SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) (no subject)

Mon Feb 7 13:24:09 PST 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Monday, February 7, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

    TUESDAY

An upper level ridge builds over the eastern Pacific on Tuesday and upper level flow veers to more northerly.  Scattered showers are still likely with the greatest likelihood over the Cascades. Freezing levels will range from as low as 2000 feet in the north to 2500 feet in the south so showers may be as snow to relatively low elevations.  Mixing heights fall some from Monday, but smoke dispersal conditions should remain fair to good.  Transport winds will be mostly north-northeasterly.

    OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)

On Wednesday upper ridge in the eastern Pacific will control weather in Pacific Northwest, shunting storms into south-central Alaska and keeping this area dry.  Transport winds will remain generally north-northeasterly most areas.  Mixing heights will fall under the ridge and smoke dispersal conditions become marginal.  By Thursday the ridge axis shifts eastward and subsidence increases suppressing maximum mixing heights.  Smoke dispersal conditions become poor.  There will be little change in transport wind directions but transport wind speeds will decrease considerably.  On Friday the ridge axis pushes to eastern Oregon and upper level flow becomes west-southwesterly while low level transport winds switch to south-southwest.  There will be slight improvement in mixing heights for coastal zones but overall smoke dispersal conditions will remain poor.  Expect dry weather throughout the outlook period but rain will return to the region on Saturday.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 1900 - 2900 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3100 - 4100 ft.

Transport wind shifts to N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind becomes light and variable.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind light and variable.

Surface wind light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 2700 - 3700 ft.

Transport wind increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind increases to NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind shifts to NE to E at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind becomes light and variable and controlled by local terrain.

Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):

MORNING

Mixing height 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 3700 - 4700 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 6 - 10 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height 2200 - 3200 ft.

Transport wind WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2600 - 3600 ft.

Transport wind NW to N at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height lowers below 1000 ft.

Transport wind N to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

WEDNESDAY

In the north mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1900 ft by late morning rising to 2000 to 3000 ft during the afternoon.  In the south mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2200 to 3200 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind NE to E at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming N to NE at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming N to NE at 5 - 9 mph during the afternoon.

THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1000 to 2000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable.  Surface wind light and variable.

FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft during the morning rising to 1200 to 2200 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind S to SW at 6 - 10 mph during the morning becoming SSW to SW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, February 8, 2011.

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Coast Range

Zone 601, 602, 603, 612, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of coastal SSRAs.

Zone 615

Units should be 2000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1200 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Zone 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River.  Call the forecaster.

Cascades

Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Verify transport winds away from SSRA if burning within 10 miles of the SSRA.  Higher tonnage is possible south of T20S in Zone 606.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 609, 610, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.  South of T30S in Zone 617 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart.

Zone 620 and 622

No burning allowed.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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