[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, May 14th, 2008
Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast
willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Wed May 14 11:07:57 PDT 2008
Daily Smoke Management Forecast
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.
...Next Update Not Until 9 am Thursday, May 15th, 2008...
Wednesday, May 14th, 2008 at 12:00pm.
Agricultural burning is not recommended.
Stack burning is not allowed.
A strong warm front was able to tap some tropical moisture
and drop impressive amounts of rain across Washington and
Northern Oregon Tuesday and Tuesday night. Rainfall totals
since Tuesday morning were close to one inch along the
Washington and Extreme Northern Oregon Coastlines, and in
the Washington and Extreme Northern Oregon Cascades.
Timberline Lodge has picked up 1.02 inches of rain since
About one-tenth to one-third of an inch fell across the
interior of Western Washington with a little over a tenth of
an inch falling in the extreme Northern Willamette Valley.
The westerly flow aloft created a rain-shadow region over
Central Washington and North-Central Oregon with only trace
amounts of rain there. However, about one-quarter of an
inch of rain fell from Eastern Washington southward through
NE Oregon. Temperatures were very mild overnight with
minimums in the low to mid 50s across Western Oregon and the
mid 40s to mid 50s east of the Cascades.
Infrared satellite imagery showed cloudy skies still
covering all of Washington and Oregon at midday. Doppler
radar showed areas of light rain decreasing across
Washington and all but over across Northern Oregon. The
northwesterly flow aloft is drying out and rapidly becoming
northerly, in response to a building upper-level ridge of
high pressure just offshore. The ODA surface analysis
showed the warm front weakening near the NW tip of
Washington. High pressure was strengthening over Western
Oregon with weak southerly gradients across the Willamette
As the upper-level ridge continues the build northward,
along the coastline, this afternoon, the air mass will
further dry out, from west to east, and allow for some
sunshine to begin making an appearance over Western Oregon.
The clouds will begin to clear from Eastern Oregon by
tonight. Surface gradients will become northerly this
afternoon across Western Oregon, as high pressure builds
northward into Washington. Clearing skies will combine with
very warm air aloft (freezing levels above 10,000 feet) to
lift temperatures above normal across Western Oregon this
Willamette Valley highs should push into the low 70s, after
being below normal for more than a week. Temperatures east
of the Cascades will range from the mid 60s to the mid 70s.
The warm spot today will be SW Oregon, where highs should
climb locally into the low 80s. Clearing skies will allow
temperatures to be slightly cooler tonight than they were
this morning across the state. However, it will still be a
mild night with Willamette Valley lows near 50 degrees.
Becoming N 5-10 (G 15 south valley) later this afternoon.
NNE 10 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 30.
Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72.
Minimum relative humidity will be near 57%.
Salem sunset tonight: 8:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:43am.
The upper-level ridge is forecast to continue to build over
the Pacific Northwest with sunny and much warmer weather
across all of Oregon for the end of the week. Temperatures
will become progressively warmer Thursday and Friday, as the
surface winds turn offshore. Willamette Valley highs will
shoot well into the 80s Thursday and likely into the low 90s
Friday, which would break some daily records. It appears
that the warmest day west of the Cascades will be Friday,
and Saturday will be the warmest day for Eastern Oregon.
The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift east of the
Cascades Saturday, along with the associated surface thermal
trough. that should bring cooler onshore winds into the
Willamette Valley in time to cap the afternoon heating in
the mid 80s. The cooling trend is forecast to progress
eastward, across Central and Eastern Oregon, Sunday, with
increasing onshore flow west of the Cascades cooling
temperatures back to near normal. A strong westerly jet
stream is forcast to bring back a chance of rain to Western
Oregon by Monday evening with temperatures likely falling
back below normal.
Tomorrow (15 May): Sunny and Unseasonably Warm. 50/84
Fri (16 May): Sunny with Possible Record High Temperatures. 54/92
Sat (17 May): Sunny and Very Warm. 55/85
Sun (18 May): Partly Cloudy and Cooler. 50/73
Mon (19 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain Late. 47/68
Tue (20 May): Chance of Rain. 46/65
Wed (21 May): Partly Sunny. 41/69
weather at oda.state.or.us
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