SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Corrected Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Fri Apr 22 15:12:16 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

Correction to winds forecast for Monday and Tuesday:

ISSUED: Friday, April 22, 2011       3:10 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

SCHEDULING NOTE:  No forecaster will be available on Saturday, April 23rd.  Beginning Sunday, April 24th, we will transition to 7-days-a-week forecasting for the duration of the spring burning season.

SATURDAY

A weak upper-level ridge will bring one more generally dry day, but the ridge axis will shift east of the region.  Skies will start out mostly sunny, but a weather system, in a westerly jet stream aimed at California, will spread clouds northeastward across most of western Oregon during the day.  The chance of showers will be limited to the south zones, mainly over higher terrain in the afternoon and evening.

The surface thermal trough is forecast to shift over the Cascades by late-morning and into Central Oregon in the afternoon.  Afternoon temperatures should climb to above normal, for a change, across the northern zones, but more cloudiness, and a quicker switch to onshore flow, will hold temperatures near normal central and south. Daytime mixing will be good, but an early-day transition back to onshore flow will limit burning opportunities in the coast range.

OUTLOOK (SUNDAY-TUESDAY)
As the upper-level ridge continues to weaken and shift eastward, a strengthening westerly jet stream will drive a weak cold front across western Oregon Easter Sunday morning.  Precipitation from this system will be light but could locally exceed .25 inches, especially over higher terrain.  The snow level will drop to 4000 feet north and 5000 feet south.  Mixing should be good with increasing southwesterly transport winds.

A stronger cold front is forecast to come onshore Sunday night and early Monday.  This system will bring more significant precipitation to all of western Oregon, with locally over .50 inches expected.  The snow level will drop to 3000 feet north and 4000 feet south.  Mixing should be good with brisk west to southwest winds.

A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to bring a drier and more stable northwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday.  Showers will taper off with temperatures remaining well below normal.  The snow level will only rise to 3500 feet north and 4500 feet south.  Mixing will be good with decreasing onshore transport winds.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable but favors SW to W and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to WNW at 6 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind increases to WSW to NW at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1500 - 2500 ft.

Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SUNDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 18 mph during the morning becoming SSW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

MONDAY

Mixing height 2600 to 3600 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind WSW to W at 20 - 34 mph.  Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 20 mph.

TUESDAY

Mixing height 1900 to 2900 ft during the morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming SW to WNW at 4 - 8 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Saturday and Sunday, April 23 and 24, 2011.

=================================================================

For Saturday:

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 615

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 607, 608, 609, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T12S through T17S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610 and 611

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 622

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  East of R2W, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

For Sunday:

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, 615, 616 west of R8W, and 620

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S in Zone 616.  Call the forecaster.  No burning allowed south of T35S in Zone 620.

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

 * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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