From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 4 08:59:32 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 04 Feb 2009 10:59:32 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 4th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Willamette Valley temperatures climbed into the mid and upper 50s Tuesday afternoon with Aurora hitting 60 degrees. Offshore winds helped coastal temperatures soar to 70 degrees at Tillamook and Newport. It was also very mild in the mountains Tuesday, with Timberline Lodge topping out at 55 degrees. The freezing level was at 11,000 feet Tuesday afternoon. East of the Cascades, Redmond and Klamath Falls both had highs Tuesday of 62 degrees. However, some valley locations stayed in the mid and upper 40s. Fair skies and light winds overnight allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across much of the Willamette Valley by early this morning, with minimums in the upper 20s common. The exception was near the western end of the Comumbia Gorge, where brisk easterly winds kept the low-level air stirred up, and minimum temperatures stayed near 40 degrees. Offshore pressure gradients were still in place this morning across the state. Easterly winds were gusting at high as 30-40 mph at times from Troutdale to Corbett. Winds were light in the Willamette Valley, but easterly winds were blowing around 10 mph along the coast at Newport. A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure will continue the dry and mild weather today across the region. The freezing level was between 10,000 and 11,000 feet over western Oregon. The Salem sounding showed a strong low-level temperature inversion from the surface, where temperatures were near freezing, up to 2500 feet, where temperatures were in the upper 50s. That will make for very poor ventilation conditions again today, with mixing heights below 1000 feet. Satellite imagery showed areas of fog in the southern Willamette Valley and the valleys of southwestern Oregon. Dry offshore flow kept fog from forming across most of the north valley overnight. Middle and high clouds covered most of the state, in response to an upper-level low pressure system off the California coast. That will result in some filtering of the sunshine this afternoon, which should cap temperatures a few degrees cooler than on Tuesday. Valley highs will be generally in the low to mid 50s with light winds. Middle and high clouds should continue to increase overnight, with areas of fog forming...mainly in the central and south valley. Temperatures should not be quite as chilly overnight with minimums close to the freezing mark. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, N 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 4 this morning, N 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 700 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 52%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:25pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:26am. Extended Outlook: Major changes in the weather pattern are in store, beginning Thursday, across the Pacific Northwest. A weather system, dropping southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska, will combine forces with the upper-level low pressure system, off the California coast, and bring mostly cloudy skies with increasing showers to western Oregon Thursday afternoon through Friday. The freezing level should drop to near 6000 feet Thursday afternoon, and down to 4000 feet Friday, with improving ventilation conditions. Overnight minimums will be warmer, but daytime highs will progressively cool. A transitory ridge will likely bring a dry and farily mild day to the region Saturday with a stronger weather system bringing rain and mountain snow on Sunday. Showers will continue into Monday with very low snow levels. A warm front may spread light rain back across northwestern Oregon by Tuesday afternoon with a cold front bringing increasing rain and mountain snow again Wednesday. Tomorrow (05 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of PM Showers. 33/50 Fri (06 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Scattered Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/48 Sat (07 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Mild. Freezing Level 5-6000 Feet. 34/51 Sun (08 Feb): Rain with Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 34/46 Mon (09 Feb): Decreasing Showers. Show Level 1500 Feet. 35/46 Tue (10 Feb): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level Rising to 3500 Feet. 33/46 Wed (11 Feb): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 6 09:01:06 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 06 Feb 2009 11:01:06 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The massive upper-level ridge of high pressure, that brought stagnant weather conditions to the Pacific Northwest for most of January, is finally breaking down. A weather system, dropping southeastward from the Gulf of Alaska, helped to kick inland an upper-level low pressure system, off the California coast. The combination of systems brought cloudy skies to the region Thursday with light spreading across western Oregon Thursday evening. The morning sounding over Salem showed a deep layer of significant cooling, since Thursday morning. There was still a weak low-level temperature inversion, from the surface up to about 1500 feet, but ventilation conditions have dramatically improved over the region. freezing level had dropped from 8900 feet Thursday morning to only 4800 feet this morning. ODOT road cameras showed snow beginning to fall over the Cascade passes this morning with pass temperatures near freezing. In contrast, clouds and rain kept valley temperatures warmer overnight, where minimums were near 40 degrees. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak pressure gradients across Oregon and Willamette Valley winds were were light at mid-morning. Rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours range from about one-tenth to one-third of an inch across western Oregon. The weak upper-level trough over the region is forecast to push far enogh east by this afternoon for the flow aloft to become northerly and begin drying out. Showers will decrease across western Oregon this afternoon and evening. The snow level should drop to about 3000-3500 feet with several inches of snow possible over the Cascade passes. Valley temperature will be cooler this afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. High pressure will begin building into the coastline with surface winds becoming north-northwesterly. Partial clearing overnight should promote fog formation across much of western Oregon with temperatures dropping into the mid 30s. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, NNW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 3 this morning, N 9 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1900 feet. Ventilation index 17. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 76%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:28pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:24am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge will likely bring a dry and farily mild day to the region Saturday. Another weather system is forecast to bring more rain and mountain snow Sunday afternoon and night with the snow level dropping to 3000 feet. Showers will continue Monday with very low snow levels. There may be a brief break early Tuesday, ahead of the next cool weather system. More cool weather systems are forecast to sweep across the region later in the week. Sat (07 Feb): Areas AM Fog. Partly Cloudy and Mild. Freezing Level 5-6000 Feet. 34/51 Sun (08 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Rain Developing PM. Snow Level 3-4000 feet. 32/46 Mon (09 Feb): Showers...Decreasing Late. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 34/45 Tue (10 Feb): Areas AM Fog. Rain Developing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 2000 Feet. 32/45 Wed (11 Feb): Showers...Decreasing Late. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 34/45 Thu (12 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Rain Late. 34/47 Fri (13 Feb): Rain with Mountain Snow. Snow Level 1000 Feet. 34/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Feb 9 09:01:30 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Feb 2009 11:01:30 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, February 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, February 9th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: A Pacific cold front dropped between one and two-tenths of an inch of rain along the coast Sunday with lighter amounts inland. Snow levels dropped to about 2000 feet Sunday afternoon, with about 1-3 inches of new snow falling in the Cascades. Cloudy skies held Willamette Valley highs in the mid to upper 40s Sunday, after a mostly sunny Saturday with highs in the low to mid 50s. The cold front pushed east of the Cascades Sunday night with clearing skies and a cool air mass allowing temperatures to drop below freezing across most of western Oregon...including along the coast. Hillsboro was one of the colder spots, in the Willamette Valley, droping at least down to 26 degrees. McMinnville and Eugene both dipped to 28. Along the coast, Astoria fell to 30 degrees and tempertures fell to the freezing mark as far south as North Bend and Brookings. Meanwhile, cloudy skies and areas of very light snow kept central and eastern Oregon temperatures mostly in the 20s overnight, with a few areas dropping in the teens. Satellite and Radar showed an impressive line of showers, associated with an upper-level trough, just moving onto the coastline at mid-morning. The air mass with these showers is quite cold, and Astoria was even reporting light snow with temperatures in the low 30s. The upper-level trough, and associated showers, will move across western Oregon later this morning through early this afternoon. The snow level will be between 500 and 1000 feet, but wet snow could mix to the valley floor at times. High temperatures will only climb into the low to mid 40s. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some partial clearing overnight with temperatures, once again, dropping to near or below the freezing mark across most of western Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed significant cooling from near the surface to 30,000 feet, with southerly low-level winds becoming northwesterly above about 2000 feet. The freezing level was measured at just 2100 feet. Ventilation conditions across western Oregon should be good today, as the upper-level trough moves onshore. Low-level winds are southerly this morning but are forecast to turn more westerly, in the wake of the upper-level trough, later this afternoon. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, WSW 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 10 this morning, W 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 43. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:20am. Extended Outlook: Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to spread clouds and precipitation back onshore Tuesday morning. The air mass will initially be quite cold, so the precipitation will begain as snow down to very low elevations...perhaps even on the valley floors. The low-pressure center is forecast drop southward, off the Oregon Coast, late Tuesday. That will keep the low-level winds offshore and maintain very low snow levels across all of western Oregon...especially near the Columbia Gorge. The National Weather Service has issues a Winter Storm Watch, for possible significant snow Tuesday, in the coastal range, the Columbia Gorge, the Cascade foothills (above 1000 feet), and for the Cascades. Wet snow could fall on the valley floors, but significant accumulations are not expected at the very lowerest elevations. This system will need to be watched closely for the potetial to produce sticking snow even at sea level, especially in the extreme northern Willamette Valley, due to the persistent offshore flow, from the Columbia Gorge, keeping the low-level air mass cold. The rain and snow should taper off late Tuesday, as the low-pressure center moves inland into northern California. A few showers or flurries are still possible into Wednesday...especially in the south valley. Wednesday morning temperatures will be near freezing with afternoon highs warming a few degrees from Tuesday. The next system is forecast to take more of a southerly track, mainly into northern California, with some light rain and snow possibly spreading as far north as about Portland Thursday night and Friday. Some drying is expected Saturday, under a cold northerly flow aloft. Tomorrow (10 Feb): Rain/Snow Mix. Significant Snow Above 1000 Feet. 31/42 Wed (11 Feb): Decreasing areas of light Rain/Snow. Partial PM Clearing. 32/46 Thu (12 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain/Snow Mix. 32/45 Fri (13 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain/Snow Mix. 32/45 Sat (14 Feb): Gradual Clearing and Cool. 30/47 Sun (15 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Cool. 28/48 Mon (16 Feb): Mostly Sunny and Cool. 28/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Feb 9 11:57:52 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Feb 2009 13:57:52 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, February 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Monday, February 9th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: A Pacific cold front dropped between one and two-tenths of an inch of rain along the coast Sunday with lighter amounts inland. Snow levels dropped to about 2000 feet Sunday afternoon, with about 1-3 inches of new snow falling in the Cascades. After a mostly sunny afternoon Saturday, with Willamette Valley temperatures in the low to mid 50s, cloudy skies held highs in the mid to upper 40s Sunday afternoon. The cold front pushed east of the Cascades Sunday night with clearing skies and a cool air mass allowing temperatures to drop below freezing across most of western Oregon...including along the coast. Hillsboro and Eugene were a couple of the colder spots, in the Willamette Valley, both recording minimums of 26 degrees. McMinnville and Aurora dipped to 27. Corvallis and Salem bottomed out at 30 and 31 degrees respectively. Along the coast, Astoria had a low of 29 degrees with tempertures locally dropping below freezing south to Brookings. Meanwhile, cloudy skies and areas of very light snow kept central and eastern Oregon temperatures mostly in the 20s overnight, with a few areas dropping in the teens. An impressive line of showers, associated with an upper-level trough, moved onshore at mid-morning. The air mass with these showers was cold enough to bring snow showers to sections of the coastal strip. About one-half inch of snow fell in Lincoln City with snow showers also reported in Astoria. The upper-level trough had pushed slightly east by late this morning and was bringing snow showers to the coastal range. Some rain and snow showers were also making their way into the western half of the Willamette Valley. McMinnville was reporting a light snow shower at 11am, with a temperature of just 33 degrees. Salem and Eugene had warmed into the low 40s, just ahead of the upper-level trough. The air aloft is very cold, so the showers should cool valley temperatures back down into the mid 30s early this afternoon. The snow level will be between 500 and 1000 feet, but wet snow could mix to the valley floor at times. Total precipitation values will generally be less than one-tenth of an inch. High temperatures will only climb into the low to mid 40s. A transitory ridge of high pressure will bring some partial clearing overnight with temperatures, once again, dropping to near or below the freezing mark across most of western Oregon. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed a very cold air mass aloft. The freezing level was measured at just 2100 feet, which will likely drop further with the passage of the upper-level trough early this afternoon. The cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to produce significant mixing of the atmosphere, making for good ventilation conditions across western Oregon this afternoon. Southerly low-level winds should veer to westerly, in the wake of the trough later this afternoon. Partial clearing overnight will combine with the cold air mass to drop valley temperatures to near or below freezing. Surface Winds: WSW 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 43. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:32pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:20am. Extended Outlook: Another cold Pacific storm is forecast to spread clouds and precipitation back onshore Tuesday morning. The air mass will remain quite cold during this entire storm. Precipitation may begin as snow, all the way to sea level, with the snow level lifting to no higher than about 2000 feet in the afternoon (lower in the north valley). As the low-pressure center is drops southward, along the Oregon Coast, late Tuesday, cool outflow from the Columbia Gorge will maintain very low snow levels, especially in the north valley. The National Weather Service has issues a Winter Storm Watch, for 3-6 inches of possible snow Tuesday, in the coastal range, the Columbia Gorge, and the western Cascade foothills (above 1000 feet). The Cascades will also likely see up to 6 inches of new snow. Wet snow could fall on the valley floors, but significant accumulations are not expected below 500 feet. This system will need to be watched closely, because it has the potential to produce sticking snow even at sea level, especially in the extreme northern Willamette Valley. The rain and snow should taper off by early Wednesday, as the low-pressure center moves inland into northern California. A few showers or flurries are still possible into Wednesday...especially in the south valley. The snow level should be around 500-1000 feet. Wednesday morning temperatures will be near freezing with afternoon highs warming into the mid 40s. The next system is forecast to take more of a southerly track, moving mainly into northern California. Snow levels will remain very low with some rain and snow possibly spreading as far as the oregon/Washington border late Thursday and Friday. Computer models are fairly consistent in forecasting a split-flow jet stream pattern Saturday through Monday, with weather systems moving by both north and south of Oregon. It is too far out to tell if the region will stay completely dry during that time period, but it is possible. Temperatures will slowly moderate but should remain below normal. Tomorrow (10 Feb): Rain/Snow Mix. Significant Snow Above 1000 Feet. 31/42 Wed (11 Feb): Decreasing areas of light Rain/Snow. Partial PM Clearing. 32/46 Thu (12 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain/Snow Mix. 32/45 Fri (13 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain/Snow Mix. 32/45 Sat (14 Feb): Gradual Clearing and Cool. 30/47 Sun (15 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Cool. 28/48 Mon (16 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Cool. 30/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 10 09:01:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2009 11:01:08 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 8:00am until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 8:00am until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: Satellite imagery showed the next in a series of cold Pacific storms moving onto the coastline at mid-morning. The leading edge of the clouds had already advanced into central Oregon, with a solid cloud shield extending westward close to 200 miles offshore. Dopler radar showed light precipitation across western Washington and western Oregon about as far south as Roseburg. The air mass aloft is very cold, with the freezing level over Salem this morning measured at just 900 feet. Surface temperatures are in the low to mid 30s from Seattle to Medford, so precipitation started falling mostly in the form of light snow...even along the Washington and northern Oregon Coastlines. The low-pressure center was about 450 miles west of the central Washington coast at mid-morning and tracking slowly to the southeast. It is forecast to be just off the central Oregon coast by Wednesday morning. With the low-pressure center forecast to stay offshore, cool outflow from the Columbia Gorge will maintain very low snow levels in the Gorge and the northern Willamette Valley, near Portland. However, southerly winds will increase in the central and southern valleys later this morning and this afternoon, which should help to lift the snow level to around 1500 feet. Some light accululation (less than one inch) is locally possible this morning, especially north of Salem. There have already been reports of about one-half inch of snow around McMinnville. Precipitation will increase across western Oregon later this morning through early this afternoon, as the main cold front moves onshore. Precipitation will remain as snow at elevations above about 1500 feet with 3-6 inches of snow likely. The National Weather Service has issued Winter Weather Advisories for the coastal range, the western Columbia Gorge (including the immediate Portland/Vancouver area), the western Cascade foothills (above 1000 feet), and the Cascades. Temperatures are marginal for sticking snow to persist in the lower elevations around Portland, because outflow from the Columbia Gorge is not that cold. It will likely barely stay cold enough in the Gorge for snow to accumulate down to the Columbia River level. However, that will need to be watched closely today, because a couple of degrees can make the difference between wet pavement and several inches of wet snow. At the very least, expect winter driving conditions today over all western Oregon and western Washington mountain passes...including the coastal range passes. Temperatures in the valley should warm into the low 40s this afternoon, as southerly winds increase and become rather blustery (gusts to near 30 mph are possible). Southerly winds will also increase along the northern and central Oregon Coast later this morning through late afternoon, where High Wind Warnings have been issued for gusts to near 65 mph. The brisk southerly winds will only warm coastal temperatures into the mid 40s, so it will feel quite raw there. Very cold air aloft will yield reasonably high mixing heights this afternoon. That, combined with brisk southerly transport winds, will make for good ventilation conditions over the region today. The latest weather advisories from the National Weather Service are at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The latest road conditions across Oregon may be found at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCmap.asp?curRegion=0&mainNav=RoadConditions Surface Winds: SSE 10-20 this morning, S 12-25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 41. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 73%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:18am. Extended Outlook: The rain and snow should taper off Wednesday, from north to south across western Oregon, as the low-pressure center moves inland near the southern Oregon/northern California border. The snow level should hover around 500-1000 feet. Wednesday morning temperatures will be near freezing with cool northerly winds only allowing afternoon highs to warm into the low to mid 40s. Some clearing is likely Wednesday night and early Thursday. That will allow temperatures to fall below the freezing mark Thursday morning. The next system is forecast to take a slightly more of a southerly track, but it should bring more rain and snow to western Oregon Thursday afternoon through early Friday. The snow level should be near the valley floors again with significant snow accumulations possible above about 1000 feet, especially south. Computer models are fairly consistent in forecasting a split-flow jet stream pattern Saturday through Monday, with weather systems moving by both north and south of Oregon. It is unlikely that the region will stay completely dry during that time period. Temperatures will slowly moderate but should remain below normal until about Tuesday. Tomorrow (11 Feb): Decreasing Areas of light Rain/Snow. Partial PM Clearing. 32/46 Thu (12 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain/Snow Mix. 28/45 Fri (13 Feb): Decreasing Rain and Snow. Snow Level Near 1000 Feet. 32/45 Sat (14 Feb): Gradual Clearing and Cool. 28/47 Sun (15 Feb): Partly Cloudy and Cool. Chance of Showers. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 28/48 Mon (16 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 3000 feet. 32/48 Tue (17 Feb): Rain and Warmer. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 10 12:16:36 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 10 Feb 2009 14:16:36 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, February 10th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: Another in a series of cold weather systems brought light snow to most of western Washington and the interior of western Oregon this morning, north of about Roseburg. There was little accumulation below 500 feet with an inch or two of snow at elevations above about 1000 feet. The first band of precipitation moved east of the Cascades around mid-morning, with the snow tapering off and mixing with rain across the Willamette Valley. Rain was beginning to increase again, along with the south wind, by late this morning. Satellite imagery showed the main cold front nearing the coastline late this morning, with Doppler radar showing a more substantial surge of moisture moving onshore. The ODA surface analysis showed rapidly increasing southeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon, in response to the approaching cold front. South-southeasterly winds had increased to between 10 and 15 mph in the Willamette Valley, with gusts to near 25 mph in the Salem area. Southerly winds were also rapidly increasing along the coast, with Lincoln City getting gusts to more than 40 mph. Southerly winds were helping to warm temperaures into the mid and upper 30s across western Oregon. The air mass aloft is still very cold. The freezing level over Salem early this morning was measured at just 900 feet, and that is forecast to only rise to about 2500 feet by late this afternoon. That puts the snow level at or below about 1500 feet for the duration of this storm system, and the bulk of the precipitation is yet to come. That means the mountains are going to get a fair amount of new snow later today. Satellite imagery showed a fairly intense low-pressure center a litle more than 300 miles west of the central Washington Coast and continuing to drift southeastward. It is forecast to be just off the central Oregon coast by Wednesday morning. Cool outflow from the Columbia Gorge will increase this afternoon, as the low-pressure center moves close to the northern Oregon Coast. That will maintain very low snow levels in and near the Columbia Gorge...perhaps down to river level. However, increasing southerly winds should help snow levels stay above the valley floor, south of the Portland area, as the main surge of moisture rolls onshore this afternoon. Precipitation will remain as snow at elevations above about 1500 feet with 3-6 inches of snow likely this afternoon and evening. The steady rain and snow will turn showery, in the wake of the front, tonight, with snow levels dropping very near the valley floors. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Warning for the western Columbia Gorge, where wet snow may accumulate down the river level later today. Winter Weather Advisories are still in effect for the coastal range, the Portland/Vancouver area, the western Cascade foothills (above 1500 feet), and the Cascades. Temperatures are marginal for sticking snow in the lower elevations around Portland, because outflow from the Columbia Gorge is not that cold. It will likely barely get cold enough in the Gorge for snow to accumulate down to the Columbia River level. only a couple of degrees can make the difference between wet pavement and several inches of wet snow, so check road conditions before planning trevel in these areas later today and tonight. At the very least, expect winter driving conditions today over all western Oregon and western Washington mountain passes...including the coastal range passes. Temperatures in the valley should warm into the low 40s this afternoon, as southerly winds increase and become rather blustery (gusts to near 30 mph are possible). Southerly winds will continue to increase along the northern and central Oregon Coast this afternoon, where High Wind Warnings have been issued, until 4pm, for gusts to near 65 mph. Very cold air aloft will yield reasonably high mixing heights this afternoon. That, combined with brisk southerly transport winds, will make for good ventilation conditions this afternoon across the region. The latest weather advisories from the National Weather Service are at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The latest road conditions across Oregon may be found at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCmap.asp?curRegion=0&mainNav=RoadConditions Surface Winds: S 12-25 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 41. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 73%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:18am. Extended Outlook: The rain and snow should taper off Wednesday, from north to south across western Oregon, as the low-pressure center moves inland near the southern Oregon/northern California border. The snow level should hover around 500-1000 feet. Wednesday morning temperatures will be near freezing with cool northerly winds only allowing afternoon highs to warm into the low to mid 40s. Some clearing is likely Wednesday night and early Thursday. That will allow temperatures to fall below the freezing mark Thursday morning. The next system is forecast to take a slightly more of a southerly track, but it should bring more rain and snow to western Oregon Thursday afternoon through early Friday. The snow level should be near the valley floors again with significant snow accumulations possible above about 1000 feet, especially south. Computer models are fairly consistent in forecasting a split-flow jet stream pattern Saturday and Sunday, with weather systems moving by both north and south of Oregon. It is unlikely that the region will stay completely dry during that time period, so I have kept a chane of showers in the forecast with continued very low snow levels. A more organized system may move onshore Monday night and Tuesday, but that is getting too far out to call at this point. Temperatures will stay well below normal through the weekend and possible warm to near normal by next Tuesday. Tomorrow (11 Feb): Decreasing Areas of light Rain/Snow. Partial PM Clearing. 32/46 Thu (12 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain/Snow Mix. 28/45 Fri (13 Feb): Decreasing Rain and Snow. Snow Level Near 1000 Feet. 32/45 Sat (14 Feb): Partial Clearing and Cool. 28/47 Sun (15 Feb): Chance of Showers and Cool. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 28/48 Mon (16 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 3000 feet. 32/48 Tue (17 Feb): Increasing Rain and Warmer. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 11 09:00:59 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Feb 2009 11:00:59 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A cool weather system, from the Gulf of Alaska, brought rain and snow to the region Tuesday, with the snow level initially near the valley floors. The snow level lifted to about 1500 feet overnight, and the precipitation tapered off. Skies were mostly cloudy overnight with occasional showers across western Oregon. Temperatures stayed above freezing with valley minimums in the mid to upper 30s. Satellite imagery and surface reports showed the low-pressure center, off the southern Oregon coast, continuing to slowly drift southeastward. A fairly impressive cloud-shield, wrapping around it, spread across most of Oregon. Doppler radar showed numerous showers, rotating northward, from northern California to Portland, Oregon. As the low-pressure center slowly weakens and comes onshore, near the Oregon/California border this afternoon, shower activity should taper off, from north to south, across Oregon. Temperatures will stay below normal, with valley highs only near 45 degrees (normal would be in the low 50s). The air mass is slowly warming over the region. The morning soundings measured the freezing levels over Salem and Medford at 2900 and 3500 feet respectively. Another few inches of snow are possible today, above about 2000 feet, before the showers taper off tonight. Showers will be most numerous across sotuhwestern Oregon. Transport winds this morning were southeasterly and should back to northeasterly, as the low-pressure system continues to move south and east. Northeasterly transport winds are not favorable for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Plan on continued winter driving conditions over mountain passes above 1500 feet today and tonight. ODOT road cameras showed wet pavement with areas of slush over the coastal passes and packed snow over the Cascade passes. Temperatures have remained just warm enough in the Columbia Gorge to avoid significant snow accumulation at river-level, where travel conditions appeared okay this morning. Skies should begin to clear tonight, which will allow many areas in the valley and in the Gorge to fall below freezing by Thursday morning. Some road surfaces could become slick, so travel with caution overnight and early Thursday. There may also be areas of fog formation overnight in the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: NE 5-15 this morning, N 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: E 12 this morning, NE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 24. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:35pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system, in this latest series of cool storms from the Gulf of Alaska, is forecast to take a slightly more of a southerly track, but it should bring more rain and snow to western Oregon late Thursday and Friday. With increasing offshore flow, the snow level may drop to around 500-1000 feet early Friday, with accumulation snow likely again over the coastal and Cascade passes. Some wet snow may locally mix to the valley floors, but significant accumulations below 1000 feet are not expected. The bulk of the moisture from this system will move into southwestern Oregon and northern California. The next weather system is forecast to take an even more southerly track, Sunday and Monday, with the bulk of the moisture staying south of Oregon. That will maintain a cool offshore low-level flow across western Oregon, so temperatures will stay well below normal with low snow levels. the next system is forecat to come onshore Tuesday, and that one may also be directed mainly into California. Thu (12 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 1000 Feet. 28/45 Fri (13 Feb): Decreasing Rain and Snow. Snow Level Near 1000 Feet. 33/44 Sat (14 Feb): Partial Clearing and Cool. Slight Chance of a Shower. 30/47 Sun (15 Feb): Chance of Showers and Cool. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 30/47 Mon (16 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 feet. 32/48 Tue (17 Feb): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/48 Wed (18 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 12 09:19:06 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 12 Feb 2009 11:19:06 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 12th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 12th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 3:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 3:30pm. Weather Discussion: Clearing skies last night combined with light winds and a cold air mass over the region to drop temperatures well below freezing across most of western Oregon. Willamette Valley minimums fell into the 20s, with areas of icy fog forming. Hillsboro was at least as cold as 22 degrees this morning, approaching their record low of 20 degrees, set in 1948. McMinnville dipped to at least 24, Salem and Aurora hit 26 degrees, and Eugene dipped to 27. Some wet road surfaces may have turned icy overnight, especially in foggy areas, so travel with caution this morning. Temperatures were still at or below freezing, across most of western Oregon, at 8am. Satellite imagery showed high clouds already increasing over western Washington and western Oregon, in response to the next in a series of cold weather systems dropping into the region from the Gulf of Alaska. A surface low-pressure center was developing about 300 miles west of the central Washington coast. The associated cold front was still a couple of hundred miles offshore and extended south to off the northern California coast. This storm is forecast to take a slightly more of a southerly track than the system that moved through the region Tuesday and Wednesday, with the bulk of the precipitation headed for California. As the low-pressure center slowly drifts southeastward, the associated cold front will bring increasing clouds to western Oregon today with rain moving onto the coast later this afternoon. Valley highs will climb into the mid 40s with increasing south-southeasterly winds. The air mass remains very cool over the region with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 2300 and 2900 feet respectively early this morning. Increasing offshore low-level flow will maintain quite low snow levels tonight and Friday. Expect sticking snow, above about 1000 feet, in the coastal range tonight with a 2-4 inches of new snow likely. Snow totals will increase to the south. Rain will move into the western valleys this evening with snow levels dropping to around 500 feet in the north valley, by early Friday, and to about 1000 feet in the south valley. A few inches of new snow are also likely over the Cascade passes...especially across the southern half of the state. Some wet snow may locally mix to the valley floors tonight and Friday, but accumulations below 500 feet are not expected. Total precipitation amounts, tonight and Friday, will likely be less than one-quarter of an inch across the Willamette Valley, with most of the moisture from this system moving into southwestern Oregon and northern California. Cloudy and damp conditions should keep most valley minimums slightly above freezing tonight. Surface Winds: SSE 0-7 this morning, SSE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 7 this morning, S 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1800 feet. Ventilation index 22. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:36pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:15am. Extended Outlook: Clearing skies Friday night should allow valley temperatures to, once again, drop well below freezing. Saturday will be a break-day between storm systems with partial clearing and just a slight chance of a shower. The next weather system is forecast to take an even more southerly track, Sunday and Monday, with the bulk of the moisture rotating across southern Oregon and northern California. That storm track will maintain a cool offshore low-level flow across western Oregon, so snow levels will remain between 1000 and 3000 feet. Tuesday, a weak upper-level trough over Oregon will maintain low snow levels and a chance of showers. The chance of showers will decrease Wednesday and Thursday with more clearing. Temperatures should moderate closer to normal by Thursday. Tomorrow (13 Feb): Decreasing Rain and Snow. Snow Level Near 1000 Feet. 33/44 Sat (14 Feb): Partial Clearing and Cool. Slight Chance of a Shower. 27/47 Sun (15 Feb): Chance of Showers and Cool. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 30/46 Mon (16 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 feet. 30/48 Tue (17 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/48 Wed (18 Feb): Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 33/50 Thu (19 Feb): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 33/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 13 09:07:27 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 11:07:27 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 13th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 13th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Light rain moved onshore and into the western valleys Thursday night and was already tapering off this morning. Rainfall amounts were around one-tenth of an inch or less, with the bulk of the moisture from this latest weather system moving south of the region, into California. Cloudy skies and areas of light rain kept valley temperatures above freezing overnight with most minimums in the mid 30s. The air mass is still quite cold over Oregon. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at just 2100 and 1900 feet respectively early this morning. That puts the snow level near 1000 feet this morning. ODOT road cameras showed mostly wet pavement over the coastal mountain passes, although packed snow was reported over Sunset Summit, on HWY 26. The Cascade and Siskiyou paseses were snow-packed, with new snow amounts ranging from less than an inch on Mt. Hood up to about 4 inches over sections of the southern Cascades and Siskiyous. The ODA surface analysis put the low-pressure center about 100-150 miles off the southern Oregon/northern California coast, with northeasterly pressure gradients across western Oregon. As the low-pressure center continues to drift southeastward, pressure gradients will slowly turn more northerly across western Oregon this afternoon. Transport wind directions are not conducive to good valley ventilation for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Skies should remain mostly cloudy today, with satellite imagery showing an impressive cloud-shield circulating around the low-pressure center across all of oregon. However, showers will continue to taper off, with the main jet stream energy focused well south of the region. The low-pressure center will weaken and move inland, into northern California, tonight. Partial clearing overnight may allow Willamette Valley temperatures to locally drop below freezing. There will still be a slight chance of a light shower with the snow level at or below 1000 feet. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 8 this morning, NNE 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:38pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:14am. Extended Outlook: A split-flow jet stream pattern is forecast this weekend through much of next week. The southern branch of the jet stream, and main moisture feed, will continue to be directed into California. A weak upper-level trough will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies, cool temperatures and at least a few showers over Oregon...mainly south. Snow levels will rise a little but remain below the Cascade passes. Willamette Valley temperatures should remain slightly below normal. Tomorrow (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 30/46 Sun (15 Feb): Chance of Showers and Cool. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 32/46 Mon (16 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 feet. 32/48 Tue (17 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/48 Wed (18 Feb): Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 33/50 Thu (19 Feb): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 33/51 Fri (20 Feb): Partly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers Late. 33/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 13 11:53:33 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 13 Feb 2009 13:53:33 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 13th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. .....Next scheduled update is not until Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 9am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, February 13th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A weakening cold front brought less than two-tenths of an inch of rain to the interior valleys of western Oregon last night and early this morning. Areas of very light rain and snow pushed east of the Cascades this morning. The bulk of the moisture from this latest weather system moved south of the region, into California. Cloudy skies and areas of light rain kept valley temperatures above freezing overnight with most minimums in the mid 30s. Late morning temperatures had warmed to near 40 degrees in the western valleys and locally into the mid 40s near Portland and along the coast. The air mass is still quite cold over Oregon. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at just 2100 and 1900 feet respectively early this morning. That put the snow level near 1000 feet this morning. It should only rise slightly this afternoon. ODOT road cameras showed mostly wet pavement over the coastal mountain passes. Slush was reported late this morning over Sunset Summit, on HWY 26 over the coast range. The Cascade and Siskiyou passes looked they they were improving, as the snow showers let up. Snowfall amounts in the mountains ranged from a trace in the northern Cascades to as much as 4 inches over the Siskiyous of southern Oregon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis put the low-pressure center about 100 miles off the northern California coast, with pressure gradients becoming more northerly across western Oregon. As the low-pressure center continues to drift southeastward, pressure gradients will slowly turn even more northerly across western Oregon this afternoon. Northerly transport winds are not conducive to good valley ventilation for stack burning, so it is not allowed today. Satellite imagery continued to show a significant cloud-shield circulating northward, around the low-pressure center off the northern California coast, into Oregon and most of Washington. Doppler radar indicated a general decrease in showers across Oregon, with the main jet stream energy focused well south of the region. The low-pressure center will continue to weaken and move inland, into northern California, tonight. Partial clearing overnight may allow Willamette Valley temperatures to locally drop below freezing. There will still be a slight chance of a light shower overnight with the snow level dropping back to near or below 1000 feet. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 62%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:38pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:14am. Extended Outlook: A split-flow jet stream pattern is forecast this weekend through much of next week. The southern branch of the jet stream, and main moisture feed, will continue to be directed into California. A weak upper-level trough will maintain partly to mostly cloudy skies, cool temperatures and at least a few showers over Oregon...mainly south. The best chance of showers will be Sunday through Tuesday with more of a break during the second half of the week. Another cool system is forecast to move into the region the following weekend. Snow levels will rise a little but remain below the Cascade passes. Willamette Valley temperatures should remain slightly below normal. Tomorrow (14 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of a Shower. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 30/46 Sun (15 Feb): Chance of Showers and Cool. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 32/46 Mon (16 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 feet. 32/48 Tue (17 Feb): Decreasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/48 Wed (18 Feb): Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 33/50 Thu (19 Feb): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 33/51 Fri (20 Feb): Partly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers Late. 33/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 18 09:04:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 18 Feb 2009 11:04:08 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 18th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Satellite imagery showed an impressive low-pressure system, an associated cloud-shield, centered several hundred miles off the northern California coastline this morning. Precipitation from that system should stay offshore today with an upper-level ridge continuing to build over Oregon and Washington. The freezing level over Salem rose from 4300 feet Tuesday afternoon to 5200 feet early this morning and should continue to slowly climb today. With the expection of valley low clouds and fog thsi morning, skies were generally fair over Washington and Oregon this morning. Clearing skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across most of the Willamette Valley overnight.McMinnville was one of the colder spots, dipping to just 28 degrees. Calm winds even helped the, normally warmer, Portland Airport drop briefly below the freezing mark this morning (31 degrees). The ODA surface analysis showed very weak offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon, and morning winds were mostly calm at mid-morning. Temperatures were generally in the low to mid 30s with some sunbreaks beginning to make it through the widespread valley fog. The fog should give way to at least partly sunny skies today with valley temperatures climbing mostly into the mid 50s (a little above normal). Surface winds will remain lightly offshore. Stack burning is not allowed today due to light northerly transport winds combined with mixing heights at or below 2000 feet. Offshore gradients are forecast to slowly increase tonight and Thursday, as the offshore low-pressure system drifts closer to the California coastline. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, N 2-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 3 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2000 feet. Ventilation index 10. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 56. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 38%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:45pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:06am. Extended Outlook: Middle and high clouds will likely increase Thursday and Friday, as the storm off the California coastline slowly moves eastward. However, it should remain mostly dry in the Willamette Valley, with some light rain possibly making it into southwestern Oregon by Friday. Surface winds will remain light offshore with mild afternoon temperatures. Ventilation conditions may deteriorate slightly, as the air aloft continues to warm. The sry conditions may hold through Saturday with a good chance of light rain moving into western Oregon by Sunday. Ventilation conditions are expected to improve early next week, with an increasing chance of rain and lowering snow levels. Tomorrow (19 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 31/56 Fri (20 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/57 Sat (21 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 34/57 Sun (22 Feb): Chance of Rain. 38/53 Mon (23 Feb): Rain Likely at Times. Snow Level Dropping to 3500 Feet. 40/52 Tue (24 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 38/50 Wed (25 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 1500 Feet. 36/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 19 09:01:43 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 19 Feb 2009 11:01:43 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 19th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 19th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Fair skies and light winds overnight allowed temperatures, once again, to drop near or below freezing across the Willamette Valley. Hillsboro dipped to 28 degrees, Salem dropped to 30 and Portland 31. An upper-level low pressure center continues to be anchored several hundred miles off the northern California coastline this morning. Satellite imagery showed an impressive cloud-shield circulating around it, with all of the precipitation staying well offshore. Middle and high clouds were spreading northward across Oregon and Washington. There were also areas of fog and low clouds this morning in the southern Willamette Valley and east of the Cascades. Counter-clockwise circulation around the offshore weather system is producing southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon and warming the air mass. The freezing level over Salem had climbed from 5200 feet yesterday morning to 7500 feet this morning. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights below about 1500 feet today. Transport winds are expected to remain fairly light and mostly from the northeast, so stack burning is not allowed. The ODA surface analysis showed a little stronger offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon, compared with yesterday morning. Easterly winds were were blowing around 5-15 mph along the coast at mid-morning with generally calm winds in the Willamette Valley. Mid-mornig temperatures were in the low to mid 30s in the Willamette Valley but had already warmed into the mid 40s along the coast at Newport and North Bend. Skies were mostly cloudy with some fog in the Eugene area. Like yesterday, the fog should clear later this morning, but there will still be considerable middle and high clouds filtering the late-winter sunshine. Willamette Valley temperatures should climb mostly into the mid and upper 50s this afternoon (most areas will be a degree or two warmer than yesterday). Surface winds will remain lightly offshore. Surface Winds: NNE 3-6 this morning, NE 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 6 this morning, NE 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 11. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 36%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:46pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:04am. Extended Outlook: There will continue to be considerable middle and high cloudiness filtering the sunshine across Oregon Friday and Saturday. The air mass will continue to be mild with temperatures running a couple of degrees above normal in most areas. As the storm off the California coastline slowly moves eastward, the chance of rain will increase significantly by Saturday night. An upper-level low pressure system will finally move close enough to the coastline by Sunday for a good chance of light rain across western Oregon. Temperatures will remain mild with increasing southwesterly flow aloft. A cold front is forecast to finally move across western Oregon Sunday night or Monday with a showery and cooler weather pattern setting up for much of next week. Snow levels will drop dramatically by the middle of next week, with considerable new snow possible over the Cascade passes. Colder air aloft should improve ventilation conditions across western Oregon. Tomorrow (20 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy and Mild in the Afternoon. 32/57 Sat (21 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy and Mild in the Afternoon. 34/57 Sun (22 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 38/53 Mon (23 Feb): Rain Likely at Times. Snow Level 5000 Feet...Dropping late. 40/50 Tue (24 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (25 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/49 Thu (26 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 2000 Feet. 36/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 20 09:02:55 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 20 Feb 2009 11:02:55 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 20th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 20th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Fair skies and light winds overnight, once again, allowed most Willamette Valley temperatures to drop below freezing. Hillsboro dipped to 26 degrees, Corvallis dropped to 28 degrees and Eugene fell to 29. Salem dropped to 30 and Portland 31. Minimums along the coast were in the mid 30s. Considerable middle and high clouds continued to cover much of Oregon. In addition, areas of fog and low clouds formed in sections of the valley this morning...mainly from Salem south to Eugene. A nearly stationary upper-level low pressure center continues to sit and spin, well off the northern California coastline, with a warming southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon and Washington. The freezing level has steadily risen over the past few days and jumped above 8000 feet yesterday. The upper-level ridge axis is slowly shifting eastward, and the freezing level over Salem slipped back to 7000 feet this morning. Satellite imagery showed bands of middle and high clouds circulating northward over Oregon this morning, but shower activity remained well offshore. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights at or below about 1500 feet again today. Transport winds were measured over Salem this morning as light southeasterly and are expected to become light north-northeasterly this afternoon. Stack burning is not allowed, again, today. The ODA surface analysis showed weaker offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon this morning, compared with yesterday. Easterly winds were only blowing up to about 10 mph along the coast. Winds in the Willamette Valley were generally calm. Like yesterday, there will be considerable middle and high clouds filtering the late-winter sunshine this afternoon. Willamette Valley temperatures should range from the low 50s in the south valley, where to fog will take time to break up, to the upper 50s in areas of the north valley. Coastal temperatures may locally reach the low 60s, like they did yesterday at Tillamook, where the high was 63 degrees. Surface winds will remain lightly offshore. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, NE 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 5 this morning, NNE 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 11. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 49%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:48pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:03am. Extended Outlook: Middle and high cloudiness should increase over Oregon Saturday, as an offshore weather system slowly moves towards the coastline. The flow aloft will turn more southerly with offshore surface gradients increasing. The chance of rain will increase significantly by Saturday night, especially over southwestern Oregon. Areas of rain will likely spread across western Oregon by Sunday with wouth-wouthweseterly flow aloft keeping snow levels above the Cascade passes. Valley temperatures will remain mild with southerly surface winds improving ventilation conditions. As the offshore upper-level low pressure system approaches the coastline Monday, colder air aloft should drop the snow level down to the Cascade passes with increasing valley rain and mountain snow. The upper-level trough is forecast to come onshore Tuesday, with continued showers and snow levels dropping to about 3000 feet. Showers will likely taper off some on Wednesday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. A cool weather system is forecast to dive into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, on Thursday, increasing the chance of showers again. Tomorrow (21 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Rain Late. 32/55 Sun (22 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 38/53 Mon (23 Feb): Rain Likely at Times. Snow Level 5000 Feet...Dropping late. 40/50 Tue (24 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (25 Feb): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/49 Thu (26 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Fri (27 Feb): Showers Likely. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 35/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 20 11:59:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 20 Feb 2009 13:59:31 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 20th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next update not scheduled until Tuesday, February 24th at 9am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, February 20th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Fair skies and light winds overnight, once again, allowed most Willamette Valley temperatures to drop below freezing. Hillsboro dipped to 25 degrees; Eugene fell to 27. Salem and Corvallis dropped to 28. Portland bottomed out at the freezing mark (32 degrees). Minimums along the coast were in the mid 30s. Areas of fog and low clouds formed in sections of the valley this morning...mainly from Salem south to Eugene. A nearly stationary upper-level low pressure center continues to sit and spin, well off the northern California coastline, with a mild southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon and Washington. The freezing level has steadily risen over the past few days and jumped above 8000 feet yesterday. The upper-level ridge axis is slowly shifting eastward, and the freezing level over Salem slipped back to 7000 feet this morning. Midday visible satellite imagery showed a few areas of low clouds and fog rapidly shrinking in the central and southern valley. Elsewhere across western Oregon, skies were mostly sunny. Bone-chilling low clouds and fog extended from eastern Washington, down the Columbia basin of northeastern Oregon, to near The Dalles. Temperatures under that fog and cloud-cover were near freezing. Elsewhere across central and eastern Oregon, areas of morning fog had given way to mostly sunny skies. Temperaures were already in the upper 40s in Redmond and La Grande. Infrared satellite imagery showed middle and high clouds circulating northward, mainly offshore, with shower activity well offshore. Warm air aloft will keep mixing heights at or below about 1500 feet again today. The ODA surface analysis showed weak northeaseterly pressure gradients across western Oregon at midday. Wind speeds were generally about 5 mph or less, except for easterly winds gusting to more than 30 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Midday temperatures had already warmed int the mid to upper 50s along much of the coastline. Willamette Valley readings were mostly in the mid to upper 40s. There were still pockets of low clouds, like in Corvallis, holding temperatures in the low 40s. Under mostly sunny skies this afternoon, Willamette Valley temperatures should climb well into the 50s. Many coastal areas will see the low 60s today. Light northeasterly surface winds will continue across western Oregon through the afternoon. Surface Winds: NE 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 11. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 49%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:48pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:03am. Extended Outlook: Clouds will increase over Oregon Saturday, as an offshore weather system slowly moves towards the coastline. The flow aloft will turn more southerly with offshore surface gradients increasing. Rain may move onshore as soon as Saturday afternoon, with rain likely spreading across western Oregon Saturday night and Sunday. South-southweseterly flow aloft will keep snow levels above the Cascade passes Sunday. Valley temperatures will remain mild with southerly surface winds improving ventilation conditions. As the upper-level low pressure system moves onshore late Monday, colder air aloft should drop the snow level down to the Cascade passes with increasing rain and mountain snow. Showers will continue Tuesday, before tapering off Wednesday, as the flow aloft becomes northwesterly. There is significant uncertainty in the forecast for late next Week. It is possible that a cool system could drop into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, on Thursday, or things could dry out Thursday and Friday. Computer models are more consistent in showing a very cool system dropping into the region next weekend, with increasing showers and very low snow levels. Tomorrow (21 Feb): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Chance of Rain Late. 32/55 Sun (22 Feb): Rain Likely. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet. 38/53 Mon (23 Feb): Rain Likely at Times. Snow Level 5000 Feet...Dropping late. 40/50 Tue (24 Feb): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 38/50 Wed (25 Feb): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/49 Thu (26 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 35/49 Fri (27 Feb): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 35/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Feb 24 09:02:59 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 24 Feb 2009 11:02:59 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, February 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, February 24th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A Pacific cold front moved across western Oregon Monday afternoon and was followed by a secondary cold front overnight. The combination of storms dropped from about one-half to one-and-a-quarter inches of rain across mot of western Oregon. It was a little drier over extreme southwestern Oregon, but heavier rain fell there over the weekend. The bottom line is that all of western Oregon fianlly got a good soaking rain, after a quite dry January and first half of February. In addition, a fairly intense low-pressure area moved to near the northern Washington coast early this morning...producing fairly strong southerly winds from the central Washington Coast south along the Oregon Coast. Hoquiam, Washington had a peak gust early this morning of 46 mph with gusts to near 50 mph along the extreme northern Oregon Coast, at Clapsop Spit. Garibaldi had a peak gust of 47 mph, and capre Mears (1421 feet near Tillamook) had a gust of 64 mph. Blustery winds and bursts of heavy rain swept across the Willamette Valley overnight. The Salem Airport had a peak gust of 46 mph. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed southerly pressure gradients beginning to relax a bit across western Washington and Oregon, with a weakening low-pressure center just off the northern Washington Coast. South winds were still gusting to 35 mph along the northern Oregon Coast, at Astoria, and to near 20 mph in the Willamette Valley. The rainy and windy conditions kept overnight temperatures above 40 degrees along the coast and across the Willamette Valley. Mid-morning readings were in the mid to upper 40s. Satellite imagery showed generally cloudy skies across Washington and most of western Oregon. There were some breaks in the clouds across central and eastern Oregon. Doppler radar continued to show a few showers moving across northwestern Oregon, in a strong southewesterly flow aloft. The air aloft cooler overnight with the snow level dropping to about 3500 feet early this morning. Snow was falling over the Cascade passes this morning with 4 inches of new snow at Government Camp, on Mt. Hood. The higher elevations on Mt. Hood picked up heavy snow overnight, with Timberline Lodge getting 15 inches of new snow. The flow aloft is forecast to turn more westerly this afternoon, which should enhance snow shower activity over the Cascades. Snow advisories are in effect there for up to 12 inches of new snow above 3500 feet by Wednesday morning. The coast and western valleys will continue to see scattered rain showers today and tonight with slowly decreasing winds. Valley highs will be in the low to mid 50s. Lows tonight should, once again, remain above 40 degrees. Surface Winds: S 10-20 G30 this morning, SW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 30 this morning, SW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 120. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 69%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:53pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:56am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to drop southward, from southern British Columbia, to just off the Washington Coast Wednesday. That will increase the precipitation and winds across the region with snow levels lowering to near 3000 feet by Wednesday night. Another foot of snow could fall in the Cascades late Wednesday into Thursday, as snow levels drop to 1000 feet or lower. The coastal range passes may also see sticking snow Thursday, as the very cold upper-level low-pressure system swings onshore. Some wet snow is also possible in the higher hills around the Willamette Valley on Thursday. The upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to move east of the Cascades Thursday night with showers tapering off and skies clearing. That will allow for much colder overnight temperatures. Valley minimums will likely drop to near or below freezing. A transitory ridge of high pressure may bring a mostly dry day Friday, with a touch of sunshine. The next weather system is forecast to develop further offshore, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft briefly lifting snow levels to near or above the Cascade passes Saturday afternoon. That system is forecast to move onshore with rain and blustery winds Saturday night and Sunday, with snow returning to the mountains. Showers will continue Monday and Tuesday with low snow levels. Tomorrow (25 Feb): Showers Increasing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 42/52 Thu (26 Feb): Showers. Snow Level 1000 Feet or Lower. 37/47 Fri (27 Feb): Partly Sunny and Cool. Slight Chance of a Shower. 31/52 Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 38/53 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 39/50 Tue (03 Mar): Showers. Snow Level near 2000 Feet. 37/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Feb 25 08:55:00 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 25 Feb 2009 10:55:00 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, February 25th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, February 25th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A strong and moist west-southwesterly flow aloft continued the shower activity across Washington and Oregon overnight. With the showery nature of the precipitation, there was a wide variety of rainfall amounts over the past 24 hours. Some coastal and inland valley locations, such as Newport and McMinnville, received only around one-tenth of an inch, while other areas, like North Bend and Eugene, picked over over one inch of rain. Cloudy and rainy conditions kept overnight temperatures in the 40s across the lower elevations of western Oregon. Snow levels remained around 4000 feet, in the Cascades overnight, with about an inch of new snow on the passes this morning. Significant amounts of snow have fallen in the higher elevations on Mt. Hood. Timberline lodge reported 12 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours and 52 inches of new snow in the past 72 hours. That is a welcome site, for the high country, after drier than normal conditions since early January. The moist west-southwesterly flow off the Pacific Ocean will strengthen today, as a cold upper-level low pressure area drops southward, from southern British Columbia, to off the northern Washington Coast. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies across virtually all of Washington and Oregon at mid-morning. Doppler radar showed bands of showers rotating inland and across the entire region. Showers were even making it east of the Cascades, especially over higher terrain. With little or no sunbreaks today, and progressively cooler air aloft moving over the region, temperatures will only warm a couple of degrees from their current levels. Valley highs should top out near 50 degrees, down a few degrees from yesterday, with frequent showers. Ventilation conditions will be good today, but straw stacks may loaclly be too wet for burning. The Cascades will see around 5-10 inches of new snow, above 3500 feet, where Winter Weather Advisories are in effect. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 this morning, SW 10-15 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3900 feet. Ventilation index 117. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 66%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:55pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:55am. Extended Outlook: A cold upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to continue to slowly sag southward, along the Washington Coast, tonight. That will increase the showers and southwesterly winds across western Oregon with snow levels lowering to at or below 1000 feet by Thursday morning. Another 5-10 inches of snow could fall in the Cascades overnight with 2-4 inches of snow possible over the coastal mountain passes. As the very cold upper-level low-pressure system swings onshore Thursday, wet snow accumulations are also possible in the higher hills around the Willamette Valley. Showers could mix with or turn to snow even down to the Willamette Valley Floors. The best chance for sticking snow on the valley floors appears to be early Thursday. Significant accumulations are not expected below 500 feet, but wet snow could locally cover the ground under heavier showers. High temperatures should still climb into the mid 40s Thursday afternoon, with brisk southwesterly winds. The mountains will likely see an additional 2-7 inches of snow. The upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to move east of the Cascades Thursday night with showers tapering off and skies clearing. That will allow for much colder overnight temperatures. Valley minimums will likely drop to near or below freezing. A transitory ridge of high pressure may bring a mostly dry, but quite cool, day Friday, with a touch of sunshine. The next weather system is forecast to develop further offshore, with increasing southwesterly flow aloft briefly lifting snow levels to near the Cascade passes Saturday afternoon. That system is forecast to move onshore with rain and blustery winds Saturday night and Sunday. Snow levels should drop back below the Cascade passes Sunday. Showers will continue Monday and Tuesday with snow in the mountains. Another cool weather system is forecast to drop into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, on Wednesday. Tomorrow (26 Feb): Showers. Snow Level near 500 Feet. 37/44 Fri (27 Feb): Partly Sunny and Cool. Slight Chance of a Shower. 30/50 Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 31/49 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 39/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level Near 3000 Feet. 37/50 Tue (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 36/52 Wed (04 Mar): Rain Increasing. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 36/52 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 26 09:26:37 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 09:26:37 -0800 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Ag Weather Forecast Message-ID: Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, February 26th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level low-pressure system slowly sagged southward, along the Washington Coast, last night. It circulated cold Arctic air, from southern British Columbia, over the warmer ocean waters and then inland across Washington and Oregon. That increased the shower activity with progressively lowering snow levels. By early this morning, wet snow showers were falling down to sea level along the Oregon coast and down to the floor of the Willamette Valley. Doppler radar showed the main area of snow showers extending from just south of Portland to near Corvallis and stretching from the coast to the creast of the Cascades. Roadways were locally covered in slush along the I5 corridor with up to a couple of inches of snow reported on the eastern side of the valley near Stayton. Several inches of snow fell over the coastal and Cascade passes with more than a foot of new snow reported at the ski areas on Mt. Hood. More than 4 feet of snow have fallen in the past 72 hours at Timberline Lodge. Winter Weather Advisories are in effect until noon today for northern and central Willamette Valley, north of Albany, for snow showers with local minor accumulations of wet snow. More significant snow accumulations are still possible in the coastal and Cascade passes. As the upper-level low-pressure system moves east of the Cascades this afternoon, showers will should rapidly taper off across western Oregon with the snow level rising to about 1500 feet. Willamette Valley temperatures should recover into the mid 40s this afternoon, after hovering near the freezing mark through mid-morning. The ODA surface analysis showed an Arcitc frontal boundary extending from just north of Seattle to near Spokane, Washington. North of that line, temperatures were well below freezing with cold northerly winds. The leading edge of the cold front that brought the low-elevation snow to Oregon was pushing into Idaho at mid-mornig. Doppler radar showed to showers beginning to taper off across northwestern Oregon. Winds were mostly southwesterly in the Willamette Valley between 5 and 15 mph. Showers had ended along the coast, at Newport, where northwesterly winds were gusting to near 30 mph. That is an indication that drier conditions will be moving into the interior valleys later this morning. Surface Winds: WSW 5-15 G20 this morning, WSW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 20 this morning, W 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to move into Idaho tonight with showers ending and skies clearing across Oregon. That will allow for much colder overnight temperatures. Valley minimums will likely drop into the mid to upper 20s most areas. Please be aware that wet road surfaces may freeze and create locally slick driving conditions through early Friday. There may also be areas of morning fog. A transitory ridge of high pressure will likely allow for at least partly sunny skies Friday, but temperatures will be well below normal. Mostly clear skies Friday evening will lead to areas of fog forming Friday night. Valley temperatures should, once again, drop to near or below freezing by Saturday morning. The next weather system will increase clouds over the region Saturday with a chance of rain by the afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should lift the snow level to near or slighty above the Cascade passes. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday, as the storm moves onshore. Snow levels will hover around the Cascade passes Sunday, before dropping to near 3000 feet Sunday night. An upper-level trough will slowly move onshore Monday and Tuesday with an ongoing threat of showers. That trough should not be nearly as cold as the one that came through the region this morning, so snow levels should stay in the 3-4000 foot range. Valley temperature will be near normal. A stronger and colder system is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (27 Feb): Very Cold Start. Partly Sunny and Cool Afternoon. 25/48 Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 31/49 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet...Dropping to 3000 Feet Late. 39/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/51 Tue (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 37/52 Wed (04 Mar): Rain Increasing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/51 Thu (05 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 feet. 35/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Feb 26 12:04:26 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Feb 2009 14:04:26 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, February 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Thursday, February 26th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level low-pressure system slowly sagged southward, along the Washington Coast, last night. It circulated cold Arctic air, from southern British Columbia, over the warmer ocean waters and then inland across Washington and Oregon. That increased the shower activity with progressively lowering snow levels. By early this morning, wet snow showers were falling down to sea level along the Oregon coast and down to the floor of the Willamette Valley. Doppler radar showed the main area of morning snow showers extended from just south of Portland to near Corvallis and stretched from the coast to the creast of the Cascades. Roadways were locally covered in slush along the I5 corridor early this morning with some of the higher elevations on both sides of the valley locally picking up a few inches of wet snow. Up to about 6 inches of snow fell over the coastal passes with up to a foot over the Cascade passes. The ski areas on Mt. Hood have received almost 2 feet of new snow in the past 24 hours. Timberline Lodge has received more than 4 feet of snow in the past 72 hours. The upper-level low-pressure system moved east of the Cascades late this morning, with showers rapidly decreasing across the lower elevations of western Oregon. Snow showers were continuing in the Cascades, where ODOT reports showed rough driving conditions as far south as Willamette Pass. The storm center was over extreme southeastern Washington at midday. Doppler radar showed a lessening of the snow shower activity over the Cascades and mountains of northeastern Oregon. Showers all but ended west of the Cascade foothills with some sunbreaks appearing. Daytime heating has lifted to snow level to between 1000 and 1500 feet. Willamette Valley temperatures had warmed to near 40 degrees, by late this morning, with sections of the coast and southwestern Oregon in the mid 40s. Willamette Valley temperatures should climb into the mid 40s this afternoon, with gradually clearing skies. The late-morning ODA surface analysis continued to show an Arcitc frontal boundary extending from just south of Bellingham to just north of Spokane, Washington. North of that line, temperatures were well below freezing with cold northerly winds. The leading edge of the cold front that brought the low-elevation snow to Oregon earlier this morning had pushed into Idaho by midday. Winds were west-southwesterly, at 5-15 mph, in the Willamette Valley with partly sunny skies melting the morning slush. Skies were clearing along with coast with drying westerly surface winds gusting to near 20 mph. Surface Winds: WSW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:53am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level low-pressure system is forecast to move into Idaho tonight with showers ending and skies clearing across Oregon. That will allow for much colder overnight temperatures. Valley minimums will likely drop into the mid to upper 20s most areas. Please be aware that wet road surfaces may freeze and create locally slick driving conditions through early Friday. There may also be areas of morning fog. A transitory ridge of high pressure will likely allow for at least partly sunny skies Friday, but temperatures will be well below normal. Mostly clear skies Friday evening will lead to areas of fog forming Friday night. Valley temperatures should, once again, drop to near or below freezing by Saturday morning. The next weather system will increase clouds over the region Saturday with a chance of rain by the afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should lift the snow level to near or slighty above the Cascade passes. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday, as the storm moves onshore. Snow levels will hover around the Cascade passes Sunday, before dropping to near 3000 feet Sunday night. An upper-level trough will slowly move onshore Monday and Tuesday with an ongoing threat of showers. That trough should not be nearly as cold as the one that came through the region this morning, so snow levels should stay in the 3-4000 foot range. Valley temperature will be near normal. A stronger and colder system is forecast to come onshore late Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (27 Feb): Very Cold Start. Partly Sunny and Cool Afternoon. 25/48 Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 31/49 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet...Dropping to 3000 Feet Late. 39/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/51 Tue (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 37/52 Wed (04 Mar): Rain Increasing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/51 Thu (05 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 feet. 35/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 27 09:01:38 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 11:01:38 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 27th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, February 27th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The cold upper-level low-pressure system that moved across Oregon Thursday rapidly pushed east of the region overnight...allowing for clearing skies. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped well below freezing overnight, with areas of dense fog making for locally slick travel conditions this morning. McMinnville dipped down to just 26 degrees this morning, and it was only 27 in Hillsboro. Mid-morning temperatures were generally in the low 30s with widespread fog and low clouds. A transitory ridge of high pressure will likely allow for at least partly sunny skies later today, but temperatures will be well below normal. Valley highs will only raech the mid to upper 40s. Normal valley highs, for late February, would be the low to mid 50s. The ODA surface analysis showed weak offshore pressure gradients. Light north-northeasterly winds in the valley this morning may become light southeasterly this afternoon. The freezing level over Salem was just 1100 feet this morning and will slowly rise to about 3000 feet this afternoon. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, ESE 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: ESE 5 this morning, S 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 15. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 48. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:51am. Extended Outlook: Mostly clear skies this evening will lead to areas of fog forming overnight. Valley temperatures should, once again, drop to near or below freezing by Saturday morning. The next weather system will increase clouds over the region Saturday with a chance of rain by the afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should lift the snow level to near or slighty above the Cascade passes. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday, as the storm moves onshore. Snow levels will hover around the Cascade passes Sunday, before dropping to near 3000 feet Sunday night. An upper-level trough will slowly move onshore Monday and Tuesday with an ongoing threat of showers. Snow levels should stay in the 3-4000 foot range. Valley temperature will be near normal. A stronger and colder system is forecast to bring more rain and mountain snow late Wednesday and Thursday with showers continuing into Friday. Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 31/49 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet...Dropping to 3000 Feet Late. 39/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/51 Tue (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 37/52 Wed (04 Mar): Rain Increasing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/51 Thu (05 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 feet. 35/49 Fri (06 Mar): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 35/40 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 27 09:09:24 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 11:09:24 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 27th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected Temperatures for Next Friday (March 6th) in Extended Forecast... Issued: Friday, February 27th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The cold upper-level low-pressure system that moved across Oregon Thursday rapidly pushed east of the region overnight...allowing for clearing skies. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped well below freezing overnight, with areas of dense fog making for locally slick travel conditions this morning. McMinnville dipped down to just 26 degrees this morning, and it was only 27 in Hillsboro. Mid-morning temperatures were generally in the low 30s with widespread fog and low clouds. A transitory ridge of high pressure will likely allow for at least partly sunny skies later today, but temperatures will be well below normal. Valley highs will only raech the mid to upper 40s. Normal valley highs, for late February, would be the low to mid 50s. The ODA surface analysis showed weak offshore pressure gradients. Light north-northeasterly winds in the valley this morning may become light southeasterly this afternoon. The freezing level over Salem was just 1100 feet this morning and will slowly rise to about 3000 feet this afternoon. Surface Winds: NE 0-5 this morning, ESE 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: ESE 5 this morning, S 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 15. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 48. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:51am. Extended Outlook: Mostly clear skies this evening will lead to areas of fog forming overnight. Valley temperatures should, once again, drop to near or below freezing by Saturday morning. The next weather system will increase clouds over the region Saturday with a chance of rain by the afternoon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should lift the snow level to near or slighty above the Cascade passes. Rain is likely Saturday night and Sunday, as the storm moves onshore. Snow levels will hover around the Cascade passes Sunday, before dropping to near 3000 feet Sunday night. An upper-level trough will slowly move onshore Monday and Tuesday with an ongoing threat of showers. Snow levels should stay in the 3-4000 foot range. Valley temperature will be near normal. A stronger and colder system is forecast to bring more rain and mountain snow late Wednesday and Thursday with showers continuing into Friday. Sat (28 Feb): Increasing Clouds. Chance of PM Rain. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 31/49 Sun (01 Mar): Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet...Dropping to 3000 Feet Late. 39/52 Mon (02 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/51 Tue (03 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 37/52 Wed (04 Mar): Rain Increasing. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/51 Thu (05 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 feet. 35/49 Fri (06 Mar): Showers. Mountain Snow. Snow Level Near 2000 Feet. 33/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Feb 27 11:53:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 27 Feb 2009 13:53:04 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, February 27th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, February 27th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: The cold upper-level low-pressure system that moved across Oregon Thursday rapidly pushed east of the region overnight...allowing for clearing skies. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped well below freezing overnight, with areas of dense fog making for locally slick travel conditions this morning. McMinnville dipped down to just 26 degrees this morning, and it was only 27 in Hillsboro and 29 in Salem. Late-morning visible satellite imagery continued to show extensive low clouds covering much of western Oregon. There were some sunbreaks along the coast and in the northern Willamette Valley, north of Salem. Midday temperatures ranged from the cloudy mid 30s in Salem to the mid 40s along the coast and in the sunny Portland area. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed weak offshore (northeasterly) pressure gradients. Winds were light north-northeasterly in the valley and easterly, gusting to 30 mph, at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. The drier easterly flow helped to quickly clear the low clouds from the extreme north valley this morning. A transitory ridge of high pressure aloft and increasing offshore surface winds, should help to slowly clear the low clouds from the Willamette Valley this afternoon. With a cold air mass still over the region (the morning freezing level was measured at just 1100 feet over Salem), and the persistent morning low clouds, high temperatures will struggle to hit the mid 40s in the central and south valley this afternoon, even with some sunbreaks. With more sunshine, highs in the north valley may approach 50. Surface Winds: NE 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 15. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:51am. Extended Outlook: Mostly clear skies this evening will lead to areas of fog forming overnight, although increasing offshore flow should keep fog from forming across most of the north valley. Valley temperatures should drop to below freezing in most areas by Saturday morning. The next weather system will increase clouds over the region Saturday, but dry offshore low-level flow will likely limit precipitation to just a few sprinkles. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft should lift the snow levels slightly above the Cascade passes. The chance of rain will increase Saturday night, with rain likely by Sunday afternoon. Strengthening southwesterly flow aloft should keep snow levels in the 5-6000 foot range, before they drop below pass levels Sunday night. Willamette Valley temperatures may get rather balmy Sunday afternoon, ahead of the approaching storm system. A slow-moving cold front is forecast to sweep rain and Mountain snow across Oregon Monday, with a cool upper-level trough continuing showers on Tuesday. Showers should decrease Wednesday, with a stronger and colder system dropping into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, Wednesday night. A cold upper-level trough will bring showers, with very low snow levels, Thursday and Friday. Sat (28 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Sprinkles. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 30/50 Sun (01 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5-6000 Feet...Dropping late. 39/57 Mon (02 Mar): Rain at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/52 Tue (03 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level near 3-4000 Feet. 38/52 Wed (04 Mar): Chance of Showers Early. Rain Late. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 36/51 Thu (05 Mar): Rain & Windy...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 1500 feet. 38/49 Fri (06 Mar): Showers and Cool. Snow Level 500-1500 Feet. 33/47 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us