SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Oct 22 14:22:55 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Friday, October 22, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SATURDAY

The second in a series of progressively stronger weather systems will move across western Oregon in the early morning, likely dropping from around one-tenth to one-third of an inch of rain.  The cold front is forecast to push east of the Cascades by late morning with the rain tapering off to a few showers.  Increasing south-southwesterly transport winds and high mixing heights should make for good smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)

A warm front will renew the steady rain across western Oregon Saturday night, followed by a strong cold front early Sunday morning.  Rainfall totals from this system will likely range from around one inch to more than two inches, with the heaviest rain likely on western mountain slopes. The low pressure center is forecast to be quite intense but will remain well offshore.  That will keep highly damaging winds from coming onshore, but the cold front will still produce strong southerly winds, especially over coastal areas.  Gusts to around 60 mph are likely over coastal areas and sections of the coastal range in the pre-dawn hours Sunday.  Blustery southerly winds will extend inland across the region Sunday.

A strong westerly jet stream, aimed right at Oregon, will continue significant shower activity Sunday afternoon through Tuesday, with the snow level dropping from more than 6000 feet early Sunday to below 4000 feet Monday and Tuesday.  Several inches of snow are likely, above 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south, Monday and Tuesday.  Rain and mountain snow showers are forecast to taper off late Tuesday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612 and 615-620 (North and South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 18 - 32 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height remains above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S at 24 - 42 mph.

Surface wind increases to SE to S at 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind S at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind S to SSW at 15 - 29 mph.

Surface wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height above 5000 ft throughout the day.  Transport wind SW to SW at 31 - 51 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 25 - 45 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SSW at 16 - 30 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 4100 to 5000 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 20 - 36 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 3300 to 4300 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 36 mph during the morning becoming W to WNW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SSW to SW at 9 - 15 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday, October 23, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA in Zone 605 and 606.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S in Zone 616.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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