SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Smoke Management Forecast and Instructions

[ODF Smoke Management Instructions]

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY




NOTE:  Given the dry weather of last week, expected dry weather much of this week and the level of prescribed burning likely to occur we will be writing forecasts and instructions through Friday.  We will re-evaluate the situation later this week and may or may not continue written forecasts and instructions next week.

ISSUED: Monday, January 31, 2011       2:30 PM      Jim Little



1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623



    TUESDAY



A sharp ridge of high pressure will be along the Pacific Northwest coastline on Tuesday.  At the surface there will be high pressure over eastern Washington and a thermal trough will extend from the central Valley of California to off the Oregon coast. This will give low level off-shore flow through Wednesday.  Subsidence aloft will cause temperatures above the surface to warm while nighttime radiation will promote low level inversions in valley locations.  Coordination with the Medford National Weather Service Office Monday morning indicated that the NWS plans to issue an Air Stagnation Advisory for the Rogue Valley beginning Tuesday and likely lasting through much of the week.



    OUTLOOK (WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY)



The thermal trough remains off the coast on Tuesday for a generally offshore flow.  Mixing heights Tuesday will be quite low.  By Thursday it will be moving onshore for a shift to westerly, or onshore flow in the north but southern zones will see a northerly or northeasterly transport pattern.  Friday sees mixing heights recover a bit in the north with a generally westerly transport flow but southern zones will see very low mixing heights and poor ventilation conditions under a generally northerly transport.



2.  DISPERSION



Zone 601, 602, 603 and 612 (North Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 1100 - 2100 ft.

Transport wind ENE to E at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 8 - 12 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind NE to E at 12 - 22 mph.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 1700 - 2700 ft.

Transport wind ENE to E at 14 - 28 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 605-611 (North Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind E to SE at 10 - 16 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height 2500 - 3500 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind ESE to SE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



Zone 615-620 (South Coast Range):



MORNING

Mixing height 1800 - 2800 ft.

Transport wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3000 - 4000 ft.

Transport wind ENE to E at 8 - 14 mph.

Surface wind NE to E at 6 - 12 mph.



EVENING

Mixing height 1200 - 2200 ft.

Transport wind E to ESE at 10 - 16 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 5 - 9 mph.



Zone 616-623 (South Cascades):



MORNING

Mixing height 2400 - 3400 ft.

Transport wind E to ESE at 8 - 12 mph.

Surface wind ENE to ESE at 6 - 12 mph.



AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising to 3800 - 4800 ft.

Transport wind similar to morning.

Surface wind similar to morning.



EVENING

Mixing height 3600 - 4600 ft.

Transport wind E to ESE at 10 - 18 mph.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.



OUTLOOK:



WEDNESDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1100 to 2100 ft by late morning.  Transport wind E to SE at 8 - 12 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.  Surface wind E to SE at 4 - 8 mph during the morning becoming light and variable during the afternoon.



THURSDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning rising to 1500 to 2500 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.



FRIDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 1000 to 1800 ft by late morning and through the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph in the north, N to NNE 3-6 in the south.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph in the north, N to NNE 3-6 in the south.



3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Tuesday, February 1, 2011.

=================================================================



Coast Range



All Zones

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.





Cascades



Zone 605 and 606

Units should be 300 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 607 and 608

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 609, 610, and 611

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 10 miles apart, and 12 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 616 and 617

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.



Zone 620, 622, and 623

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.





Siskiyous

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 8 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.



==============================================================

4.  SPECIAL NOTE:



    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.



    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management



    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml





5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:



  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.



  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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