[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, November 4th, 2008

[Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast]

Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

Issued: 
     Tuesday, November 4th, 2008 at 9:00am.

Burn Advisory:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm.

Weather Discussion:
     A very moist Pacific storm system moved onto the southern
     Oregon Coastline Monday evening and northeastward across the
     state overnight.  It dropped about one inch of rain across
     most of western Oregon and generally one-tenth to
     one-quarter of an inch across central and eastern Oregon. 
     The ODA surface analysuis showed the low pressure system had
     moved into extreme southeastern Washington by mid-morning
     with the associated cold front pushing through central Idaho.

     Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies over most of
     Washington and east of the Cascades in Oregon.  Steady
     precipitation was still falling across northeastern Oregon
     with snow being reported at Meacham (3726 feet) along I84 in
     the northeastern mountains.  In the wake of the cold front,
     some breaks in the cloud cover were showing up over western
     Oregon, along with numerous showers.

     The air aloft is quite cold with the freezing levels over
     Salem and Medford measured at just 4400 feet and 4300 feet
     respectively early this morning.  There was even a report of
     snow and hail showers this morning just south of Pleasant
     Valley (about 6 miles south of Tillamook).  A cold
     upper-level trough will maintain considerable shower
     activity across the region today with even a slight chance
     of a thundershower and small hail.  High temperatures will
     struggle to reach the low 50s with gusty southwest winds
     near showers.

     The snow level will drop to 3000 feet today with 4-8 inches
     of snow expected over the Cascade passes.  Government Camp,
     Santiam Pass, and Willamette Pass had picked up several
     inches of snow, by mid-morning, with temperatures near 30
     degrees.  Even Siskiyou Summit, in southern Oregon, had
     picked up an inch of snow.

Surface Winds:
     SW 10 this morning, SW 10 G20 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     WSW 17 this morning, W 18 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet.  Ventilation index 72.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 4:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:57am.

Extended Outlook:
     The upper-level trough is forecast to push east of the by
     Wednesday mornign with the flow aloft turning northwesterly
     and beginning to dry out.  A strong warm front will bring
     steady rain back to western Oregon Wednesday afternoon, and
     push the snow level back above the Cascade passes.  The rain
     should taper off Thursday and Friday, as the warm front
     moves north, into southern British Columbia, forcing mild
     air back over Oregon.

     Another Pacific storm system is forecast to bring more rain
     to the region Saturday, but snow levels should remain
     generally above the Cascades passes.  The next system is
     slated to come onshore Sunday evening and could bring some
     gusty south winds to the coastal strip.  Yet another system
     may come onshore Tuesday, as it appears the rainly season
     has arrived.

Tomorrow (05 Nov):  Rain Developing.  Snow Level 3000 Feet...Rising to 6000 Feet Late.  38/50

Thu (06 Nov):  Cloudy.  Chance of Light Rain.  44/59

Fri (07 Nov):  Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of Light Rain..Mainly North.  46/60

Sat (08 Nov):  Rain Likely...Turning to Showers by Afternoon.  46/55

Sun (09 Nov):  Increasing Rain and Wind Late.  42/54

Mon (10 Nov):  Mostly Cloudy with Decreasing Showers.  Snow Level Near 4000 Feet.  42/53

Tue (11 Nov):  Rain Likely...Turning to Showers.  43/54

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us