SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Tue Nov 23 14:32:24 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Tuesday, November 23, 2010       2:30 PM      Nick Yonker

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

Arctic air drove down from the north last night and early this morning and will set up shop for the next couple of days before gradually moderating.  Air mass is moderately unstable today but as the surface temperatures cool tonight, strong temperature inversions will form and limit mixing overnight.  As the upper ridge off the coast slowly moves in the air will slowly warm aloft.  With chilly air near the surface, this will make for mostly poor mixing Wednesday.  Wind flow will also be quite light under little pressure gradients.  Thus smoke dispersion will be quite poor.

    OUTLOOK (THURSDAY - SATURDAY)

A flattening upper level ridge builds in on Thanksgiving bringing warming temperatures aloft and near the surface.  Another front will approach from the Pacific bringing increasing clouds and the chance of rain by Thursday evening.  Snow level will lift to near 4000 - 5000 ft.  Cold front moves through on Friday and will be followed by a chilly and unstable upper level trough on Saturday.  Snow level will lower to near 2000 ft.  Air mass will remain stable through Friday before destabilizing on Saturday.  Wind flow will increase from the SE to S on Thursday, turn S to SSW on Friday, and then decrease and turn more SW to W on Saturday.  Smoke dispersion will be poor Thursday, improving Friday, and good to excellent on Saturday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E to S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SE to S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 - 2800 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable but favors E to S and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors E to S and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind increases to E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 - 2500 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to S at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to S at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.  Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 14 mph.

SATURDAY

Mixing height 3800 to 4800 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SSW to W at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Wednesday, November 24, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 400 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from nearby SSRAs.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

No burning allowed.  Small tonnage units are possible at least 10 miles away from SSRAs.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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