SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Nov 29 14:28:52 PST 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, November 29, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY
The upper ridge that was over the region Monday moves east on Tuesday leaving southwesterly flow aloft over the Pacific Northwest.  An active pacific front will slowly move in during the day.  Rainfall will begin Monday evening in the north but not reach southwest Oregon until Tuesday afternoon.  In the north precipitation amounts should range from about three-quarters of an inch to about an inch.  Only light rain (less than about .15) is likely Tuesday afternoon in southern sections.  Ahead of the front the snow level will be around 5000 feet, but as the front passes through snow levels will drop to around 3000 feet.  Mixing heights should be quite high and fairly strong southerly transport winds will develop ahead of the front.  Thus smoke dispersal conditions should be good most areas.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)
The front will stall on a line from NE Oregon to NW California on Wednesday.  Subsidence behind the front will limit maximum mixing heights and winds will go light.  Smoke dispersal conditions will drop to just fair.  On Thursday a wave forms on the front off the northern California coast which will increase rainfall in SW Oregon again.  Mixing heights will improve in the south but drop even farther in the north.  Northern zones will see just marginal ventilation conditions Thursday.  The front loses strength and moves to the east on Friday and the air mass remains stable in the north and stabilizes in the south so that all zones will see only marginal conditions by Friday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 14 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 16 - 30 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 13 - 25 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2800 - 3800 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind S to SSW at 12 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 10 - 18 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to W at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1800 to 2800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, November 30, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.

Zone 611 and 616

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  In zone 616 avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 617, 620, and 622

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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