[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 30th, 2008

[Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast]

Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

Issued: 
     Wednesday, January 30, 2008 at 4:45 pm.

Burn Advisory For Thursday, January 31, 2008:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from 8:00am until 3:30pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from 8:00am until 3:30pm.

Weather Discussion:
     A cold upper-level trough brought locally heavy rain and
     snow showers to Western Oregon early this morning.  Many
     areas above 500 feet picked up 2-4 inches of snow with wet
     snow coating sections of the valley floor.  The showers gave
     way to more steady rain and slowly rising snow levels, in
     advance of the next weather system approaching the
     coastline. By late this afternoon, rain was falling across
     most of Western Oregon with snow above about 1000 feet in
     the coast range and in the Cascades

     The freezing level was measured over Salem early this
     morning at 2000 feet and had only risen to 2100 feet by this
     evening.  Warmer air is moving in aloft ahead of the next
     weather system, so the snow levels will slowly climb to
     about 2500 feet by tonight.   High temperatures today
     climbed into the upper 30s and low 40s across the valley and
     the mid 40s along the beaches.  South winds are increasing
     this eveing and are already gusting to about 25 mph in the
     valley and to near 40 mph along the coastal strip.  Cape
     Meares (at 1421 feet near Tillamook) has had a gust to 58 mph.

     Steady rain will continue until the front moves through
     Western Oregon late tonight.  South winds will increase
     along the coast, where high wind warnings are in effect for
     gusts to 65 mph.  The valley will see gusts in the 35 mph
     range ahead of the front tonight.  More heavy snow will push
     into the Cascades and the upper Hood River Valley tonight
     and Thursday, where winter storm and heavy snow warnings
     have been issued.

     A cool trough will bring showers Thursday and Friday with
     continued blustery southerly winds.  Snow levels will drop
     back to about 1000-1500 feet but should not be quite as low
     as they have been the past few days.  Ventilation conditions
     for burning are expected to continue to be good.  Lows
     tonight will stay in the mid to upper 30s across the valley
     with the rainy and windy conditions.  Highs tomorrow will
     climb into the low 40s with showers and a few sun-breaks. 


Surface Winds:
     S 15-25 G30 Thursday morning, S 15-25 G30 Thursday afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     SW 35 Thursday morning, SW 30 Thursday afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height Thursday will be near 3000 feet.  Ventilation index 105.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature Thursday will be near 43.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 82%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunrise Thursday: 7:33 am; sunset Thursday: 5:18 pm.

Extended Outlook:
     The next system is forecast to take a more southern track
     with the low-pressure center taking aim at northern Oregon
     or Southwest Washington.  That track will keep snow levels
     near or below 1000 feet across Western Oregon Saturday. 
     This storm will be closely monitored for the possibility of
     snow levels dropping to the valley floor.  If it takes a
     track into the Central Oregon Coast, then it could be a
     significant snow-maker for the Willamette Valley.  If it
     tracks further north, into Western Washington, then it will
     be a cold rain-maker with brisk south winds.  It is too far
     out to call at this time.

     Super Bowl Sunday looks showery and cool with snow levels at
     or below 1000 feet.  It appears that a weak ridge will bring
     some drying Sunday night and Monday with the next weather
     system bringing more rain and mountain snow by Tuesday
     afternoon.  Another ridge will bring some drying Wednesday.

Thu (31 Jan):  Rain and Wind...Turning To Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 1000 Feet.  38/43

Fri (01 Feb):  Showers.  Snow Level 1000 Feet.  34/42

Sat (02 Feb):  Rain Turning to Showers.  Snow Level Near or Below 1000 Feet.  33/42

Sun (03 Feb):  Showers...Decreasing Late.  Snow Level Near 1000 Feet.  33/42

Mon (04 Feb):  Partly Cloudy.  31/43

Tue (05 Feb):  Rain and Windy.  Mountain Snow.  34/46

Wed (06 Feb):  Decreasing Showers.  34/46

Thu (07 Feb):  Chance of Rain.  36/46

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us