From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 1 08:58:52 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 10:58:52 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 1st, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: High pressure and offshore surface winds brought very mild weather to western Oregon over the weekend. The warmest day in the Willamette Valley was Saturday, with much of the valley climbing into the low to mid 60s. Corvallis topped out at 65 degrees, making for t-shirt weather at the annual Civil War college football game. The Portland Airport tied a daily high temperature record Saturday afternoon of 58 degrees (previously set in 1995). Low clouds and fog were more persistent over the Willamette Valley Sunday, with most areas not quite as warm. However, offshore flow sent temperatures into the 60s along the coastline Sunday afternoon. Tillamook climed to 66 degrees...shattering their previous daily record high of 61 degrees set in 1999. High pressure remains over Oregon this morning but is beginning to shift eastward. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft has spread middle and high clouds over the entire state with areas of valley fog and low clouds on both sides of the Cascades. The Salem sounding this morning showed a persistent strong low-level temperature inversion. Surface temperatures, across the Willamette Valley, ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s at mid-morning. The air mass rapidly warms with height, with 3000-foot temperatures in the upper 50s. The ODA surface analysis showed southeasterly gradients across most of Oregon, in response to an approaching weak system offshore. Willamette Valley winds were generally sotheasterly between 5 and 10 mph. No rain was showing up yet on the Portland Doppler radar. Mid-mornig satellite imagery showed a band of mainly middle and high clouds, well ahead of the offshore system, moving over western Oregon. Those clouds should push east of the region later this morning with partial clearing, increasing southery winds, and warm air aloft helping lift temperatures into the mid to upper 50s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Satellite imagery showed another cloud-band, associated with a cold front, about 200 miles offshore. That area of clouds is forecast to move onshore late this afternoon and should be strong enough to bring some light rain to most of western Oregon tonight. Rainfall amounts across the Willamette Valley will likely be around one-quarter of an inch. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, S 10-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 7 this morning, S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 70. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 75%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:32am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is expected to rebuild over the region Tuesday afternoon, through at least Thursday, with the low-level temperature inversion strengthening Tuesday night and leading to areas of valley fog by Wednesday morning. The fog and low clouds will be slow to clear, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, especially in the central and southern valley. Increasing offshore flow will help generate enough easterly outflow, from the Colubia Gorge, to keep widespread fog out of the extreme north valley by Thursday. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over the region through Friday. Some flattening of the ridge may allow the jet stream to sag southward, to over Washington, by late Saturday. That would keep skies mostly cloudy but begin to stir the air enough to lift fog from much of the valley. Temperatures will remain mild, as Oregon stays on the south (warm) side of the jet stream. The jet stram may sag far enough south for Oregon to get clipped by a system Saturday night and Sunday. It appears that rainfall from this system would be very light. There are vastly differing computer model solutions after next weekend. That usually signals a major change in the weather pattern. It is possible that the upper-level ridge wil amplify further west, in the Gulf of Alaska, and send colder air southward, into Washington and Oregon, later next week. Tomorrow (02 Dec): Decreasing Showers. 46/54 Wed (03 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 37/50 Thu (04 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 Fri (05 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 Sat (06 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Continued Mild. 37/52 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Showers. 39/50 Mon (08 Dec): Areas of Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 1 12:00:32 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 01 Dec 2008 14:00:32 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 1st, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Updated to include stack burning today... Issued: Monday, December 1st, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: The protective ridge of high pressure, that has been dominatng the weather across the Pacific Northwest for the past couple of weeks, will temporarily weaken enough to allow a fast-moving weather system to bring a little rain to western Oregon this evening through early Tuesday. The approaching cold front was about 150 miles offshore late this morning. Middle and high clouds spread across western Oregon early this morning but pushed east of the cascades by late this morning. Much of western Oregn saw a few hours of clearing earlier this morning, but satellite imagery showed low clouds rapidly advancing onshore, into the western Willamette Valley, late this morning. The Salem sounding from early this morning continued to show a strong low-level temperature inversion, with surface temperatures in the 40s and 3000-foot temperatures in the upper 50s. However, the late-morning ODA surface analysis showed increasing southeasterly gradients across most of Oregon, in response to the approaching weather system. Southerly winds were gusting between 30 and 40 mph, along the coast, from Astoria to Newport. Willamette Valley winds were south-southeasterly between 5 and 15 mph. The increasing southerly winds were helping mix warmer air aloft down to the surface, with late-morning temperatures in the low to mid 50s along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. That had lifted the fog from the valley. As the front approaches, ventilation conditions will continue to improve, so stack burning is allowed today until 3 p.m. The cold front is forecast to move onshore late this afternoon and should be strong enough to bring about one-quarter of an inch of rain to the coast and Willamette Valley by Tuesday morning. Surface Winds: SSE 10-15 G20 Late this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 70. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 75%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:32am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge is expected to rebuild over the region beginning Tuesday afternoon and may hold fast into the weekend. That will result in deteriorating ventilation conditions by Wednesday with areas of valley fog reforming. The fog and low clouds will be slow to clear, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, especially in the central and southern valley. Increasing offshore flow will help generate enough easterly outflow, from the Colubia Gorge, to keep widespread fog out of the extreme north valley by Thursday. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over the region into Saturday. Some flattening of the ridge may begin late Saturday with a chance of light rain as early as Sunday. However, there is considerable disagreement in the long-range models regarding how and when the ridge will break-down. A major change in the weather pattern is likely after next weekend, but exactly what form that will take remains to be seen. Tomorrow (02 Dec): Decreasing Showers. 46/54 Wed (03 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 37/50 Thu (04 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 Fri (05 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 Sat (06 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Continued Mild. 37/52 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Showers. 39/50 Mon (08 Dec): Areas of Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 2 09:00:45 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 02 Dec 2008 11:00:45 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, December 2nd, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A fast-moving cold front swept across western Oregon overnight and was near the Idaho border by mid-morning. The strom was stronger across the northern half of the state. Rainfall totals along the coast ranged from about one-quarter of an inch at North Bend and Brookings to nearly one inch at Tillamook. The southern Willamette Valley picked up from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch, while the north valley generally received between one-quarter and one-half inch. Snow levels dropped to about 5000 feet, in the Cascades, by early this morning. Three inches of new snow fell overnight at Timberline Lodge. ODOT cameras snowed a rain/snow mix over the Cascade passes, at mid-morning, with generally just wet pavement. The storm was strong enough to spread some light rain across the northern half of central and eastern Oregon. Most areas picked up a few hundredths of an inch, with up to one-quater inch falling in the Pendleton area. The front also greatly improved ventilation conditions by cooling the air aloft and eliminating the persistently strong low-level temperature inversion over western Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable cooling aloft. 3000-foot temperatures had cooled from nearly 60 degrees, Monday morning, to about 40 degrees. That should help mixing heights climb above 2000 feet this afternoon. Transport winds winds were south-southwesterly, at about 15 mph, with the flow aloft veering to northwesterly in response to a building ridge of high pressure. High pressure will build back over the region today with clearing skies across the state. Doppler radar showed a few showers in the northern Cascades and near the Idaho border, but those should taper off by this afternoon. Even with some sunshine temperatures will likely be a couple of degrees cooler today, due to the much colder air aloft. Valley highs should top out around 55 degrees with continued south-southwesterly winds making for good ventilation conditions. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 this morning, SW 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SW 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2200 feet. Ventilation index 33. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 80%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:33am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge will continue to build over the region Wednesday and will likely last into the weekend. warming aloft will result in deteriorating ventilation conditions, with areas of valley fog reforming tonight. The fog and low clouds will be slow to clear, Wednesday and Thursday afternoon, especially in the central and southern valley. Increasing offshore flow will help generate enough easterly outflow, from the Colubia Gorge, to keep widespread fog out of the extreme north valley by Thursday. The offshore flow is forecast to decrease Friday with increasing fog and low clouds in the north valley. The ridge of high pressure is forecast to remain over the region into Saturday. Some flattening of the ridge may begin late Saturday with a chance of light rain in the north valley. There is considerable disagreement in the long-range models regarding how and when the ridge will break-down beginning next week. A major change in the weather pattern is likely after this weekend, but exactly what form that will take remains to be seen. Increased onshore flow may combine with lowering snow levels to finally bring some significant snow to the mountains. Tomorrow (03 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 37/50 Thu (04 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 34/50 Fri (05 Dec): Morning Low Clouds and Fog. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 34/49 Sat (06 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Sprinkles North. 36/50 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Showers. 39/50 Mon (08 Dec): Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 39/52 Tue (09 Dec): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 feet. 38/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 3 08:59:31 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 03 Dec 2008 10:59:31 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, December 3rd, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: High pressure is building offshore with a dry northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon this morning. The Salem sounding showed considerable warming aloft (above 4500 feet) since Tuesday morning with slight cooling below about 4500 feet. That stabilized that atmosphere overnight and allowed fog to reform over most of the Willamette Valley by this morning. Visibilities were locally one-half of a mile or less. Temperatures were cooler this morning, compared to Tuesday morning, with minimums ranging from the mid 30s to the mid 40s. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the mid 40s across the Willamette Valley and mid to upper 40s along the coast. Satellite imagery showed considerable marine clouds across western Oregon, from the coast to the Cascades, in addition to areas of fog. A weak upper-level disturbance was spreading clouds across most of Washington and northeast Oregon. There were also areas of fog and low clouds in the valleys of central and eastern Oregon. No preciitation was being reported statewide. The ODA surface analysis showed weak pressure gradients across Oregon with cool and dry Canadian air settling into eastern Washington. A nearly stationary frontal boundary extended from northwest to southeast Washington and separated the low-level moist air mass over Oregon from a cooler and drier air mass over much of Washington. The drier Canadian air will slowly filter southward and eventually westward, through the Columbia Gorge, into the northern Willamette Valley by later this afternoon. That will act to clear skies in the Portland area and possibly as far south as the central Willamette Valley. Fog and low clouds will likely be persistent in the southern Willamette Valley today. With a little afternoon sunshine, north valley temperatures will likely climb into the low 50s, while cloudy and foggy areas in the south valley stay in the mid to upper 40s. Offshore flow will increase tonight with fog staying out of much of the north valley. However, fog will likely persist in much of the south valley. Easterly winds will become blustery near the Columbia Gorge, with gusts to near 40 mph likely by tonight. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, NNE 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 3 this morning, NNE 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 700 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 74%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:34am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level ridge will continue to build over the region Thursday with continued northerly flow aloft and offshore flow at the surface. Warming aloft will strengthen low-level temperature inversions and further deteriorate ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. Fog will likely still be an issue for much of the southern Willamette Valley. Dry easterly winds will keep the north valley mostly sunny. Enough drier air may filter southward enough to bring some afternoon clearing to the southern Willamette Valley, by Thursday afternoon. As the upper-level ridge moves directly over Oregon, on Friday, the offshore flow is forecast to decrease. That will allow the low-level air mass to moisten with increasing fog and low clouds...especially in the central and south valley. The ridge is forecast to flatten Saturday, with a strengthening jet stream sagging south to over Washington and northern Oregon. That will bring a chance of light rain, mainly to the north valley. Cooling aloft will begin to improve ventilation conditions, and fog will likely be lifted from the valley. The long-range models are finally coming into agreement, regarding a major change in the weather pattern, beginning next week. It appears that the strong protective ridge of high pressure, that has brought unsesonably dry and mild conditions to Oregon since mid-November, will shift westward and allow a series of cold weather systems to drop into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. That will bring a chance of rain back to western Oregon by the end of the weekend with more significant rain and mountain snow possible by the end of next week. Tomorrow (04 Dec): Mostly Sunny North. Areas of Fog South With Afternoon Clearing. 34/50 Fri (05 Dec): AM Low Clouds and Fog. Partly Sunny Afternoon...Mainly North. 31/49 Sat (06 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Rain North. 34/50 Sun (07 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 40/49 Mon (08 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. 35/47 Tue (09 Dec): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6-8000 feet. 40/53 Wed (10 Dec): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6-8000 Feet. 40/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Dec 4 09:01:09 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Dec 2008 11:01:09 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, December 4th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, December 4th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 2:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level high pressure area began building offshore Wednesday with the flow aloft drying out and turning northerly. A very slow moving modified arctic cold front brought drier Canadian air into Washington Wednesday and much of northern and eastern Oregon overnight. That helped to clear the fog and low clouds from the northern Willamette Valley, but visible satellite imagery showed considerable low cloudiness continuing this morning in the western valleys in Linn and Lane Counties. With a little afternoon sunshine on Wednesday, north valley temperatures climbed into the low 50s, while cloudy and foggy areas in the south valley stayed in the upper 40s. The drier air overnight lead to cooler minimum temperatures this morning...especially in the north valley. Hillsboro dropped to 30 degrees, while clearing skies allowed Salem and Corvallis to fall to the freezing mark. Clouds held temperatures in the low 40s in Eugene. The upper-level ridge will build into the coastline today with continued northerly flow aloft and increasingly dry offshore flow at the surface. The Salem sounding this morning showed a strengthening temperature inversion from between 1500 and 2500 feet, so mixing heights should stay at or below 1500 feet this afternoon. Forecast north-northeasterly transport winds are not good for ventilating smoke from stack burns, so they are not allowed today. The ODA surface analysis showed the weak arctic frontal boundary extending from the north coast, through the central Willamette Valley, to southeastern Oregon. North of that front, skies were mostly sunny. South of the front, valley locations, on both sides of the Cascades, still had considerable fog and low clouds. As dry air continues to filter southward, across Oregon today, the low clouds should begin to clear from the southern valleys. Mostly sunny skies will previal in the central and northern Willamette Valley, along the coast, and over the Cascades. High temperatures should be near 50 degrees across the Willamette Valley and 50-55 along the coast. Mostly clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the upper 20s across much of the valley. Surface Winds: NNE 5-15 this morning, NNE 7-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 13 this morning, NNE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 23. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 50%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:35am. Extended Outlook: As the upper-level ridge moves directly over western Oregon, on Friday, the offshore flow is forecast to decrease. That may allow the low-level air mass to moisten enough for areas of morning fog in the central and south valley. The north valley should see another mostly sunny day. The ridge is forecast to flatten Saturday, with a strengthening jet stream sagging south to over Washington and northern Oregon. That will bring a slight chance of light rain to the north valley. A little stronger weather system is forecast to slide across Washington and northern Oregon Sunday, in a cooler northwesterly flow aloft. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather next Monday. A weak warm front may bring some sprinkles or light rain to mainly the north valley Tuesday. The long-range models are finally coming into agreement, regarding a major change in the weather pattern, beginning next week. It appears that the strong protective ridge of high pressure, that has brought unsesonably dry and mild conditions to Oregon since mid-November, will shift westward and allow a series of progressively stronger weather systems to drop into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. That will bring a chance of rain back to western Oregon by the middle of next week with more significant storms possibly bringing rain and mountain snow to the region by the following weekend. Tomorrow (05 Dec): Areas AM Low Clouds and Fog South...Otherwise Mostly Sunny. 28/49 Sat (06 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Rain North. 30/50 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Light Rain North. Snow Level Dropping to 5500 Feet. 39/50 Mon (08 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. 37/49 Tue (09 Dec): Chance of Sprinkles North. Snow Level Rising to 8000 feet. 40/50 Wed (10 Dec): Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6-8000 Feet. 40/53 Thu (11 Dec): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 6-8000 Feet. 38/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 5 07:39:02 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Dec 2008 09:39:02 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 5th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, December 5th, 2008 at 7:40am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A building upper-level ridge of high pressure brought a dry northerly flow aloft and increasing offshore winds to western Oregon Thursday. That cleared the persistent fog from the valley and allowed for a sunny afternoon. After a chilly start, with morning minimums near freezing, afternoon temperatures climbed above normal, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Easterly winds became rather blustery in the north valley, near Portland, with gusts to near 30 mph. North-northeasterly winds, around 5-15 mph, prevailed across the remainder of the Willamette Valley. Skies remained mostly clear overnight with a continued influx of dry Canadian air preventing fog from forming and allowing temperatures to fall to their coldest readings of the season. The final minimums are not available yet, but Hillsboro and Eugene dropped to at least 26 degrees this morning, Corvallis 27, McMinnville 28, and Salem dipped to 29. The upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over Oregon today. Satellite imagery showed high clouds moving over the top of the ridge across Washinton, with mostly clear skies over Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed decreasing offshore flow. Easterly winds had decreased to just 15 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge, and winds were light in the Willamette Valley. That was allowing some patchy fog to begin forming in the southern valley, near Eugene. Other than areas of morning fog, in the south valley, skies should be mostly sunny again today across western Oregon. Winds will be light and may turn southeasterly by the afternoon. Highs will likely climb into the upper 40s. The Salem sounding showed warming aloft, with a strong low-level temperature inversion, so mixing heights will be very low today. That will make for poor ventilation conditions. Light winds will allow more widespread fog formation tonight, which may combine with below freezing temperatures to make for locally slick streets Saturday morning. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, SE 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this morning, ESE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 600 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 27%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:36am. Extended Outlook: The ridge is forecast to flatten Saturday, with the jet stream sagging south to over Washington and northern Oregon. That will bring a slight chance of light rain, mainly to the north valley, late Saturday and Sunday. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather next Monday. A weak warm front may bring some sprinkles or light rain to mainly the north valley Tuesday. The long-range models are showing general agreement that the strong protective ridge of high pressure, that has brought unsesonably dry and mild conditions to Oregon since mid-November, will shift westward later next week. That will allow a series of cold weather systems to drop into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The details of the long-range forecast are impossible to predict this far out, but the general pattern favors a return of stormy weather to the Pacific Northwest by the end of next week. Snow will likely begin piling up in the mountains by next weekend. There is also a chance of low-elevation snowfall next weekend, if the jet stream pattern sets up just right. Sat (06 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Rain North. 28/50 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Light Rain North. Snow Level Dropping to 5500 Feet. 37/50 Mon (08 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. 37/49 Tue (09 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. Snow Level 8000 feet. 38/50 Wed (10 Dec): Areas of Fog. Mostly Cloudy. 36/52 Thu (11 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. 36/52 Fri (12 Dec): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 36/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 5 11:59:48 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Dec 2008 13:59:48 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 5th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next Update Tuesday, December 9, 2008... Issued: Friday, December 5th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A building upper-level ridge of high pressure brought a dry northerly flow aloft and increasing offshore winds to western Oregon Thursday. That cleared the persistent fog from the valley and allowed for a sunny afternoon. After a chilly start, with morning minimums near freezing, afternoon temperatures climbed above normal, with highs in the upper 40s and low 50s. Easterly winds became rather blustery in the north valley, near Portland, with gusts to near 30 mph. North-northeasterly winds, around 5-15 mph, prevailed across the remainder of the Willamette Valley. Skies remained mostly clear overnight with a continued influx of dry Canadian air preventing fog from forming and allowing temperatures to fall to their coldest readings of the season. Hillsboro dipped to 25 degrees. McMinnville and Eugene dropped to 26. Salem and Corvallis bottomed out at 27. The upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over Oregon today. Satellite imagery showed high clouds moving over the top of the ridge across Washinton, with mostly clear skies over Oregon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed a much weaker offshore flow than yesterday. Easterly winds had decreased to around 20 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge, and winds were light in the Willamette Valley. That allowed some brief patchy fog to form in the southern valley shortly after dawn, near Eugene. Visible satellite imagery late this morning showed a few remaining pocets of fog and low clouds in the Umpqua and Rogue River Basins of southwestern Oregon. Otherwise, mostly sunny skies covered western Oregon. Winds will be light across the Willamette valley this afternoon and may turn southeasterly. Midday temperatures were running a few degrees cooler than on Thursday, so afternoon highs will likely be in the 45-50 degree range in the valley and 50-55 along the coast. The Salem sounding showed warming aloft, with a strong low-level temperature inversion, so mixing heights will be very low today. That will make for poor ventilation conditions. Light winds will allow more widespread fog formation tonight, which may combine with below freezing temperatures to make for locally slick streets Saturday morning. Surface Winds: SE 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: ESE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 600 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 48. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:36am. Extended Outlook: The ridge is forecast to flatten Saturday, with the jet stream sagging south to over Washington and northern Oregon. That will bring a slight chance of light rain, mainly to the north valley, late Saturday and Sunday. A transitory ridge of high pressure is forecast to bring dry weather next Monday. A weak warm front may bring some sprinkles or light rain to mainly the north valley Tuesday. The long-range models are showing general agreement that the strong protective ridge of high pressure, that has brought unsesonably dry and mild conditions to Oregon since mid-November, will shift westward later next week. That will allow a series of cold weather systems to drop into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. The details of the forecast are impossible to predict this far out, but the general pattern favors a return of stormy weather to the Pacific Northwest by the end of next week. Snow will likely begin piling up in the mountains by next weekend. There is also a chance that enough cold air could make it far enough south for sticking snow in the Willamette Valley by next weekend. Sat (06 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Rain North. 28/50 Sun (07 Dec): Chance of Light Rain North. Snow Level Dropping to 5500 Feet. 37/50 Mon (08 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. 37/49 Tue (09 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. Snow Level 8000 feet. 38/50 Wed (10 Dec): Areas of Fog. Mostly Cloudy. 36/52 Thu (11 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. 36/52 Fri (12 Dec): Increasing Rain and Wind. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 36/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 9 09:01:58 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 09 Dec 2008 11:01:58 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, December 9th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The Salem sounding this morning showed strong warming warming in response to a building upper-level ridge of high pressure. That stabilized the air mass overnight and allowed widespread fog to form throughout the Willamette Valley. Visibilities were generally about one-quarter of a mile or less across the valley this morning. A warm front was spreading middle and high clouds across all of Washington and much of Oregon. Doppler radar showed light rain falling across sections of northwesterln Washington and extending southwestward to just off the northern Oregon Coast. There were no surface reports of precipitation across Oregon as of mid-morning. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure centered over southeastern Oregon with southeasterly pressure gradients across both Oregon and Washington. Winds were around 5 mph or less across all of Oregon, except for along the coast, where Newport was getting southeasterly winds of 10 mph. The moist low-level air mass was helping to keep temperatures above freezing across most of the Willamette Valley at mid-morning Aurora and Eugene were right near the freezing mark. Eugene briefly dropped to 26 degrees early this morning, before the fog formed. Fair skies allowed temperatures to get considerably colder east of the Cascades this morning, with virtually all locations dropping below freezing. Lakeview and Rome dropped down to 9 degrees this morning, and Burns fell to 10 degrees. Pendleton was the warmest spot I could find, east of the Cascades, with a low of 30 degrees. Even The Dalles dropped to 29 thanks to calm winds. Mid-morning temperatures were still near the morning minumims. The warm front will spread light rain southward today across most of western Washington and possibly extreme northern Oregon. All of Oregon will see increasing amoutns of middle and high clouds. The western valleys will have a tough time getting rid of the morning fog, but some afternoon sunbreaks are possible, especially in the south valley. Ventilation conditions will be poor today, due to cool surface temperatures and unseasonably warm air aloft. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford this morning were measured at 11,600 feet and 12,500 feet respectively. Surface Winds: SE 3 this morning, SE 3 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 4 this morning, SE 6 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:40am. Extended Outlook: An west-to-east oriented cold front will sag southward into Washington tonight and possibly as far south as extreme northern Oregon Wednesday. That will keep skies mostly cloudy tonight and Wednesday across the Willamette Valley with areas of overnight fog reforming...mainly in the central and south valley. Light winds will allow temperatures to locally drop to the freezing mark overnight, but Wednesday morning minimums should be a couple of degrees warmer than this morning. Continued warming aloft may add a couple of degrees to afternoon high temperatures, especially in the south valley. The cold front is forecast to dissipate, as it sags southward, into the central Willamette Valley, on Thursday. Skies should stay mostly clouds with at least a slight chance of light rain...mainly north. A little cooling aloft will improve ventilation conditions but not likely enough to allow for stack burning. Skies should at least partially clear Thursday evening with areas of fog reforming. A major change in the weather pattern is forecast to begin Friday, as our protective ridge of high pressure shifts westward, to the Gulf of Alaska, and directs a series of cold weather systems southward, along the British Columbia Coastline, into the Pacific Northwest. The first system will likely spread rain onto the Oregon Coast by around midday Friday and into the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon. Increasing southerly winds should lift the fog from all of the valley, with rapid cooling aloft greatly improving ventilation conditions. Big changes are in store for the mountains, beginning Friday, with significant snow accumulations likely beginning later Friday. The cold front will drop snow levels in the Cascades to pass elevations by late Friday afternoon with winter driving conditions likely by Friday evening and night. A cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will prevail Saturday and Sunday with locally heavy mountain snows likely. As the weekend progresses, colder Arctic air will be sagging southward, across southern British Columbia, Washington, and eventually northern Oregon. Initially, that cold air will be modified, as it is pulled out over the warmer ocean and then returned inland in the form of cold showers. Snow levels will get progressively lower with each band of showers...eventually reaching the valley floors. Eventually, Arctic air that has not been out over the warmer ocean waters, will begin spilling into the Willamette Valley, via the Columbia Gorge...dropping snow levels to the surface. That transition to a drier and cold air mass may bring significant snow accumulation to the valley, if enough moisture is still available in the northwesterly flow aloft. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region later Sunday and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk eastly winds will develop in the north valley with northerly winds in the central and south valley. Winter will have arrived! Wed (10 Dec): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain North. 34/49 Thu (11 Dec): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain. 37/50 Fri (12 Dec): Rain Developing. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 35/46 Sat (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level Dropping to near Valley Floor. 33/39 Sun (14 Dec): Snow Likely...Possible Accumulations. 28/34 Mon (15 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cold. 21/30 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Very Cold. 14/27 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 10 09:00:02 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Dec 2008 11:00:02 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, December 10th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains over Oregon today with very warm air aloft trapping cool air near the surface. The Salem sounding this morning showed a steep low-level temperature inversion with surface temperatures in the mid 30s and 2000-foot temperatures near 50 degrees. That inversion will cap mixing heights at or below 500 feet again today, making for poor ventialtion conditions over the Willamette Valley. A very weak frontal system moved southward across Washington yesterday and was near the northwest corner of Oregon this morning. Satellite imagery showed a band of middle and high clouds across northern Oregon with low clouds along the north coast and over the western valleys. Visible satellite imagery showed that the south coast, and the higher inland locations across Oregon had mostly sunny skies this morning. Low clouds also covered many of the valley locations in central and easten Oregon, due to the stagnant conditons. The Willamette Valley had cloudy and/or foggy conditions this morning with temperatures mostly in the 30s. Eugene had icy fog with a temperature of just 32 degrees. There have been a few sprinkles in the valley this morning with some very light rain along the north coast, at Astoria. Skies should stay mostly cloudy today with just a slight chance of sprinkles. Winds will be light and temperaures will edge up into the mid 40s across most of the valley. Surface Winds: SE 3 this morning, Var 3 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 5 this morning, Var 3 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 79%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:41am. Extended Outlook: The cold front is forecast to dissipate across Oregon on Thursday. Skies should stay mostly cloudy over the Willamette Valley with a slight chance of sprinkles. A little cooling aloft will improve ventilation conditions but not likely enough to allow for stack burning. Partial clearing Thursday evening may allow areas of fog to reform overnight. A major change in the weather pattern will begin Friday, as our protective ridge of high pressure shifts westward, into the Gulf of Alaska, and directs a series of cold weather systems southward, along the British Columbia Coastline, into the Pacific Northwest. The first system will likely spread rain and windy weather onto the Oregon Coast by around midday Friday and into the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon. Brisk southerly winds should lift the fog from all of the western valleys, with rapid cooling aloft greatly improving ventilation conditions. Although this system will initially bring rain, even to fairly high high elevations, conditions will rapidly change during the day Friday. As the strong cold front moves into the Cascades, Friday afternoon, much colder air aloft will lower to snow level to the passes with strong winds and heavy snow making for extremely difficult travel conditions. In the wake of the cold front, cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will bring heavy snow showers to both the coastal and Cascade passes Saturday and Sunday. Total snow accumulations could exceed two feet over the Cascade passes with several inches likely over the coast range passes. Be prepared for extreme winter driving conditions over any mountain passes this weekend. Colder Arctic air will slowly sag southward, into Washington, Saturday and northern Oregon by Sunday afternoon. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The cold air will be pulled out over the warmer ocean and then returned inland in the form of rain and snow showers, with the snow levels progressively lowering. Sticking snow will probably get as low as 500 feet Saturday, and perhaps to the valley floors. The snow level will drop to the valley floors, from north to south, on Sunday, as the cold Arctic air begins pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. This transition, into a much coler air mass, has the potential to bring the most significant snow accumulations to the Willamette Valley floors in several years. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region Sunday night and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will develop in the north valley with northerly winds in the central and south valley. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline and into the cool dome of air over the region around the middle of next week. If it is able to tap into enough Pacific moisture, then it would bring more snow the the Willamette Valley. That is still too far in the future to predict at this time. Tomorrow (11 Dec): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Sprinkles. 37/48 Fri (12 Dec): Increasing Rain and Wind. PM Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 35/46 Sat (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level 500 Feet or Lower. 33/39 Sun (14 Dec): Rain or Snow...Turning to Snow. Valley Accumulations Likely. 30/34 Mon (15 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers. Clearing and Turning Much Colder. 23/30 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 18/29 Wed (17 Dec): Chance of Snow. 17/29 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Dec 11 09:00:58 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Dec 2008 11:00:58 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, December 11th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, December 11th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The strong upper-level ridge, that has generally been over the Pacific Northwest since mid-November, is showing signs of shifting westward this morning with increasing northwestery flow aloft. Infrared satellite imagery showed an area of middle and high clouds, associated with a weak upper-level disturbance, covering most of Washington and Oregon and extending a couple of hundred miles offshore. That helped to keep dense fog from forming in the Willamette Valley overnight, but the valley was socked in with low clouds and a light fog this morning. Astoria, on the north coast, picked up one-quarter of an inch of rain Wednesday morning, with a few hundredths of an inch falling as far south and east as Tillamook and Scappoose. Mostly dry conditions prevailed across the remainder of Oregon Wednesday with valley temperatrues climbing to near 50 degrees in the afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies overnight kept dense fog from forming in the valley, but light fog was prevalent. No surface stations in Oregon were reporting any precipitation this morning, but Doppler radar was showing some sprinkles moving onto the central coast. Temperatures were warmer this morning with minimums staying above freezing across the Willamette Valley. Minimums east of the Cascades were mostly in the 20s and 30s. The coldest readings were in south-central and southeastern Oregon. Lakeview dropped to 16 degrees and Burns dipped to 17. Mid-morning temperatures were in the low to mid 40s across the Willamette Valley with low clouds and light fog. The Salem sounding this morning showed a little cooling aloft, but the freezing level was still up at 9700 feet. Mixing heights will likely climb above 1000 feet this afternoon. However, ventilation is still too poor to allow stack burning. In addition, north-northeasterly transport winds are not conducive to good smoke evacuation from the valley. The ODA surface analysis showed a weak thermal trough along the coast with light north-northeastery gradients across western Oregon. Little change in that pressure pattern is expected this afternoon. Morning low clouds and fog will get way to mostly cloudy and mild conditions this afternoon. There is a slight chance of a sprinkle...mainly in the south valley. Highs should, once again, climb into the upper 40s and perhaps locally reach 50. Today is the calm before the storm. More on that in the extended discussion... Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 11 this morning, NNE 11 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1200 feet. Ventilation index 13. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:41am. Extended Outlook: A major change in the weather pattern will begin Friday, as the upper-level ridge of high pressure continues to shift weastward and builds north into the Gulf of Alaska. Increasing northwesterly flow aloft will direct a series of cold weather systems southward, along the British Columbia Coastline, into the Pacific Northwest. That will greatly improve ventilation conditions across western Oregon. The first system will likely bring rain and strong southerly winds to the northern Oregon Coast around midday Friday and into the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon. A High Wind Watch has been issued along the Oregon Coast for southerly gusts to 65 mph Friday. South winds may gust to 40 mph in the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon and evening, as the cold front moves onshore. Although this system will initially bring rain, even to fairly high high elevations, snow levels will rapidly drop Friday afternoon and night. Snow levels will start near 7000 feet, Friday morning, and drop to near 1000 feet, in the wake of the cold front, Friday night. Heavy snow and strong winds will make for blizzard conditions in the Cascade passes by late Friday, where a Winter Storm Watch has been issued. The coastal passes may see accumulating snow as early as Friday afternoon with snowy travel likely by Friday night. In the wake of the cold front, cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will bring heavy snow showers to both the coastal and Cascade passes Saturday and Sunday. Total snow accumulations could exceed two feet over the Cascade passes with up to a foot of snow over the coast range passes. Be prepared for extreme winter driving conditions over any mountain passes this weekend. Colder Arctic air will slowly sag southward, into Washington, Saturday and northern Oregon as early as Saturday night. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The cold air will be pulled out over the warmer ocean and then returned inland in the form of rain and snow showers, with the snow levels progressively lowering. Sticking snow will probably get as low as 500 feet Saturday, and perhaps to the valley floors by Saturday night...especially north. The snow level will drop to the valley floors, from north to south, on Sunday, as the cold Arctic air begins pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. This transition, into a much coler air mass, has the potential to bring the most significant snow accumulations to the Willamette Valley floor since January, 2004. It is starting to look more and more as if the valley will get measurable amounts of snow on the valley floor Sunday. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region Sunday night and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will develop in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline around the middle of next week. With cold air already in place, across the Willamette Valley, precipitation from that system will fall in the form of snow. It is still too far out to forecast how much snow may fall, but it is looking more likely that the valley will get measurable snowfall late Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week. Tomorrow (12 Dec): Increasing Rain and Wind. PM Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 35/46 Sat (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level 500 Feet or Lower. 35/39 Sun (14 Dec): Snow. Valley Accumulations Likely. 30/34 Mon (15 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers. Clearing and Turning Much Colder. 23/30 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 18/29 Wed (17 Dec): Increasing Chance of Snow. 17/29 Thu (18 Dec): Snow Likely Early...Decreasing Late. 22/28 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 12 09:01:03 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 11:01:03 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 12th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, December 12th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: Clearing skies, in the northern Willamette Valley and along the coast, made for a pleasant Thursday afternoon with high temperatures in the low 50s. Low clouds were more persistent in the south valley, where highs only managed to climb into the low to mid 40s. Light winds allowed temperatures to fall to near or slightly below the freezing mark across most of the valley overnight, with areas of fog and low clouds reforming. The Salem sounding, from 4 a.m., was similar to Thursday morning, with very warm air aloft and a strong low-level temperature inversion. However, major changes were evident in the upper-level winds, which were much stronger than Thursday, in response to an approaching cold front. By mid-morning, increasing southerly winds, at the surface, had lifted the fog from the southern and central valley and warmed temperatures into the low 40s. South winds had not mixed the fog out of sections of the north valley, so some areas, like Hillsboro, were still in the low to mid 30s. A highly advertised change in the weather pattern is underway, with an amplifying upper-level ridge of high pressure, in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a strong and cold weather system down the British Columbia coastline towards the Pacific Northwest. After many days with stagnant weather conditions, increasing southerly winds and rapid cooling aloft will combine to greatly improve ventilation across western Oregon today. Infrared satellite imagery showed a rapidly strengthening low-pressure system about 150-200 miles northwest of the northern Washington coast. A broad cloud-shield extended across all of Washington and all but the southeast corner of Oregon. Doppler radar showed light rain spreading across most of western Washington and moving onto the northern Oregon coast. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing southerly gradients across western Oregon. Southerly winds were gusting to about 20 mph in the central and southern Willamette Valley and to about 30 mph along the northern Oregon coast. The low-pressure center is forecast to continue to strengthen and move inland, to near Seattle, by late this afternoon and to near Spokane by midnight. That strom track will bring increasingly strong south and sothwesterly winds to western Oregon and southwestern Washington later today through tonight. The National Weather Service has issued a High Winds Watch for the northern and central Oregon coast, for gusts to 65 mph, from 10 am today through tonight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Willamette Valley, through tonight, for gusts to 45 mph. The strongest valley winds will likely be from Salem north to Portland. A strong cold front will also bring increasing rain to western Oregon this afternoon, with snow levels rapidly lowering from more than 7000 feet this morning to less than 1000 feet tonight. Valley highs should only climb into the mid 40s. Heavy snow and strong winds will make for blizzard conditions in the Cascade passes later today and tonight. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the Cascade passes beginning at 10 a.m. today and lasting through Saturday morning. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, for the Cascade foothills and coastal passes, for this afternoon through Saturday. By tonight, snow levels may drop as low as 500 feet across western Oregon with continued shower activity. Some snow accumulations are possible in the higher hills of the northern and central Willamette Valley. Brisk southwesterly winds will keep overnight temperatures in the mid 30s on the valley floor, where accumulating snow is not yet expected... Surface Winds: S 10-20 G25 this morning, SSW 15-30 G45 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this morning, SSW 45 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3400 feet. Ventilation index 153. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: In the wake of the cold front, cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will bring heavy snow showers to both the coastal and Cascade passes Saturday and Sunday. Total snow accumulations could exceed two feet over the Cascade passes with up to a foot of snow over the coast range passes. Be prepared for extreme winter driving conditions over any mountain passes this weekend. Colder Arctic air will slowly sag southward, into Washington, Saturday and northern Oregon as early as Saturday night. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The cold air will be pulled out over the warmer ocean and then returned inland in the form of rain and snow showers, with the snow levels progressively lowering. Sticking snow will probably get as low as 500 feet Saturday, especially in the northern and central Willamette Valley, and perhaps to the valley floors, in the north valley, by Saturday night. The snow level will drop to the valley floors, from north to south, on Sunday, as the cold Arctic air begins pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. Accumulating snow, on the valley floors, is likely Sunday through early Monday with the potential for the most significant snow accumulations since January, 2004. Most, if not all, of the valley will likely get at least an inch of snow by Monday morning with significantly more in the hills. It is possible that areas of the valley floor could accumulate several inches of snow, Sunday through early Monday, depending on the speed of the Arctic cold front and the amount of available moisture. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region Sunday night and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will develop in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline around the middle of next week. With cold air already in place, precipitation from that system will fall in the form of snow. It is still too far out to forecast how much snow may fall, but it is looking more likely that the valley will get measurable snowfall again late Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week, with continued cold weather into the weekend. Tomorrow (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet. 35/41 Sun (14 Dec): Snow. Valley Accumulations Likely. 32/34 Mon (15 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers. Clearing and Turning Much Colder. 23/28 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 12/25 Wed (17 Dec): Snow Likely Late. 12/28 Thu (18 Dec): Snow Likely. 24/28 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Ending. Becoming Partly Cloudy and Continued Cold. 17/23 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 12 12:02:33 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:02:33 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 12th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next Update Scheduled For 9 am Tuesday, December 16, 2008... Issued: Friday, December 12th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A highly advertised change in the weather pattern is underway, with an amplifying upper-level ridge of high pressure, in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a strong and cold weather system down the British Columbia coastline towards the Pacific Northwest. After many days with stagnant weather conditions, increasing southerly winds and rapid cooling aloft will combine to greatly improve ventilation across western Oregon today. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a rapidly strengthening low-pressure system was centered just off the northern Washington coast late this morning. A broad cloud-shield extended across all of Washington and Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports indicate that olcally heavy rain was moving into northwest Oregon along with strong south winds. The ODA surface analysis showed rapidly increasing southerly gradients across western Oregon. Southerly winds were gusting to about 30 mph in the northern and central Willamette Valley and to about 40 mph along the northern and central Oregon coast. The low-pressure center is forecast to continue to strengthen and move inland, to near Seattle, by late this afternoon and into eastern Washington tonight. That strom track will bring increasingly strong south and southwesterly winds to western Oregon and southwestern Washington this afternoon through tonight. The National Weather Service has issued a High Winds Warning for the northern and central Oregon coast and coastal range, for gusts to 65 mph, through tonight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Willamette Valley, through tonight, for gusts to 45 mph. The strongest valley winds will likely be from Salem north to Portland. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, in the Portland area, later this afternoon through early this evening. A strong cold front will bring increasing rain to western Oregon this afternoon. Snow levels have already dropped to about 4000 feet, with ODOT road cameras showing accumulating snow over the Cascade passes. Snow levels will drop at least down to 1000 feet tonight. Valley highs should only climb into the mid 40s. Heavy snow and strong winds will make for blizzard conditions, at times, in the Cascade passes through tonight. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the Cascade passes through Saturday morning. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, for the Cascade foothills and coastal passes, for this afternoon through Saturday. The latest National Weather Service forecasts, watches, and warnings may be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ By tonight, cold instability showers may locally drop snow levels to near 500 feet across western Oregon. Some snow accumulations are possible in the higher hills of the northern and central Willamette Valley. Brisk southwesterly winds should keep overnight temperatures in the mid 30s on the valley floor, where roads should stay mainly just wet and accumulating snow is not yet expected... Surface Winds: SSW 15-30 G45 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 45 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3400 feet. Ventilation index 153. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: In the wake of the cold front, cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will bring heavy snow showers to both the coastal and Cascade passes Saturday and Sunday. Total snow accumulations could exceed two feet over the Cascade passes with up to a foot of snow over the coast range passes. Be prepared for extreme winter driving conditions over any mountain passes this weekend. Cold Arctic air will slowly sag southward, into Washington, Saturday and through the Columbia Gorge into Portland as early as Saturday night. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The surface winds will be coming from off the relatively warmer ocean, so ssnow levels will likely remain above the valley floor. Sticking snow will probably get as low as 500 feet Saturday. The snow level will drop to the valley floors, from north to south, Saturday night through Sunday, as the cold Arctic air begins pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. The Arctic cold front has the potential to bring the most significant snow accumulations to the Willamette Valley floor since January, 2004. Accumulating snow, on the valley floors, is likely Sunday through early Monday with several inches possible. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region Sunday night and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will develop in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline around the middle of next week. With cold air already in place, precipitation from that system will fall in the form of snow. It is still too far out to forecast how much snow may fall, but it is looking more likely that the valley will get another measurable snowfall late Wednesday and/or Thursday of next week, with more cold weather to follow. Tomorrow (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level 500 Feet or Lower. 35/39 Sun (14 Dec): Snow. Valley Accumulations Likely. 30/34 Mon (15 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers. Clearing and Turning Much Colder. 23/30 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 18/29 Wed (17 Dec): Increasing Chance of Snow. 17/29 Thu (18 Dec): Snow Likely Early...Decreasing Late. 22/28 Fri (19 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Continued Cold. 20/30 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 12 12:18:45 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 12 Dec 2008 14:18:45 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 12th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Corrected Extended Forecast... ...Next Update Scheduled For 9 am Tuesday, December 16th, 2008... Issued: Friday, December 12th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A highly advertised change in the weather pattern is underway, with an amplifying upper-level ridge of high pressure, in the Gulf of Alaska, sending a strong and cold weather system down the British Columbia coastline towards the Pacific Northwest. After many days with stagnant weather conditions, increasing southerly winds and rapid cooling aloft will combine to greatly improve ventilation across western Oregon today. Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate a rapidly strengthening low-pressure system was centered just off the northern Washington coast late this morning. A broad cloud-shield extended across all of Washington and Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports indicate that olcally heavy rain was moving into northwest Oregon along with strong south winds. The ODA surface analysis showed rapidly increasing southerly gradients across western Oregon. Southerly winds were gusting to about 30 mph in the northern and central Willamette Valley and to about 40 mph along the northern and central Oregon coast. The low-pressure center is forecast to continue to strengthen and move inland, to near Seattle, by late this afternoon and into eastern Washington tonight. That strom track will bring increasingly strong south and southwesterly winds to western Oregon and southwestern Washington this afternoon through tonight. The National Weather Service has issued a High Winds Warning for the northern and central Oregon coast and coastal range, for gusts to 65 mph, through tonight. A Wind Advisory has been issued for the Willamette Valley, through tonight, for gusts to 45 mph. The strongest valley winds will likely be from Salem north to Portland. Gusts to 50 mph are possible, in the Portland area, later this afternoon through early this evening. A strong cold front will bring increasing rain to western Oregon this afternoon. Snow levels have already dropped to about 4000 feet, with ODOT road cameras showing accumulating snow over the Cascade passes. Snow levels will drop at least down to 1000 feet tonight. Valley highs should only climb into the mid 40s. Heavy snow and strong winds will make for blizzard conditions, at times, in the Cascade passes through tonight. A Blizzard Warning has been issued for the Cascade passes through Saturday morning. Winter Storm Warnings have been issued, for the Cascade foothills and coastal passes, for this afternoon through Saturday. The latest National Weather Service forecasts, watches, and warnings may be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ By tonight, cold instability showers may locally drop snow levels to near 500 feet across western Oregon. Some snow accumulations are possible in the higher hills of the northern and central Willamette Valley. Brisk southwesterly winds should keep overnight temperatures in the mid 30s on the valley floor, where roads should stay mainly wet and accumulating snow is not expected...yet... Surface Winds: SSW 15-30 G45 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 45 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3400 feet. Ventilation index 153. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: In the wake of the cold front, cold and unstable northwestery flow aloft will bring heavy snow showers to both the coastal and Cascade passes Saturday and Sunday. Total snow accumulations could exceed two feet over the Cascade passes with up to a foot of snow over the coast range passes. Be prepared for extreme winter driving conditions over any mountain passes this weekend. Cold Arctic air will slowly sag southward, into Washington, Saturday and through the Columbia Gorge into Portland as early as Saturday night. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The surface winds will be coming from off the relatively warmer ocean, so snow levels will likely remain above the valley floor. Sticking snow will probably get as low as 500 feet Saturday in the north valley and 500-1000 feet in the south valley. The snow level will drop to the valley floors, from north to south, Saturday night through Sunday, as the cold Arctic air begins pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. The Arctic cold front has the potential to bring the most significant snow accumulations to the Willamette Valley floor since January, 2004. Accumulating snow, on the valley floors, is likely Sunday through early Monday with several inches possible. Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the region Sunday night and Monday, with snow showers tapering off and temperatures dropping well below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will develop in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline around the middle of next week. With cold air already in place, precipitation from that system will fall in the form of snow. It is still too far out to forecast how much snow may fall, but it is looking more likely that the valley will get another measurable snowfall late Wednesday and Thursday of next week, with more cold weather to follow. Tomorrow (13 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet. 35/41 Sun (14 Dec): Snow. Valley Accumulations Likely. 32/34 Mon (15 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers. Clearing and Turning Much Colder. 23/28 Tue (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 12/25 Wed (17 Dec): Snow Likely Late. 12/28 Thu (18 Dec): Snow Likely...Decreasing Late. 24/28 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Ending...becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 17/23 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 15 09:09:04 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 11:09:04 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 15th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, December 15th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Winter arrived in earnest across the pacific Northwest over the weekend with valley rain and heavy snow in the Cascades starting Friday evening. Snow levels lowered to near 1000 feet Saturday with frequent showers bringing heavy snow to both the coastal range and the Cascades. Some showers mixed snow down to the Willamette Valley floor at times. Cold Arctic air sagged southward, into Washington, Saturday and through the Columbia Gorge, into Portland, by early Sunday morning. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The surface winds were coming from off the relatively warmer ocean, so snow levels remained above the valley floor. The snow level dropped to the valley floors in the Portland area early Sunday, as the cold Arctic air began pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. The Arctic cold front slowly moced south to near Salem by late Sunday afternoon and to Eugene Sunday night. A surface low pressure areas was moving south, off the Oregon Coast, at the same time and throwing moisture over the Arctic cold front. That helped keep the frontal system actively producing snow, as it moved south up the valley. Snow totals were greatest on the west side of the valley, which was closer to the moisture source. Valley floor snowfall amounts varied considerable, but most areas received at least an inch with over 4 inches falling in higher elevations in the north and western valley areas. The Arctic cold front extended from just north of North Bend, along the coast, to near Medford, and across the southern Oregon border to just south of Boise, Idaho at mid morning. Snow levels were at the surface north of the front, including along the coast, where it was snowing this morning at Newport. A surface low-pressure center was just off the extreme southern Oregon coast and continuing to throw some moisture over the Arcitc air mass covering most of Oregon. That was continuing to produce snow showers over mainly southern and eastern Oregon. The air mass was drying out over northwest Oregon with some sunshine breaking out in the north valley. Skies will continue to slowly clear, from north to south, across the Willamette Valley today, as the cold Arctic air pours into the region. Temperatures will stay well below freezing across the valley with northeasterly winds sending windchill values into the single digits. Strong easterly winds in the Porland area will send windchill values to near zero. Surface Winds: N 10-15...East 15-30 G40 near Portland this morning, N 10-15...East 15-30 G40 near Portland this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 15 this morning, NE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2600 feet. Ventilation index 39. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 28. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:44am. Extended Outlook: Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the Willamette Valley tonight, with clearing skies and a fresh snow cover allowing temperatures to drop well down into the teens or even near 10 degrees...especially in wind-sheltered locations. Brisk easterly winds will continue in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The north valley, near Portland, will continue to have dangerously cold windchill values of near zero or below overnight. Tuesday will be a break between stroms with dry Canadian air providing mostly sunny but very cold conditions. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline, and into the Pacific Northwest, Wednesday. The air mass is so cold over the Willamette Valley that any precipitation from this system should fall as snow with accumulations likely. Another reinforcing blast of cold Arctic air will follow that system Thursday and Friday...likely bringing even colder temperatures to the region. The next weather system is forecast to move in over the weekend, with temperatures moderating enough to bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the region. It appears that another reinforcing shot of Arctic air may invade the region early next week, for a return to snowy and cold conditions. Tomorrow (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 12/25 Wed (17 Dec): Snow Likely. 15/30 Thu (18 Dec): Snow Likely...Decreasing Late. 27/30 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Chance of Snow. 24/32 Sun (21 Dec): Wintry Mix Likely. 28/35 Mon (22 Dec): Changing Back to Snow...Colder. 27/33 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 15 11:59:11 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 15 Dec 2008 13:59:11 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 15th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Monday, December 15th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A blast of wintry weather hit the Pacific Northwest over the weekend with valley rain and heavy snow in the Cascades Friday. Snow levels lowered to near 1000 feet Friday night and Saturday with frequent showers bringing heavy snow to both the coastal range and the Cascades. Some showers mixed snow down to the Willamette Valley floor at times. Cold Arctic air sagged southward, into Washington, Saturday and through the Columbia Gorge, into Portland, by early Sunday morning. Ahead of the Arctic cold front, The surface winds were coming from off the relatively warmer ocean, so snow levels remained above the valley floor. The snow level dropped to the valley floor, in the Portland area, early Sunday, as the cold Arctic air began pouring directly into the valley, via the Columbia Gorge. The Arctic cold front slowly marched south to near Salem by late Sunday afternoon and to Eugene Sunday night. A surface low pressure area concurrently moved south, off the Oregon Coast, and circulated moisture over the Arctic cold front. That helped keep the frontal system actively producing snow, as it moved south up the valley. The following is a list of snow totals, as of 10:45 a.m, issued by the National Weather Service: NORTH OREGON CASCADES: TIMBERLINE LODGE........ 27 INCHES 6000 FT MOUNT HOOD MEADOWS...... 24 INCHES 5250 FT TOMBSTONE PASS.......... 18 INCHES 4200 FT GOVERNMENT CAMP......... 19 INCHES 3995 FT SANTIAM JUNCTION........ 13 INCHES 3750 FT LANE COUNTY CASCADES: MCKENZIE SNOTEL......... 30 INCHES 4800 FT CASCADE SUMMIT ......... 24 INCHES LITTLE MEADOWS SNOTEL... 21 INCHES WILLAMETTE PASS......... 19 INCHES 5130 FT SALT CREEK FALLS........ 17 INCHES 4000 FT COAST RANGE: SADDLE MOUNTAIN......... 16 INCHES 3250 FT WILSON RIVER SUMMIT..... 11 INCHES 1610 FT SUNSET SUMMIT........... 11 INCHES 1200 FT VERNONIA................ 3 INCHES NORTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY: PORTLAND (WEST HILLS).... 5.5 INCHES OREGON CITY.............. 5 INCHES WEST LINN................ 5 INCHES PORTLAND (SKYLINE)....... 4.5 INCHES LAKE OSWEGO.............. 4.5 INCHES BEAVERTON................ 4 INCHES TUALATIN................ 4 INCHES SHERWOOD................ 4 INCHES DAMASCUS................. 4 INCHES NEWBERG.................. 1 INCH TROUTDALE............... 1 INCH PORTLAND AIRPORT AREA... 1 INCH CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY: MONROE.................. 4.5 INCHES DALLAS.................. 4 INCHES MCMINNVILLE............. 3.5 INCHES SUMMIT.................. 3.5 INCHES BLODGETT................. 3 INCHES ALBANY................... 3 INCHES CORVALLIS................ 3 INCHES KIEZER.................. 3 INCHES SALEM................... 2 INCHES SOUTHERN WILLAMETTE VALLEY: EUGENE.................. 3.5 - 5.0 INCHES SPRINGFIELD............. 2.0 - 3.5 INCHES COTTAGE GROVE........... 3 INCHES COLUMBIA RIVER GORGE: HOOD RIVER.............. 4 INCHES COAST: ASTORIA................. 2 INCHES ROCKAWAY BEACH.......... 2 INCHES FLORENCE................ 1 INCH TILLAMOOK............... 1 INCH LINCOLN CITY............ 1 INCH OCEAN PARK.............. 0.5 INCH OYSTERVILLE............ 0.5 INCH The Arctic cold front extended south to near the Oregon/California border late this morning. Snow levels were at the surface north of the front, including along the coast all the way south to Brookings. Strong offshore surface flow was continuing to pour cold Arctic air into the region. A surface low-pressure center was just off the northern California coast and continuing to throw some moisture over southern and eastern Oregon. Light snow showers were still falling as far north as Eugene, west of the Cascades, and all the way north to Pendleton in eastern Oregon. The air mass was drying out over northwest Oregon with some sunshine in the north valley. Skies will continue to slowly clear, from north to south, across the Willamette Valley today, as the cold Arctic air pours into the region and the low-prresure center off the Californais coast continues to move south. Temperatures will stay well below freezing across the valley with northeasterly winds sending windchill values into the teens. Strong easterly winds, gusting over 40 mph, will send windchill values into the single digits in the Porland area. Surface Winds: N 10-15...East 15-30 G40 near Portland this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2600 feet. Ventilation index 39. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 28. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 48%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:44am. Extended Outlook: Drier and cold Canadian air will continue to move into the Willamette Valley tonight, with clearing skies and a fresh snow cover allowing temperatures to drop well down into the teens or even near 10 degrees...especially in wind-sheltered locations. Brisk easterly winds will continue in the Portland area with northerly winds in the remainder of the valley. The north valley, near Portland, will continue to have dangerously cold wind-chill values of near or below zero overnight. Tuesday will be dry and cold with winds decreasing some but remaining briskly offshore with low wind-chill values. The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline, and into the Pacific Northwest, Wednesday. The air mass will initially be cold enough for the precipitation to begin across western Oregon as snow. However, the track of the storm may bring low-pressure inland across westner Washington. If that occurs, then enough onshore flow may develop to change the lowest elevations in the Willamette Valley to rain. Snow will likely change to rain along the coast. Another cold Arctic front is forecast to bringsnow to northern Oregon Thursday morning and sweep south across all of the state by Thursday night. Accumuling snow is likely, once again, across most of the state...including the Willamette Valley. Cold Arctic air will pur into the regin Friday, bringing dry and very cold conditions by Friday night. The next weather system is forecast to move in over the weekend, with temperatures moderating enough to bring a wintry mix of precipitation to the region. It appears that another reinforcing shot of Arctic air may invade the region early next week, for a return to snowy and cold conditions. Tomorrow (16 Dec): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 12/25 Wed (17 Dec): Snow Likely...Possibly Changing to Rain South of the Portland Area. 15/34 Thu (18 Dec): Rain or Snow Turning to Snow. Accumulations Likely. 27/35 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Chance of Snow. 24/32 Sun (21 Dec): Wintry Mix Likely. 28/35 Mon (22 Dec): Changing Back to Snow...Colder. 27/33 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 16 09:00:00 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Dec 2008 11:00:00 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 16th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, December 16th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Cold and dry Arctic air will bring a mostly sunny day to Oregon today with ofshore flow across western Oregon. Morning minimums were the coldest of the year with Corvallis dipping to 9 degrees and teens common across the Willamette Valley. Highs today should stay below freezing with lighter northerly winds. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 10 this morning, NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1600 feet. Ventilation index 19. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 29. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:45am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline, and into the Pacific Northwest, Wednesday. The air mass will initially be cold enough for the precipitation to begin as snow across western Oregon with some accumulation likely. The track of the storm may bring low-pressure inland, across southwestern Washington, late Wednesday. If that occurs, then enough onshore flow may develop to change the snow to rain along the Oregon coast, and perhaps the lowest elevations in the southern and central Willamette Valley, late in the day. It appears that conditions will likely stay cold enough for precipitation to remain as snow in the Portland area, due to cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge, but it is possible that even the Portland area could make the transition to rain late in the day. Another cold Arctic front is forecast to drop south across Washington and into northern Oregon Thursday morning. The Arctic cold front will advance south across western Oregon during the day Thurssday...changing all precipitation back to snow with accumulations likely. An even colder surge of Arctic air will pour into the region Friday, with skies gradually clearing and easterly winds increasing...especially in the Portland area. Another weather system is forecast to move onshore over the weekend and will likely produce a wintry mix of precipitation across the region. The latest comuter models suggest that this system will track to near the central Oregon coast, which would keep precipitation mainly in the form of snow across western Oregon. Snow totals from that system could potentially be very significant., It appears that another reinforcing shot of Arctic air may invade the region early next week, for a continued cold conditions. Wed (17 Dec): Snow Likely...Possibly Changing to Rain...Mainly South of Portland. 15/35 Thu (18 Dec): Rain or Snow Turning to Snow. Accumulations Likely. 31/35 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Mostly Sunny, Cold, and Windy. 12/25 Sun (21 Dec): Wintry Mix Likely...Perhaps All Snow. 20/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers...Continued Cold. 20/27 Tue (23 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cold. 15/27 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 16 11:54:48 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Dec 2008 13:54:48 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 16th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, December 16th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Cold and dry Arctic air, clear skies, and lighter winds made for the coldest morning in many years across most of Oregon. Coastal areas fell into the mid 20s, with freezing temperatures extending south to the California border. The interior valleys dropped mostly into the teens in areas away from the Gorge winds. Below zero readings were common across central and eastern Oregon. The following are some morning low temperatures: Coast: Newport..... 23 degrees Astoria..... 24 degrees North Bend.. 25 degrees Brookings... 31 degrees Willamette Valley: Corvallis... 9 degrees Eugene...... 10 degrees Hillsboro... 12 degrees Salem....... 18 degrees Aurora...... 20 degrees Portland.... 20 degrees Central and Eastern Oregon: Hermiston... -16 degrees Redmond..... -12 degrees Meacham..... -11 degrees Pendleton... -10 degrees Baker City.. -9 degrees Burns....... 6 degrees The Dalles.. 7 degrees Late-morning satellite imagery showed sunny skies across western Oregon with areas of valley low clouds east of the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed the Arctic cold front had pushed south into northern California and a very cold high-pressure area was centered over northeastern Oregon. Northerly gradients prevailed across eastern Oregon with offshore flow across western Oregon, extending off the coast to the Arctic frontal boundary. Today will be a break from the snow but not from the cold. Midday temperatures had only warmed into the 30s along the coast and the mid 20s in the Willamette Valley. It was still very cold east of the Cascades with much of northeastern Oregon still near zero. Even with plenty of sunshine, valley highs should only climb to near 30 degrees this afternoon with north-northeasterly winds. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1600 feet. Ventilation index 19. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 29. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:45am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to drop down the British Columbia coastline, and into the Pacific Northwest, tomorrow morning. The air mass will initially be cold enough for the precipitation to begin as snow across all of western Oregon, with the possible exception of the central and south coast. Snow will likely begin along the north coast in the early morning hours, and spread into the northern Willamette Valley by mid-morning. The snow should increase, from north-to-south across the Willamette Valley during the late-morning hours tomorrow. Accumulating snow in the Willamette Valley is likely with greater amounts in the north valley. The forecast track of the storm brings low-pressure inland, across southwestern Washington, late Wednesday. If that occurs, then enough southerly wind may develop to change the snow to sleet, freezing rain, and eventually rain in the lowest elevations in the southern and central Willamette Valley. That transition is likely to occur quickly along the immediate coast. It appears that cold outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, may be sufficient to keep precipitation in the Portland area entirely as snow, and it is likely that snow will previal across southwestern Washington. Total snowfall amounts will be highly dependent on whether and when a transition to rain occurs. The north valley will likely see around 2-4 inches, and perhaps more, if the precipitation stays entirely as snow. The south valley will likely transition to a wintry mix and then rain Wednesday evening, but not before picking up from 1-3 inches of snow. Any transition to above freezing air will be brief...lasting at most about 12 hours. Another cold Arctic front is forecast to drop south across Washington late Wednesday and into northern Oregon Thursday morning. The Arctic cold front will advance south across western Oregon during the day Thurssday...changing all precipitation back to snow with additional accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches possible. An even colder surge of Arctic air will pour into the region Friday, with skies gradually clearing and easterly winds increasing...especially in the Portland area. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny, cold, and windy with temperatures staying below freezing across the valley. Another weather system is forecast to approach the coastline Sunday. The track of that system is crucial in regards to how much snow and/or ice western Oregon will receive. The latest comuter models suggest that the low-pressure center will track to near the central Oregon coast, which would keep precipitation mainly in the form of snow across the Willamette Valley. Snow totals from that system could potentially be significant. If the storm tracks a little farther north than currently forecast, then sleet and freezing rain chances increase. It appears that another reinforcing shot of Arctic air may invade the region early next week, for a continuation of cold conditions. Wed (17 Dec): Snow Spreading South...Wintry Mix Changing to Rain South of Portland. 15/35 Thu (18 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers Turning to Snow Showers. Accumulations Likely. 31/35 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Mostly Sunny, Cold, and Windy. 12/25 Sun (21 Dec): Snow and Windy...Possible Wintry Mix. Significant Accumulations Likely. 20/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers...Continued Cold. 20/27 Tue (23 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cold. 15/27 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 17 08:56:56 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2008 10:56:56 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 17th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, December 17th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: An Arctic air mass remained in place across Oregon overnight with mostly clear skies allowing Willamette Valley temperatures to drop mostly into the teens, before clouds increased and with some warming this morning. Eugene dropped down to 10 degrees, McMinnville dipped to 11 degrees, and Corvallis hit 13. Hillsboro and Salem bottomed out at 14 degrees. Minimums along the coast were in the mid 20s. It was very cold east of the Cascades, where Burns recorded a bone-chilling 22 degrees below zero early this morning. Lakeview dropped to 17 below zero and Baker City hit 14 below. The Columbia basin of northeast Oregon was also very cold this morning. Hermiston dropped to 12 degrees below zero and Pendleton fell to 6 below. The cold air mass sets the stage for a mixed bag of wintry precipitation across the region today, as a weather system approaches from the northwest. Surface and satellite observations showed a low-pressure center developing near Vancouver Island, British Columbia at mid-morning. Clouds had already advanced across Washington and most of Oregon. Doppler radar indicated light precipitation had spread across most of western Washington and into northwest Oregon. The air mass was cold enough for the precipitation to begin as snow across all of westner Washington and along the northern Oregon Coast. However, increasing southerly winds quickly warmed coastal temperatures above frezing and changed precipitation there to rain...even along the northern Washington Coast. The big question this morning is how much warming will occur inland, especially for areas exposed to continued easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge. Temperatures in the Willamette were still in the 20s at mid-morning. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable warming aloft, with temperatures at 2500 feet near the freezing mark. Warmer air aloft was also evident across western Washington with some interior locations there reporting sleet mixing with the light snow. As the low-pressure area tracks southward this morning, precipitation will increase across western Washington and Oregon, mostly in the form of snow. Southerly winds at the surface and aloft, south of the Portland area, should bring enough waring by early this afternoon change the snow to rain in the Willamette Valley. There may be some sleet or brief freezing rain during that transition. Cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge will delay that transition in the Portland area...especially for areas close to the Gorge. Some snow and sleet may accumulate in the Willamette Valley this morning, before the likely transition to rain occurs. The greatest accumulations will be in the Portland area. Valley temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 30s this afternoon with continued southerly winds making for good ventilation conditions. Snow levels should jump to about 1000-1500 feet across western Oregon this afternoon with significant snow accumulations at higher elevations. The coast range will likely receive 4-8 inches of new snow with over a foot of new snow in the Cascades. The warming of the lowest elevations across western Oregon will be brief, however, with another Arctic cold front slated to move south, across Oregon, on Thursday. More on that in the extended outlook... Surface Winds: S 10-20 this morning, S 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 30 this morning, SSW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 78%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: Another cold Arctic front is forecast to drop south across Washington late Wednesday and into northern Oregon Thursday morning. The Arctic cold front will advance south across western Oregon Thurssday...dropping temperatures back below freezing and changing all precipitation back to snow. Accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches are liklely. Another surge of cold Arctic air will pour into the region Friday, with skies gradually clearing. Easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will increase, creating very low wind-chill values in the north valley near Portland. Clouds will increase Saturday from the next weather system with increasing cold easterly winds poouring out of the Columbia Gorge into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley. The track of the next weather system is crucial in regards to how much snow and/or ice western Oregon will receive. The latest comuter models suggest that the low-pressure center will stall offshore, keeping cold air in place across western Oregon for a wintry bag of precipitation on Sunday. Snow totals could potentially be significant. It appears that another reinforcing shot of Arctic air may invade the region early next week, for a continuation of cold conditions. There is a chance of snow again by Christmas Eve. Tomorrow (18 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers Turning to Snow Showers. 2-4 inches Likely. 31/38 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Increasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. 12/25 Sun (21 Dec): Snow and Windy...Possible Wintry Mix. Accumulations Likely. 20/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers...Continued Cold. 25/29 Tue (23 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cold. 18/31 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Snow. 20/32 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 17 11:57:18 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Dec 2008 13:57:18 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 17th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Wednesday, December 17th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now now 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: Surface and satellite observations showed a low-pressure center developing near Vancouver Island, British Columbia late this morning with a warm front pushing into western Washington and northwestern Oregon. The air mass was cold enough for precipitation to begin as snow along the northern Oregon coast early this morning, but that quickly changed to rain, as increasing southlery winds warmed temperatures well above freezing. Clouds had already advanced across the region by midday with a wintry mix of precipitation types across western Wsahington and northwest Oregon. Light snow was falling over eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon, where the low-level cold air is still very entrenched. Southerly winds, locally gusting to 30 mph, had warmed Willamette Valley temperatures to near freezing by late this morning with a wintry mix of precipitation reported as far south as Salem. Doppler radar showed precipitation extending south to near Corvallis. Warmer air aloft was also making it into southwestern Washington with some interior locations there reporting rain mixing with the light snow. Snow was increasing in the Portland area late this morning. As the low-pressure area tracks southward, along the Washington Coast, this afternoon, precipitation will increase across western Washington and Oregon. Brisk southerly surface winds should lift snow levels to between 1000 and 1500 feet in the Willamette Valley later this afternoon. A wintry mix is likely during that transition, along the valley floor. Cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge will delay the transition to rain in the Portland area, where minor accumulations of snow and ice are possible. Some light snow and sleet may accumulate on the Willamette Valley floors early this afternoon, before the likely transition to rain occurs. Valley temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 30s later this afternoon with continued southerly winds making for good ventilation conditions. With snow levels not lifting above about 1500 feet, significant snow accumulations are liekly at higher elevations. The coast range will receive about 4-8 inches of new snow with over a foot of new snow in the Cascades. Rain and snow showers will increase across western Oregon tonight, as a vigorus upper-level trough drops into the region. Snow levels will likely drop at least down to 500 feet and perhaps locally to the valley floor, especially in the north valley. A couple of inches of snow are possible, above 500 feet. Temperatures will fall back into the low to mid 30s. Heavy snow showers are likely in the coast range and in the Cascades with significant accumulations. Surface Winds: S 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 78%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: Another cold Arctic front is forecast to drop south across Washington late Wednesday and into northern Oregon Thursday morning. The Arctic cold front will advance south across western Oregon Thurssday...dropping temperatures back below freezing and changing all precipitation back to snow. Snow showers will continue into early Friday, with valley accumulations on the order of 2-4 inches liklely. Another surge of cold Arctic air will pour into the region Friday afternoon and night, with skies gradually clearing. Increasing easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, will create very low wind-chill values in the north valley, near Portland. Clouds will increase Saturday from the next weather system with increasing cold easterly winds pouring out of the Columbia Gorge into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley with a chance of snow by Saturday evening. Western Washington and Oregon are in for a wintry mix of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday with easterly Gorge winds helping to keep the low-level cold air in place, especially in the north valley. The latest comuter models solutions are beginning to deverge, beginning Monday. Some models show a warm-up early next week, while others bring a reinforcing surge of Arctic air back into the Willamette Valley. My forecast reflects the later solution, but my confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday is below normal. Tomorrow (18 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers Turning to Snow Showers. 2-4 inches Likely. 31/38 Fri (19 Dec): Snow Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Increasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. 12/25 Sun (21 Dec): Snow and Windy...Possible Wintry Mix. Accumulations Likely. 20/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Snow Showers...Continued Cold. 25/29 Tue (23 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cold. 18/31 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Snow. 20/32 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Dec 18 08:58:35 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2008 10:58:35 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, December 18th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, December 18th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A warm front brought a wintry mix of precipitation to northwestern Oregon and southwestern Washington Wednesday. The precipitation started generally as snow but eventually turned to rain below about 1000 feet, as brisk southerly winds warmed the lowest levels of the atmosphere above freezing. Some of the higher locations in the north valley received several inches of snow, before the changeover to light rain showers and fog late in the day. Western Oregon stayed in the warm-sector of this storm overnight with onshore flow keeping surface temperatures mostly above freezing below 1000 feet. Snow showers continued to fall above 1000 feet. The Salem sounding this morning showed very cold air aloft with the freezing level measured at just 2200 feet. Transport winds were southwesterly, which was keeping relatively warmer air near the surface. That will make for good ventilation conditions today with mixing heights rising to near 5000 feet this afternoon. Mid-morning valley temperatures were in the mid 30s and should climb no higher than the upper 30s this afternoon. The mid-morning surface analysis showed a very complx weather pattern over Washington and Oregon. A low-pressure center was over extreme northwest Washington with a cold front extending southward to the northern Oregon Coast. In addition, another cold front snaked across the Washington/Oregon border, separting Arcitc air over Washington from more mild Pacific air over Oregon. The Arctic cold front is forecast to reamin nearly stationary through this afternoon, before sagging south across northern Oregon tonight and Friday. The cold front along the coast is forecast to move inland today with frequent showers across western Oregon. Snow levels will drop to near the valley floors this afternoon with local accumulations of wet snow possible. The air aloft is continuing to cool with time, as a cold upper-level trough moves onshore. By tonight, showers will be mostly of snow across the entire Willamette Valley with additional accumultions of an inch or two possible. At the same time, the cold Arcitc frontal boundary will be slowly moving south, into the northern Willamette Valley. Temperatures will fall below freezing in valley overnight. The combination of snow showers and colder air moving into the valley will likely make for difficult travel conditions, as wet roadways turn icy. Surface Winds: S 10-15 this morning, S 10-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 15 this morning, WSW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 38. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 82%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: Snow showers will continue into early Friday, with valley accumulations on the order of 1-2 inches likely. Arctic air will seep, from north to south, across the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon and night. High temperatures will not make it out of the 20s in the north valley with near 30 in the south valley. Clouds will increase Saturday from the next weather system with increasing cold easterly winds pouring out of the Columbia Gorge into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley with a chance of snow by Saturday evening. Western Washington and Oregon are in for a wintry mix of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday with easterly Gorge winds helping to keep the low-level cold air in place, especially in the north valley. Some models show a warm-up early next week, while others bring a weak reinforcing surge of Arctic air back into the Willamette Valley. It is possble that the north valley will stay in the cold air, near Portland, while the central and south valley transition to a more mild air mass. It appears that warmer weather will take over by Christmas. Tomorrow (19 Dec): Snow Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Increasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. 15/25 Sun (21 Dec): Snow and Windy...Wintry Mix South...Spreading North. 23/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Rain or Snow Showers. 28/33 Tue (23 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. 25/35 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. 31/37 Thu (25 Dec): Chance of Rain. 33/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Dec 18 12:00:03 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Dec 2008 14:00:03 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, December 18th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Thursday, December 18th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: The late-morning surface analysis continued to show a very complx weather pattern over Washington and Oregon. A low-pressure center was just northeast of Hoquiam, on the central Washington Coast. A cold front, extending from the low-pressure center, moved through the Portland area earlier this morning and extended back aouthwestward to near Salem and off the coast, south of Newport late this morning. The font produced locally brief heavy, snow to the valley floor, with minaor accumulations...especially in the Portland area. The air in the wake of this front was still circulating inland from off of the ocean, so the lowest levels of the aim mass remain above freezing across the WIllamette Valley. The air aloft is getting progressively colder, however, with the snow level at about 500 feet. In addition, an Arctic cold front snakes across the Washington/Oregon border, separting Arctic air over Washington from more mild Pacific air over Oregon. The Arctic cold front lies between Troutdale and The Dalles, in the Columbia Gorge. Troutdale was 33 degrees with calm winds late this morning, while locally heavy snow was falling from The Dalles to Pendleton with temperatures in the low to mid 20s. The Arctic front is forecast to reamin nearly stationary through this afternoon. Onshore flow will keep showers of rain and snow going through this evening with snow levels near the valley floor. By tonight, showers will be mostly of snow across the entire Willamette Valley with additional accumultions of an inch or two possible. At the same time, cold Arctic air will begin spilling out of the western Columbia Gorge into the Portland area...dropping the snow level there to the surface and freezing wet road surfaces. Temperatures will also fall below freezing in valley overnight. The combination of snow showers and colder air moving into the valley will likely make for difficult travel conditions, as wet roadways turn icy. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 38. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 82%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: Snow showers will continue Friday, with local valley accumulations of 1-2 inches possible, before the snow showers taper off Friday evening. Arctic air will slowly seep, from north to south, across the Willamette Valley Friday afternoon and night. High temperatures will not make it out of the 20s in the north valley but may get near freezing in the south valley. Clouds will increase Saturday from the next weather system with increasing cold easterly winds pouring out of the Columbia Gorge into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley with a chance of snow by Saturday evening. Western Washington and Oregon are in for a wintry mix of precipitation Saturday night and Sunday with easterly Gorge winds helping to keep the low-level cold air in place, especially in the north valley. The latest computer models show a warm-up early next week for the Willamette Valley. It is possible that the Portland area will stay under the influence of cold air pouring out from the Gorge throug Christmas Eve, while the central and south valley transition to a more mild air mass. It appears that warmer weather will take over by Christmas. Tomorrow (19 Dec): Snow Showers Ending...Becoming Partly Cloudy. Continued Cold. 18/27 Sat (20 Dec): Increasing Clouds, Cold, and Windy. 15/25 Sun (21 Dec): Snow and Windy...Wintry Mix South...Spreading North. 23/32 Mon (22 Dec): Decreasing Rain or Snow Showers. 28/33 Tue (23 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. 25/35 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. 31/37 Thu (25 Dec): Chance of Rain. 33/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 19 09:02:22 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Dec 2008 11:02:22 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 19th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, December 19th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level trough maintained snow shower activity overnight across most of northwest Oregon with some areas getting minor accumulations, even on the valley floor. The surface analysis showed a weak low-pressure center moving south, near Astoria, with an Arctic cold front extending from it eastward along the Washington/Oregon border. To the north of the Arctic boundary winds are north-northeasterly across most of Washington and temperatures drop into the teens and low 20s across western Washington. Most of Oregon remained just south of the Arctic cold front at mid-morning with weak onshore flow keeping temperatures near freezing west of the Cascades. The colder Arctic air was able to seep into Astoria, on the extreme north coast, where the temperature had dropped to 28 degrees with light snow. Arctic air had also penetrated into the Columbia Basin, of northeastern Oregon, and into the eastern Columbia Gorge, where temperatures were in the teens. The morning sounding over Salem showed continued cooling aloft, since Thursday, with the freezing level at the surface. Weak onshore flow was indicated by light west-southwesterly transport winds, which will turn more westerly this afternoon. Cold air aloft and westerly transport winds will provide good ventilation for stack burning today. Satellite and Radar imaagery showed snow showers continuing to rotate onshore with upslope conditions enhancing the snow showers over the coast range and in the Cascades. A strong north-northwesterly jet stream will actively keep snow showers falling today, from the coast to the Cascades, with local valley floor accumulations of 1-2 inches possible, and 3-6 inches in the coast range and Cascades foothills. High temperatures will not make it above the mid 30s today and will likely fall this afternoon in the north valley, as the Arctic air advances south. Snow showers will slowly taper off this evening and tonight, as colder and drier Arctic air pushes south into the region. It may take until early Saturday morning for the colder and drier Arctic air to make it all the way south to Eugene. Skies will only partially clear tonight with valley temperatures falling into the upper teens to mid 20s. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 12 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2100 feet. Ventilation index 25. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 67%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:47am. Extended Outlook: A moist and warmer Pacific storm will ride move onshore, into the cold dome of air over westner Oregon, Saturday. Falling pressures offshore will increase the cold easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley with snow developing by midday...possibly changing to sleet and then to freezing rain in the central and south valley saturday evening, as the intensity of the precipitation increases. As the air aloft continues to warm, precipitation should also turn to sleet, and eventually to freezing rain, in the north valley. The timing of that transition is difficult to forecast, but it will most likely hold off until Saturday night, as far north as Portland. Easterly Gorge winds will help to keep the low-level cold air in place longer in the north valley. Snow accumulations will be greatest in the Portland area, where the precipitation will remain in the form of snow the longest. Valley snowfall amounts will likely have a wide range, with as little as one inch in the south valley to as much as 6 inches near the Columbia Gorge. Some locations may also get a significant ice accumulation, due to freezing rain. By Sunday morning, it is likely that the south valley will have changed to plain rain with temperatures well above freezing. The north valley, however, may still have enough cold low-level air for sleet and freezing rain...especially near the Columbia Gorge. Colder air aloft will move over the region Sunday afternoon and night, with snow levels dropping to below 3000 feet. That should end the sleet and freezing rain with precipitation becoming either rain or snow...depending on the exposure to cold Gorge easterly winds. Precipitation will likely remain as rain in the south valley but may change to snow in the Portland area...especially near the Columbia Gorge. Heavy snow is likely in the mountains, with the snow level dropping to 2000 feet Sunday night. The forecast beynd this weekend is very dependent upon how much cold air remains in the Columiba basin...to be pulled westward through the Columbia Gorge ahead of approaching storms. That makes all the difference in what form future precipitatin will take...especially in the north valley. A cold upper-level trough will move directly over Oregon Monday with the snow level dropping to about 1500 feet. Showers will taper off by Monday night and Tuesday. Cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge my keep the snow level locally near the valley floor in the Portland area, but central and south valley temperatures will likely be too warm for valley floor snow. Another cold system in now forecast to drop into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, Christmas Eve. Snow levels will be around 1000 feet, but may drop to the valley floors, if there is still enough low-level cold air available, via the Columbia Gorge. Showers will taper off late on Christmas, with snow levels remaining very low. A white Christmas is possible for much of the state, especially for areas above 1000 feet. Sat (20 Dec): Snow Developing...Possibly Changing to Sleet and Then Freezing Rain. 25/30 Sun (21 Dec): Rain South...Wintry Mix North. Rain or Snow North...Rain South PM. 30/37 Mon (22 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers North. Rain Showers South. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 32/38 Tue (23 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level near 1000 Feet. 25/35 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. Snow Level Near or below 1000 Feet. 31/37 Thu (25 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level Near or Below 1000 Feet. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cool. 30/39 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 19 12:14:37 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:14:37 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 19th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE The ODA meteorologist is scheduled for vacation until Monday 12/29/2008. That may change depending on weather conditions. You can access National weather Service forecasts 24 hours a day at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Issued: Friday, December 19th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level trough maintained snow shower activity this morning across western Oregon with some areas getting minor accumulations, even on the valley floor. The late-morning surface analysis showed a weak low-pressure center moving south, near Astoria, with a nearly stationary Arctic cold front extending from it eastward along the Washington/Oregon border. To the north of the Arctic boundary winds are north-northeasterly across most of Washington. Temperatures are in the low to mid 20s across western Washington and single digits in eastern Washington. Most of Oregon remained just south of the Arctic cold front late this morning with light southwesterly winds helping temperatures stay mostly just above freezing on the valley floors. The colder Arctic air was able to seep into Astoria and Scappoose, west of the Cascades, where temperatures are below freezing with light snow. Arctic air had also penetrated into the Columbia Basin, of northeastern Oregon, and into the eastern Columbia Gorge, where temperatures were in the teens to low 20s. The morning sounding over Salem showed continued cooling aloft, since Thursday, with the freezing level near the surface. Satellite and Radar imaagery showed snow showers continuing to rotate onshore with upslope conditions enhancing the snow showers over the coast range and in the Cascades. A strong north-northwesterly jet stream will actively keep snow showers falling today, from the coast to the Cascades, with local valley floor accumulations of 1-2 inches possible, and 3-6 inches in the coast range and Cascades foothills. High temperatures will not make it above the mid 30s today and will likely hold steady or fall this afternoon in the extreme north valley, as the Arctic air slowly advances south into the Portland area. Snow showers will slowly taper off this evening and tonight, as colder and drier Arctic air pushes further south into the valley. It may take until early Saturday morning for the colder and drier Arctic air to make it all the way south to Eugene. Skies will only partially clear tonight, but valley temperatures will fall well below freezing. Wet road surfaces will freeze...making for hazardous driving conditions. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2100 feet. Ventilation index 25. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 67%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:47am. Extended Outlook: A moist and warmer Pacific storm will move onshore, into the cold dome of air over western Oregon, Saturday. Falling pressures offshore will increase the cold easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, into the north valley. Temperatures will stay below freezing across the valley with snow developing by midday...possibly changing to sleet and then to freezing rain in the central and south valley Saturday evening, as the intensity of the precipitation increases. As the air aloft continues to warm, snow levels will jump to near 6000 feet. Precipitation in the western valleys and the mountain passes should turn to sleet, and eventually to freezing rain, where cold low-level persists. The timing of that transition is difficult to forecast, but it will most likely hold off until Saturday night, as far north as Portland. Sub-freezing air will continue to pour out of the Columbia Gorge, into the Portland area. For that reason, snow and/or ice accumulations will be greatest in the Portland area. Valley snowfall amounts will likely have a wide range, with as little as one inch in the south valley to as much as 6 inches near the Columbia Gorge. Some locations may also get a significant ice accumulation, due to freezing rain. By Sunday morning, it is likely that the south valley will have changed to plain rain with temperatures well above freezing. The north valley, however, may still have enough cold low-level air for sleet and freezing rain...especially near the Columbia Gorge. Colder air aloft will move over the region Sunday afternoon and night, with snow levels dropping to below 3000 feet. That should end the sleet and freezing rain across western Oregon, with precipitation becoming either rain or snow...depending on elevation and exposure to cold Gorge easterly winds. Precipitation will likely remain as rain in the south valley but may change to snow in the Portland area...especially near the Columbia Gorge. Heavy snow is likely in the mountains, with the snow level dropping to 2000 feet Sunday night. The forecast beyond this weekend is very dependent upon how much cold air remains in the Columbia basin...to be pulled westward through the Columbia Gorge ahead of approaching storms. If that air is cold enough, then there is still a chance for low-elevation snowfall in the Willamette Valley...especially in the Portland area. A cold upper-level trough will move directly over Oregon Monday with the snow level dropping to about 1500 feet. Showers will taper off by Monday night and Tuesday. Cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge my keep the snow level locally near the valley floor in the Portland area, but central and south valley temperatures will likely be too warm for valley floor snow. Another cold system is forecast to drop into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, Christmas Eve. Snow levels will be around 1000 feet, but may drop to the valley floors, if there is still enough low-level cold air available, via the Columbia Gorge. Showers will taper off late on Christmas, with snow levels remaining very low. A white Christmas is possible for much of the state, especially for areas above 1000 feet. Sat (20 Dec): Snow Developing...Possibly Changing to Sleet and Then Freezing Rain. 25/30 Sun (21 Dec): Rain South...Wintry Mix North. Rain or Snow North...Rain South PM. 30/37 Mon (22 Dec): Rain or Snow Showers North. Rain Showers South. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 32/38 Tue (23 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level near 1000 Feet. 25/35 Wed (24 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow. Snow Level Near or below 1000 Feet. 31/37 Thu (25 Dec): Chance of Rain or Snow Showers. Snow Level Near or Below 1000 Feet. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Partly Cloudy and Cool. 30/39 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 22 09:20:45 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Dec 2008 11:20:45 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 22nd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, December 22nd, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A moist Pacifc storm system approached the coastline Saturday, inducing strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, gusting over 60 mph at the west end of the Gorge and to about 40 mph in the Portland area. That pulled low-level Arctic air, from the Columbia basin, into northwestern Oregon. Temperatures dropped into the 20s, from about Salem northward in the Willamette Valley, as abundant warm and moist air circulated onshore over the top of the cold dome. That brought a substantial amount of snow and ice to northwestern Oregon. There was enough warming aloft, by Saturday night, for the snow to turn to sleet and freezing rain across much of the northern Willamette Valley, with many areas receiving about one-quarter of an inch of ice over the top of 6-10 inches of snow. Meanwhile, the cold Arcitc air was not able to penetrate southward in the Willamette Valley much beyond Salem, where just plain rain fell from this system. The storm was not able to scour out the low-level cold air from the Columbia Basin nor from over northwestern Oregon. As the associated upper-level trough approached the coastline Sunday, cooling aloft wiped out the above freezing layer of air over the Arctic dome and turned precipitation mostly back to snow over northwestern Oregon. Most areas received another 2-3 inches of snow accumulation, with the snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again, areas south of about Salem received plain rain showers with temperatures just above freezing. A summary of snow and ice totals for western Oregon is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR The cold upper-level trough will move over western Oregon this morning. Shower acticity increased eaarly this morning, and satellite and radar imagery showed an organized band of showers rotating into western Oregon...mainly just south of Portland to Eugene. The surface analysis showed a low-pressure center dropping south, along the coastline, to near Newport. That was helping to draw the Arctic air further south, into the Willamette Valley, than it has been during this entire episode. Temperatures were nearing the freezing mark in Corvallis and had dropped into the upper 30s in Eugene. Rain could mix with or turn to freezing rain, sleet, and/or snow in the Albany and Corvallis areas later this morning. It is less likely, but mot impossible, that some wintry precipitation could also make it as far south as Eugene. The bottom line is that it will stay well below freezing in the north valley, with snow showers likely today. In addition, cold air could spill far enough south today to bring wintry precipitation to areas that have not yet seen much, if any, from this event. Mid-morning Willamette Valley temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s, from Salem north to Portland, in the mid 30s in the Albany/Corvallis areas, and in the upper 30s in Eugene. Most valley temperatures will hold steady or fall during the day today, as the upper-level trough moves over the region. The north coast will also likely see snow showers today with snow showers possibly extending as far south as Lincoln City. Rain showers will fall along the central and south coast. Locally heavy snow showers will continue over the coast range and the Cascade passes today. Showers will taper off across all of western Oregon tonight, as the upper-level trough pushes into eastern Oregon. Overnight temperatures should range from the low 20s near Portland to the low 30s near Eugene. The latest warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: This Morning...N 5-10 north valley; S 5-10 south valley This Afternoon...SW 5-10 south valley; NW 5-10 north valley Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, NNW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1800 feet. Ventilation index 27. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 82%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:48am. Extended Outlook: Tuesday should bring a small break in the weather, with a transitory ridge of high pressure bringing some partial clearing to western Oregon. The cold air mass will remain in place over the region with high temperatures not likely goin above freezing in the Portland area and struggling into the mid to upper 30s in the central and southern Willamette Valley. The next significant weather event will involve a system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Enough cold air will be in place, ahead of this storm, for precipitation to begin in the form of snow for most of the Willamette Valley, especially from Salem north. However, this system had the potential to turn the surface winds southerly in the valley by Wednesday afternoon...warming the lowest levels above freezing and lifting the snow level to about 500-1000 feet. That transition will be slowest in the Portland area, where significant snow and ice may first accumulate. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level between 500 and 1000 feet. It will likely be a White Christmas for the north valley, because of the snow already on the ground. Locally heavy new snow is possible in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow level will progressively drop Sunday and Monday to as low as 1000 feet in the north. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Tomorrow (23 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Snow Showers. 26/35 Wed (24 Dec): AM Snow North; Rain or Snow South. PM Rain South...Wintry Mix North. 28/37 Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...near the Surface in the Gorge. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 1-3000 Feet. 36/43 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Dec 22 11:59:49 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Dec 2008 13:59:49 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, December 22nd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Monday, December 22nd, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A moist Pacifc storm system approached the coastline Saturday, inducing strong easterly winds through the Columbia Gorge, gusting over 60 mph at the west end of the Gorge and to about 40 mph in the Portland area. That pulled low-level Arctic air, from the Columbia basin, into northwestern Oregon. Temperatures dropped into the 20s, from about Salem northward in the Willamette Valley, as abundant warm and moist air circulated onshore over the top of the cold dome. That brought a substantial amount of snow and ice to northwestern Oregon. There was enough warming aloft, by Saturday night, for the snow to turn to sleet and freezing rain across much of the northern Willamette Valley, with many areas receiving about one-quarter of an inch of ice over the top of 6-10 inches of snow. Meanwhile, the cold Arcitc air was not able to penetrate southward in the Willamette Valley much beyond Salem, where just plain rain fell from this system. The storm was not able to scour out the low-level cold air from the Columbia Basin nor from over northwestern Oregon. As the associated upper-level trough approached the coastline Sunday, cooling aloft wiped out the above freezing layer of air over the Arctic dome and turned precipitation mostly back to snow over northwestern Oregon. Most areas received another 2-3 inches of snow accumulation, with the snow showers Sunday afternoon and evening. Once again, areas south of about Salem received plain rain showers with temperatures just above freezing. A summary of snow and ice totals for western Oregon is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR The cold upper-level trough will move over western Oregon this morning. Snow shower acticity increased early this morning across the northern Willamette Valley with an additional couple of inches of snow falling from about Salem north to Portland. Satellite and radar imagery showed an organized band of showers rotating across the eastern half of the Willamette Valley late this morning with snow showers continuing from Portland to Salem. The surface analysis showed a low-pressure center near Newport with an Arctic frontal boundary extending eastard, from the low-pressure center, across the central Willamette Valley. Arctic air was being drawn further south, into the Willamette Valley, than it has been during this entire episode. Temperatures were nearing the freezing mark in Corvallis and had dropped into the mid and upper 30s in Eugene. Rain showers could mix with or turn to snow in the Albany and Corvallis areas this afternoon, and possibly as far south as Eugene. However, showers will be taping off this afternoon. A couple of inches of new snow are locally possible, from Salem north, this afternoon, mainly on the east side of the valley. Midday temperatures ranged from the mid 20s, near Portland, to the upper 20s around Salem. Corvallis was just above freezing and Eugene was in the upper 30s. Temperatures will not warm much this afternoon across the valley. The north coast was also seeing snow showers this morning with temperatures near freezing. Newport was just south of the Arctic front with temperatures in the low 40s. Rain and snow showers will taper off along the north coast this afternoon, with snow showers possibly extending as far south as Lincoln City. Rain showers will fall along the central and south coast. Locally heavy snow showers will continue over the Cascades today and taper off over the coast range. Showers will taper off across all of western Oregon tonight, as the upper-level trough pushes into eastern Oregon. Overnight temperatures should range from the low 20s near Portland to the low 30s near Eugene. At midday, roads were sonw-packed in the Cascades, coast range, Columbia Gorge, and the Willamette Valley (from Portland to Salem). Roads in the southern Willamette Valley remained wet. Before traveling, please check the latest road conditions and requirements, from the Oregon Department of Transportation, at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCMap.asp?curRegion=1&mainNav=RoadConditions The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: This afternoon: SW 5-10 south valley; NW 5-10 north valley. Transport Winds: This afternoon: NNW 10. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1800 feet. Ventilation index 27. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 36. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 82%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:48am. Extended Outlook: Tuesday should bring a small break in the weather, with a transitory ridge of high pressure bringing some partial clearing to western Oregon. The cold air mass will remain in place over the region with high temperatures not likely goin above freezing in the Portland area and struggling into the mid to upper 30s in the central and southern Willamette Valley. The next significant weather event will involve a system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Enough cold air will be in place, ahead of this storm, for precipitation to begin in the form of snow for most of the Willamette Valley, especially from Salem north. However, this system had the potential to turn the surface winds southerly in the valley by Wednesday afternoon...warming the lowest levels above freezing and lifting the snow level to about 500-1000 feet. That transition will be slowest in the Portland area, where significant snow and ice may first accumulate. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level between 500 and 1000 feet. It will likely be a White Christmas for the north valley, because of the snow already on the ground. Locally heavy new snow is possible in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will progressively drop from around 4000 feet Saturday to 1-3000 feet by Monday. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Tomorrow (23 Dec): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Snow Showers. 26/35 Wed (24 Dec): AM Snow North; Rain or Snow South. PM Rain South...Wintry Mix North. 28/37 Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...near the Surface in the Gorge. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 1-3000 Feet. 36/43 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 23 08:59:52 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 10:59:52 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Snow showers tapered off Monday afternoon, but not before dropping several more inches of snow over northwestern Oregon, adding to the most significant snowfall for the region since the winter of 1968-69. The cold Arctic air was drawn a little further south, in the Willamette Valley, Monday, with Corvallis finally seeing about one inch of snow. Eugene bounced in and out of the cold dome of low-level air Monday, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and then climbing to the mid 40s. A comprehensive summary of snow and ice totals, since Saturday morning, for western Oregon and southwestern Washington is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR A weather system offshore was headed mainly towards California this morning, but it dropped the pressures enough to create northeasterly gradients across western Oregon. The surface analysis showed that the Arctic cold front was able to dip further southwest this morning, with sub-freezing temperatures covering the entire Willamette Valley. Valley temperatures ranged from 31 degrees, in Eugene, to 24 degrees in Hillsboro. The low-level cold air is very shallow over Eugene and progressively deeper down the valley, towards Portland, and deeper yet in the Columbia Gorge. That will play in big role when the next Pacific storm makes it into the region Wednesday. Satellite imagery this morning showed a large area of clouds, associated with the offshore weather system. Some clouds and light snow flurries were making it onto the northern Oregon Coast. Mostof the state had generally cloudy and dry conditions. Today should bring a brief break from the heavy snow, although skies will stay mostly cloudy. Some snow flurries are likely along the north coast and the Willamette Valley, from the weather system headed into California. Some sprinkles are likely along the central and south coast. Light northeasterly gradients will keep cold air in place across the entire Willamette Valley today, with high temperatures only climbing into the mid 30s in the south valley and staying below freezing from Salem north to Portland. Many roadways acrosss the region remained snow-packed this morning, with some travel restrictions are in place. Before traveling, please check the latest road conditions and requirements, from the Oregon Department of Transportation, at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCMap.asp?curRegion=1&mainNav=RoadConditions Cloudy skies are expected tonight with one system headed into California and another moving southward, along the British Columbia Coastline, towards Washington and Oregon. There is an increasing chance for light snow, in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, along the north coast and in the northern Willamette Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday, in the greater Portand area, where the potential for more heavy snow and/or ice exists. More on that in the extended discussion... The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: NE 2-5 this morning, NE 3-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 3 this morning, NE 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 800 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 31. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 78%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:35pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: The next significant weather event will involve a system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. Enough cold air will be in place, ahead of this storm, for precipitation to begin in the form of snow for most of the Willamette Valley, especially from Salem north. This system has the potential to turn the surface winds more southerly in the valley by Wednesday afternoon, which would eliminate the cold influence of the Columbia Gorge winds and warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere above freezing. That would lift the snow level to about 500-1000 feet over most of the valley. However, that transition may be very slow in the Portland area, where cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge could enable significant snow and ice to accumulate, before the warmer southerly winds lift surface temperatures abve freezing. The system coming in Wednesday does not have as much warm air aloft associated with it, as the one over the weekend, so the threat of significant freezing rain is not as great. Most likely, precipitation will start as snow in the valley and transition mostly to plain rain, wher the warmer southerly winds send surface temperatures above freezing. Snow levels are not expected to climb above 2000 feet, before dropping back to about 500-1000 feet by Wednesday night. There could still be areas of briefsleet or freezing rain, but I would not expect significant ice accumulations from this storm. On the other hand, if the transition to warmer air is slow, in the north valley, significant snow accumulations are a real possibility. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level between 500 and 1000 feet. It will likely be a White Christmas for the north valley, because of the snow already on the ground. Locally heavy new snow is possible in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will be around 3-4000 feet. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Wed (24 Dec): AM Snow North; Rain or Snow South. PM Rain South...Wintry Mix North. 28/37 Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...near the Surface in the Gorge. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 3000 Feet. 36/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/47 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Dec 23 12:00:07 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Dec 2008 14:00:07 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, December 23rd, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Snow showers tapered off Monday afternoon, but not before dropping several more inches of snow over northwestern Oregon, adding to the most significant snowfall for the region since the winter of 1968-69. The cold Arctic air was drawn a little further south, in the Willamette Valley, Monday, with Corvallis finally seeing about one inch of snow. Eugene bounced in and out of the cold dome of low-level air Monday, with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s and then climbing to the mid 40s. A comprehensive summary of snow and ice totals, since Saturday morning, for western Oregon and southwestern Washington is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR A weather system offshore was headed mainly towards California late this morning, but it has dropped the surface pressures enough to create northeasterly gradients across western Oregon. The surface analysis showed that the Arctic cold front was still south of Eugene late this morning, with near-freezing temperatures in the south valley and north-valley readings in the upper 20s. The low-level cold air is very shallow over Eugene and progressively deeper down the valley, towards Portland, and deeper yet in the Columbia Gorge. That will play in big role when the next Pacific storm makes it into the region Wednesday morning. Satellite imagery late this morning showed a large area of clouds off the Oregon and northern California coastlines, moving southeast towards California. Some clouds and light snow flurries were making it as far north and east as the Willamette Valley. Some sunbreaks were showing up along the northern Oregon Coast, but skies remained generally cloudy across the state at midday. Northwestern Oregon should get a brief break from the heavy snow this afternoon, although skies will stay mostly cloudy. Some snow flurries are likely along the north coast and in the Willamette Valley. Some sprinkles are likely along the central and south coast. Light northeasterly gradients will continued to keep cold air in place across the entire Willamette Valley today, with high temperatures only climbing into the mid 30s in the south valley and staying below freezing from Salem north to Portland. Many roadways acrosss the region remained snow-packed this morning, with some travel restrictions are in place. Some minor melting of snow is possible during that afternoon, which could make snow-packed road surfaces even more slick. Before traveling, please check the latest road conditions and requirements, from the Oregon Department of Transportation, at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCMap.asp?curRegion=1&mainNav=RoadConditions Cloudy skies are expected tonight with one system headed into California and another moving southward, along the British Columbia Coastline, towards Washington and Oregon. There is an increasing chance for light snow, in the pre-dawn hours Wednesday, along the north coast and in the northern Willamette Valley. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for Wednesday, in the greater Portand area, where the potential for more heavy snow exists. More on that in the extended discussion... The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: NE 3-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 800 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 31. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 78%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:35pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: The next significant weather event will involve a system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska on Wednesday. Enough cold air will be in place, ahead of this storm, for precipitation to begin in the form of snow for most of the Willamette Valley, especially from Salem north. This system has the potential to turn the surface winds more southerly in the valley by Wednesday afternoon, which would eliminate the cold influence of the Columbia Gorge winds and warm the lowest levels of the atmosphere above freezing. That would lift the snow level to about 500-1000 feet over most of the valley. However, that transition may be very slow in the Portland area, where cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge could enable significant snow and ice to accumulate, before the warmer southerly winds lift surface temperatures abve freezing. The system coming in Wednesday does not have as much warm air aloft associated with it, as the one over the weekend, so the threat of significant freezing rain is not as great. Most likely, precipitation will start as snow in the valley and transition mostly to plain rain, wher the warmer southerly winds send surface temperatures above freezing. Snow levels are not expected to climb above 2000 feet, before dropping back to about 500-1000 feet by Wednesday night. There could still be areas of briefsleet or freezing rain, but I would not expect significant ice accumulations from this storm. On the other hand, if the transition to warmer air is slow, in the north valley, significant snow accumulations are a real possibility. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level between 500 and 1000 feet. It will likely be a White Christmas for the north valley, because of the snow already on the ground. Locally heavy new snow is possible in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will be around 3-4000 feet. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Wed (24 Dec): AM Snow North; Rain or Snow South. PM Rain South...Wintry Mix North. 28/37 Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...near the Surface in the Gorge. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 3000 Feet. 36/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 38/47 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 24 08:58:39 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Dec 2008 10:58:39 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 24th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, December 24th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A comprehensive summary of snow and ice totals, since Saturday morning, for western Oregon and southwestern Washington is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR You can see how the current snowstorm compares with past northwestern Oregon snowstorms at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_snowstorm.txt Another weather system is dropping into the region this morning, from the Gulf of Alaska. Enough cold air was in place for valley floor precipitation to begin in the form of light snow, from about Salem north, in the pre-dawn hours. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed southerly winds and warming aloft with temperatures slightly above freezing around 2000 feet. That warming has continued this morning, with snow changing to rain, at the Salem Airport, around daybreak. Increasing southerly winds had warmed mid-morning temperatures into the upper 30s to mid 40s, with rain, along the northern and central coast. Cloudy skies covered the southern Willamette Valley, where increasing southerly winds had warmed temperatures into the mid to upper 30s. Snow was still falling in the extreme north valley, where easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, was keeping the low levels of the atmosphere below freezing. Temperatures ranged from the mid 20s near the Gorge to near freezing at McMinnville. Southerly surface winds will slowly increase today, even in the north valley. That will warm the lower levels of the atmosphere above freezing and turn the snow to rain. Snow levels will lift to about 1000 feet over the north valley and to 2000 feet over the south valley. However, that transition will be delayed for areas close to, and in, the Columbia Gorge, where continued cold easterly winds could enable significant snow to accumulate. Valley highs will range from the low 40s, in Eugene, to near the freezing mark in the Portland area. This weather system will not produce as much warming aloft as the one did this past weekend, so the threat of significant freezing rain is low and will mainly be for areas in and near the Columbia Gorge, where the low-level cold air is more persistent. For the most part, precipitation will turn from snow to rain today, from south to north, on the Willamette Valley floors, with snow continuing to fall above 1-2000 feet. There could be areas of brief sleet or freezing rain during that transition. Many roadways across the region remained snow-packed this morning, and some travel restrictions are in place. Additional snow will likely accumulate this morning on extreme north valley roadways (several inches are possible in the Portland area...especially near the Columbia Gorge and in the higher hills). In addition, melting snow, later today, could make slushy road surfaces even more slick. Before traveling, please check the latest road conditions and requirements, from the Oregon Department of Transportation, at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCMap.asp?curRegion=1&mainNav=RoadConditions A cold upper-level trough will bring frequent showers tonight with the snow level dropping back down to between 500 and 1000 feet. Snow accumulations are likely in the higher hills, around the Willamette Valley, with locally heavy snow over the coast range passes and in the Cascades. Computer forecast models show a surface low-pressure system dropping south, to off the northern Oregon Coast, later tonight. That may turn surface winds easterly and pull cold air back out of the Columbia Gorge, into the north valley. There is a good chance that enough cold air will come out of the Gorge to drop snow levels back to the valley floors in the greater Portland area, and possibly as far south as Salem, late tonight and Christmas Day. The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: S 5-15 G 25 this morning, S 10-20 G 30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this morning, S 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 39. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 79%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level generally between 500 and 1000 feet. As previously mentioned, there is a good chance that snow levels will drop to the valley floor, once again, in the extreme north valley. Accumulations of wet snow are possible, on the valley floor, as far south as Salem. Historical information regarding Willamette Valley snow on Christmas is available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_Christmas.txt Locally heavy snow is likely Christmas Day in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will be around 3-4000 feet. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...Near the Surface North Valley. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 3-4000 Feet. 36/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/47 Wed (31 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Dec 24 12:02:56 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Dec 2008 14:02:56 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, December 24th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Wednesday, December 24th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: A comprehensive summary of snow and ice totals, since Saturday morning, for western Oregon and southwestern Washington is available, from the Portland National Weather Service, at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR You can see how the current snowstorm compares with past northwestern Oregon snowstorms at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_snowstorm.txt Another weather system is dropped into the region this morning, from the Gulf of Alaska. Enough cold air was in place for valley floor precipitation to begin in the form of light snow, from about Salem north, in the pre-dawn hours. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed southerly winds and warming aloft with temperatures slightly above freezing around 2000 feet. That warming continued this morning, with snow changing to rain, at the Salem Airport, around daybreak, and northward, to the Portland area, by late this morning. Increasing southerly winds had warmed late-morning temperatures into the mid 40s along the northern and central coast, the low 40s in the southern Willamette Valley, and to just above freezing on the south and west sides of the greater Portland area. Temperatures were still below freezing, and snow was still falling, from the east side of the Portland area, north into southwestern Washington, and east into the Columbia Gorge (areas still exposed to cold easterly outflow, from the Columbia Gorge). Southerly surface winds will slowly increase today, even in the north valley. That will warm the lower levels of the atmosphere above freezing and turn the snow to rain. Snow levels will lift to about 1000 feet over the north valley and to 2000 feet over the south valley. However, that transition will be delayed for areas close to, and in, the Columbia Gorge, where continued cold easterly winds could enable significant snow to accumulate. Valley highs will range from the low 40s, in Eugene, to just above the freezing mark in the Portland area. Mountain roadways remained snow-packed late this morning, and some melting snow on low-elevation roads will make for locally slippery conditions. Use extreme care when traveling. The latest road conditions, and requirements, may be found at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCMap.asp?curRegion=1&mainNav=RoadConditions A cold upper-level trough will bring frequent showers tonight with the snow level dropping back down to between 500 and 1000 feet. Snow accumulations are likely in the higher hills, around the Willamette Valley, with locally heavy snow over the coast range passes and in the Cascades. Computer forecast models show a surface low-pressure system dropping south, to off the northern Oregon Coast, later tonight and early Christmas morning. That may turn surface winds easterly and pull more cold air from the Columbia Gorge, into the north valley. There is a good chance that enough cold air will come out of the Gorge to drop snow levels locally back to the valley floors, in the greater Portland area, and possibly as far south as Salem, late tonight and Christmas Day. The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: S 10-20 G 30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 39. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 79%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level trough will bring showers to the region for Christmas, with the snow level generally between 500 and 1000 feet. As previously mentioned, there is a good chance that snow levels will drop to the valley floor, once again, in the extreme north valley. Accumulations of wet snow are possible, on the valley floor, as far south as Salem. Historical information regarding Willamette Valley snow on Christmas is available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_Christmas.txt Locally heavy snow is likely Christmas Day in the coast range and in the Cascades. Another system will move onshore Friday. It will pull some easterly winds, from the Gorge, ahead of it. If enough cold air is still trapped there, then precipitation may begin in the form of snow in the Portland area and in the Gorge. This system appears strong enough to fairly quickly lift the snow level to about 3000 feet by Friday afternoon. A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for next weekend and early next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will be around 3-4000 feet. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Have a Merry Christmas. Thu (25 Dec): Showers. Snow Level 500-1000 Feet...near the Surface North Valley. 32/38 Fri (26 Dec): Rain or Snow North...Turning to Rain. Rain South. Snow levels Rising. 32/39 Sat (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels near 4000 Feet. 39/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 37/44 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 3-4000 Feet. 36/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/47 Wed (31 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 26 09:01:40 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Dec 2008 11:01:40 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 26th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, December 26th, 2008 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: Christmas 2008 set snowfall records in the northern Willamette Valley. It was the snowiest in Portland history, with 10 inches on the ground at the National Weather Service offices in northeast Portland. In addition, December 2008 will go into the record books as the snowiest December, in Portland, since at least 1940 (when records started at the Portland Airport), with 18.9 inches of snowfall. More on this record-setting snowy month can be found at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR Historical information regarding Willamette Valley snow on Christmas is available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_Christmas.txt More snow showers fell in the northern Willamette Valley on Christmas, with .8 inches of snow falling at the Portland National Weather Service. A cold upper-level trough was responsible for the rain and snow showers Christmas Day, with valley high temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 30s. Partial clearing overnight allowed areas of icy fog to form in the valley with low temperatures generally falling below freezing. That allowed slushy streets to refreeze in many areas, with visibilities locally less than one-half mile. That made for difficult travel conditions again this morning. There are major changes in store beginning later today. The first in a long seris of warmer weather systems will move onshore later today. A warm front will spread rain onto the coastline by midday and into the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Initially, the air mass over the valley may be cold enough for some to fall at very low elevations. No accumulation is expected below 1000 feet. The snow level should rise to around 2500 feet by this evening. Cold air remains trapped in the Columbia Gorge, so precipitation there will begin as snow. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for later this afternoon and tonight, in the Columbia Gorge. The snow in the Gorge will slowly change to rain, from west to east, overnight, as the trapped low-level cold air gets scoured out. The incoming storm will also produce strong southerly winds along the coast, so the National Weather Service has issues a High Wind Warning for the northern and central Oregon Coast for later this afternoon and tnight. Southerly winds will increase later today with gusts to 60 mph possible late this afternoon and tonight. Rain and southerly winds will also increase in the Willamette Valley later today with temperatures climbing into the low 40s by this evening. The combination of increasing rain melting snow will make for local hazardous ponding of water on roadways in the north valley. Continued rain and brisk southerly winds will keep valley temperatures steady or slowly rising overnight with the cold front not coming onshore until Saturday morning. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, S 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 42. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:37pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:50am. Extended Outlook: A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for this weekend and much of next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will rise to around 3-4000 feet. Temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Run-off from rain, combined with the significant melting of low-elevation snow, raises the concern for flooding. At this time, major flooding is not expected, but rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored. The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The Nortwest River Forecast Center will have the latest river levels, forecasts, watches and warnings at: http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ Tomorrow (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels Rising to 5000 Feet. 40/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 40/46 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 2-3000 Feet. 39/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/47 Wed (31 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 38/46 Thu (01 Jan): Rain at Times. 37/44 Fri (02 Jan): Rain at Times. 35/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 26 11:59:59 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Dec 2008 13:59:59 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 26th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next update scheduled for Monday, January 5th, 2008... Issued: Friday, December 26th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: Christmas 2008 set snowfall records in the northern Willamette Valley. It was the snowiest in Portland history, with 10 inches on the ground at the Portland National Weather Service office, in northeast Portland. In addition, December 2008 will go into the record books as the snowiest December, in Portland, since records started at the Portland Airport (1940), with 18.9 inches, and one of the snowiest of all time. More on this record-setting snowy month can be found at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR Historical information regarding Willamette Valley snow on Christmas is available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_Christmas.txt More snow showers fell in the northern Willamette Valley on Christmas, with eight-tenths of an inch falling at the Portland National Weather Service. A cold upper-level trough was responsible for the rain and snow showers Christmas Day, with valley high temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 30s. There was not much melting of snow on the ground. Partial clearing overnight allowed areas of icy fog to form in the valley with low temperatures generally falling below freezing. That allowed slushy streets to refreeze in many areas, with visibilities locally less than one-half mile. That made for difficult travel conditions again this morning. A major warming trend will begin, across Washington and Oregon, later today. The first in a long seris of warmer weather systems will move onshore this afternoon. A warm front was already spreading rain onto the northern and central Oregon Coast late this morning. As precipitation moves inland this afternoon, the air mass over the wetern valleys may be cold enough for snow to fall at very low elevations. No accumulation is expected below 1000 feet. Increasing warm southerly winds should lift the snow level to around 2500 feet by this evening. Cold air remains trapped in the Columbia Gorge, so precipitation there will begin as snow or freezing rain. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning, valid later this afternoon and tonight, for the Columbia Gorge and the upper Hood River Valley. Snow in the Gorge, and in the upper Hood River Valley, should change to rain overnight, with possible areas of freezing rain. Snow levels will quickly lift above the coastal range passes this afternoon, but increasing snow is expected in the Cascades through this evening, where Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. The incoming storm will also produce strong southerly winds along the coast, so the National Weather Service has issues a High Wind Warning for the northern and central Oregon Coast for later this afternoon and tnight. Southerly winds may gust to 60 mph late this afternoon and tonight. Rain and southerly winds will also increase in the Willamette Valley later today with temperatures climbing into the low 40s by this evening. South winds may gust to near 30 mph by tonight in the valley. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight with the cold front not coming onshore until Saturday morning. The combination of warm southerly winds, increasing rain, and melting snow will make for local ponding of water on north-valley and coastal range roadways, in addition to large quantities of slush. That will make for locally hazardous travel...especially on less traveled roads. Surface Winds: S 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 42. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:37pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:50am. Extended Outlook: A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for this weekend and much of next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will briefly rise to near 5000 feet early Saturday, before dropping back to between 3-4000 feet for most of next week. Coastal and western valley temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Run-off from rain, combined with the significant melting of low-elevation snow, raises the concern for flooding. At this time, major flooding is not expected, but rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored. The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ River and stream information is avaiable from the Nortwest River Forecast Center: http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ Tomorrow (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels Rising to 5000 Feet. 40/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 40/46 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 2-3000 Feet. 39/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 2-4000 Feet. 36/44 Wed (31 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/45 Thu (01 Jan): Rain at Times. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 37/44 Fri (02 Jan): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-5000 Feet. 38/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Dec 26 12:02:30 2008 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Dec 2008 14:02:30 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, December 26th, 2008 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next update scheduled for Monday, January 5th, 2009... Issued: Friday, December 26th, 2008 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm. Weather Discussion: Christmas 2008 set snowfall records in the northern Willamette Valley. It was the snowiest in Portland history, with 10 inches on the ground at the Portland National Weather Service office, in northeast Portland. In addition, December 2008 will go into the record books as the snowiest December, in Portland, since records started at the Portland Airport (1940), with 18.9 inches, and one of the snowiest of all time. More on this record-setting snowy month can be found at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/total_forecast/getprod.php?wfo=pqr&pil=PNS&sid=PQR Historical information regarding Willamette Valley snow on Christmas is available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/info/2008_December_Christmas.txt More snow showers fell in the northern Willamette Valley on Christmas, with eight-tenths of an inch falling at the Portland National Weather Service. A cold upper-level trough was responsible for the rain and snow showers Christmas Day, with valley high temperatures only climbing into the mid to upper 30s. There was not much melting of snow on the ground. Partial clearing overnight allowed areas of icy fog to form in the valley with low temperatures generally falling below freezing. That allowed slushy streets to refreeze in many areas, with visibilities locally less than one-half mile. That made for difficult travel conditions again this morning. A major warming trend will begin, across Washington and Oregon, later today. The first in a long seris of warmer weather systems will move onshore this afternoon. A warm front was already spreading rain onto the northern and central Oregon Coast late this morning. As precipitation moves inland this afternoon, the air mass over the wetern valleys may be cold enough for snow to fall at very low elevations. No accumulation is expected below 1000 feet. Increasing warm southerly winds should lift the snow level to around 2500 feet by this evening. Cold air remains trapped in the Columbia Gorge, so precipitation there will begin as snow or freezing rain. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning, valid later this afternoon and tonight, for the Columbia Gorge and the upper Hood River Valley. Snow in the Gorge, and in the upper Hood River Valley, should change to rain overnight, with possible areas of freezing rain. Snow levels will quickly lift above the coastal range passes this afternoon, but increasing snow is expected in the Cascades through this evening, where Winter Storm Warnings have been issued. The incoming storm will also produce strong southerly winds along the coast, so the National Weather Service has issues a High Wind Warning for the northern and central Oregon Coast for later this afternoon and tnight. Southerly winds may gust to 60 mph late this afternoon and tonight. Rain and southerly winds will also increase in the Willamette Valley later today with temperatures climbing into the low 40s by this evening. South winds may gust to near 30 mph by tonight in the valley. Temperatures will remain steady or slowly rise overnight with the cold front not coming onshore until Saturday morning. The combination of warm southerly winds, increasing rain, and melting snow will make for local ponding of water on north-valley and coastal range roadways, in addition to large quantities of slush. That will make for locally hazardous travel...especially on less traveled roads. Surface Winds: S 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 42. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:37pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:50am. Extended Outlook: A strong westerly jet stream is forecast for this weekend and much of next week with rain in the valleys and snow for the mountains. Snow levels will briefly rise to near 5000 feet early Saturday, before dropping back to between 3-4000 feet for most of next week. Coastal and western valley temperatures will return to near seasonal normals. Run-off from rain, combined with the significant melting of low-elevation snow, raises the concern for flooding. At this time, major flooding is not expected, but rivers and streams will need to be closely monitored. The latest weather warnings, advisories, and forecasts, from the Portland National Weather Service, are available at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ River and stream information is avaiable from the Nortwest River Forecast Center: http://www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/ Note: Next update is not scheduled until Monday, January 5th, 2009. Have a Happy New year. Tomorrow (27 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels Rising to 5000 Feet. 40/46 Sun (28 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Levels 3-4000 Feet. 40/46 Mon (29 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow levels 2-3000 Feet. 39/43 Tue (30 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 2-4000 Feet. 36/44 Wed (31 Dec): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/45 Thu (01 Jan): Rain at Times. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 37/44 Fri (02 Jan): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-5000 Feet. 38/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us