SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Wed Oct 27 14:42:08 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, October 27, 2010       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

THURSDAY

The transitory upper-level ridge that was over the region on Wednesday is forecast to rapidly shift eastward to over the northern Rockies.  An approaching upper-level trough is digging southward offshore and is forecast to be centered about 300 miles west of the northern California coast by Thursday afternoon.  A moist south-southwesterly flow aloft will spread rain across the region during the day.  Rainfall totals will likely range from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch, with the greatest totals in the south and west.  The snow level will rise to 5500 feet north and 6500 feet south.  Transport winds will be mostly south to southeasterly with fair smoke dispersal conditions.

OUTLOOK (FRIDAY-SUNDAY)

The upper-level trough will continue digging southward Friday, with the center of circulation forecast to be just off the central and southern California coastline by Friday evening.  Skies will likely remain mostly cloudy, but rain will taper off from north to south.  Additional rainfall totals will be around one-tenth of an inch or less with the greatest amounts in the south.  Transport winds will become south to east and weaken with continued fair smoke dispersal conditions.

An upstream trough will act as a kicker system and eject the California eastward on Saturday.  The flow aloft is forecast to be southwesterly with transport winds turning mostly southerly and increasing.  Smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair with rain likely advancing onshore by Saturday evening.  A weak cold front is forecast to bring more rain to western Oregon Saturday night and Sunday morning with showers tapering off Sunday afternoon.  Snow level will only drop to around 5000 feet north and 6000 feet south, with continued mostly southerly transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SSE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind ESE to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind SE to S at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind ESE to S at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.

Transport wind SE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind SE to S at 5 - 9 mph.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1500 to 2500 ft by late morning rising to 2500 to 3500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind E to SSE at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1800 to 2800 ft by late morning rising to 3200 to 4200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SE to SSW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming SE to SSW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1200 to 2200 ft by late morning rising to 2800 to 3800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming SSE to SSW at 12 - 24 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, October 28, 2010.

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Coast Range

All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607, 608, and 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 616

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid ignitions north of T24S.  South of T29S higher tonnage is possible.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 617, 620, and 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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