SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Sun Apr 24 14:03:44 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Sunday, April 24, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    MONDAY
A fairly deep and compact upper level low moves west across the Pacific Ocean toward Vancouver Island on Monday.  The upper trough with this supports an active Pacific cold front.  The polar jet is estimated to exceed 175mph at the 30,000 foot level and cuts into North America over extreme southwest Oregon.  Oregon will be under the left front quadrant of the jet and thus prone to rainy weather.  Models indicate over one half inch in the north coast range during the day with lesser amounts elsewhere.  Transport winds should be brisk, from the west southwest most areas, and mixing heights will be quite high for good smoke dispersal conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (TUESDAY - THURSDAY)
Minor ridging develops on Tuesday but the jet stream, while weaker, remains over the state.  Areas of light rain will continue through the day.  As the ridge builds some warming aloft will suppress mixing heights slightly but smoke dispersal conditions will remain fair to good.  Transport winds will be mostly southwesterly except becoming light northwesterly over the southern Cascades.
Whatever minor ridging develops Tuesday and Tuesday night flattens Wednesday as another upper low and trough move toward the coastline.  There will be limited moisture but areas of light rain will continue.  High maximum mixing heights will give good smoke dispersal conditions most areas.
The upper trough moves in on Thursday supporting a cold front that reaches northwest Oregon early then spreads rain, or snow at higher elevations, south and east during the day.  The snow level will drop to around 2000 feet in the north and 3000 feet in the south.  Mixing will remain good for good smoke dispersal conditions.  Transport winds will be northwesterly to west in the north, southwesterly in the south.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind ESE to S at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind WSW at 20 - 36 mph.

Surface wind increases to SW to W at 13 - 25 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind WSW to W at 18 - 30 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 10 - 18 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height above 5000 ft.

Transport wind SSE to SSW at 9 - 15 mph.

Surface wind SSE to SSW at 8 - 12 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height lowers to 4000 - 5000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to SW to W and increases to 13 - 25 mph.

Surface wind shifts to SW to W and increases to 12 - 24 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 10 - 22 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3300 - 4300 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 15 - 25 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 12 - 22 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING

Mixing height 3400 - 4400 ft.

Transport wind SW to W at 10 - 20 mph.

Surface wind SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind SW to WSW at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind SW to WSW at 12 - 24 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3500 - 4500 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 22 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2100 - 3100 ft.

Transport wind WSW to WNW at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind WSW to WNW at 9 - 15 mph.

OUTLOOK:

TUESDAY

Mixing height 2200 to 3200 ft during the morning rising to 3400 to 4400 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 10 - 16 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.

WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.  Surface wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2000 to 3000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind SW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming WSW to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind SW to W at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Monday, April 25, 2011.

=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602 and 603

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Units may be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.

Zone 615 and 620

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  South of T35S in Zone 620 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T29S.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 618

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 619

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Cascades

All zones except zone 611

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart.

Zone 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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