SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Oct 31 14:17:39 PDT 2010

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, October 31, 2010       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
On Monday a ridge in the upper atmosphere will extend from southern California to the northern Rockies and an upper level low will be centered in the Gulf of Alaska.  Winds around these two features will leave the Pacific Northwest in a southwesterly flow aloft.  A Pacific cold front nearly parallel to the flow will slowly move into the Pacific Northwest.  Rain will reach Washington overnight, then northwestern Oregon by morning.  The rain will slowly spread southward but precipitation totals will taper off from north to south. Heaviest rain will be in Washington.  Northwest Oregon should see between one-half to three-quarters of an inch while southwest Oregon will find anything from nothing to perhaps as much as a tenth of an inch by Tuesday morning.  Maximum mixing heights will mostly be in the 3-4000 foot range and brisk south to south-southwesterly transport winds should make for generally fair smoke dispersal conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
      *** Marginal to Poor Ventilation Conditions after Monday ***
The low in the Gulf deepens and the ridge over the western US expands for dry weather through the middle part of the week.  Transport winds will shift to light offshore Tuesday and Wednesday.  On Thursday transport winds will go light and variable in the north and light southwesterly in the south.  Mixing heights through the outlook period will have difficulty getting above 2000 feet most areas for marginal to poor ventilation conditions.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2900 - 3900 ft.

Transport wind SW at 22 - 38 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 12 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind decreases to SW to WSW at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind SSW at 19 - 33 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 18 - 30 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind decreases to SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 16 - 30 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind SSW to SW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind decreases to SSW to SW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 14 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind S to SW at 12 - 24 mph.

Surface wind S to SW at 10 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 500 ft after sunset.

Transport wind SSW to WSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming NE to E at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1300 to 2300 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 1800 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, November 1, 2010.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618, 619, and 620

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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