SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Corrected - Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Wed Nov 17 14:45:46 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

***Corrected Discussion and South Cascades Transport Winds***

ISSUED: Wednesday, November 17, 2010       2:40 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

THURSDAY

A vigorous cold front will move east of northern zones in the pre-dawn hours and continue southeastward across the southern zones by midday.  Blustery winds will taper off and steady precipitation will turn to showers, from north to south, in the wake of the front.  A very cold upper-level trough will drop southward along the British Columbia coastline, to just off the Pacific Northwest coast, with strong westerly flow aloft developing over Oregon.  Snow levels will rapidly drop with accumulating snow likely above about 2000 feet north and 3000 feet south.  Expect good smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)

A very cold upper-level trough will remain over the region during the outlook period with generally fair to good smoke dispersal conditions.

A surface low-pressure center will slowly sag southward, to just off the central Oregon coast, on Friday, with southwesterly transport winds backing to southeasterly across the northern zones.  Snow levels will hold at near 2000 feet north and drop to about 2500 feet south with showers, mainly over higher terrain.  Little change in the overall pattern is forecast for Saturday and Sunday, with snow levels slowly dropping to around 1000 feet north and 2000 feet south by Sunday.  Transport winds will likely maintain a southerly component.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind SSE to SW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height 3100 to 4100 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height 2100 to 3100 ft during the morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.  Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1800 to 2800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, November 18, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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