SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Oct 1 14:26:39 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, October 1, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

The strong upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest will weaken and continue to slowly shift eastward, with the ridge axis over Idaho and western Montana.  Transport winds will turn mostly northerly with warm air aloft continuing to suppress mixing heights.  Ventilation conditions will be marginal.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

The upper-level ridge will shift into Wyoming and eastern Montana by Sunday, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. The surface thermal trough will progress eastward, into Idaho.  Increasingly onshore transport winds and cooling aloft will improve ventilation conditions.

A cold front will likely bring some light rain to most areas late Sunday and Monday with continued onshore transport winds and good daytime mixing.  Transport winds are forecast to turn northerly by Monday night, and offshore on Tuesday, as a ridge of high pressure begins building back over the west coast.  Inversions are likely Tuesday morning with warming aloft suppressing afternoon mixing heights.

2.  DISPERSION

All Zones:

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 1000 - 2000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to NE and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NNE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind increases to NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind becomes light and variable but favors NW to NE and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1400 to 2400 ft by late morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NNW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2600 to 3600 ft by late morning rising to 4000 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1600 to 2600 ft by late morning rising to 3100 to 4100 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind N to NE at 8 - 12 mph.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, October 2 and 3, 2010.

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For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of Forest Grove/Hillsboro or Sheridan/Willamina in Zone 602.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T17S in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

No burning allowed.

Zone 607, 608, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 602 and 603

No burning allowed.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 620, and 622

No burning allowed.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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