SMI West (Smoke Management Instructions) Western Oregon Smoke Management Instructions

Thu May 19 14:35:22 PDT 2011

SMOKE MANAGEMENT FORECAST AND INSTRUCTIONS

SALEM FORESTRY WEATHER CENTER

OREGON DEPARTMENT OF FORESTRY

ISSUED: Thursday, May 19, 2011       2:30 PM      Pete Parsons

1.  DISCUSSION AND FORECAST FOR THE WESTERN OREGON AREA FORECAST ZONES 601-623

FRIDAY

The strong upper-level trough that brought cool and damp conditions earlier this week dropped well southeast of Oregon on Thursday and will rotate northeastward, across the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains States, on Friday. Meanwhile, a weak ridge of high pressure is forecast to move onshore Friday morning and slowly drift eastward, to near to Idaho border, by evening.

Look for partly cloudy skies with light morning transport winds increasing from the northwest during the afternoon.  High temperatures will be 5 to 10 degrees above average, with good daytime mixing.

OUTLOOK (SATURDAY-MONDAY)

On Saturday a weak upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore, along with a surface cold front.  That should bring a return of mostly cloudy skies with at least a chance of a few showers, mainly over higher terrain.  Rainfall totals should be generally less than one-tenth of an inch.  High temperatures will likely drop back below normal, with increasing northwesterly transport winds.  Cooling aloft will promote fair to good afternoon mixing.

Little change in the weather pattern is forecast for Sunday and Monday, with a moderately strong upper-level trough over the region maintaining onshore flow, mostly cloudy skies, and a chance of a few showers.  Temperatures should remain slightly below normal with northwesterly transport winds becoming a bit more northerly by Monday, especially south.  Daytime mixing will be fair to good.

2.  DISPERSION

Zone 601-612 (North Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind light and variable but favors N to NE and controlled by local terrain.

Surface wind light and variable but favors NW to N and controlled by local terrain.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to WNW to NNW at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind increases to WNW to NNW at 5 - 9 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind similar to afternoon.

Zone 615-623 (South Coast Range and Cascades):

MORNING

Mixing height below 500 ft early rising to 3000 - 4000 ft by late morning.

Transport wind NNW to NE at 4 - 8 mph.

Surface wind NW to NNE at 4 - 8 mph.

AFTERNOON

Mixing height rising above 5000 ft.

Transport wind increases to NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.

Surface wind NW to N at 6 - 12 mph.

EVENING

Mixing height 2000 - 3000 ft.

Transport wind similar to afternoon.

Surface wind NW to N at 4 - 8 mph.

OUTLOOK:

SATURDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3100 to 4100 ft by late morning rising to 4200 to 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind light and variable during the morning becoming WNW to NW at 10 - 16 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind light and variable during the morning becoming W to NNW at 6 - 10 mph during the afternoon.

SUNDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 2500 to 3500 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind W to NNW at 5 - 9 mph during the morning becoming NW to NNW at 8 - 14 mph during the afternoon.  Surface wind W to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

MONDAY

Mixing height below 1000 ft early rising to 3000 to 4000 ft by late morning rising above 5000 ft during the afternoon.  Transport wind NW to N at 6 - 10 mph.  Surface wind WNW to NNW at 4 - 8 mph.

3.  BURNING INSTRUCTIONS FOR ALL ZONES IN THE WESTERN OREGON AREA

These instructions are valid for burning conducted on Friday, May 20, 2011.

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Coast Range

Zone 601 and 612

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units in or near corridors to 500 tons or less.  Higher tonnage is possible south of Waldport in Zone 612.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 602, 603, and 620

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Avoid burning in or near corridors.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Siuslaw River in Zone 603.  Call the forecaster.  Higher tonnage is possible south of the Rogue River in Zone 620.  Call the forecaster.

Zone 615, 618, and 619

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Avoid burning directly upwind of the North Bend/Coos Bay SSRA.

Zone 616 west of R8W

Units should be 1500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 616 east of R9W

Units should be 750 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.  Restrict units to 500 tons or less south of T30S.

Cascades

Zone 605, 606, 607, 608, 609, 611, 616, 617, and 623

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)  Ensure adequate distance from downwind SSRAs for smoke to dissipate.  South of T30S in Zone 616 units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart.

Zone 610

Units should be 1000 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Zone 620 and 622

Units should be 500 tons or less, spaced 5 miles apart, and 10 miles from downwind SSRAs.

Siskiyous

Use standard guidance matrix. (See section 5 below.)

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4.  SPECIAL NOTE:

    Call the smoke management duty forecaster at (503) 945-7401 to

    discuss burning.  Please do not call individual's numbers to

    discuss daily burning.  If the forecaster is not available,

    leave a message and he will return your call as soon as possible.

    Avoid calling between 2 to 2:30 p.m.

    The forecast is available on the Internet at:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/fire.shtml/#Smoke_Management

    Please ensure your units have been planned and accomplished by checking:

      http://oregon.gov/ODF/FIRE/SMP/dailysmoke.shtml

5.  STANDARD GUIDANCE MATRIX:

  * Greater than 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 5 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 100 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  500 ton maximum allowed if burned 5 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * 3000 - 5000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 10 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 75 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 10 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * Less than 3000 ft mixing height:  No burning within 15 miles of

    downwind SSRA.  Maximum 50 tons per mile from downwind SSRA.

    Example:  750 ton maximum allowed if burned 15 miles from downwind SSRA.

  * All exceptions must be coordinated with the duty forecaster

    prior to ignition.

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