SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS
SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER
OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Wednesday, February 2, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    THURSDAY
The persistent upper level ridge of high pressure over the region will flatten somewhat overnight Wednesday night and Thursday as a short wave moves across the top.  Models show moisture associated with this disturbance moving into Washington during the day on Thursday with perhaps some showers dropping just south of the Columbia River to dampen portions of extreme northwest Oregon late in the afternoon.  The short wave will also push the thermal trough eastward and low level flow will turn weakly onshore and northern zones will see a westerly component to transport winds.  The south coast range will see some onshore or westerly flow by afternoon from about Coos Bay northward but the rest of southwest Oregon will see continued light winds, but switching to north or northwesterly.  The Air Stagnation Advisory remains in effect for the Rogue Valley and the Klamath Basin.  Mixing heights will continue quite low with mostly poor ventilation conditions.
    EXTENDED OUTLOOK (FRIDAY - SUNDAY)
Upper air forecast charts show additional flattening for the upper ridge Friday and models show some light rain over the northwest portion of the state including the northern Cascades.  Elsewhere expect just increased cloudiness. Low level flow remains onshore.  Mixing heights improve slightly and smoke dispersions may improve to marginal some locations.  On Saturday the upper ridge retreats to off the California coast.  Precipitation penetrates farther south with a chance of rain into southwestern Oregon.  Mixing heights creep slightly higher with most areas into the marginal category for smoke dispersal.  Much of western Oregon will see a westerly transport wind, however southwest Oregon will see more northwesterly transports.  The upper ridge builds northward again on Sunday and the atmosphere becomes more stable will mixing heights lowering again.  Low level flow remains light onshore with generally southwesterly transports in the north and northwesterly transports in the south.
2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft.
Transport wind SSW to WSW at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 1000 - 2000 ft.
Transport wind increases to SW to W at 9 - 15 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING
Mixing height 1000 - 1800 ft.
Transport wind increases to SW to W at 12 - 24 mph.
Surface wind increases to SW to W at 5 - 9 mph.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height 1000 - 1600 ft.
Transport wind light and variable.
Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 1400 - 2400 ft.
Transport wind increases to SSW to WSW at 8 - 12 mph.
Surface wind increases to SSW to WSW at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.
Transport wind S to SW at 10 - 16 mph.
Surface wind S to SW at 8 - 12 mph.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft.
Transport wind light and variable.
Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height 1000 - 1700 ft.
Transport wind shifts to NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.
Surface wind similar to morning.

EVENING
Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind similar to afternoon.
Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING
Mixing height below 1000 ft.
Transport wind light and variable.
Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON
Mixing height rising to 1300 - 2300 ft.
Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.
Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING
Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.
Transport wind becomes light and variable.
Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

OUTLOOK:

FRIDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 2000 ft by late morning rising to 1600 to 2600 ft during the afternoon.  In the Coast Range transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming SW to W at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  In the Cascades transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WSW to WNW at 8 - 12 mph during the afternoon.  In the north surface wind SSW to SW at 8 - 12 mph.  In the south surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NW at 6 - 12 mph during the afternoon.

SATURDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1700 to 2700 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.

SUNDAY
Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NW at 5 - 9 mph.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA
These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Thursday, February 3, 2011.
=================================================================

Coast Range

Zone 601, 612, and 616 east of R9W
Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.  North of Tillamook in Zone 601, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

Zone 602, 603, and 620
No burning allowed.  North of T3N in Zone 602, use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Units may be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Some burning allowed south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615
Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 618 and 619
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)


Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 610, 616, 617, and 623
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  From T18S through T22S in Zone 608 units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart.

Zone 611
Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 15 miles apart, and 15 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622
No burning allowed.


Siskiyous
Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================
4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to
    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to
    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,
    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.
    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:
      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml


5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of
    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.
    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster
    prior to ignition.

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