with considerable clouds and areas of morning valley fog.  The snow level should drop to about 8000 feet north and 9000 feet south late with marginal to fair ventilation conditions.

Strong northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for Tuesday with a weak weather system likely bringing some showers north in the morning.  A transitory ridge will decrease the showers in the afternoon.  Snow levels will continue to drop to around 5000 feet north and 7000 feet south.  Smoke dispersal conditions will fair to good.

The flow aloft will turn westerly on Wednesday, as an impressive weather system makes its way southward along the British Columbia coastline.  Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy with the snow level dropping to 4000 feet north and 6000 feet south.  Increasing southerly winds and cooling aloft will make for fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind light and variable but favors S to W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1300 - 2300 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 1500 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

MONDAY

Mixing height 1000 to 2000 ft during the morning rising to 2400 to 3400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2800 to 3800 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind WNW to NW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind WSW to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 8 - 14 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Sunday, November 14, 2010.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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