From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Apr 1 09:01:30 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 01 Apr 2009 11:01:30 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, April 1st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, April 1st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: A strong but fairly dry northwesterly flow aloft directed a cold front across Washington and Oregon Tuesday afternoon. It was accompanied by blustery south winds and a brief burst of rain, in the Willamette Valley, following by cloudy but generally dry weather Tuesday evening. Rainfall totals west of the Cascades were not impressive, with the north coast and northern Willamette Valley picking up about one-tenth of an inch. In the south valley, Eugene only got a trace of rain. Cold air, in the wake of the front, dropped the freezing level to 3700 feet over Salem by late Tuesday afternoon and to just 2400 feet by early this morning. The cold front had more jet stream support across central and eastern Oregon, with the northern mountains picking up a fair amount of new snow. Timberline Lodge received just one inch of new snow, but Mt. Hood Meadows picked up 8 inches. Mt Bachelor got 5 inches of new snow, and Willamette Pass got 2 inches. The mountains of northeast Oregon got hit hard, with Anthony Lakes Ski area received 16 inches of new snow. The front also produced strong winds across northeastern Oregon, with Pendleton getting gusts to nearly 60 mph. Skies remained mostly cloudy overnight with an approaching warm front spreading light rain across western Washington and northwest Oregon in the pre-dawn hours this morning. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that light rain had spread south to about Corvallis by mid-morning. Light snow had also moved into the northern and central Cascades, with pass temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Considerable middle and high clouds had also spread across the northern half of eastern Oregon. As the offshore warm front approaches, light rain will continue to spread south and east across the state today, with the snow level climbing to about 6000 feet by late this afternoon. The ODA surface analysis showed southerly gradients beginning to strengthen along the coast, so south winds will pick up as the day progresses. Rainfall amounts in the valley could approach one-quarter of an inch by tonight. Cloudy and rainy skies will hold high temperatures in the 40s most of the day in the valley with the warmest readings likely ahead of the cold front this evening. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, S 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SSW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 74%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:40pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:50am. Extended Outlook: An approaching cold front will increase the rain and mountain snow tonight and early Thursday across western Oregon, along with the southerly winds. In the wake of the cold front, a cool upper-level trough will bring vigorous showers Thursday afternoon with possible small hail. Heavy snow is likely over the Cascade passes. Showers will taper off Friday with continued low snow levels. More spring-like conditions will finally arrive Saturday, as a transitory upper-level ridge builds into the coastline. The long-range computer models still disagree as to how long the dry weather will last, but it appears that rain may hold off until late Sunday. This system should be cold enough to bring some snow to the Cascades Monday...mainly south. Showers are forecast to linger into Tuesday. We may get a break from the damp weather Wednesday of next week, but there is no long-term dry weather pattern forecast by the long-range computer models. Tomorrow (02 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/52 Fri (03 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 feet. 36/53 Sat (04 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 33/62 Sun (05 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain late. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 37/61 Mon (06 Apr): Chance of Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 40/57 Tue (07 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 38/58 Wed (08 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. 39/59 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 3 09:04:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 03 Apr 2009 11:04:08 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, April 3rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: Another strong cold front moved across western Oregon early Thursday, followed by an unseasonably cold upper-level trough Thursday afternoon and night. Strong mid-level westerly winds created a rain-shadow effect, in the lee of the coastal range, which limited Willamette Valley rainfall over the past 48 hours to around one-quarter of an inch or less. In contrast, strong upslope flow brought much heavier precipitation to the western slopes of the coast range and the Cascades. Much of the precipitation in the mountains fell as snow, over the past 24 hours, with the snow level rapidly dropping below the Cascades passes Thursday morning and continuing to fall to just 1000 feet by this morning. ODOT road cameras confirmed sticking snow all the way down to Brightwood (elevation 1070 feet) this morning on Hwy 26 east of Portland. Snow also covered the roadways near Detroit (elevation 1670 feet) this morning, on Hwy 22 east of Salem. Mountain snow totals were impressive over the past 24 hours, with about a foot of new snow from Mt. Hood to Willamette Pass. That adds to what was an amazingly snowy month of March in the mountains. Government Camp received more snow this March (108 inches) that they accumulated in November, December, and Janurary combined! The recent snowfall lifted the base snow total at Timberline Lodge over 200 inches (207 inches) this morning. That is well above normal, after a slow start to the snow season. Cascades passes looked as if it were early January this morning, with snow-packed conditions and temperatures in the low 20s. Satellite imagery and Doppler radar showed showers continuing to rotate onshore across northwest Oregon, with westerly flow aloft continuing to enhance the showers over the mountains and create a rain-shadow over the Willamette Valley. A few showers were making it into the valley, but the real focus of the precipitation continued to be over the coast range and the Cascades this morning. Clouds and breezy conditions kept valley temperatures above freezing overnight, even though the freezing level was measured at just 2100 feet over Salem this morning. The upper-level trough is forecast to shift east of the Cascades this afternoon, with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. Showers will taper off today with increasing sun-breaks this afternoon. Very cold air aloft will provide excellent mixing of the air mass today and prevent high temperatures from climbing above 50 degrees in the western valleys (about 10 degrees below normal). Surface winds were southwesterly in the valley this morning and will slowly turn more northwesterly this afternoon. Clearing skies this evening will allow temperatures to rapidly drop with near-record low temperatures and widespread frost likely across the Willamette Valley overnight. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 this morning, WNW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 15 this morning, NW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4700 feet. Ventilation index 94. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 50%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:43pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:47am. Extended Outlook: More spring-like conditions will finally arrive over the weekend, as an upper-level ridge builds over the region. Surface winds will turn offshore Saturday afternoon through Sunday with the frezeing level jumping above 8000 feet by Sunday. After a cold start Saturday, valley temperatures will recover to near-normal Saturday afternoon and shoot well above normal, for a change, on Sunday. The long-range computer models forecast the next weather system to be directed more at California, wit a split-flow jet stream pattern developing over the Pacific Northwest. That should extend the dry weather at least through Monday with continued offshore flow at the surface. The flow is forecast to turn onshore by midweek with cooler temperatures and a returning threat of rain and mountain snow. Tomorrow (04 Apr): Frosty Start with Patchy Fog...Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 28/59 Sun (05 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 33/69 Mon (06 Apr): Mostly Sunny. 39/69 Tue (07 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly South. 42/65 Wed (08 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 42/60 Thu (09 Apr): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 3-4000 Feet. 43/53 Fri (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Apr 6 09:03:42 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:03:42 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, April 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, April 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure moved onshore, as forecast, over the weekend. After a frosty Saturday morning, with Willamette minimums in the upper 20s, rapid warming of the air mass and increasing offshore flow helped Saturday afternoon temperatures recover to near normal (about 60 degrees). Valley minimums stayed just above freezing Sunday morning, with continued warming of the air mass pushing Sunday afternoon temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s. Offshore flow extended to the beaches over the weekend, with highs Saturday 55-60 and Sunday in upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper-level ridge axis had flattened slightly, and shifted eastard to over Idaho, this morning. The next weather system had cut off from the main flow pattern and was spinning around about 550 miles off the central California Coastline. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-shield from that system well off the California Coast, with mostly clear skies extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. The morning sounding over Salem showed further warming aloft, since Sunday afternoon, with weak northerly winds below about 5000 feet and weak southerly flow aloft. The air mass continued to be very dry at all levels. Fair skies and light winds allowed temperatures to locally drop into mid 30s across the Willamette Valley this morning. Hillsboro was the coldest spot I could find with a minimum at least down to 34 degrees. Eugene dropped to at least 36 degrees. the The ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore flow across western Washington and western Oregon with light north-northeasterly gradients across the Willamette Valley. Valley temperatures had already climbed into the 50s by mid-morning, indicating that a quick warm-up is in store today. Very warm air aloft and offshore surface winds should combine to raise afternoon temperatures to near-record levels across western Oregon this afternoon. Willamette Valley highs will climb into the mid and upper 70s. 78 degrees is the daily record high for both Salem and Eugene today, set back in 1906 and 1989 respectively. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, NNE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 5 this morning, NNE 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2100 feet. Ventilation index 17. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 74. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 28%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:47pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:41am. Extended Outlook: The slow-moving upper-level low pressure system off the California Coast will slide far enough eastward to bring clouds and some showers into California by Tuesday afternoon. Some middle and high clouds will spread north over Oregon Tuesday, but the main effect from this system will be to shift the thermal trough east of the Cascades Tuesday afternoon. The will allow cooler marine air to begin spilling into the Willamette Valley, capping high temperatures near 70 degrees. North-northeasterly transport winds should veer to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon, with mixing heights climbing above 3000 feet, in response to cooling aloft. Onshore flow will increase Wednesday, as the upper-level trough moves inland over northern and central California. More clouds and some showers will likely rotate northward over mainly the southern half of Oregon. Willamette Valley high temperatures will quickly drop to near mormal with the snow level dropping to around 5500 feet in the Cascades. The next weather system is forecast to weaken as it moves onshore Thursday, but it should be strong enough to bring some showers to most of western Oregon, with lowering snow levels. The next break appears to be Easter Sunday, with rain returning Monday. Tomorrow (07 Apr): Increasing Middle and High Clouds. Onshore Flow Late. 42/70 Wed (08 Apr): Moslty Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Showers...Mainly South. 43/57 Thu (09 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/54 Fri (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/54 Sat (11 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/57 Sun (12 Apr): Partly Sunny. 40/62 Mon (13 Apr): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Apr 6 09:12:43 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 06 Apr 2009 11:12:43 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, April 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected High Temperature Forecast For Today and Extended Forecast Wording... Issued: Monday, April 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge of high pressure moved onshore, as forecast, over the weekend. After a frosty Saturday morning, with Willamette minimums in the upper 20s, rapid warming of the air mass and increasing offshore flow helped Saturday afternoon temperatures recover to near normal (about 60 degrees). Valley minimums stayed just above freezing Sunday morning, with continued warming of the air mass pushing Sunday afternoon temperatures into the upper 60s and low 70s. Offshore flow extended to the beaches over the weekend, with highs Saturday 55-60 and Sunday in upper 50s to mid 60s. The upper-level ridge axis had flattened slightly, and shifted eastard to over Idaho, this morning. The next weather system had cut off from the main flow pattern and was spinning around about 550 miles off the central California Coastline. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-shield from that system well off the California Coast, with mostly clear skies extending from the Pacific Northwest to the Desert Southwest. The morning sounding over Salem showed further warming aloft, since Sunday afternoon, with weak northerly winds below about 5000 feet and weak southerly flow aloft. The air mass continued to be very dry at all levels. Fair skies and light winds allowed temperatures to locally drop into mid 30s across the Willamette Valley this morning. Hillsboro was the coldest spot I could find with a minimum at least down to 34 degrees. Eugene dropped to at least 36 degrees. The ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore flow across western Washington and western Oregon with light north-northeasterly gradients across the Willamette Valley. Valley temperatures had already climbed into the 50s by mid-morning, indicating that a quick warm-up is in store today. Very warm air aloft and offshore surface winds should combine to raise afternoon temperatures to near-record levels across western Oregon this afternoon. Willamette Valley highs will climb into the mid and upper 70s. 78 degrees is the daily record high for both Salem and Eugene today, set back in 1906 and 1989 respectively. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, NNE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 5 this morning, NNE 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2100 feet. Ventilation index 17. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 25%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:47pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:41am. Extended Outlook: The slow-moving upper-level low pressure system off the California Coast will slide far enough eastward to bring clouds and some showers into California by Tuesday afternoon. Some middle and high clouds will spread north over Oregon Tuesday, but the main effect from this system will be to shift the thermal trough east of the Cascades Tuesday afternoon. The will allow cooler marine air to begin spilling into the Willamette Valley, capping high temperatures near 70 degrees. North-northeasterly transport winds should back to northwesterly Tuesday afternoon, with mixing heights climbing above 3000 feet, in response to cooling aloft. Onshore flow will increase Wednesday, as the upper-level trough moves inland over northern and central California. More clouds and some showers will likely rotate northward over mainly the southern half of Oregon. Willamette Valley high temperatures will quickly drop to near mormal with the snow level dropping to around 5500 feet in the Cascades. The next weather system is forecast to weaken as it moves onshore Thursday, but it should be strong enough to bring some showers to most of western Oregon, with lowering snow levels. The next break appears to be Easter Sunday, with rain returning Monday. Tomorrow (07 Apr): Increasing Middle and High Clouds. Onshore Flow Late. 42/70 Wed (08 Apr): Moslty Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Showers...Mainly South. 43/57 Thu (09 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/54 Fri (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/54 Sat (11 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/57 Sun (12 Apr): Partly Sunny. 40/62 Mon (13 Apr): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Apr 7 09:03:01 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 07 Apr 2009 11:03:01 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, April 7th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: An upper-level low pressure area was centered about 350 miles off the central California coastline this morning. The associated cold front was nearing the california Coast with only some high cluods circulating northward over Oreegon. Fair skies and light winds overnight allowed western Oregon minimums to drop as low as the mid 30s, after peaking in the mid to upper 70s Monday afternoon. Hillsboro and Eugene were a couple of the cooler spots in the valley this morning, both dropping to 37 degrees. Tillamook, on the north coast, dipped down to 36 degrees this morning. The warm weather pattern is beginning to break down this morning. The ODA surface analysis showed the thermal trough had shifted inland to over the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow had pushed areas of fog onto the coast. In contrast, the air mass over the valley remainded very warm and dry this morning, with the early morning sounding over Salem showing even warmer temperatures aloft compared with Monday morning. Mid-morning temperatures had, once again, warmed into the 50s in the Willamette Valley, so well above normal temperatures are in store for one more day east of the coast range. As the cold front moves onshore, into California, this afternoon, the surface thermal trough over western Oregon will shift east of the Cascades. That will induce cooler onshore flow, from south to north, across western Oregon. High temperatures will likely cap out in the upper 60s in the southern Willamette Valley but may reach the mid 70s in the north valley. It will be 10-15 degrees cooler along the coast today with highs ranging from about 55 to 65 degrees. Some showers could develop across southern Oregon later this afternoon and evening...especially over the mountains. Clouds will continue to increase, from south to north, overnight with the chance of showers migrating northward into central Oregon. It will likely stay dry in the Willamette Valley with the best chance of sprinkles in Lane County. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, NNW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this morning, NNW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2300 feet. Ventilation index 18. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 74. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 33%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:48pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:39am. Extended Outlook: Onshore flow will increase across western Oregon Wednesday, as the upper-level trough moves inland across Nevada and Utah. More clouds and some showers will likely rotate northward over mainly the southern and eastern portions of Oregon. Willamette Valley high temperatures will quickly drop to near mormal with the snow level dropping to around 5500 feet in the Cascades. The next weather system is forecast to weaken as it moves onshore Thursday, but it should be strong enough to bring some showers to most of western Oregon, with lowering snow levels. A weak westerly flow aloft is forecast for the remainder of the week. The latest computer guidance is uncertain on the timing of a stronger system slated to move onshore sometime between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Tomorrow (08 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Light Showers South. 43/57 Thu (09 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/54 Fri (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. 40/55 Sat (11 Apr): Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/57 Sun (12 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/57 Mon (13 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 42/54 Tue (14 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Apr 8 09:00:43 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 08 Apr 2009 11:00:43 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, April 8th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: An upper-level low-pressure system moved onshore into central California Tuesday night and was continuing east into Nevada this morning. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies circulating around it covering most of Oregon. Doppler radar showers most of the shower activity confined to east of the Cascades, with significant rainfall over portions of south-central Oregon. Lakeview received almost one-half inch of rain overnight with over a tenth of an inch in Klamath Falls. Some sprinkles also fell overnight along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, extending as far north as Salem this morning. North Bend, on the south coast, did received almost a tenth of an inch of rain, but most spots in western Oregon reported only trace amounts. East of the Cascades, areas of light rain extended northward to Meacham, in northeast Oregon, this morning. The main effect the storm was a strong influx of marine air Tuesday evening across western Oregon. That capped high temperatures Tuesday afternoon in the mid 60s in the south valley, but the Portland area managed to reach the mid 70s, for the second day in-a-row, before the cooler marine air began invading the north valley. Cloudy skies overnight held temperatures in the mid 40s to low 50s across western Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed massive cooling aloft compared with Tuesday afternoon. The freezing level had dropped from 9600 feet down to 5200 feet, and the air mass had become quite moist. Colder air aloft and southwesterly transport winds will make for excellent ventilation conditions across western Oregon today. The ODA surface analysis had a classic post marine-push pattern with onshore flow and the strongest pressure gradients over central and eastern Oregon. Westerly winds gusting over 30 mph were ushering cooler marine air across the eastern half of the state, with lighter southwesterly winds in the Willamette Valley. Skies should stay mostly cloudy today across western Oregon, with a chance of sprinkles, as strong onshore flow continues. Temperatures will be near to slightly below normal with highs only in the mid to upper 50s. Showers will continue over the eastern portions of the state, as the upper-level low-pressure system moved into Idaho. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 this morning, SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 15 this morning, SW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:49pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:38am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to weaken as it moves onshore Thursday but will likely be strong enough to bring some showers to most of western Oregon. A weak westerly flow aloft is forecast for the remainder of the week, bringing lots of clouds and seasonal temperatures. The latest computer guidance is still uncertain on the timing of a stronger system slated to move onshore sometime between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning, with a cool and unsettled pattern forecast for early next week. Tomorrow (09 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 42/54 Fri (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. 40/55 Sat (11 Apr): Becoming Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 40/57 Sun (12 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/57 Mon (13 Apr): Showers Likely. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 42/54 Tue (14 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/55 Wed (15 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 38/59 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Apr 9 08:59:45 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 09 Apr 2009 10:59:45 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, April 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, April 9th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: The upper-level trough that brought a fair amount of rain to south-central Oregon Wednesday, had moved eastward into to Rockies by early this morning. However, another, weakening, cold front pushed a new batch of clouds, along with areas of light rain and mountain snow, across the state overnight. Rainfall amounts have been very light, with the offshore cold front weakening under a split-flow pattern in the jet stream. Up to about one-tenth of an inch of rain has fallen across portions of western Oregon, with most areas seeing a few hundredths of an inch. The Salem sounding this morning showed a little more cooling aloft, since Wednesday, with the freezing level measured at just 4000 feet. ODOT road reports indicated some snow showers over the Cascade passes, with the road cameras showing wet pavement. Pass temperatures were near the freezing mark at mid-morning. The ODA surface analysis showed much weaker pressure gradients across the state compared with yesterday. A weak trough, associated with a cold front, was just off the coast, resulting in south-southeasterly gradients across most of the state. Winds were in the 5-15 mph range statewide. Mid-morning temperatures were in the mid to upper 40s west of the Cascades, with readings in the 30s to mid 40s across central and eastern Oregon. A developing low-pressure center, along the southern portion of the cold front, will take most of the rain and snow from this system into northern California today. However, as the weakening cold front moves onshore, a moist southwesterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy over Oregon with areas of very light rain and mountain snow continuing today. High temperatures will be similar to yesterday...several degrees below normal. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 this morning, SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 22 this morning, SW 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 110. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:50pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:36am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level trough will dive south of the region, into California, Friday. That will put Oregon under a split-flow pattern with weak southwesterly flow aloft keeping skies mostly cloudy but with only a minimal threat of rain. Temperatures will continue below normal. The next weather system will move mainly north of Oregon Saturday, but the trailing cold front should keep skies mostly cloudy with at least a chance of a little rain...mainly north. The jet stream becomes more consolidated over the region with a stronger system slated to come onshore sometime on Easter Sunday. The timing of that system has been the biggest question mark, but the lastest computer models are starting to agree on rain spreading across western Oregon Sunday afternoon and evening. A very cold upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region Monday, with the trough slowly pushing east Tuesday. A transitory ridge is forecast to bring some drying and warming around the middle of next week, but westerly flow aloft should keep skies mostly cloudy. Tomorrow (10 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 41/56 Sat (11 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 42/57 Sun (12 Apr): Rain Developing by Afternoon. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 44/57 Mon (13 Apr): Showers with Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 feet. 41/52 Tue (14 Apr): Decreasing Showers...Partial Clearing. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/54 Wed (15 Apr): Becoming Partly Sunny and Warmer. 35/59 Thu (16 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. 39/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 10 09:02:01 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2009 11:02:01 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Scheduled Monday, April 13th, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Friday, April 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weak upper-level trough set up camp of the Oregon coastline last night and pulled moisture northward into the state from another weather system moving into California. That kept skies cloudy overnight with areas of rain and mountain snow. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) observations showed that rainfall totals in the western Valleys, from Portland to Medford, ranged from about one-tenth of an inch to more than one-half of an inch. The greatest totals were in the Cascade foothills. The coast only received from a few hundredths of an inch to around one-quarter of an inch. Significant snow fell in the Cascades overnight, with the snow level near 3000 feet. Mt. Hood Skibowl reported 8 inches of new snow and Mt. Hood Meadows ppicked up 5 inches. Further south, Mt. Bachelor received 4 inches of snow, Willamette Pass 2 inches, and Mt. Ashland picked up 6 inches. Areas of rain and snow alos circulated northward across central and eastern Oregon overnight. Locally more than one-tenth of an inch fell from Klamath Falls north to Redmond and The Dalles. Rain also extended east to Burns and Rome. The lightest rain was in northeast Oregon, where most locations only picked up from a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch. The jet stream is pushing a vigorous upper-level trough into southern California this morning, with the trough along the Oregon coast weakening under a split-flow pattern aloft. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-bands associated with the northern trough beginning to shift north and east of western Oregon. Some breaks in the clouds were appearing over the Willamette Valley, and Doppler radar showed most of the rain had moved north, into Washington. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak southerly gradients across western Oregon and valley winds were light south-southeasterly at mid-morning. Temperatures were mostly in the mid 40s. ODOT road reports indicated that snow shower activity was also tapering off over the Cascades this morning with pass temperature near freezing. The offshore trough is forecast to continue weakening today, as it slowly drifts inland. Weak southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy with a chance for a few light showers...mainly over the mountains. Cool air aloft will help to cap valley high temperatures in the mid 50s, even with a few sunbreaks. Winds will stay fairly light and should turn more southwesterly this afternoon. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 10 this morning, SW 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 85. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:34am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system will weaken considerably, under a split-flow jet stream, as it moves onshore Saturday. It will be strong enough to maintain mostly cloudy skies across western Oregon, but rainfall should be less than one-tenth of an inch. The greatest valley rain totals will likely be in the northern Cascade foothills. Snow levels will be in the 3-4000 foot range. The jet stream is forecast to become more consolidated over Washington and Oregon Sunday, with a stronger system slated to come onshore. The lastest computer models show rain spreading across western Oregon by Sunday afternoon with the cold front moving through Sunday evening. A cold and vigorous upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region Monday. Showers on Monday could include small hail, in the afternoon, with quite low snow levels. The trough will slowly pushing east Tuesday with showers tapering off. A transitory ridge is forecast to bring some drying and warming around the middle of next week. Another system is forecast to move onshore late Thursday and Friday with more rain likely. Tomorrow (11 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 42/57 Sun (12 Apr): Rain Developing by Afternoon. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 44/57 Mon (13 Apr): Showers with Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 feet. 41/52 Tue (14 Apr): Decreasing Showers...Partial Clearing. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 36/54 Wed (15 Apr): Becoming Partly Sunny and Warmer. 35/61 Thu (16 Apr): Partly Sunny Early...Increasing Clouds Late. 38/65 Fri (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. 42/63 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 10 09:22:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 10 Apr 2009 11:22:04 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected Afternoon Transport Windspeed and Ventilation Index... ...Next Update Scheduled Monday, April 13th, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Friday, April 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weak upper-level trough set up camp just off the Oregon coastline last night and pulled moisture northward into the state from another weather system moving into California. That kept skies cloudy overnight with areas of rain and mountain snow. Community Collaborative Rain, Hail & Snow Network (CoCoRaHS) observations showed that rainfall totals in the western Valleys, from Portland to Medford, ranged from about one-tenth to more than one-half of an inch. The greatest totals were in the Cascade foothills. The coast only received from a few hundredths of an inch to around one-quarter of an inch. Significant snow fell in the Cascades overnight, with the snow level near 3000 feet. Mt. Hood Skibowl reported 8 inches of new snow and Mt. Hood Meadows ppicked up 5 inches. Further south, Mt. Bachelor received 4 inches of snow, Willamette Pass 2 inches, and Mt. Ashland picked up 6 inches. Areas of rain and snow also circulated northward across central and eastern Oregon overnight. Locally more than one-tenth of an inch fell from Klamath Falls north to Redmond and The Dalles. Rain also extended east to Burns and Rome. The lightest rain was in northeast Oregon, where most locations only picked up from a trace to a couple hundredths of an inch. The jet stream is pushing a vigorous upper-level trough into southern California this morning, with the trough along the Oregon coast weakening under a split-flow pattern aloft. Satellite imagery showed the main cloud-bands associated with the northern trough beginning to shift north and east of western Oregon. Some breaks in the clouds were appearing over the Willamette Valley, and Doppler radar showed most of the rain had moved north, into Washington. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak southerly gradients across western Oregon and valley winds were light south-southeasterly at mid-morning. Temperatures were mostly in the mid 40s. ODOT road reports indicated that snow shower activity had also tapered off over the Cascades this morning with pass temperature near freezing. The offshore trough is forecast to continue weakening today, as it slowly drifts inland. Weak southerly flow aloft will keep skies mostly cloudy with a chance for a few light showers...mainly over the mountains. Cool air aloft will help to cap valley high temperatures in the mid 50s, even with some sunbreaks. Winds will stay fairly light and should turn more southwesterly this afternoon. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 10 this morning, SW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:34am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system will weaken considerably, under a split-flow jet stream, as it moves onshore Saturday. It will be strong enough to bring mostly cloudy skies to western Oregon, but rainfall should be less than one-tenth of an inch. The greatest valley rain totals will likely be in the northern Cascade foothills. Snow levels will be in the 3-4000 foot range. The jet stream is forecast to become more consolidated over Washington and Oregon Sunday, with a stronger system slated to come onshore. The lastest computer models show rain spreading across western Oregon by Sunday afternoon with the cold front moving through Sunday evening. A cold and vigorous upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region Monday. Showers on Monday could include small hail, in the afternoon, with quite low snow levels. The trough will slowly push east Tuesday with showers tapering off. A transitory ridge is forecast to bring some drying and warming around the middle of next week. Another system is forecast to move onshore late Thursday and Friday with more rain likely. Tomorrow (11 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 42/57 Sun (12 Apr): Rain Developing by Afternoon. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 44/57 Mon (13 Apr): Showers with Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 feet. 41/52 Tue (14 Apr): Decreasing Showers...Partial Clearing. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 36/54 Wed (15 Apr): Becoming Partly Sunny and Warmer. 35/61 Thu (16 Apr): Partly Sunny Early...Increasing Clouds Late. 38/65 Fri (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. 42/63 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Apr 14 09:00:56 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Apr 2009 11:00:56 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front moved across Oregon Sunday, with a very cold upper-level trough dropping southward over the region Monday. The Easter Sunday cold front dropped more than an inch of rain along the northern Oregon coast and from one-quarter to one-half inch of rain along the central coast and across the Willamette Valley. The subsequent upper-level trough dramaticaly dropped the freezing level to just 3400 feet by Monday morning and down to 2100 feet this morning. Cold instability showers developed over the region Monday. Rainfall amounts varied from about one-tenth to one-third of an inch, from the coast to the Willamette Valley, with some hail and a few claps of thunder thrown in. Valley high temperatures were only near 50 degrees Monday afternoon, more than 10 degrees below normal. Strong westerly flow aloft created upslope conditions over the Cascades, with significant accumulations of new snow. Timberline Lodge has received 10 inches of snow in the past 24 hours and 18 inches of new snow since the weekend. They reported a base total this morning of a whopping 619 inches. Mt. Bachelor picked up 5 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours, and 6 inches fell on Willamette Pass. ODOT road cameras showed a December-like scene this morning over the Cascade passes, with snow-packed highways and temperatures near 20 degrees. Snow was visible on road surfaces in the Cascade foothills down to about 1000 feet this morning. It was also cold in the lower elevations of western Oregon this morning. Most of the Willamette Valley dropped at least into the mid 30s, and some spots, like Hillsboro and McMinnville, dipped to the freezing mark or below. Satellite imagery and doppler radar showed an organized cluster of showers rotating southward down the Oregon Coast and into southwestern Oregon. Another area of lighter showers was rotating southward along the southern Washington and northern Oregon Cascades. The air aloft is very cold with these showers and is supporting snowfall to very low elevations. Roseburg, at an elevation of only 525 feet, was reporting snow showers this morning with a temperature of 34 degrees. Some snow could mix with showers all the way to sea level this morning, but sticking snow will be confined to areas above 1000 feet. The cold upper-level trough will slowly slide southward today, with the center of circulation, currently over southern Oregon, moving into Nevada. That will turn the flow aloft more northerly and begin to dry out the air mass. However, the air aloft will remain very cold today, so daytime heating will generate instability showers with small hail and thunder possible. Mixing of cold air aloft down to the surface will hold Willamette Valley high temperatures near 50 degrees again this afternoon. Surface winds were quite variable this morning but should turn northwesterly this afternoon. The flow aloft is forecast to turn almost due northerly over western Oregon by tonight. Normally that is a dry pattern. However, the counterclockwise circulation around the Nevada upper-level low-pressure center will continue to feed moisture into Oregon for a chance of showers. Snow levels will reamin quite low. Partial clearing will, once again, allow western valley temperatures to drop to near the freezing mark. Surface Winds: SW 3-8 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 8 this morning, NW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4400 feet. Ventilation index 66. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 52%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:27am. Extended Outlook: Showers should end across northwestern Oregon Wednesday with slowly clearing skies. The snow level will be slow to climb and should only lift to around 3000 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Some showers could linger in the Cascades, and across eastern Oregon, through Wednesday evening. Willamette Valley high temperatures will stay well below normal but should recover into the mid 50s. a transitory ridge of high pressure will clear skies Wednesday evening, making for another chilly night across the western valleys. The next weather system will move mainly north of the regin but will increase clouds by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should climb to near-normal Thursday afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to bring a chance of rain back to northwestern Oregon Thursday night and Friday. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, but it is still not certain how strong the ridge will be. At this time, I will indicate a general warming and drying trend. Tomorrow (15 Apr): Slight Chance of an AM Shower. Afternoon Clearing. 33/56 Thu (16 Apr): Chilly Start...Increasing Clouds and Warmer in the Afternoon. 34/62 Fri (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 44/62 Sat (18 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 45/68 Sun (19 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warm. 45/68 Mon (20 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 45/72 Tue (21 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 45/72 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Apr 14 09:32:39 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 14 Apr 2009 11:32:39 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected Timberline Lodge Snow Base (report given earlier was annual snowfall)... Issued: Tuesday, April 14th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front moved across Oregon Sunday, with a very cold upper-level trough dropping southward over the region Monday. The Easter Sunday cold front dropped more than an inch of rain along the northern Oregon coast and from one-quarter to one-half inch of rain along the central coast and across the Willamette Valley. The subsequent upper-level trough dramaticaly dropped the freezing level to just 3400 feet by Monday morning and down to 2100 feet this morning. Cold instability showers developed over the region Monday. Rainfall amounts varied from about one-tenth to one-third of an inch, from the coast to the Willamette Valley, with some hail and a few claps of thunder thrown in. Valley high temperatures were only near 50 degrees Monday afternoon, more than 10 degrees below normal. Strong westerly flow aloft created upslope conditions over the Cascades, with significant accumulations of new snow. Timberline Lodge has received 10 inches of snow in the past 24 hours and 18 inches of new snow since the weekend. They reported a base total this morning of 204 inches. Mt. Bachelor picked up 5 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours, and 6 inches fell on Willamette Pass. ODOT road cameras showed a December-like scene this morning over the Cascade passes, with snow-packed highways and temperatures near 20 degrees. Snow was visible on road surfaces in the Cascade foothills down to about 1000 feet this morning. It was also cold in the lower elevations of western Oregon this morning. Most of the Willamette Valley dropped at least into the mid 30s, and some spots, like Hillsboro and McMinnville, dipped to the freezing mark or below. Satellite imagery and doppler radar showed an organized cluster of showers rotating southward down the Oregon Coast and into southwestern Oregon. Another area of lighter showers was rotating southward along the southern Washington and northern Oregon Cascades. The air aloft is very cold with these showers and is supporting snowfall to very low elevations. Roseburg, at an elevation of only 525 feet, was reporting snow showers this morning with a temperature of 34 degrees. Some snow could mix with showers all the way to sea level this morning, but sticking snow will be confined to areas above 1000 feet. The cold upper-level trough will slowly slide southward today, with the center of circulation, currently over southern Oregon, moving into Nevada. That will turn the flow aloft more northerly and begin to dry out the air mass. However, the air aloft will remain very cold today, so daytime heating will generate instability showers with small hail and thunder possible. Mixing of cold air aloft down to the surface will hold Willamette Valley high temperatures near 50 degrees again this afternoon. Surface winds were quite variable this morning but should turn northwesterly this afternoon. The flow aloft is forecast to turn almost due northerly over western Oregon by tonight. Normally that is a dry pattern. However, the counterclockwise circulation around the Nevada upper-level low-pressure center will continue to feed moisture into Oregon for a chance of showers. Snow levels will reamin quite low. Partial clearing will, once again, allow western valley temperatures to drop to near the freezing mark. Surface Winds: SW 3-8 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 8 this morning, NW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4400 feet. Ventilation index 66. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 52%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:27am. Extended Outlook: Showers should end across northwestern Oregon Wednesday with slowly clearing skies. The snow level will be slow to climb and should only lift to around 3000 feet by Wednesday afternoon. Some showers could linger in the Cascades, and across eastern Oregon, through Wednesday evening. Willamette Valley high temperatures will stay well below normal but should recover into the mid 50s. a transitory ridge of high pressure will clear skies Wednesday evening, making for another chilly night across the western valleys. The next weather system will move mainly north of the regin but will increase clouds by Thursday afternoon. Temperatures should climb to near-normal Thursday afternoon. A weak cold front is forecast to bring a chance of rain back to northwestern Oregon Thursday night and Friday. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend, but it is still not certain how strong the ridge will be. At this time, I will indicate a general warming and drying trend. Tomorrow (15 Apr): Slight Chance of an AM Shower. Afternoon Clearing. 33/56 Thu (16 Apr): Chilly Start...Increasing Clouds and Warmer in the Afternoon. 34/62 Fri (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 44/62 Sat (18 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 45/68 Sun (19 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warm. 45/68 Mon (20 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 45/72 Tue (21 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 45/72 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Apr 15 09:01:16 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 15 Apr 2009 11:01:16 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, April 15th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, April 15th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: The center of the upper-level trough that brought cool and showery weather to the region the past two days dropped south, to over Nevada, overnight. That turned the flow aloft over western Oregon more northerly and began drying out the air mass. However, moisture was continuing to circulate into eastern Oregon, where some snow flurries were falling this morning. Significant snow fell in the Cascades Tuesday. Timberline Lodge reported 10 inches of new snow, Mt. hood Meadows and Skibowl both reported 8 inches, Mt. Bachelor 4 inches, and Willamette Pass had 6 inches. The air aloft is still quite cold this morning, with the freezing level over Salem measured at 2700 feet. The Cascades passes were snow-packed with temperatures in the mid 20s. The combination of a cold air mass over the region and some partial clearing overnight allowed Willamette Valley temperatures to drop near or slightly below the freezing mark early this morning. Hillsboro and McMinnville dropped down to at least 30 degrees, and Corvallis hit the freezing mark. The ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across Oregon with weak strong pressure gradients across western Oregon and very strong gradients east of the Cascades. Westerly winds were gusting to more than 30 mph across eastern Oregon with gusts of 52 mph at Baker City. In contrast, westerly winds were blowing less than 10 mph across western Oregon. The strong onshore flow was very evident on the mid-morning visible satellite imagery. It was forming a cloud-deck along the western slopes of the Cascades...extending westward over much of the central and eastern Willamette Valley. There were also low clouds along the coast and western slopes of the coast range. A pronounced area of clearing extended along the eastern slopes of the coast range and the Cascades, due to downsloping westerly winds. That was helping to bring some sunshine to the western side of the Willamette Valley and much of central Oregon this morning. Meanwhile, considerable cloud-cover, from the low-pressure system over Nevada, had circulated northweard over the east half of Oregon. Dopper radar showed most of the shower activity was just south and east of Oregon, but some light precipitation was making it into eastern Oregon. Low clouds along the coast were also producing areas of light rain or drizzle. No rain was being reported in the Willamette Valley, but radar was showing some possible light rain, drizzle, or flurries (depending on elevation) along the western slopes of the Cascades...extending westward into the eastern Willamette Valley. Willamette Valley temperatures were in the 30s to low 40s with low to mid 40s along the coast. It was much colder east of the Cascades, where temperatures were struggling to get much above freezing in most areas. As the Nevada weather system continues to slowly drift to the east, the air aloft over Oregon with will slowly warm today. However, it should still be cold enough for daytime heating to spawn convective clouds, which will fill in the clear areas over the western Willamette Valley. Although showers over the western valleys are unlikely today, a few snow showers will likely persist over the Cascades into this evening. The snow level will only lift to around 3000 feet this afternoon. Slightly warmer air aloft will help Willamette Valley temperatures climb in the mid 50s this afternoon, after only reaching the upper 40s and low 50s Tuesday. Surface Winds: WSW 5-10 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NW 10 this morning, NW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 83. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:58pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:25am. Extended Outlook: Clearing skies tonight will, once again, allow western valley temperatures to drop to near or locally below the freezing mark with light winds. The next weather system will increase clouds across western Oregon by Thursday afternoon. Warming aloft, ahead of a weak cold front, will help temperatures climb to near-normal Thursday afternoon. The cold front is forecast to bring some light rain to mainly the northern sections of the western Oregon, beginning Thursday evening. Moslty cloudy skies should spread across the State Friday, but precipitation will be light and limited mainly to areas from the Cascade crest westward. An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend for dry and warmer conditions. The ridge will likely extend the warm and dry weather through the first half of next week. Tomorrow (16 Apr): Chilly Start...Increasing Clouds and Warmer in the Afternoon. 34/62 Fri (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Light Rain at Times...Mainly North. 44/62 Sat (18 Apr): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 42/70 Sun (19 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 44/75 Mon (20 Apr): Sunny and Warm. 46/76 Tue (21 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 47/75 Wed (22 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Mild. 43/69 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Apr 16 09:03:42 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 16 Apr 2009 11:03:42 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, April 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, April 16th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: Clearing skies and calm winds overnight allowed temperatures to, once again, drop into the low to mid 30s across most of western Oregon. Some spots in the Willamette Valley dipped to or below the freezing mark. McMinnville had a low of 31 degrees early this morning. Hillsboro, Corvallis, and Eugene fell to 32 degrees, and Salem hit 34. Skies also cleared east of the Cascades, where most areas fell below freezing. Cold temperatures strethced from a chilly 21 degrees in Meacham (northeast Oregon) to 19 degrees at Klamath Falls (south-central Oregon). The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed weak southerly gradients across western Oregon but continued strong onshore gradients near the Idaho border. There was still enough westerly wind across eastern and southeastern Oregon overnight to keep that area a little warmer. Baker City barely dropped below freezing, with a minimum of 31 degrees. Burns did manage to drop down to 23. West winds were still gusting to nearly 30 mph in Ontario at mid-morning, near the Idaho border, keeping the temperatures there in the 40s overnight. Satellite imagery showed clouds from the next weather system already moving onto the coastline at mid-morning, with high clouds extending east to the Cascades. A cold front, about 250 miles offshore, will slowly move east today with clouds increasing across the state. Doppler radar was already showing some weak echoes just off the northern Oregon Coast, so some sprinkles are possible along the coast today. It should stay dry inland through this afternoon, with increasing southerly winds and warmer air aloft (the freezing level over Salem was 6200 feet this morning) helping temperatures recover to near normal. Light rain will likely move onto the coast by this evening and spread inland overnight. The bulk of the moisture from this system is forecast to remain north of Oregon, with a weaker portion of the cold front dragging across western Oregon Friday morning. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be from one-tenth to one-quarter of an inch in the extreme north valley and taper off to less than one-tenth of an inch over the extreme south valley. Surface Winds: S 3-6 this morning, S 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 6 this morning, S 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 42. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 62. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:59pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:24am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Pacific Northwest this weekend for dry and warmer conditions through the first half of next week. Cooler and damp conditions may return for the second half of next week, with a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast to drop into the regin from the Gulf of Alaska. Tomorrow (17 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Light Rain at Times...Mainly North. 44/60 Sat (18 Apr): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 38/70 Sun (19 Apr): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 44/75 Mon (20 Apr): Sunny and Warm. 45/78 Tue (21 Apr): Increasing Clouds and Cooler. 45/68 Wed (22 Apr): Chance of Rain and Cool. 44/57 Thu (23 Apr): Showers and Cool. 40/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 17 09:04:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 17 Apr 2009 11:04:10 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 17th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...No noon update today... Issued: Friday, April 17th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: Clouds increased Thursday evening across western Washingtona and western Oregon in response to an approaching cold front. Rain moved onto the northern Oregon coast shortly before midnight and into the northern Willamette Valley in the pre-dawn hours this morning. Cloudy skies overnight held temperatures in the mid to upper 40s across western Oregon. Rainfall amounts were fairly impressive across the northwestern corner of Oregon, but rapidly tapered off to the south. Astoria has received over one-half inch of rain, with about one-quarter of an inch falling in the northern Willamette Valley, not of about Aurora. Further to the south, about one-tenth of an inch of rain has fallen from Salem to Eugene with only a trace to a few hundredths across the interior of southwestern Oregon. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed a weak cold front just pushing onto the Oregon Coast with southerly gradients across western Oregon. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering most of Washington and the western half of Oregon. Doppler radar indicated areas of rain across most most Washington and northwestern Oregon. The freezing level was measured over Salem at 7200 feet this morning, so rain has been falling over the Cascade passes. There is not much cold air forecast in the wake of the front, so any port-frontal showers will be light and should taper off rapidly later this afternoon. Valley highs will climb to near 60 degrees with southerly winds turning more westerly this afternoon. There is also a chance for partial clearing this afternoon. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, W 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 25 this morning, W 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 125. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:00pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:22am. Extended Outlook: A strong upper-level ridge is forecast to begin building over the Pacific Northwest Saturday, with the next storm system being directed north into southern British Columbia Saturday night and Sunday. Low-level winds will turn northerly Saturday afternoon through Sunday, with significant warming and drying of the air mass. Temperatures should climb to well above normal. The upper-level ridge is forecast to build directly over Oregon Monday, which should be the warmest day of the early-season hot spell. The upper-level ridge is forecast to shift east of the state by Tuesday, with increasing onshore flow likely beginning a cool-down. The long-range computer models are beginning to show different tracks of a fairly strong upper-level trough forecast to drop into the Pacific Northwest for the second half of next week. Some of the models are keeping this system farther offshore, which would not bring as much cooling to the region as earlier forecasts. I will only make minor upward temperature adjustments to the second half of the extended forecast at this time. By the next update, on Monday, the computer models will likely have a much better handle how much cooling and precipitation we will get during the second half of next week. Reminder...there will be no noon update today. Tomorrow (18 Apr): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 36/70 Sun (19 Apr): Sunny and Warmer. 41/76 Mon (20 Apr): Sunny and Very Warm. 45/80 Tue (21 Apr): Mostly Sunny. A Little Cooler. 46/73 Wed (22 Apr): Increasing Clouds and Cooler. Chance of Rain. 44/63 Thu (23 Apr): Showers Likely with More Cooling. Snow Level 4-5000 feet. 44/60 Fri (24 Apr): Showery and Cool. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Apr 20 08:52:59 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 20 Apr 2009 10:52:59 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, April 20th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, April 20th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure built over the Pacific Northwest during the weekend...lifting temperatures to near-normal Saturday and well above normal on Sunday. Highs Saturday climbed into the low to mid 60s along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, with southwestern Oregon warming well into the 70s. Sunday was 5-10 degrees warmer for most areas, with highs in the upper 60s along the coast and mid to upper 70s in the Willamette Valley. Medford was the hot spot in the state Sunday at 85 degrees. In the Willamette Valley, Aurora and Portland were the warmest spots, both topping out at 79. Even with clear skies and light winds ovenight, the warm air mass over the region only allowed Willamette Valley minimums to drop into the low to mid 40s early this morning. McMinnville and Hillsboro dipped down to 42 degrees. Corvallis and Eugene dropped to 43. Aurora stayed at a balmy 50 overnight, and the Portland Airport recorded a mild minimum of 47. The ODA surface analysis this morning showed a thermal trough along the southern Oregon Coast. It was having a hard time building northward, due to an active westerly jet stream cutting across British Columbia. Visible satellite imagery showed coastal low clouds and fog extending down the length of the Washington Coast and along most of the Oregon Coast...about as far south as North Bend. There were some clear areas along the coastline, due to the weakness of the onshore flow. Skies were mostly clear over the remainder of Oregon, with just a few high clouds...mainly over the northern third of the state. The upper-level ridge is continuing to build over Oregon today. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed a couple more degrees of warming aloft since Sunday morning. Morning low clouds and fog should back off the coastline later this morning, with sunshine prevailing statewide this afternoon. High temperatures should climb into the low 80s, in the Portland area, with upsloping northerly winds keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler in the central and southern valley. North-northeasterly transport winds are not conducive to good ventilation for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Surface Winds: NNE 5-12 this morning, N 8-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 12 this morning, NNE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 80. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 30%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:17am. Extended Outlook: More sunshine is in store Tuesday, with a strong upper-level ridge staying over the region. It will likely start off a little warmer than today, but the ridge is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by Tuesday afternoon. That will increase the onshore flow enough to keep temperatures from getting much warmer than they will today. Much more significant cooling will begin Wednesday, as a cold upper-level trough, from the Gulf of Alaska, dives southeastward towards the Pacific Northwest. Increasing westerly flow aloft will advance the surface thermal trough into Idaho with strong onshore flow developing across all of Oregon. A surface cold front will also increase clouds during the day, from the northwest, with a chance of showers moving into the northern Willamette Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A potent surface cold front is forecast to sweep across the state late Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a cool upper-level trough Friday. The long-range computer guidance is farily consistent in forecasting another cool trough to drop southward over the region next weekend, maintaining a chance of showers and seasonably cool temperatures. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northeasterly and dry out next Monday. Tomorrow (21 Apr): Sunny and Unseasonably Warm. 46/80 Wed (22 Apr): Increasing Clouds and Much Cooler. Chance of Showers by Afternoon. 45/67 Thu (23 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 42/57 Fri (24 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/59 Sat (25 Apr): Seasonably Cool with a Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 39/60 Sun (26 Apr): Seasonably Cool with a Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 39/60 Mon (27 Apr): Mostly Sunny. A Little Warmer. 37/64 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Apr 21 09:00:51 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 21 Apr 2009 11:00:51 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, April 21st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 2:00pm until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: Most of Oregon basked in sunny skies Monday with unseasnably warm temperatures. Highs climbed into the low 80s in the northern Willamette Valley and into the upper 70s in the south valley. There was a wide range of temperatures along the coast, due to band of low clouds and fog that hugged the central coastline but stayed offshore along the north and extreme south coast. Newport was only 55 degrees with low clouds all day. Cold northwesterly winds also kept North Bend in the mid 50s. However, Astoria warmed to 67 degrees, and Tillamook hit 64. Brookings, on the extreme southern coast, had sunny skies and downsloping winds, which warmed them to 80 degrees. Several daily high temperatures were either tied or broken Monday from southwestern Oregon, across central Oregon, and into eastern Oregon. Medford was the hot spot in the state with a record-breaking 90 degrees. Redmond and Burns tied their daily record highs of 83 and 79 respectively. The Dalles set a new record high with 87 degrees. Clear skies and light winds overnight allowed overnight temperatures to drop back into the 40s across the Willamette Valley. Eugene, McMinnville, and Hillsboro all dipped to at least 41 degrees early this morning. Aurora and Portland stayed in the upper 40s. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough along the southern Oregon Coast, with a weak branch of it over the southern Willamette Valley. Surface gradients were light northern across western Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed northeasterly winds from just above the surface to about 3000 feet...backing to northwesterly above 5000 feet and southwesterly above 8000 feet. Temperatures remained very warm aloft, so one more unseasonably warm day it on tap. Visible satellite imagery showed low clouds and fog along the Washington and Oregon coastlines...about as far south as North Bend. There was some penettation of low clouds into the coastal mountain gaps this morning..indicating increased onshore flow, compared with yesterday. Skies were sunny across the remainder of the state. Mid-morning temperatures were a degrees or two warmer over most of the interior of Oregon, compared to the same time yesterday. Readings were in the mid 40s along the coast and generally in the 50s across the interior of both western and eastern Oregon. Sunshine should prevail statewide this afternoon, with the exception of local areas of low clouds and fog along the coastal strip. Increasing onshore flow late this afternoon will make for cooler high temperatures along the coast today and similar highs compared to yesterday in the western valleys. Highs will likely be a couple of degrees warmer than yesterday east of the Cascades, whre the onshore flow will not really kick in until tonight. Since some of the daily record high temperatures in the western valleys are not as warm today as they were for yesterday, some records could be reached today. The record high for Salem today is only 80 degrees, so that could be met this afternoon. The thermal trough will be forced east of the Cascades this evening, with increasing onshore flow bringing low clouds into the western valleys overnight. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 12 this morning, NNW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 80. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:15am. Extended Outlook: Significant cooling will begin Wednesday, as a cold upper-level trough, from the Gulf of Alaska, dives southeastward towards the Pacific Northwest. Increasing westerly flow aloft will advance the surface thermal trough into Idaho with strong onshore flow developing across all of Oregon. A surface cold front will also increase the chance of showers along the coast and into the Willamette Valley by Wednesday afternoon. A potent surface cold front is forecast to sweep across the state late Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a cool upper-level trough Friday. The long-range computer guidance is farily consistent in forecasting another cool trough to drop southward over the region next weekend, maintaining a chance of showers and seasonably cool temperatures. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northeasterly and dry out early next week, with a building ridge of high pressure bringing back above normal temperatures by Tuesday. Tomorrow (22 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Much Cooler. Chance of Showers by Afternoon. 45/63 Thu (23 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 42/57 Fri (24 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 38/59 Sat (25 Apr): Seasonably Cool with a Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 39/60 Sun (26 Apr): Seasonably Cool with a Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 39/60 Mon (27 Apr): Mostly Sunny. 37/64 Tue (28 Apr): Sunny and Warm. 40/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Apr 22 09:04:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 22 Apr 2009 11:04:50 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, April 22nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: Sunny skies prevailed statewide Tuesday afternoon, with the exception of local areas of low clouds and fog along the coastal strip. Highs temperatures were similar to Monday, with many daily records tied or broken across state. Here are some of the records set Tuesday afternoon: Location High Tuesday Previous Record Willamette Valley Portland Downtown 82 degrees (record 79 set in 1959) Portland Airport 82 degrees (record 77 set in 1982) Troutdale 82 degrees (record 81 set in 1986) Hillsboro 80 degrees (tied record set in 1982) Salem 81 degrees (record 80 set in 1918) Southwestern Oregon Medford 92 degrees (record 88 set in 1986) East of the Cascades The Dalles 87 degrees (record 85 set in 1986) Redmond 84 degrees (tied record set in 1986) Pendleton 83 degrees (tied record set in 1956) Meacham 72 degrees (tied record set in 1956) Baker City 84 degrees (record 82 set in 1986) Burns 83 degrees (record 80 set in 1986) Rome 86 degrees (record 84 set in 1942) The ridge of high pressure that brought the unseasonably warm weather had shifted well east of the rgion this morning with a vigorous but fairly dry upper-level trough dropping southward along the British Columbia Coastline. The ODA surface analysis showed a cold front pushing into the Washington Cascades and trailing back across extreme northwest Oregon. Strong onshore flow had deveoped across Western and central Washington and was beginning to increase across western Oregon. Pressure gradients were still weak across central and eastern Oregon. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering most of Washington at mid-morning, but the clouds had only progressed as far south and east as the northwest corner of Oregon. Most of Oregon was still enjoying sunshine. Temperatures were mostly in the 40s and low 50s statewide. No precipitation was being reported in Oregon, but rain has been falling this morning across sections of western Washington...including the Seattle area. Doppler radar was not showing much in the was of shower activity south of about the central Washington coast. Clouds and northwesterly winds will increase, from northwest to southeast, across western Oregon today, as the cold front slowly pushes southeastward across the region. Cooler onshore flow will drop high temperatures about 20 degrees across western Oregon today. The cooler air will arrive later today across eastern Oregon, where high temperatures will only be about 10 degrees cooler than they were yesterday. The air mass will slowly moisten with time, with an increasing chance of showers later today and tonight...especially over the mountains and along the coast. Surface Winds: NW 5-15 this morning, NW 10-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 15 this morning, NW 18 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 63. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 43%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:14am. Extended Outlook: A potent surface cold front will usher a cuch cooler air mass into the state tonight and Thursday...followed by a cold but fairly dry northerly flow aloft Friday. Another cool trough is forecast to drop southward over the region this weekend, maintaining a chance of showers, mainly over the mountains, and below normal temperatures. Overnight minimums could approach the freezing mark across normally colder sections of the Willamette Valley beginning Friday morning. The American long-range computer model shows the flow aloft turning northerly and drying out early next week, with a building ridge of high pressure bringing back above normal temperatures by Tuesday. However, the Canadian and European computer models maintain a cool upper-level trough over the Pacific Northwest. My forecast reflects the warmer forecast shown by the American model, since it has been outperforming the other models recently. Tomorrow (23 Apr): Mostly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/57 Fri (24 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 33/59 Sat (25 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 34/60 Sun (26 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 feet. 35/60 Mon (27 Apr): Mostly Sunny. 35/64 Tue (28 Apr): Sunny and Warmer. 39/70 Wed (29 Apr): Sunny and Warm. 42/71 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Apr 23 08:59:37 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 23 Apr 2009 10:59:37 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, April 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: What a difference a couple of days make! The Pacific Northwest rapidly made the transition from an early spring heat-wave to the deep chill in just 48 hours. On Tuesday, record highs were being tied or broken across most of Oregon, with Willamette Valley highs in the upper 70s and lower 80s. Cooler air began pouring across western Oregon Wednesday, with high temperatures dropping 15-20 degrees. However, the eastern third of the state was still basking in record warmth. After setting a record high Tuesday, with 83 degrees, Burns tied the record high Wednedsay with 77. Ontario, near the Idaho border, hit 86 degrees both Tuesday and Wednesday. Rome, in southeastern Oregon, set a record Tuesday with 86 degrees and only cooled to 84 degrees Wednesday. By mid-morning today, the ODA surface analysis showed the cold front had just pushed through Rome, Oregon, with a much colder, but fairly dry, air mass spreading across all but the extreme southeast corner of the state. The Salem sounding showed about the most impressive 24-hour cooling I have ever seen. The 5000-foot temperature dropped 29 degrees F from Wednesday morning to this morning, and the freezing level plunged from 10,300 feet to just 2700 feet. As you have probably guessed, significant westerly winds accompanied the push of cold air, especially across central and eastern Oregon. Wind gusts in excess of 30 mph were common from Redmond, to Pendleton, to Burns, to Baker City Wednesday afternoon. West winds gusted to more than 40 mph at the eastern end of the Columbia Gorge, at The Dalles. Northwesterly winds gusted to about 25 mph from the coast across the Willamette Valley Wednesday. It was a dry cold front with no rain reported across the state Wednesday. The air mass is slowly moistening, with a cold upper-level trough dropping over the region from the northwest. Satellite imagery showed a broad band of mainly middle and high clouds, associated with the cold front, stretching from Montana, across Idaho and most of eastern Oregon. The was considerable clearing, in the wake of the front, across central and southwestern Oregon. Doppler radar showed some instability showers rolling onshore into northwestern Oregon, but precipitation amounts so far this morning have been very light. Areas along the northern and central coast have picked up a few hundredths of an inch, with showers extending about as far south as Newport. Just trace amounts of rain have fallen so far in the northern Willamette Valley, and the south valley has remained dry. The chance of showers will increase across western Oregon today, with the approaching upper-level trough and daytime heating combining to increase the instability of the atmosphere. That will also help to create excellent ventilation conditions across the region, with mixing heights lifting to around 5000 feet this afternoon. Precipitation amounts should be less than one-tenth of an inch, with the best chance of showers over the northern coast range and Cascades. Very cold air aloft locally dropped the snow level to 1500 feet this morning, and it will only lift to about 3000 feet this afternoon. Temperatures dropped into the 30s across western Oregon with some Willamette Valley locations flirting with the freezing mark. McMinnville dropped to 32 degrees this morning. Hillsboro dipped to 33 and Salem fell to 34. The coast was also chilly this morning, with Newport recording a minimum of just 36 degrees. Mid-morning temperatures had only recovered into the upper 30s and low 40s across western Oregon. There was a wide range of temperatures east of the Cascades this morning. Light winds and clear skies allowed readings in central Oregon to drop into the mid 20s, while clouds and gusty winds held temperatures near 50 along the eastern border. Considerable sunshine is forecast today for central and southwest Oregon, with clearing skies over eastern Oregon. Sun with mix with clouds and a few showers over northwestern Oregon. Further cooling west of the Cascades will keep highs below normal, with today being the day for massive cooling across central and eastern Oregon. Highs from Redmond to Rome will be 20-30 degrees cooler today, than on Wednesday, even with some sunshine. The upper-level trough will continue to slide east tonight, to over southeastern Oregon by early Friday. Clearing skies and a cold air mass will allow temperatures to fall below freezing across much of the Willamette Valley overnight, so frost-sensitive vegetation may need protection. Surface Winds: NW 5-10 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NW 7 this morning, NW 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:08pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:12am. Extended Outlook: A cold but dry northerly flow aloft is forecast for Friday. After a frosty morning, mostly sunny skies will help temperatures recover to near-normal in the afternoon. It will be another locally frosty morning Saturday, with mostly clear skies and light winds. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to turn the flow aloft more northwestly by Saturday afternoon, which may bring a few more clouds back to the region and a slight chance of showers over the northern mountains. The air aloft will cool slightly, with the snow level only around 4000 feet. A little stronger upper-level impulse is forecast to side mainly across eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon on Sunday. That should bring even more clouds to the region with a slight chance of showers extending westward to over northwestern Oregon. Snow levels will remain near 4000 feet with a chance of snow showers over the northern Cascades and mountains of northeastern Oregon. The long-range computer models are beginning to show consensus and are trending towards the cooler Canadian and European model solutions. Even the American model is showing another cool upper-level trough dropping down from Canada, in the northerly flow aloft, and setting up camp over the Pacific Northwest for the first half of next week. That would keep temperatures near normal and maintain a threat of showers...mainly over the northern mountains. I have trended my extended forecast temperatures downward and introduced at least a slight chance of showers through next Wednesday. Tomorrow (24 Apr): Mostly Sunny But Cool. 31/60 Sat (25 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Chance of Mountain Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 32/59 Sun (26 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 35/58 Mon (27 Apr): Partly cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet 35/61 Tue (28 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 35/59 Wed (29 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet. 36/62 Thu (30 Apr): Partly Cloudy. A Little Warmer. 38/65 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 24 09:04:54 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 11:04:54 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, April 24th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold but fairly dry upper-level trough brought scattered showers to western Oregon Thursday with some reports of small hail. After a record-breaking warm start to the work-week, temperatures were well below normal with highs only in the mid 50s. The cooler weather spread across the entire state during the day. Temperatures only climbed into the 50s, all the way east to the Idaho border, where highs Wednesday were in the mid 80s. Rainfall amounts were generally less than a tenth of an inch in the northern Willamette Valley, and it stayed dry in the south valley. Less than an inch of new snow fell in the northern Cascades. Only trace amounts of rain made it east of the Cascades. In the wake of the trough, clearing skies allowed temperatures to locally drop below freezing this morning across western Oregon and into the teens and 20s across central and eastern Oregon. McMinnville dropped to 30 degrees this morning and Hillsboro hit 31. Eugene also found the freezing mark. Baker City was the cold spot east of the Cascades with a low of 17 degrees. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over western Washington and western Oregon with light pressure gradients. Visible satellite imagery showed patchy low clouds in the northern Willamette Valley and over southwestern Oregon with mostly clear skies elsewhere west of the Cascades. There were still clouds covering the extreme southeast corner of Oregon with fair skies elsewhere east of the Cascades. Temperatures were in the 30s and low 40s across the state. Dry northerly flow aloft will bring a mostly sunny but cool day to the entire state today with below normal temperatures. Slight warming aloft will help valley highs climb to near 60 degrees. Surface Winds: N 3-9 this morning, NNW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 9 this morning, NNW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 55. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 36%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:09pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:10am. Extended Outlook: It will be another locally frosty morning Saturday, with mostly clear skies and light winds. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to turn the flow aloft more northwestly by Saturday afternoon, which may bring a few more clouds back to the region and a slight chance of showers over the northern mountains. The air aloft will cool slightly, with the snow level only around 4000 feet. A little stronger upper-level impulse is forecast to slide mainly across eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon on Sunday. That should bring even more clouds to the region with a slight chance of showers extending westward to over northwestern Oregon. Snow levels will remain near 4000 feet with a chance of snow showers over the northern Cascades and mountains of northeastern Oregon. The long-range computer models are showing another cool upper-level trough dropping down from Canada, in the northerly flow aloft, and setting up camp over the Pacific Northwest through at least the first half of next week. That would keep temperatures near to slightly below normal and maintain a threat of showers...mainly over the mountains. Tomorrow (25 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 34/57 Sun (26 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 35/57 Mon (27 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet 35/59 Tue (28 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 36/58 Wed (29 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/60 Thu (30 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 36/62 Fri (01 May): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 38/64 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Apr 24 11:59:06 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 24 Apr 2009 13:59:06 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, April 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Until Tuesday, April 28th, at 9:00am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, April 24th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: In the wake of the cold upper-level trough, that brought a few showers to northwestern Oregon and much cooler weather to the entire state Thursday, clearing skies overnight allowed temperatures to locally drop below freezing this morning across western Oregon and into the teens and 20s across central and eastern Oregon. McMinnville dropped to 29 degrees this morning and Hillsboro hit 30. Eugene and Corvallis also hit the freezing mark. Baker City was the cold spot in the state with a minumum of 17 degrees. Meacham and Burns were not much warmer, both recording lows of 20 degrees. Areas of low clouds, early this morning across western Oregon, had given way to mostly sunny skies by midday. A weak upper-level ridge was warming the air mass aloft enough to cap convective clouds and prevent them from building into showers. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over western Washington and western Oregon with weak northerly pressure gradients over western Oregon and stronger northwesterly gradients across eastern Oregon. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across all but the extreme southeast corner of Oregon at midday. Winds were generally northerly at 10 mph or less across western Oregon but increased to nearly 20 mph from south-central to eastern Oregon. Temperatures were mostly in the upper 40s and low 50s on both sides of the Cascades. A dry and stable north-northeasterly flow aloft will keep skies mostly clear throug this evening, although continued cool air aloft will ony allow valley temperatures to climb to about 60 degrees this afternoon. Northerly winds will become more northwesterly by this evening. High mixing heights and north-northwesterly transport winds will make for good ventilation conditions across western Oregon this afternoon. Surface Winds: NNW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 55. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 36%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:09pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:10am. Extended Outlook: It will be another locally frosty morning Saturday, with mostly clear skies and light winds. An upper-level disturbance is forecast to turn the flow aloft more northwestly by Saturday afternoon. The bulk of the energy from this system will pass well east of the region, but some cooling and destabilizing of the air mass will bring a few more clouds back to northern Oregon along with a slight chance of an afternoon shower. The snow level will be around 4000 feet, so a few snow showers are possible in the northern mountains. Another upper-level impulse is forecast to slide mainly across eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon late Sunday, but it will help a stronger upper-level trough to start carving out over the Pacific Northwest. That should keep temperatures below normal. A much stronger system is forecast to drop over the region late Monday and Tuesday for an increased chance of showers and continued low snow levels. The showers should taper off, from west to east, across the state on Wednesday. A drier but continued cool north-northeasterly flow aloft is forecast for next Thursday and Friday. That will likely bring back mostly sunny and cool weather, much like we are seeing today across the state. Tomorrow (25 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 34/57 Sun (26 Apr): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 35/59 Mon (27 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4500 Feet 35/59 Tue (28 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 36/58 Wed (29 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/60 Thu (30 Apr): Partly Cloudy. 36/63 Fri (01 May): Mostly Sunny. Seasonably Cool. 38/65 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Apr 28 09:01:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 28 Apr 2009 11:01:31 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, April 28th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:00pm. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Alaska brought a northern flow aloft to the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. A series of weather disturbances dropped into the region, from Canada, eventually carving out a fairly vigorous trough over Washington and Oregon by Monday. Showers spread across most of western Oregon by Monday evening with some locally heavy rainfall in the north valley. CoCoRaHS reports indicate up to three-quarters of an inch of rain fell, in the past 24 hours, in sections of Clackamas County with nearly two-thirds of an inch in the Cascade foothills of Marion County. One-half inch of rain was reported at the Aurora Airport. Most areas along the coast, the central and southern Willamette Valley, and across southwestern Oregon have picked up from a few hundredths to around one-tenth of an inch of rain since Monday, with the northern Willamette Valley generally getting between one-tenth and one-quater of an inch. Rain and snow has also been falling from the Cascades eastward locally more than one-quarter of an inch of rain reported from central Oregon to the Idaho border. Meacham, in the Blue Mountains of northeast Oregon, has picked up over one-half inch of precipitaion in the past 24 hours...a mixture of rain and wet snow. The air aloft of Oregon is quite cold this morning with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 4000 and 3900 feet respectively. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering vitually the entire Pacific Northwest with Doppler Radar indicating multiple bands of showers rotating across the entire region. Snow showers were falling over the Cascade passes with an inch or two of new snow and some snow on the roadways. Light to moderate showers were falling in the Willamette Valley. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across Oregon with southerly gradients in the Willamette Valley. Valley winds were generally less than 10 mph. Temperatures were mostly in the mid to upper 40s west of the Cascades and in the 30s and 40s across central and eastern Oregon. Showers will continue statewide thoughout the day, with well below normal temperatures. Some showers could produce brief locally heavy rainfall and small hail. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, SSW 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 12 this morning, SW 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 52. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:14pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:04am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level low pressure area over the region will slowly weaken Wednesday and push eastward to over Idaho by Thursday afternoon. Showers will taper off with moderating temperatures. A warmer westerly flow aloft will send a weak weather system into southern Oregon and northern California Friday with an increasing chance of light showers moving northward, into the southern Willamette Valley, late in the day. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore by Saturday night with rain becoming likely by Sunday across western Oregon. An even stronger system is slated to move onshore Tuesday, in a strengthening westerly flow aloft. Tomorrow (29 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Showers. 40/58 Thu (30 Apr): Slight Chance of AM Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. 39/62 Fri (01 May): Increasing Clouds and Warmer. Slight Chance of Showers Late. 42/69 Sat (02 May): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Rain Late. 45/68 Sun (03 May): Rain Likely. 47/64 Mon (04 May): Mostly Cloudy. 44/66 Tue (05 May): Rain Likely. 47/63 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Apr 29 09:04:18 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 29 Apr 2009 11:04:18 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, April 29th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, April 29th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level trough brought cool and damp weather to the entire Pacific Northwest Tuesday. Rainfall amounts varied greatly due to the showery nature of the precipitation. Some amounts were impressive on both sides of the Cascades. Between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch fell along most of the coast and in the Willamette Valley with some areas getting around up to an inch. Around one-tenth of an inch of rain was common in southwestern and eastern Oregon, although areas of northeastern Oregon picked up close to one-half inch. Snow levels were only at 3000 feet Tuesday, with 8 inches of new snow reported at Mt. Hood Meadows and 2 inches at Mt. Bachelor. Several inches of snow also fell in the mountains of northeastern Oregon. Showers continued overnight around the state with morning satellite imagery showing cloudy skies covering most of the Pacific Northwest. A circulation center was just off the central Oregon Coast, with Doppler radar showing more intense showers near that low-pressure center along and just off the central coast. Lighter showers were scattered over the Willamette Valley with the bulk of the precipitation over the Cascades. Mid-morning temperatures were in the low to mid 40s across western Oregon, with 30s to mid 40s east of the Cascades. The morning sounding over Salem showed further cooling aloft, in response to the cold upper-level trough over the region. The freezing level was only 3400 feet. The upper-level is forecasst to weaken slightly as it drifts slowly south and eventually inland tonight. Daytime heating should destabilize the air mass and increase shower activity over the region. Some showers could include small hail or a clap of thunder. High tempertures will, once again, only climb into the low to mid 50s west of the Cascades...about 10 degrees below average. Surface Winds: SE 5-10 this morning, Becoming NE 4-8 late this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 13 this morning, ESE 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4500 feet. Ventilation index 59. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 55. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 57%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:15pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:03am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level trough will continue to weaken and move east, to over Idaho, Thursday. Shwers will end west of the Cascades with skies becoming partly sunny. A warmer westerly flow aloft will send a weak weather system into southern Oregon and northern California Friday with a slight chance of light rain moving as far north as the southern Willamette Valley Friday aftenoon and night. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore by Saturday night with rain becoming likely. Rain will turn to showers Sunday. An even stronger system is slated to move onshore Tuesday, in a strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft. Depending on the track of the low-pressure system, this storm make also produce blustery weather along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Yet another storm is forecast to move onshore Wednesday afternoon. Tomorrow (30 Apr): Slight Chance of AM Showers. Becoming Partly Sunny. 36/62 Fri (01 May): Increasing Clouds and Warmer. Slight Chance of Rain South Late. 42/69 Sat (02 May): Mostly Cloudy. Rain Likely Late. 45/64 Sun (03 May): Rain Early...Turning to Showers. 47/60 Mon (04 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 42/63 Tue (05 May): Rain Likely and Possibly Windy. 47/63 Wed (06 May): Increasing Rain Late. 44/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Apr 30 09:01:57 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2009 11:01:57 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, April 30th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next update scheduled for Tuesday, May 5th, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, April 30th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level trough over the region combined with daytime heating Wednesday afternoon to enhanced the shower activity across Oregon. A few claps of thunder were heard over portions of the Willamette Valley late in the day, before evening cooling stabilized the air mass. The upper-level trough that brought cool and damp weather to the entire Pacific Northwest Tuesday and Wednesday moved inland late Wednesday and was centered near the Oregon/ Idaho border this morning. Skies began clearing Wednesday evening across western Oregon with light winds allowing temperatures to generally cool into the mid 30s. Corvallis briefly dipped to the freezing mark early this morning. Hillsboro and McMinnville dropped to 33 degrees, while Salem and Eugene hit 34. Risidual low clouds covered most of the Willamette Valley this morning with areas of fog from the north coast to the south valley around Eugene. However, visible satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies from the coastal mountains west to most of the the beaches and over the Cascades. Closer to the upper-level trough, cloudy skies continued to cover much of central and eastern Oregon with scattered snow showers over the eastern third of the state. Rainfall totals were quite variable across western Oregon on Wednesday, with the greatest totals a little farther south than on Tuesday. Astoria and Hillsboro did not record measurable rain, while Corvallis and Eugene picked up around one-quarter of an inch. A few showers also fell over southwestern Oregon with Roseburg recording .03 inches. Scattered rain and snow showers fell Wednesday from the Cascades eastward into Idaho. Mt. Hood Skibowl received 6 inches of new snow, Timberline Lodge had 4 inches, and Mt. Bachelor had 3 inches. Areas east of the Cascades picked up between a few hundredths to nearly one-quarter of an inch of rain Wednesday, with snow showers dropping as low as about 3000 feet by this morning. Both John Day and Baker City were getting snow showers this morning with temperatures in the low to mid 30s. Doppler radar showed only light shower activity over eastern Oregon at mid-morning, with drier conditions moving in from the west. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to mid 40s across western Oregon, with readings in the 30s and 40s east of the Cascades. The morning sounding over Salem showed several degrees of warming and much drier air above 2000 feet, compared with Wednesday morning, which was an indication that the upper-level trough had moved east. Transport winds had turned northeasterly and the freezing level had risen to 5000 feet. Clearing skies overnight allowed a thin layer of near-freezing air to develop below 500 feet, but it was already responding to the warming effects of the April sun by mid-morning. The air mass will continue to dry out and warm up across Oregon today, from west to east, as the cold and moist upper-level trough, near the Idaho border, drifts eastward and weakens. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building over western Oregon with weak northerly gradients beginnning to develop in the Willamette Valley. Onshore flow continued from the Cascades into Idaho. Northerly gradients are forecast to strengthen slightly today across western Oregon. Skies should clear over the Willamette Valley by this afternoon with mostly sunny and warmer conditions. Highs will climb to near-normal. Surface Winds: N 3-8 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 6 this morning, NE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 64. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:17pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:01am. Extended Outlook: A warmer westerly flow aloft will send a weak weather system into southern Oregon and northern California Friday with a slight chance of light rain moving as far north as the southern Willamette Valley Friday aftenoon and night. Valley temperatures could climb above normal Friday afternoon. A stronger system is forecast to come onshore Saturday night with rain becoming likely by late in the day. Rain will turn to showers Sunday. Monday appears to be a break between storms with another system slated to move onshore Tuesday, in a strengthening west-southwesterly flow aloft. Depending on the track of the low-pressure system, that system could make for windy conditions along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Yet another storm is forecast to move onshore later Wednesday. Tomorrow (01 May): Increasing Clouds and Warmer. Slight Chance of Rain South Late. 38/69 Sat (02 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Rain Likely Late. 47/63 Sun (03 May): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 47/58 Mon (04 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 42/62 Tue (05 May): Rain Likely and Possibly Windy. 47/63 Wed (06 May): Increasing Rain Late. 44/62 Thu (07 May): Showers. 44/62 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us