From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 7 09:01:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:01:50 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: A very moist warm front was bringing heavy rain to western Washington and extreme northwestern Oregon this morning, along with strong southerly winds. Rain and wind will continue to increase across western Oregon today, as the frontal boundary sags southward. High wind warnings have been issued for the northern and central coast, and the northern coast range, for southerly gusts between 60 and 70 mph. Southerly winds in the Willamette Valley will gust to between 30 and 40 mph with increasing rain. The freezing levels over Oregon are near 10,000 feet. Flood watches have been issued western Oregon due to melting snow and increasing rain. The latest flood advisories can be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: S 15-25 G 35 this morning, S 15-25 G 35 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 35 this morning, SSW 40 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: -1:20pm; sunrise tomorrow: : 0am. Extended Outlook: A strong cold front will move onshore early Thursday morning with locally heavy rain and strong winds continuing. South winds could gust to around 60 mph along the coastal headlands and beaches, and to near 70 mph in the northern coastal range, until the cold front pushes east. Southerly winds will continue to gust to near 40 mph in the Willamette Valley through early Thursday. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to near 3000 feet by Thursday evening with the precipitation becoming more showery and focused mainly on the western slopes of the coast range and Cascades. Showers will taper off Thursday night, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. Cooler overnight temperatures and moist low-level air will likely lead to areas of fog in the western valleys by Friday morning. Freezing levels will jump back above the Cascade passes, but dry weather should help river levels drop and ease flooding concerns. The upper-level ridge will initially be rather flat. Western flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late in the day. The upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. The ridge is forecast to move over the region early next week with dry weather expected and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will become stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog Monday through Wednesday. Thu (08 Jan): Rain and Windy...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 48/50 Fri (09 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 34/46 Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 32/46 Sun (11 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partial Clearing. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 7 09:12:01 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2009 11:12:01 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected Salem sunrise and sunset times... Issued: Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: A very moist warm front was bringing heavy rain to western Washington and extreme northwestern Oregon this morning, along with strong southerly winds. Rain and wind will continue to increase across western Oregon today, as the frontal boundary sags southward. High wind warnings have been issued for the northern and central coast, and the northern coast range, for southerly gusts between 60 and 70 mph. Southerly winds in the Willamette Valley will gust to between 30 and 40 mph with increasing rain. The freezing levels over Oregon are near 10,000 feet. Flood watches have been issued western Oregon due to melting snow and increasing rain. The latest flood advisories can be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: S 15-25 G 35 this morning, S 15-25 G 35 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 35 this morning, SSW 40 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:48 pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49 am. Extended Outlook: A strong cold front will move onshore early Thursday morning with locally heavy rain and strong winds continuing. South winds could gust to around 60 mph along the coastal headlands and beaches, and to near 70 mph in the northern coastal range, until the cold front pushes east. Southerly winds will continue to gust to near 40 mph in the Willamette Valley through early Thursday. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to near 3000 feet by Thursday evening with the precipitation becoming more showery and focused mainly on the western slopes of the coast range and Cascades. Showers will taper off Thursday night, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. Cooler overnight temperatures and moist low-level air will likely lead to areas of fog in the western valleys by Friday morning. Freezing levels will jump back above the Cascade passes, but dry weather should help river levels drop and ease flooding concerns. The upper-level ridge will initially be rather flat. Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late in the day. The upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. The ridge is forecast to move over the region early next week with dry weather expected and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will become stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog Monday through Wednesday. Thu (08 Jan): Rain and Windy...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 48/50 Fri (09 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 34/46 Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 32/46 Sun (11 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partial Clearing. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 7 12:00:54 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 07 Jan 2009 14:00:54 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Wednesday, January 7th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: A very moist frontal system brought heavy rain to western Washington and extreme northwestern Oregon last night through this morning. 24-hour rainfall amounts from 1-3 inches were common across western Washington. There were sections of the extreme northern Oregon coastal range that have received just over two an one-half inches of rain in the past 24 hours. Along the coast, Astoria has picked up just over two inches of rain in the past 24 hours. Rainfall amounts fall off quickly to the south, with Tillamook only reporting around one-half inch of rain in the past 24 hours. Rain has been even lighter in the Willamette Valley, with 24-hour amounts generally less than one-quarter of an inch. Strong southerly winds have been gusting to near 40 mph all day from the Oregon Coast to the Willamette Valley with temperatures staying in the low to mid 50s. Rain and wind will continue to increase across western Oregon this afternoon, as the frontal boundary sags southward. High wind warnings have been issued for later this afternoon and tonight along the the northern and central coast, and for the northern coast range. Southerly winds will increase with gusts between 60 and 70 mph possible. Southerly winds in the Willamette Valley will continue to gust to near 40 mph with increasing rain. Additional rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches are possible along the northern and central coast, with even greater amounts possible in the coastal range. The Willamette Valley could receive 1-2 inches of rain by Thursday evening. The freezing levels over Oregon are near 10,000 feet. Numerous flood watches and warnings have been issued for western Oregon due to melting snow and increasing rain. The latest flood advisories can be viewed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ Surface Winds: S 15-25 G 35 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 40 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 88. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 89%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:48pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: A strong cold front will move onshore early Thursday morning with locally heavy rain and strong winds continuing. South winds could gust to around 60 mph along the coastal headlands and beaches, and to near 70 mph in the northern coastal range, until the cold front pushes east. Southerly winds will continue to gust to near 40 mph in the Willamette Valley through early Thursday. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to near 3000 feet by Thursday evening with the precipitation becoming more showery and focused mainly on the western slopes of the coast range and Cascades. Showers will taper off Thursday night, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. Cooler overnight temperatures and moist low-level air will likely lead to areas of fog in the western valleys by Friday morning. Freezing levels will jump back above the Cascade passes, but dry weather should help river levels drop and ease flooding concerns. The upper-level ridge will initially be rather flat. Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late in the day. The upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. The ridge is forecast to move over the region early next week with dry weather expected and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will become stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog Monday through Wednesday. Thu (08 Jan): Rain and Windy...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 48/50 Fri (09 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 34/46 Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 32/46 Sun (11 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partial Clearing. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 8 08:59:27 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 08 Jan 2009 10:59:27 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, January 8th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: The strong Pacific storm that has brought heavy rain and strong winds to western Washington and northwestern Oregon, over the past two days, finally pushed east of the region this morning. The cold front stretched from eastern Washington through eastern oregon at mid-morning and was accompanied by areas of rain and brisk westerly and southwesterly winds gusting to around 40 mph. Steady rain had turned showery west of the Cascades with some glimpses of sunshine. Brisk southerly winds held temperatures in the low 50s across western Oregon overnight, with cooler west-southwesterly winds ushering cooler air onshore this morning. Most areas west of the Cascades recorded their high temperatures for today shortly after midnight. Mid-morning temperatures had cooled into the upper 40s along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will likely hold steady or slowly fall through this afternoon with continued shower activity. The cold front had pushed east of Salem by the time the morning sounding was taken. It showed considerable cooling aloft, with the upper level winds shifting from southwesterly to westerly. The freezing level over Salem had dropped from 8000 feet Wednesday afternoon to only 4600 feet early this morning. Heavy rain had turned to snow over the northern and central Cascade passes by mid-morning. ODOT cameras showed packed snow at Government Camp, Santiam Pass and Willamette Pass with snow continuing to accumulate. The lowering snow levels and decreasing rain will help to ease the flooding west of the Cascades, which has been most significant across western Washington, and to a lesser degree in extreme northwestern Oregon, where numerous flood warnings remain in effect. Many of the rivers and streams in this region crested Wednesday night or will crest this morning. Near-record flooding is occuring this morning near Chehalis, Washington, where a 20-mile stretch of Interstate 5 is closed due to high water. Lees Camp, on highway 6 in the northern Oregonm coastal range, has received 4.8 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and 6.7 inches of rain in the past 48 hours. The Astoria airport has received 4.01 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and nearly 5 inches in the past 48 hours. Rainfall have also been very impressive across western Washington. 3-7+ inches of rain have falled in the past 48 hours from Kelso (just over 3.5 inches), to Olympia (more than 6 inches), to Shelton (more than 7 inches). In contrast, rainfall amounts taper off quickly, as you move south and east into the Willamette Valley, where 48-hour rainfall has been generally from one-half to one inch. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to near 2500 feet by this evening with the showers decreasing and becoming mainly focused on the western slopes of the coast range and Cascades. 3-6 inches of snow is possible over the Cascade passes, with the greatest amounts in the north. Showers will taper off tonight, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. Partial clearing and colder air aloft will allow valley temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s by Friday morning with areas of fog. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 this morning, W 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 20 this morning, W 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 86%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:49pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: After areas of morning valley fog, some sunbreaks are likely Friday. Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late in the day. The upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. The ridge is forecast to move over the region early next week with dry weather expected and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will become stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog much of next week. Tomorrow (09 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 34/46 Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 32/46 Sun (11 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Thu (15 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 8 12:01:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 08 Jan 2009 14:01:10 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Thursday, January 8th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: Many rivers in western Washington are flooding today, due to recent heavy rain and melting snow. Some northwest Oregon rivers also well above flood stage, especially the Wilson, Trask and Nehalem rivers, near Tillamook. Most rivers have crested and should drop to near or below flood stage by Friday night. Numerous flood warnings are still in effect across the region. The latest flood warnings can be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The latest river levels and forecasts are at: http://ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr The strong Pacific storm that brought heavy rain and strong winds to western Washington and northwestern Oregon, over the past two days, finally pushed east of the region this morning. The cold front was pushing into Idaho at midday. Morning rains had tapered off across eastern Oregon, but it was still windy with westerly gusts of 25-40 mph common. Steady rain turned showery this morning west of the Cascades with some sunbreaks. Brisk southerly winds held temperatures up in the low 50s across western Oregon overnight, with cooler west-southwesterly winds ushering cooler air onshore this morning. Most areas west of the Cascades recorded their high temperatures for today shortly after midnight. Midday temperatures were mostly in the upper 40s. Temperatures will likely hold steady for the next few hours and then fall off quickly this evening, as skies begni to clear. The cold front had pushed east of Salem by the time the morning sounding was taken. It showed considerable cooling aloft, with the upper level winds shifting from southwesterly to westerly. The freezing level over Salem had dropped from 8000 feet Wednesday afternoon to only 4600 feet early this morning. Heavy rain had turned to snow over the northern and central Cascade passes by mid-morning. ODOT cameras showed packed snow at Government Camp and Santiam Pass and new roadside snow along Willamette Pass. Pass temperatures were near 30 degrees at midday with snow showers. The lowering snow levels and decreasing rain will help to ease the flooding west of the Cascades, which has been most significant across western Washington, and to a lesser degree in extreme northwestern Oregon. Near-record flooding is occuring near Chehalis, Washington, where Interstate 5 is closed due to high water. Hwy 101 is also closed from mile post 64 to 65 near Tillamook due to high water. The latest Oregon road conditions are at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCmap.asp?curRegion=0&mainNav=RoadConditions Lees Camp, on highway 6 in the northern Oregonm coastal range, has received 4.8 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and 6.7 inches of rain in the past 48 hours. The Astoria airport has received 4.01 inches of rain in the past 24 hours and nearly 5 inches in the past 48 hours. Rainfall have also been very impressive across western Washington. 3-7+ inches of rain have falled in the past 48 hours from Kelso (just over 3.5 inches), to Olympia (more than 6 inches), to Shelton (more than 7 inches). In contrast, rainfall amounts taper off quickly, as you move south and east into the Willamette Valley, where 48-hour rainfall has been generally from one-half to one inch. Cooler air aloft will drop the snow level to near 2500 feet by this evening with the showers decreasing and becoming mainly focused on the western slopes of the coast range and Cascades. 3-6 inches of snow is possible over the Cascade passes, with the greatest amounts in the north. Showers will taper off tonight, as an upper-level ridge of high pressure begins building over the region. Partial clearing and colder air aloft will allow valley temperatures to fall into the low to mid 30s by Friday morning with areas of fog. Surface Winds: W 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 51. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 75%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:49pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: After areas of morning valley fog, some sunbreaks are likely Friday. Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late in the day. The upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. The ridge is forecast to move over the region early next week with dry weather expected and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will become stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog much of next week. Tomorrow (09 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Sunny. 34/46 Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 32/46 Sun (11 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 33/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Thu (15 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 9 08:59:44 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 09 Jan 2009 10:59:44 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, January 9th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Many rivers in western Washington are still flooding today, due to recent heavy rain and melting snow. Most rivers in northwest Oregon have crested and are now below flood stage. However, flood warmings remain in effect for the Luckiamute and Nehamlem Rivers, which were still above flood stage this morning. The Luckiamute River, near Suver, is forecast to drop below flood stage this morning, with some low lying and agricultural flooding expected in Benton and Polk Counties. The Nehalem River, near Foss, is expected to stay above flood stage until tonight, with some minor flooding continuing in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. The latest flood warnings can be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The latest river levels and forecasts are at: http://ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr The strong Pacific storm that brought heavy rain and strong winds to western Washington and northwestern Oregon, Tuesday and Wednesday, pushed east of the region yesterday with showers tapering off overnight. Lowering snow levels and drier conditions have helped ease the flooding across the region. Significant flooding is still occuring near Chehalis, Washington, where northbound Interstate 5 remained closed this morning due to high water. The latest Oregon road conditions are at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCmap.asp?curRegion=0&mainNav=RoadConditions Cooler air aloft dropped the freezing level to just 2700 feet over Salem this morning. Partial clearing overnight helped Willamette Valley temperatures drop to near 30 degrees with areas of fog forming...mainly in the central and south valley. Eugene fell to an icy 29 degrees this morning with fog reducing visibilities to less than one-quarter of a mile. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over western Oregon with weak pressure gradients and very light winds. Warming aloft today will trap cool and moist air near the surface, so fog will have a tough time breaking up in portions of the central and south valley. Afternoon highs today will range from near 40, in foggy areas, to the mid 40s where the sun is able to make an appearance. Ventilation conditions will be poor, dur to increasing low-level temperature inversions and light transport winds. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, Var 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 4 this morning, SE 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1000 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 43. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 73%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:50pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some light rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late by in the day...continuing into Sunday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify, just off the coastline, Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out by Sunday night. The ridge is forecast to move over the region next week with dry weather and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will continue to be stagnant. Some easterly outflow from the Columbia Gorge will help to clear skies in the north valley, but the south valley may have fairly persistent fog much of next week. Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 30/45 Sun (11 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 35/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Thu (15 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Fri (16 Jan): Areas of AM Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 9 12:13:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 09 Jan 2009 14:13:31 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update 9 a.m. Wednesday, January 14th, 2009... NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, January 9th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Many rivers in western Washington are still flooding today, due to recent heavy rain and melting snow. Most rivers in northwest Oregon have crested and are now below flood stage. However, flood warmings remain in effect for the Nehalem River, which was still above flood stage late this morning. It crested at 10 am today and is forecast to slowly fall to flood stage by around 7 pm tonight. Some minor flooding will continue in Clatsop and Tillamook Counties. Flood warnings have been dropped for the Luckiamute River, near Suver, which was slightly below flood stage late this morning. The latest flood warnings can be accessed at: http://www.wrh.noaa.gov/pqr/ The latest river levels and forecasts are at: http://ahps2.wrh.noaa.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=pqr The strong Pacific storm that brought heavy rain and strong winds to western Washington and northwestern Oregon, Tuesday and Wednesday, pushed east of the region yesterday with showers tapering off overnight. Lowering snow levels and drier conditions have helped ease the flooding across the region. Significant flooding is still occuring near Chehalis, Washington, where northbound Interstate 5 remained closed due to high water. The latest Oregon road conditions are at: http://167.131.0.179/Pages/RCmap.asp?curRegion=0&mainNav=RoadConditions Cooler air aloft dropped the freezing level to just 2700 feet over Salem this morning. Partial clearing overnight helped Willamette Valley temperatures drop to near 30 degrees with areas of fog forming...mainly in the central and south valley. Eugene fell to an icy 29 degrees this morning with fog reducing visibilities at times to less than one-quarter of a mile. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over western Oregon with weak pressure gradients and very light winds. Warming aloft today will trap cool and moist air near the surface, so fog and low clouds will have a tough time breaking up in portions of the Willamette Valley. McMinnville and Hillsboro still had fog at midday with temperatures in the mid 30s. Some sunshine had warmed temperatures into the low 40s in Portland and Salem. Low clouds were holding the temperature in Eugene in the middle 30s. Afternoon highs today will range from near 40, in cloudy/foggy areas, to the mid 40s where the sun is able to break out. Ventilation conditions will be poor, due to increasing low-level temperature inversions and light transport winds. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SE 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1000 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:50pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:49am. Extended Outlook: Westerly flow aloft will allow another Pacific storm to slide into western Washington Saturday. Some light rain could make it south into northwestern Oregon late by in the day...continuing into Sunday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to amplify, just off the coastline, Sunday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out by Sunday night. The ridge is forecast to move over the region next week with dry weather and freezing levels rising to more than 10,000 feet. Ventilation conditions will continue to be stagnant. Easterly outflow will increase, from the Columbia Gorge, by Wednesday, which will help to clear skies in the north valley. However, south valley locations may have fairly persistent fog much of next week. Sat (10 Jan): Areas AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Light Rain North. 30/45 Sun (11 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 34/48 Mon (12 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 35/50 Tue (13 Jan): Areas of Fog...Mainly South. Partly Sunny. 34/51 Wed (14 Jan): Areas of Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny North. 34/51 Thu (15 Jan): Areas of Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny North. 34/51 Fri (16 Jan): Areas of Fog...Mainly South. Mostly Sunny North. 34/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 14 09:01:38 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 14 Jan 2009 11:01:38 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 at 9:00am. ...The National Weather Service has issued an Air Stagnation Advisory for the Willamette Valley through Saturday... Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A upper-level ridge of high pressure built over the Pacific Northwest this past weekend is continuing to strengthen. The ridge axis was just off the coastline this morning, with a dry northwesterly flow aloft spreading only some high clouds over Washington and Oregon. The Salem sounding showed further warming aloft, since Tuesday, with temperatures over 50 degrees between 2000 and 7000 feet. Temperatures peak in the low 60s at around 3000 feet, so much the Cascade and coastal ranges will have unseasonable warm temperatures today. Strong low-level temperature inversions remained over Oregon this morning, with a blanket of clouds covering the Willamette Valley. The freezing level was near 13,000 feet over Oregon this morning. Timberline Lodge, at the 6000-foot elevation on Mt. Hood, was in the low 50s this morning. Meanwhile, Willamette Valley temperatures were mostly in the upper 30s with low clouds. Warm air aloft and colder air trapped in the interior valleys is resulting in very poor ventilation conditions, and the National Weather Service has issued an Air Stagnation Advisory for the Willamette Valley through Saturday. The ODA surface analysis showed offshore pressure gradients beginning to increase, which may help to clear the low clouds from the north valley this afternoon. Low clouds will be persistent in the central and south valley. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the central and south valley to the low 50s, and possibly mid 50s, in the north valley. Meanwhile, afternoon temperatures along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascade foothills should climb well into the 50s, and perhaps the low 60s, with a little sunshine. Surface Winds: NE 3-8 this morning, NE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this morning, NE 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 70%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: Very little change in the weather pattern is expected through Sunday, as the strong upper-level ridge of high pressure moves directly over Oregon and Washington. Stagnant air conditions will continue with valley low clouds locally gining way to party sunny skies in the afternoons. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with some sunshine. Valley temperatures will vary considerably and range generally from near to slightly above normal, due to trapped low-level cool air and areas of persistent low clouds. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southwesterly over Oregon. A weather system may drop into the region, from the Gulf of Alaska, by Tuesday, which would bring an end to the dry and stagnant weather pattern. A significant change in the weather pattern my take place around the middle of next week, with much colder air moving back into the region, but that is too far out to be sure of at this time. Tomorrow (15 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 34/48 Fri (16 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sat (17 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sun (18 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Mon (19 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 35/51 Tue (20 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/50 Wed (21 Jan): Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 37/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 14 12:00:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 14 Jan 2009 14:00:50 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for the Willamette Valley through Saturday. Warm air aloft is trapping colder air near the surface, resulting in very poor ventilation conditions... Issued: Wednesday, January 14th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge was just off the coastline this morning, with a dry north-northwesterly flow aloft spreading only some high clouds over Washington and Oregon. However, visible satellite imagery showed extensive low clouds blanketing most of the western valleys at midday. Low clouds also covered some of the valleys in eastern Oregon and much of the Columbia Basin of northeast Oregon. Skies were mostly sunny over the remainder of the state...including along the coast. The Salem sounding showed further warming aloft, since Tuesday, with the freezing level at nearly 13,000 feet. Temperatures were warmer than 50 degrees between 2000 and 7000 feet and climbed as high as the low 60s near 3000 feet. The Cascades and coast range will have unseasonable warm temperatures again today. Timberline Lodge, at the 6000-foot elevation on Mt. Hood, was 55 degrees at 11 a.m. Meanwhile, Willamette Valley temperatures were near 40 degrees with low clouds. Temperatures were in the mid 40s to low 50s, with mostly sunny skies and easterly winds, along the coast. The ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough building northward, alnog the Oregon Coast, with increasing offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon. Drier outflow, from the Columbia gorge, may help to clear the low clouds from the north valley this afternoon. Low clouds will be persistent in the central and south valley. High temperatures will range from the mid 40s in the central and south valley to the low 50s, and possibly mid 50s, in the north valley. Meanwhile, afternoon temperatures along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascade foothills should climb well into the 50s, and perhaps the low 60s, with mostly sunny skies. Surface Winds: NE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 70%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:56pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: The protective ridge of high pressure is expected to last at least through this weekend. Stagnant ventilation conditions will continue with valley low clouds locally giving way to party sunny skies in the afternoons. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies. Valley temperatures will range from slightly below normal, in cloudy/fogy areas, to well above normal, where the sunshine is able to break through. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southwesterly over Oregon. The first threat of rain comes about Tuesday, but the track of that weather system is still in question. Better ventilation conditions are likely by late next week, as colder air aloft moves over the region and breaks up the low-level temperature inversions. It is also possible that Arctic air will make another entrance into the Pacific Northwest late next week, but that is still too far out to forecast with certainty. Tomorrow (15 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 34/48 Fri (16 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sat (17 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sun (18 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Mon (19 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 35/51 Tue (20 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/50 Wed (21 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level Possibly Dropping to 2000 Feet. 37/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 15 08:56:28 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 15 Jan 2009 10:56:28 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 15th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for the Willamette Valley through Saturday. Warm air aloft is trapping colder air near the surface, resulting in very poor ventilation conditions... Issued: Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remained along the west coast this morning with light north-northweterly winds and unsesonably warm air aloft. Cooler air trapped near the surface, expecially in the valleys, was creating steep low-level temperature inversions and very stagnant ventilation conditions across the region. The strong temperature inversions made for considerable variation in afternoon temperatures Wednesday, with the warmest readings in the mountains and along the coast. Some locations in the coast range pushed into the low 70s Wednesday afternoon. It reached 61 degrees, at the 5000-foot level near Government Camp, on Mt. Hood, and 56 degrees at Timberline Lodge (6000 feet). Tillamook, along the north coast, hit 59 degrees. Further south, Newport hit 55, North Bend climbed to 63 degrees and Brookings topped out at 68. Meanwhile, low clouds and trapped low-level cool air held central and southern Willamette valley highs in the low 40s. The north valley saw some sunshine Wednesday afternoon, where temperatures managed to climb into the mid 40s. Fog and low clouds were also persistent in some of the valleys east of the Cascades Wednesday, especially in the Columbia Basin region of northeastern Oregon. Pendleton only managed a high temperature of 37 degrees. Baker City and Ontario never made it to the freezing mark Wednesday, both recording a high of just 30 degrees. Meanwhile, places like Redmond got a tast of the warmer air aloft and climbed into the low 60s. The Salem sounding this morning revealed the strong low-level temperature inversion. Readings near the surface were in the mid 30s and rapidly warmed to 50 degrees just above 1500 feet and to 65 degrees at 2500 feet. Temperatures remained above 50 degrees all the way up to 8000 feet, and the freezing level was clear up at 12,800 feet. Timberline Lodge (6000-foot elevation on Mt. Hood) had a low temperature of a balmy 48 degrees overnight and was 49 degrees at mid morning. That was in stark contrast to the icy fog in the western valleys, where temperatures ranged from the mid 20s, to the mid 30s. The morning ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough building just off the Oregon and Washington Coast and high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon. Offshore flow was increasing across western Oregon with easterly winds gusting between 20 and 40 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. East winds were also making it over the coastal range and helping to keep skies clear along the beaches. Newport was 45 degrees at mid-morning with clear skies and easterly winds of 15 mph. The drier easterly winds were not able to penetrate the low-level temperature in version in the Willamette Valley, where fog was locally reducing visibilities to less than one-quarter of a mile. Very light winds allowed temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s across central and eastern Oregon. Meacham, in northeastern Oregon, was one of the coldest spots in the state with a low of 9 degrees this morning. Very little change in the weather is expected today, compared with Wednesday. Some high clouds will stream across the state at times, in the north-northwesterly flow aloft. Fog and low clouds will be fairly persistent in the western valleys and in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon, while much of the state enjoys mostly sunny skies. Increasing drier outflow from the Columbia Gorge may help to clear the fog from the northern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will have a wide range with valley locations considerbly cooler than mountain and coastal sites. Most of the central and sotuhern Willamette Valley will have persistent fog and low clouds, with temperatures struggling to reach the mid 40s. Some afternoon sunshine should help north-valley temperatures climb at least the low 50s. Once again, mountain and coastal locations could push up well into the 60s, under mostly sunny skies. Surface Winds: NE 0-6 this morning, NE 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 3 this morning, NE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 45. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 70%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: The protective ridge of high pressure is expected to last at least through this weekend. Stagnant ventilation conditions will continue with Willamette Valley fog and low clouds locally giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoons...mainly north. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies. Valley temperatures will range from slightly below normal, in cloudy/fogy areas, to well above normal, where the sunshine is able to break through. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southerly over Oregon. Surface winds will remain strongly offshore, which may help to briefly clear fog and low clouds, even from the central and south valley...revealing some afternoon sunshine. The first threat of rain comes late on Tuesday, but that system is likely to weaken and may head mostly south of Oregon. An upper-level ridge is forecast to begin developing, just offshore, during the second half of next week. There will also be an undercutting jet westerly jet stream movning into California. Depending on the location of the developing ridge aloft, ventilation conditions may begin to improve by late next week. A change in the weather paatern is forecast by some of the computer modles beginning late next week. It is possible that some modified Arctic air may begin spilling back into the Columbia Basin of eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon by the following weekend. It is also possible that the upper-level ridge will rebuild directly over the region for a continuation of dry and stagnant conditions. The upcoming potential weather pattern change is still too far out to call. Tomorrow (16 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/48 Sat (17 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sun (18 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/51 Mon (19 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/51 Tue (20 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Light Rain Late. 35/50 Wed (21 Jan): Areas of Fog/Low Clouds. Partly Cloudy. 34/49 Thu (22 Jan): Areas of Fog/Low Clouds. Partly Cloudy. 33/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 15 12:08:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 15 Jan 2009 14:08:31 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 15th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...An Air Stagnation Advisory is in effect for the Willamette Valley through Saturday. Warm air aloft is trapping colder air near the surface, resulting in very poor ventilation conditions... Issued: Thursday, January 15th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A very strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains along the west coast today with light north-northwesterly winds and unsesonably warm air aloft. Cooler air trapped near the surface, expecially in the valleys, is resulting in steep low-level temperature inversions and very stagnant ventilation conditions across the region. Strong temperature inversions are resulting in a wide range of temperatures around the state today. The warmest readings are in the mountains and along the coast, with some very cool valley readings...especially east of the Cascacdes. Sunny skies warmed some locations in the coast range into the low 70s Wednesday afternoon, with midday readings today already topping 60 degrees. It is also sunny and warm again today in the Cascades. The midday temperature was 50 degrees, at Government Camp (5000-foot level), and Timberline Lodge (6000 feet) was 53. The entire coastline was also sunny late this morning with temperatures ranging from 48 degrees at Astoria to 54 at Newport and 58 degrees at Brookings. Meanwhile, visible satellite imagery showed low clouds blanketing most of the Willamette Valley, where temperatures were still in the 30s. East of the Cascades, Redmond had warmed into the 40s with some sunshine, but some valley locations, like Baker City, Pendleton, and Klamath Falls, were still in the upper 20s with low clouds and fog. The Salem sounding this morning also refected the strong low-level temperature inversion. Readings near the surface were in the mid 30s but rapidly warmed to 50 degrees just above 1500 feet, and to 65 degrees at 2500 feet. Temperatures remained above 50 degrees all the way up to 8000 feet, and the freezing level was clear up at 12,800 feet. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough building just off the Oregon and Washington Coast and high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon. Offshore flow was increasing across western Oregon with easterly winds gusting between 20 and 40 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. East winds were also making it over the coastal range and helping to keep skies clear along the beaches, with gusts to nearly 20 mph at Newport. The drier easterly winds have not been able to penetrate the low-level temperature inversion in the Willamette Valley, where fog was still locally reducing visibilities to less than one-quarter of a mile. Fog and low clouds will be persistent in the western valleys and in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon, while much of the state enjoys mostly sunny skies. Increasing drier outflow from the Columbia Gorge may help to clear the fog from the northern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Temperatures will have a wide range this afternoon with valley locations considerably cooler than mountain and coastal sites. Most of the central and sotuhern Willamette Valley will have persistent fog and low clouds, with temperatures struggling into the low 40s. Some afternoon sunshine should help north-valley temperatures climb at least the upper 40s and perhaps the low 50s. Once again, mountain and coastal locations could push up well into the 50s and 60s, under mostly sunny skies. Surface Winds: NE 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 3. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 42. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 79%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:46am. Extended Outlook: The protective ridge of high pressure is expected to last at least through this weekend. Stagnant ventilation conditions will continue with Willamette Valley fog and low clouds locally giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoons...mainly north. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies. Valley temperatures will range from slightly below normal, in cloudy/fogy areas, to slightly above normal, where the sunshine is able to break through. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southerly over Oregon. Surface winds will remain strongly offshore, which could provide some afternoon clearing in the valleys, with mostly sunny skies elsewhere across the state. The first threat of rain comes late on Tuesday, but that system is likely to weaken and may head mostly south of Oregon. An upper-level ridge is forecast to begin developing, just offshore, during the second half of next week. There will also be an undercutting jet westerly jet stream movning into California. Depending on the location of the developing ridge aloft, ventilation conditions may begin to improve by late next week. A possible change in the weather paatern is forecast by computer models beginning late next week, but it is too soon to tell what the new pattern will be. Tomorrow (16 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/48 Sat (17 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/50 Sun (18 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/51 Mon (19 Jan): AM Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 33/51 Tue (20 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Light Rain Late. 35/50 Wed (21 Jan): Areas of Fog/Low Clouds. Partly Cloudy. 34/49 Thu (22 Jan): Areas of Fog/Low Clouds. Partly Cloudy. 33/48 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 16 09:01:17 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 11:01:17 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, January 16th, 2009 at 9:00am. ...The Portland National Weather Service has extended the air stagnation advisory through Sunday for the Willamette Valley. Unseasonably warm air aloft is trapping cool air near the surface and creating poor ventilation conditions... Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Little change in the weather is expected today, as a strong upper-level ridge remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest. Infrared satellite imagery showed only some high clouds circulating mainly across Washington. However, low clouds and fog blanketed many of the valley locations, on both sides of the Cascades, this morning. The morning ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough off the Oregon coast and high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon. That was continuing to produce strong offshore flow across western Oregon. Easterly winds were gusting to 60 mph at Corbett, in the western Columbia Gorge, this morning and to 40 mph in Troutdale. The drier low-level Gorge winds were helping to keep skies clear in the extreme north valley, near Portland. The fog even cleared from Hillsboro this morning, which allowed the temperatures there to drop into the low 20s. Foggy conditions continued from about McMinnville and Aurora south to Eugene with visibilities locally one-quarter of a mile or less. Much of the valley had temperatures near of slightly below freezing at mid-morning. The Salem sounding this morning showed an almost identical temperature profile to Thursday morning. The air aloft rapidly warmed to 50 degrees at an elevation of just 2000 feet and to nearly 70 degrees from 3-5000 feet. The air slowly cooled above 5000 feet but stayed above freezing all the way to 12,700 feet. The warm temperatures aloft were reflected in surface temperatures on Mt. Hood this morning. Government Camp (5000 feet) was 60 degrees at 8 am and Timberline Lodge (6000 feet) was 55 degrees. Weather stations in the central coast range (near 2000 feet) were also reoorting temperatures in the low 60s this morning. Easterly winds were dropping off the coastal range and spreading across the beaches this morning. Newport was getting gusts to over 20 mph and had a temperature of 45 degrees. Coastal highs climbed into the upper 50s and low 60s on Thursday and should do so again today with sunny skies. Fog and low clouds will persist in the central and southern Willamette Valley again today, with the dry easterly flow unable to break the valley inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees in the south valley and mid 40s in the central valley. Meanwhile, much of the extreme north valley will have another sunny afternoon with highs in the mid to upper 40s. East of the Cascades, fog and low clouds have become more extensive each day in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon and extend well into the Hood River Valley and south to Jefferson County this morning. Widespread fog was also visible, on satellite imagery, from Baker City to Ontario, in eastern Oregon. Temperatures were in the teens and 20s across the central and eastern sections of the state. Temperatures cooled a few degrees yesterday in most areas east of the Cascades, and that trend will continue today. South-central Oregon will continue to see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 50s, but fog and low clouds will encompass more lower elevation locations today with many valley areas staying below freezing. Fog and low clouds will likely penetrate south into Redmond and Bend by Saturday with much cooler temperatures there. Surface Winds: NE 0-6 this morning, NE 0-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 3 this morning, NE 3 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 2. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 43. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 73%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:59pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:45am. Extended Outlook: The protective ridge of high pressure is expected to last at least through this weekend. Stagnant ventilation conditions will continue with Willamette Valley fog and low clouds locally giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoons...mainly north. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies. Valley temperatures will range from slightly below normal, in cloudy/fogy areas, to slightly above normal, where dry offshore flow helps the sun cut through the fog. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southerly over Oregon. Surface winds will remain strongly offshore, which will continue to bring some afternoon clearing...mainly to the north valley. Mostly sunny and unseasnably mild weather will continue along the coast and in the mountains. A splitting and weakening weather system will approach the coastline late Tuesday. It appears as if it will be a dry system and only spread some high clouds acorss the region. It will weaken the offshore flow, with temperatures beginning to cool in the mountains and along the coast. Valley temperatures may warm a few degrees. Long-range computer model forecasts vary considerably, after Tuesday, with the latest guidance suggesting the a weak upper-level trough may drop into the region by late Wednesday and begin to improve ventilation conditions. There is even a slight chance of showers. Valley temperatures will likely warm, as the low-level temperature inversion weakens. The flow aloft may turn more northerly by Thursday, with cooler air, at all levels, beginning to spill into the region from British Columbia. Tomorrow (17 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Sun (18 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Mon (19 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Tue (20 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing. Increasing High Clouds. 31/48 Wed (21 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 34/49 Thu (22 Jan): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/46 Fri (23 Jan): Partly Cloudy. 32/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 16 12:04:52 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 16 Jan 2009 14:04:52 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update scheduled for Tuesday, January 20th at 9:00am... NOON UPDATE ...The Portland National Weather Service has extended the air stagnation advisory through Sunday for the Willamette Valley. Unseasonably warm air aloft is trapping cool air near the surface and creating poor ventilation conditions... Issued: Friday, January 16th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Little change in the weather is expected today, as a strong upper-level ridge remains anchored over the Pacific Northwest. Infrared satellite imagery showed only some high clouds circulating across Washington and northern Oregon. However, low clouds and fog continued to blanket many of the valley locations, on both sides of the Cascades, at midday. The late-morning ODA surface analysis continued to show a thermal trough off the Oregon coast and high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon. That was continuing to produce strong offshore flow across western Oregon. Easterly winds were gusting to 60 mph at Corbett (western Columbia Gorge) early this morning and were still gusting to just over 50 mph at midday. Easterly winds were gusting to 40 mph in Troutdale early this morning with gusts near 25 mph at midday. The drier low-level Gorge winds were helping to keep skies clear in the extreme north valley, near Portland, where it was sunny late this morning. The fog even cleared from Hillsboro early this morning, which allowed the temperatures there to drop to a low of 22 degrees. It had only warmed to the freezing mark there by 11am. Low clouds and fog continued to blanket the Willamette Valley, from a Newberg-to-Aurora line south to Eugene. Visibilities were still locally one-quarter of a mile or less. Most of the valley had temperatures in the low to mid 30s. The Salem sounding this morning showed an almost identical temperature profile to Thursday morning. The air aloft rapidly warmed to 50 degrees at an elevation of just 2000 feet and to nearly 70 degrees from 3-5000 feet. The air slowly cooled above 5000 feet but stayed above freezing all the way to 12,700 feet. The warm temperatures aloft were reflected in surface temperatures on Mt. Hood late this morning. Government Camp (5000 feet) was 64 degrees at 11 am and Timberline Lodge (6000 feet) was 60 degrees. Weather stations in the central coast range (near 2000 feet) were also reoporting temperatures as warm as the upper 60s late this morning. Easterly winds were dropping off the coastal range and spreading westward to the beaches. Newport was getting gusts to near 20 mph and had a temperature of 54 degrees at 11 am. It was also in the mid 50s at North Bend and 60 degrees in Brookings. Coastal highs climbed into the upper 50s and low 60s on Thursday and should be at least that warm today with sunny skies. Fog and low clouds will persist in the central and southern Willamette Valley again today, with the dry easterly flow unable to break the valley inversion. High temperatures will struggle to reach 40 degrees in the south valley but may climb into the upper 40s, with sunshine, in the extreme north valley, near Portland. East of the Cascades, fog and low clouds have become more extensive each day in the Columbia Basin of northeastern Oregon and extend well into the Hood River Valley and south to Jefferson County this morning. Widespread fog was also visible, on satellite imagery, from Baker City to Ontario, in eastern Oregon. Early morning temperatures were in the teens and 20s across the central and eastern sections of the state and ranged from the mid 20s to the upper 40s at midday. Temperatures cooled a few degrees yesterday in most areas east of the Cascades, and that trend will continue today. South-central Oregon will continue to see mostly sunny skies, with highs in the low 50s, but fog and low clouds will encompass more lower elevation locations today with many valley areas staying below freezing. Fog and low clouds will likely penetrate south into Redmond and Bend over the weekend, with much cooler temperatures there. Surface Winds: NE 0-6 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 3 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 500 feet. Ventilation index 2. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 43. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 73%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 4:59pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:45am. Extended Outlook: The protective ridge of high pressure is expected to last at least through this weekend. Stagnant ventilation conditions will continue with Willamette Valley fog and low clouds locally giving way to partly sunny skies in the afternoons...mainly north. Temperatures will be well above normal along the coast, in the coastal range, and in the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies. Valley temperatures will range from slightly below normal, in cloudy/fogy areas, to slightly above normal, where dry offshore flow helps the sun cut through the fog. Long-range computer models show the upper-level ridge shifting east, to over the Rockies, early next week, with the flow aloft becoming southerly over Oregon. Surface winds will remain strongly offshore, which will continue to bring some afternoon clearing...mainly to the north valley. Mostly sunny and unseasnably mild weather will continue along the coast and in the mountains. A splitting and weakening weather system will approach the coastline late Tuesday. It appears as if it will be a dry system and only spread some high clouds acorss the region. It will weaken the offshore flow, with temperatures beginning to cool in the mountains and along the coast. Valley temperatures may warm a few degrees. Long-range computer model forecasts vary considerably, after Tuesday, with the latest guidance suggesting the a weak upper-level trough may drop into the region by late Wednesday and begin to improve ventilation conditions. There is even a slight chance of showers. Valley temperatures will likely warm, as the low-level temperature inversion weakens. The flow aloft may turn more northerly by Thursday, with cooler air, at all levels, beginning to spill into the region from British Columbia. Tomorrow (17 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Sun (18 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Mon (19 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing...Mainly North. 30/47 Tue (20 Jan): Valley Low Clouds/Fog. Afternoon Clearing. Increasing High Clouds. 31/48 Wed (21 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 34/49 Thu (22 Jan): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 33/46 Fri (23 Jan): Partly Cloudy. 32/46 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 20 08:59:27 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 20 Jan 2009 10:59:27 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, January 20th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The upper-level ridge that has brought dry and unseasonably warm conditions to much of the region over the past several days had shifted east, to over the Rockies, this morning. on the wet side of the ridge, the upper-level winds were southerly over Oregon and Washington with the air aloft slowly starting to cool. The Salem sounding this morning showed a few degrees of cooling, compared with Monday morning, starting at about 2000 feet and extending all the way up to around 26,000 feet. The freezing level had dropped slightly, from 12,300 feet to 11,000 feet. There was still a strong low-level temperature inversion over the Willamette Valley this morning. Surface temperatures were mostly in the mid to upper 20s, with 3-5000 foot temperatures between 50 and 55 degrees. That will lead to very low mixing heights and poor ventilation conditions again today. The ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore flow, with high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon and a thermal trough of low pressure just off the coastline. Offshore pressure gradients are weakening, but easterly winds were still gusting in excess of 40 mph at the western end of the Columbia Gorge at mid-morning with temperatures in the chilly mid 30s. Enough drier air filtered into the Willamette Valley, via northerly winds, over the weekend to help clear the persisten fog from the region. Fair skies and light notherly flow overngiht allowed many areas to drop well into the 20s this morning. Easterly winds were still dropping off the coastal range, to the coastline, keeping temperatures there near 40 degrees under mostly clear skies. East of the Cascades, winds were generally light with widespread fog and low clouds in the mountain valleys...especially in the Columbia Basin of northeast Oregon, the Hood River Valley, and south into Jefferson and Deschutes Counties. Temperatures were mostly in the teens and low 20s. Infrared satellite imagery showed only a few high clouds moving northward across Oregon and Washington, with a splitting and weakening weather system still several hundred miles offshore. The air mass over western Oregon was still dry enough to limit fog formation this morning, so skies should be mostly sunny, from the coast to the Cascades, again today. Temperatures should be a few degrees cooler than on Monday, in most locations. Valley highs will be in the 40s with coastal readings climbing into the 50s. Cascades pass temperatures will be near 40 degrees with some western foothills climbing into the low 50s. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, N 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 5 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 800 feet. Ventilation index 4. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 51%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:42am. Extended Outlook: A weakening weather system will move onshore, into California, on Wednesday with continued southerly flow aloft over Oregon. Further weakening of the offshore surface flow may allow the air mass to moisten enough over the valley for more widespread morning fog. Middle and high clouds should increase across the region during the day, but it appears that shower activity will not make it as far north as the Willamette Valley until possibly Wednesday night. The air aloft will continue to cool but not likely enough to eliminate the strong low-level temperature inversion, so ventilation conditions should remain poor through Wednesday. There is a slight chance of light showers by Thursday morning across all of Oregon, especially for the southern half of the state. More cooling aloft will lower the snow level to around 5000 feet with impoving ventialtion conditions over the Willamette Valley. Any moisture riding over the trapped cold air in the Columbia Gorge and eastern valley locations could result in a wintry mix of precipitation, but amounts should be very light. A weak ridge is forecast to move back over Oregon Friday with the flow aloft becoming northwesterly and drying out. Continued cooling aloft will help to further improve ventilation conditions. The long-range computer models have been inconsistent with their forecasts of a major weather pattern change, so my confidence in the forecast beyond Friday is below average. It appears that the upper-level ridge of high pressure will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska with a colder north-northwesterly flow aloft developing over the Pacific Northwest beginning this weekend. That would bring much lower snow levels with some rain and snow to the region. It is possible that much colder Arctic air may spill into the region by Sunday, but that is still questionable at this time. Tomorrow (21 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Becoming Partly Cloudy. 27/46 Thu (22 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. 33/46 Fri (23 Jan): Slight Chance of AM Showers. Mostly Cloudy. 35/47 Sat (24 Jan): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Chance of Rain or Snow. 32/40 Mon (26 Jan): Partly Cloudy and Colder. 25/35 Tue (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds Late. 25/40 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jan 21 09:00:44 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 21 Jan 2009 11:00:44 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, January 21st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, January 21st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A very strong upper-level ridge has brought unseasonably dry and stagnant weather conditions to the region since about the 9th of January. The weather pattern is undergoing a major change. The protective ridge is splitting, with the southern section now over the Rockies and the northern section building offshore, into Alaska. That has left Washington and Oregon under a weak southwesterly flow aloft. The Salem sounding this morning showed a couple more degrees of cooling, compared with Tuesday morning, between about 3000 and 17,000 feet. The freezing level had dropped slightly to 9300 feet. There was still a strong low-level temperature inversion over the Willamette Valley with surface temperatures in the 20s and the 3000-foot temperature warming to 54 degrees. That will lead to very low mixing heights and poor ventilation conditions again today. The morning ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore flow, with high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon and a thermal trough of low pressure just off the coastline. Offshore pressure gradients did not weaken much overnight, and easterly winds were still gusting to over 30 mph at Troutdate and to near 60 mph in Corbett, at the west end of the Columbia Gorge. However, the east winds had stopped at the Portland Airport, which is a sign of the relaxing pressure gradients. Calm winds and dry air in the Willamette Valley this morning allowed minimum temperatures to fall well into the 20s. Eugene dipped to 23 degrees, while Salem and McMinnville fell to 24. Aurora and and Corvallis bottomed out at 25. Some fog was able to form in the south valley, near Eugene, while the rest of the valley saw increasing middle and high clouds, from the southwesterly flow aloft. Dry easterly winds were still dropping off the coastal range, to the coastline, keeping fog off the coast but also holding minimum temperatures there in the 30s to low 40s. Astoria did manage to briefly dip to the freezing mark this morning, but Newport never fell below 40 degrees. Valley fog and low clouds were widespread again this morning, east of the Cascades, along with increasing middle and high clouds. It was another seasonably cold morning with minimums mostly in the teens to mid 20s. Infrared satellite imagery showed a splitting and weakening weather system a couple of hundred miles offshore with middle and high clouds advancing inland across mainly California and Oregon. Clouds were just starting to rapidly increase across southwestern Washington. Doppler radar showed some light showers across northwestern California, with a few sprinkles possibly circulating as far north as Lane County, in Oregon. Continued cooling aloft and increasing cloud-cover should hold afternoon temperatures down a few degrees from Tuesday across western Oregon. Valley highs will be in the mid 40s with coastal readings in the low to mid 50s. Mild Cascades pass temperatures will continue, with highs today warming into the low to mid 40s. Some locations, in the western Cascade foothills, could climb into the low 50s. A weakening weather system will move into California today with southwesterly flow aloft bringing increaing clouds to Oregon. Some very light shower activity could make it into southwestern Oregon today, and eventually into the southern Willamette Valley by this evening. The air aloft will continue to cool but not likely enough to eliminate the strong low-level temperature inversion, so ventilation conditions should remain poor this afternoon. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, N 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 8 this morning, N 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 700 feet. Ventilation index 6. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:41am. Extended Outlook: There is a slight chance of sprinkles or very light showers tonight and Thursday morning across all of Oregon, especially for the southern half of the state. With cold air trapped near the surface in the Willamette Valley, some local freezing drizzle could make for slick roadways. However, increasing clouds will make for a warmer night tonight, with minimums hovering near the freezing mark. The air aloft will continue to slowly cool with the snow level dropping to around 5000 feet Thursday. That should begin to improve ventialtion conditions over the Willamette Valley. Any moisture riding over the trapped cold air in the Columbia Gorge and eastern valley locations could result in a wintry mix of precipitation tonight and Thursday, but amounts should be very light. A weak ridge is forecast to dry out the air mass Thursday afternoon and Friday, but snow levels should stay around 5000 feet. It appears that the upper-level ridge of high pressure will rebuild in the Gulf of Alaska with a colder north-northwesterly flow aloft developing over the Pacific Northwest beginning this weekend. That would bring much lower snow levels with some rain and snow to the region. It appears likely now that some Arctic air will spill into the region by Sunday, but it may not be accompanied by much moisture...which would limit the low-elevation snow potential. Tomorrow (22 Jan): Slight Chance of Drizzle or Freezing Drizzle Early. Clearing PM. 31/46 Fri (23 Jan): Patchy AM Fog. Partly Cloudy. 31/47 Sat (24 Jan): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Light Rain Turning to Light Snow...Colder. 32/38 Mon (26 Jan): Light Snow Ending Early. Becoming Partly Cloudy and Cold. 25/32 Tue (27 Jan): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 22/38 Wed (28 Jan): Increasing Clouds Late. 24/41 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jan 22 09:02:59 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 22 Jan 2009 11:02:59 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, January 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, January 22nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Washington and Oregon are still under the influence of a weak southwesterly flow aloft today. The Salem sounding this morning showed continued cooling aloft, between about 2000 and 20,000 feet. The freezing level was 7300 feet early this morning, which is down 2000 feet from Wednesday afternoon. The strong low-level temperature inversion over the Willamette Valley is starting to weaken. 3000-foot temperatures have cooled below 50 degrees. However, mixing heights will remain very low today with continued poor ventilation conditions. The late-morning ODA surface analysis continued to show offshore flow across western Oregon, with high pressure over eastern Washington and Oregon and a thermal trough of low pressure just off the coastline. Offshore pressure gradients have continued to weaken. Easterly winds were still gusting to 25 mph at Troutdate and to near 45 mph in Corbett, at the west end of the Columbia Gorge. Winds were calm at the Portland Airport and throughout most of the Willamette Valley. Considerable middle and high clouds kept overnight temperatures a little warmer in the Willamette Valley, although they were still below normal. Corvallis, Salem, and Hillsboro fell to 28 degrees, Eugene diipped to 31, and McMinnville dropped to the freezing mark. There was not much in the way of fog this morning across the valley with skies remaining mostly cloudy. Dry easterly winds kept fog off the coast this morning, where minimum temperatures were held in the mid 30s to low 40s by mostly cloudy skies. Mostly cloudy skies also kept overnight temperatures warmer east of the Cascades, where minimums this morning were mostly in the 20s. A weakening weather system moved onshore last night and was strong enough to produce some sprinkles across southwestern Oregon and a light wintry mix of precipitation across sections of eastern Oregon. Amounts were very light. Infrared satellite imagery showed the center of that weak weather system near San Francisco, CA. Middle and high clouds covered most of the western third of the country...including Oregon. Doppler radar showed some rain in Northern California but only some sprinkles and very light showers making it north into southern and eastern Oregon. No rain was reported overnight in the Willamette Valley. Medford was reporting some light rain at mid-morning. Skies will remin mostly cloudy across Oregon today. There is a slight chance of sprinkles or very light showers across mainly southern and eastern Oregon. With cold air trapped near the surface in the valleys of eastern Oregon and in the Columbia Gorge, any precipitation could be in the form of a wintry mix, but amounts should be very light. The freezing should stay around 7000 feet with Cascades pass temperatures climbing into the low 40s this afternoon. A weak ridge is forecast to dry out the air mass tonight and Friday. Surface Winds: N 0-5 this morning, N 0-5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 5 this morning, N 4 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 900 feet. Ventilation index 5. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 46. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 65%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:41am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge is forecast to build northward, into the Gulf of Alaska, and drive a cold but mostly dry weather system southward into the Pacific Northwest this weekend. That will lower snow levels to near 2000 feet Saturday with a chance of showers returning to the region. The cool upper-level trough will further weaken the low-level temperature inversion and improve ventilation conditions Saturday. It appears likely now that some colder Arctic air will spill into Washington late Saturday and into northern Oregon Sunday, but it may not be accompanied by much moisture...which would limit the low-elevation snow potential. Temperatures should start out in the upper 30s, on Sunday, then hold steady or fall during the day, as colder air moves south across the Willamette Valley. The transition to colder air will likely be accompanied by snow flurries with accumulations likely remaining below an inch. This pattern will need to be monitored closely, however, since a slight change to a more over-the-water track of this system could bring a couple of inches of snow to the floor of the Willamette Valley. Skies should begin to clear Sunday night, as northerly winds usher colder and dry air southweard across western Oregon. Willamette Valley minimums should drop into the low to mid 20s and perhaps locally into the upper teens. Skies will continue to clear Monday, as a cold high pressure system settles over the area. High temperatures will struggle into the low to mid 30s. After a cold night Monday night, mostly sunny skies and a buiding ridge of high pressure aloft will begin to moderate temperatures Tuesday. A weak weather system will bring some clouds and perhaps a few sprinkles Wednesday, followed by dry conditions Thursday with areas of fog. Tomorrow (23 Jan): Patchy AM Fog. Partly Cloudy. 31/47 Sat (24 Jan): Increasing Chance of Showers. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Light Rain Turning to Light Snow...Colder. Minor Accumulations. 32/38 Mon (26 Jan): Slight Chance of Light Snow Early. Partly Cloudy and Cold. 25/34 Tue (27 Jan): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 22/38 Wed (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles. 29/41 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 30/45 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 23 09:01:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:01:10 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, January 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A dry and cold northerly flow aloft is developing across British Columbia with a mild and moist southerly flow aloft over California this morning. The two, very different, upper-level flow patterns converge over Washington and Oregon with lots of clouds but really nothing in the way of precipitation across the region. Mostly cloudy skies kept temperatures warmer overnight across Oregon, with Willamette Valley minimums generally in the low 30s. Hillsboro was one of the coldest spots with a low of 29 degrees. Cloudy skies helped to keep fog from forming west of the Cascades, but fog covered many of the valleys in central and eastern Oregon. Temperatures east of the Cascades were also more moderate overnight, where minumums were mostly in the 20s and low 30s. Infrared satellite imagery showed lots of mid-level and some high clouds hanging out over Oregon, with weak flow aloft not moving the clouds anywhere quickly. The ODA surface analysis showed cold Canadian air beginning to spill into eastern Washington, which was increasing the offshore pressure gradients through the Columbia Gorge. Easterly winds were gusting over 30 mph at Troutdale and to 60 mph in Corbett. Easterly winds had also increased slightly along the coast, compared with yesterday morning. Light northerly winds were developing in the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning continued to show a fairly strong temperature inversion from the surface up to about 2000 feet with the temperature remaining fairly constant from 2000 feet up to about 5000 feet. The freezing level held fairly steady over the past 24 hours and was at 7600 feet. However, the air mass did cool a few more degrees below 5000 feet, compared with Thursday, so mixing heights should be slightly higher today. However, conditions remain too stagnant to allow for stack burning. Considerable middle and high clouds will remain over the region today, with not much of a chance of any precipitation statewide. With a lack of fog across western Oregon, there will also be some sunbreaks today. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Increasing cool outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, should keep north valley temperatures from climbing above the mid 40s. Downsloping easterly winds will help the coastline shoot into the 50s this afternoon, except near Astoria, where cold low-level easterly winds may keep temperatures in the 40s. Surface Winds: N 0-8 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 8 this morning, N 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1200 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:08pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:40am. Extended Outlook: The cold northerly flow over British Columbia will sag south over Washington and Oregon this weekend. That will lower snow levels to 4000 feet Saturday and to near 2000 feet Saturday night, but moisture will be very limited. Colder Arctic air will spill into Washington late Saturday and into northern Oregon Sunday morning, lowering the snow level to the valley floors west of the Cascades. The air mass will rapidly dry out, as the colder air moves south across the Willamette Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. There may be a brief period of flurries of light snow with the onset of the colder air, but significant accumulations are unlikely. Temperatures should start out in the upper 30s or low 40s Sunday, then hold steady or fall during the day, as the modified Arctic air moves south across the Willamette Valley. Skies should begin to clear Sunday night, with dry and cold northerly winds dropping valley temperatures well into the 20s, and perhaps the upper teens. Monday should become mostly sunny, as cold Canadian high pressure settles over the area. High temperatures will struggle into the low to mid 30s, with temperatures in the Columbia Gorge staying near of below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will continue at the western end of the Gorge with cold northerly winds in the Willamette Valley. After a cold night Monday night, with valley minimums dropping back well into the 20s, clouds will increase Tuesday in response to a weak weather system sliding by mainly to our north. It could be storng enough to bring some light precipitation to northern Oregon late Tuesday. Precipitation from this system would likely fall as snow, in the Columbia Gorge, and perhaps briefly in the northern Willamette Valley, before changing to rain. Precipitation totals shouuld be very light, but some minor snow accumulations are possible in the mountains and in the Columbia Gorge. A few sprinkles may persist across northwestern Oregon, as high pressure builds back over the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A more westerly jet stream is forecast to bring a series of wet weather systems onshore beginning late Friday. These systems should bring rain to the lowlands and snow to the mountains. Tomorrow (24 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet Late. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Light Rain Turning to Light Snow...Colder. Little or No Accumulations. 32/38 Mon (26 Jan): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 23/35 Tue (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain of Snow Late. 22/38 Wed (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles. 29/41 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 35/47 Fri (30 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 23 09:13:03 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2009 11:13:03 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected temperature forecast for Wednesday, January 28th... Issued: Friday, January 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A dry and cold northerly flow aloft is developing across British Columbia with a mild and moist southerly flow aloft over California this morning. The two, very different, upper-level flow patterns converge over Washington and Oregon with lots of clouds but really nothing in the way of precipitation across the region. Mostly cloudy skies kept temperatures warmer overnight across Oregon, with Willamette Valley minimums generally in the low 30s. Hillsboro was one of the coldest spots with a low of 29 degrees. Cloudy skies helped to keep fog from forming west of the Cascades, but fog covered many of the valleys in central and eastern Oregon. Temperatures east of the Cascades were also more moderate overnight, where minumums were mostly in the 20s and low 30s. Infrared satellite imagery showed lots of mid-level and some high clouds hanging out over Oregon, with weak flow aloft not moving the clouds anywhere quickly. The ODA surface analysis showed cold Canadian air beginning to spill into eastern Washington, which was increasing the offshore pressure gradients through the Columbia Gorge. Easterly winds were gusting over 30 mph at Troutdale and to 60 mph in Corbett. Easterly winds had also increased slightly along the coast, compared with yesterday morning. Light northerly winds were developing in the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning continued to show a fairly strong temperature inversion from the surface up to about 2000 feet with the temperature remaining fairly constant from 2000 feet up to about 5000 feet. The freezing level held fairly steady over the past 24 hours and was at 7600 feet. However, the air mass did cool a few more degrees below 5000 feet, compared with Thursday, so mixing heights should be slightly higher today. However, conditions remain too stagnant to allow for stack burning. Considerable middle and high clouds will remain over the region today, with not much of a chance of any precipitation statewide. With a lack of fog across western Oregon, there will also be some sunbreaks today. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Increasing cool outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, should keep north valley temperatures from climbing above the mid 40s. Downsloping easterly winds will help the coastline shoot into the 50s this afternoon, except near Astoria, where cold low-level easterly winds may keep temperatures in the 40s. Surface Winds: N 0-8 this morning, N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 8 this morning, N 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1200 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:08pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:40am. Extended Outlook: The cold northerly flow over British Columbia will sag south over Washington and Oregon this weekend. That will lower snow levels to 4000 feet Saturday and to near 2000 feet Saturday night, but moisture will be very limited. Colder Arctic air will spill into Washington late Saturday and into northern Oregon Sunday morning, lowering the snow level to the valley floors west of the Cascades. The air mass will rapidly dry out, as the colder air moves south across the Willamette Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. There may be a brief period of flurries of light snow with the onset of the colder air, but significant accumulations are unlikely. Temperatures should start out in the upper 30s or low 40s Sunday, then hold steady or fall during the day, as the modified Arctic air moves south across the Willamette Valley. Skies should begin to clear Sunday night, with dry and cold northerly winds dropping valley temperatures well into the 20s, and perhaps the upper teens. Monday should become mostly sunny, as cold Canadian high pressure settles over the area. High temperatures will struggle into the low to mid 30s, with temperatures in the Columbia Gorge staying near of below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will continue at the western end of the Gorge with cold northerly winds in the Willamette Valley. After a cold night Monday night, with valley minimums dropping back well into the 20s, clouds will increase Tuesday in response to a weak weather system sliding by mainly to our north. It could be storng enough to bring some light precipitation to northern Oregon late Tuesday. Precipitation from this system would likely fall as snow, in the Columbia Gorge, and perhaps briefly in the northern Willamette Valley, before changing to rain. Precipitation totals shouuld be very light, but some minor snow accumulations are possible in the mountains and in the Columbia Gorge. A few sprinkles may persist across northwestern Oregon, as high pressure builds back over the region Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. A more westerly jet stream is forecast to bring a series of wet weather systems onshore beginning late Friday. These systems should bring rain to the lowlands and snow to the mountains. Tomorrow (24 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet Late. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Light Rain Turning to Light Snow...Colder. Little or No Accumulations. 32/38 Mon (26 Jan): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 23/35 Tue (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain of Snow Late. 22/38 Wed (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles. 35/45 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 35/47 Fri (30 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jan 23 11:55:40 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 23 Jan 2009 13:55:40 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, January 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, January 23rd, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A dry and cold north-northwesterly flow aloft is developing across British Columbia with a mild and relatively moist southerly flow aloft over California today. The, very different, upper-level flow patterns converge over Washington and Oregon with lots of clouds but no precipitation across either state. Mostly cloudy skies kept temperatures warmer overnight across Oregon, with Willamette Valley minimums generally in the low 30s. Hillsboro was one of the coldest spots with a low of 28 degrees. The warmer overnight temperatures and fairly dry air mass kept fog from forming west of the Cascades, but fog and low clouds blanketed many of the valleys in central and eastern Oregon. Temperatures east of the Cascades were more moderate overnight, with morning minumums mostly in the 20s and low 30s. Infrared satellite imagery showed lots of middle and high clouds hanging out over Oregon, with weak upper-level winds not moving the clouds anywhere quickly. The ODA surface analysis showed cold Canadian air beginning to spill into eastern Washington, which was increasing pressures east of the Cascades and generating more of an offshore flow. Easterly winds were gusting over 30 mph at Troutdale, and to 60 mph in Corbett, at the western end of the Columbia Gorge. Northeasterly winds were blowing at near 10 mph along the coast with north-northesterly winds of 5-10 mph in the Willamette Valley. The Salem sounding this morning continued to show a fairly strong temperature inversion from the surface up to about 2000 feet with the temperature remaining fairly constant between 2000 and 5000 feet (indicating a deep stable layer of air). The freezing level held fairly steady over the past 24 hours and was at 7600 feet. There was some cooling of the air mass below 5000 feet, compared with Thursday, which will promoteslightly better mixing today. However, conditions remain too stagnant to allow for stack burning. Midday temperatures were in the upper 30s and low 40s across the Willamette Valley, with the coldest readings near the Columbia Gorge. Coattal temperatures ranged from near 40 at Astoria to the low 50s at Brookings, on the south coast. Considerable middle and high clouds will remain over Oregon today but little or no precipitation. High temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 40s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Increasing cool outflow, from the Columbia Gorge, should keep north valley temperatures from climbing above the mid 40s. Downsloping easterly winds will help the coastline shoot into the 50s this afternoon, except near Astoria, where cold easterly winds will keep highs in the 40s. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1200 feet. Ventilation index 12. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 46%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:08pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:40am. Extended Outlook: The cold northerly flow over British Columbia will sag south over Washington and Oregon this weekend. That will lower snow levels to 4000 feet Saturday and to near 2000 feet Saturday night. Moisture will be limited, with the best chance of rain and snow across southern and eastern Oregon. Colder Arctic air will spill into Washington late Saturday and into northern Oregon Sunday. The air mass will rapidly dry out, as the colder air moves south across the Willamette Valley Sunday afternoon and evening. There may be a brief period of flurries of light snow with the onset of the colder air. However, with limited moisture, no significant snow accumulations are expected in the Willamette Valley, but a light dusting is possible before the precipitation shuts off Sunday night. Temperatures should start out in the upper 30s or low 40s Sunday, then hold steady or fall during the afternoon and evening, as modified Arctic air moves south across the Willamette Valley. Skies should begin to clear Sunday night, with dry and cold northerly winds dropping valley temperatures well into the 20s (perhaps the upper teens). Monday should become mostly sunny, as cold Canadian high pressure settles over the area. High temperatures will struggle into the low to mid 30s, with temperatures in the Columbia Gorge staying near of below freezing. Brisk easterly winds will continue at the western end of the Gorge with cold northerly winds in the Willamette Valley. After a cold night Monday night, with valley minimums dropping well into the 20s, clouds will increase Tuesday in response to a weak weather system sliding mainly into southern British Columbia. Some light precipitation could spread as far south as northern Oregon late Tuesday. Precipitation from this system would likely fall as snow in the Columbia Gorge, and perhaps briefly in the northern Willamette Valley, before changing to rain. Precipitation totals should be very light, but some minor snow accumulations are possible in the mountains and in the Columbia Gorge. A building upper-level ridge of high pressure will warm the air aloft, and also moderate surface temperatures, during the second half of next week. A few sprinkles or very light rain is possible in the northern half of the state. High pressure may dry things briefly Thursday and early Friday. However, a strong westerly jet stream is forecast to bring a series of wet weather systems onshore, beginning late Friday, with frequent valley rain and mountain snow expected during the first week of February. Tomorrow (24 Jan): Chance of Showers. Snow Level dropping to 2000 Feet Late. 32/45 Sun (25 Jan): Light Rain Turning to Light Snow...Colder. Little or No Accumulations. 33/38 Mon (26 Jan): Mostly Sunny and Cold. 23/35 Tue (27 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain of Snow Late. 22/38 Wed (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles. 35/45 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles North. 35/47 Fri (30 Jan): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 35/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jan 26 08:59:11 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 26 Jan 2009 10:59:11 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, January 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, January 26th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 9:00am until 3:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A strengthening northerly flow aloft drove a modified Arctic cold front southward, across Washington and Oregon over the weekend, bringing light rain and snow to much of the region. Light snow started falling in the higher elevations of the north valley Saturday with local accumulations up to an inch Saturday night. Lower elevations of western Oregon generally saw no significant snow accumulation, but light snow did fall, on the valley floors, at least as far south as Salem on Sunday, with the passage of the modified Arctic front. The frontal system also dramatically cooled the air aloft, which wiped out the strong low-level temperature inversion that had brought stagnant ventilation conditions to the region for more than a week. The Salem sonding this morning showed significant cooling from the surface up to 11,000 feet, compared with Sunday afternoon. The freezing level was at the surface. Transport wind had turned north-northeasterly with the air mass rapidly drying out. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed the modified Arctic front near the southern Oregon border. Some snow flurries were being reported along the frontal boundary, in the Klamath Falls area. Satellite imagery showed clearing skies, in the cold and drier air, north of the front. Temperatures were quite cold this morning across the state. Most of central and eastern Oregon was below 20 degrees, with Redmond dropping down to at least 2 degrees and Hermiston dipping to 2 degrees below zero. Brisk northwesterly winds, combined with temperatures in the teens, dropped wind-chill values below zero from La Grande to Baker City, in northeastern Oregon. Clear skies allowed temperatures to drop into the mid and upper 20s in the Willamette Valley, with northerly winds, around 10 mph, dropping wind-chill temperatures to about 15 degrees. Cascade pass temperatures were about 10 degrees with a fresh layer of snow on the roadways. An upper-level ridge of high pressure will build over the region today with the flow aloft remaining dry and northerly. That will allow for a full day of sunshine across western Oregon and clearing skies east of the Cascades. Brisk northerly winds should hold Willamette Valley temperatures below 40 degrees today with highs on the coast in the low to mid 40s. Temperatures will remain below freezing east of the Cascades. Infrared satellite imagery showed a weather weather system moving onto the northern British Columbia coastline this morning. Some high clouds will being to increase across Washington and northern Oregon by this evening. Willamette Valley temperatures should easily fall well into the 20s by Tuesday morning, with increasing clouds. Surface Winds: NNE 5-15 this morning, NNE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 13 this morning, NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 1500 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 39. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:37am. Extended Outlook: Computer models forecast precipitation to move into western Washington early Tuesday morning and spread south into northwestern Oregon by late Tuesday morning. The air mass will initially be cold enough for the precipitation to begin as snow, even at very low elevations, before southerly winds lift the snow level to around 2-3000 feet during the afternoon. No significant snow accumulations are likely, in the Willamette Valley, before the transition to rain occurs Tuesday afternoon. Cold air will last longer in the Columbia Gorge, where a couple of inches of snow is possible on Tuesday, before temperatures moderate and turn the precipitation there to rain. Rain will taper off to a few showers Tuesday night, along the coast and across the Willamette Valley, with snow in the mountains above 4000 feet. Overnight temperatures will be much warmer and should stay well above freezing. A few showers may linger into Wednesday, as high pressure builds back over the region. Warmer air near the surface and cool air aloft should improve ventilation conditions across the valley. Thursday looks dry, with areas of morning fog, as a strong upper-level ridge builds over the region. Warmer air aloft will deteriorate ventilation conditions. A weak weather system is forecast to flatten the upper-level ridge, as it brushes the region Friday. It may be strong enough to bring some light rain to the extreme northern portions of the statepass. Snow levels will remain near 4000 feet. The long-range models have not been consistent beyond Friday, but there is some indication that the upper-level ridge will rebuild over the region enough to keep the weather dry over the weekend for most of the state. There could be some sprinkles or very light rain near the northern border. Monday now appears dry, but that is getting beyond my current range of confidence. Tomorrow (27 Jan): Light Rain or Snow Developing...Turning to Rain. 22/44 Wed (28 Jan): Partly Cloudy. 36/46 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 34/47 Fri (30 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 35/50 Sat (31 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles or Light Rain...Mainly North. 35/48 Sun (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles or Light Rain...Mainly North. 36/50 Mon (02 Feb): Partly Sunny. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 27 08:59:00 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2009 10:59:00 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold and dry Arctic air mass moved into Washington and Oregon over the weekend and remained over the region this morning. A Pacific weather system, in northwesterly flow aloft, brought increasing clouds overnight. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped well into the 20s last night, before the clouds, and increasing southerly winds helped raise temperaures to near or slighty above freezing by mid-morning. Precipitation moved into western Washington early this morning and had spread south, into extreme northwestern Oregon, by daybreak. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable warming, compared with Monday morning, below 25,000 feet. However, the air mass is still cold and very dry, so precipitation was falling mainly in the form of snow across western Washington and northwestern Oregon, except along the immediate coastline. The light snow had spread south to about Salem by mid-morning. As the air mass continues to moderate, the snow will change to rain this afternoon. There may be areas of sleet and/or freezing rain during the transition, especially in the extreme north valley. Enough warming will likely occur, south of about Corvallis, for precipitation to begin as rain or mixed rain and snow later this morning. The low-level cold air mass will persist longer in and near the Columbia Gorge and areas east of the Cascades. The National Weather Service has issues a Winter Weather Advisory for the northern and Central Willamette Valley, until around midday, for morning snow changing to a wintry mix and eventually to rain. The greatest potential for valley snow and ice is in the Portland area, where 1-2 inches could accumulate. Several inches of snow are possible in the Columbia Gorge, along with possible sleet and freezing rain, where cold easterly outflow will likely keep low-level cold air in place until later this afternoon. A little rain and snow is likely across central and eastern Oregon beginning later this morning, but increasing southerly winds will moderate temperatures enough for the lowest elevations to changeover to rain this afternoon. Since the incoming low-pressure area will track across southern British Columbia, increasing southerly winds will lift the snow level to around 2-3000 feet this afternoon across western Washington and Oregon. That will also create ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. Rain will taper off to a few showers Tonight across western Oregon. The snow level will be about 2500 feet in northern Oregon and 4000 feet south. Temperatures should stay above freezing west of the Cascades. Surface Winds: S 10-20 this morning, SSW 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 25 this morning, SSW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:14pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:36am. Extended Outlook: A few showers may linger into Wednesday, as high pressure builds back over the region. Warmer air near the surface and cool air aloft should maintain good ventilation conditions across the valley. Light winds and clearing skies should allow valley temperatures to drop close to freezing Wednesday night with areas of fog forming. As a strong upper-level ridge builds over the region Thursday, warmer air aloft will deteriorate ventilation conditions. Valley high temperatures will vary, depending on the local extent of fog. A weak weather system is forecast to flatten the upper-level ridge, as it brushes the region Friday. It may be strong enough to bring some light rain to the northern portions of the state, including the Willamette Valley. Snow levels will drop to near 4000 feet with improved ventilation conditions. A few showers may linger into Saturday with the snow level dropping below the Cascade passes. The long-range models show the persistently strong upper-level ridge rebuilding over the region early next week. However, it may not be strong enough to prevent some sprinkles or very light rain over the northern third of the state. Tomorrow (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. 36/46 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 32/45 Fri (30 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 33/48 Sat (31 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/46 Sun (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles or Light Rain...Mainly North. 33/48 Mon (02 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 36/50 Tue (03 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jan 27 12:12:51 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 27 Jan 2009 14:12:51 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next update not scheduled until Monday, February 2nd, 2009 at 9am... Issued: Tuesday, January 27th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 3:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 3:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold and dry Arctic air mass moved into Washington and Oregon over the weekend and remained over the region this morning. A Pacific weather system, in northwesterly flow aloft, brought increasing clouds overnight. Willamette Valley temperatures dropped well into the 20s last night, before the clouds, and increasing southerly winds helped raise temperaures to near or slighty above freezing by mid-morning. Precipitation moved into western Washington early this morning spread south, across northwestern Oregon, during the morning. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable warming, compared with Monday morning, below 25,000 feet. However, the air mass was still cold enough for precipitation to begin mainly in the form of snow, north of about Salem in the Willamette Valley As the air mass continued to moderate, the snow changed to rain south of the immediate Portland area by late this morning. Midday valley temperatures ranged from near freezing, in Portland, to the upper 30s in Eugene. The low-level cold air mass could persist for a couple of more hours in the Portland area and most of the afternoon in the Columbia Gorge and areas east of the Cascades. The National Weather Service has a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the extreme northern Willamette Valley until 2 pm, but the advisory for the central Willamette Valley was allowed to expire at noon. Some areas, from about Salem north, managed to get a light snow cover, before precipitation changed to rain. The greatest valley snowfall was in the Portland area, where locally around an inch fell. Several inches of snow are possible in the Columbia Gorge today, along with sleet and freezing rain, due to cold easterly outflow keeping the low-level cold air in place there until later this afternoon. A little rain and snow is likely across central and eastern Oregon this afternoon, but increasing southerly winds will moderate temperatures there enough for the lowest elevations to changeover to rain by late this afternoon. Since the low-pressure center is tracking across southern British Columbia, increasing southerly winds, gusting to near 30 mph across western Oregon, are in the process of lifting the snow level to around 2-3000 feet. That has greatly improved ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. Valley temperatures will slowly continue to rise this afternoon, with most areas making it into the low to mid 40s. The rain will taper off to a few showers tonight across western Oregon. The snow level will be about 2500 feet in northern Oregon and 4000 feet south. Temperatures should stay above freezing west of the Cascades overnight. Surface Winds: SSW 10-20 Gusts to near 30 mph this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2500 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 5:14pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:36am. Extended Outlook: A few showers may linger into Wednesday, as high pressure builds back over the region. Warmer air near the surface and cool air aloft should maintain good ventilation conditions across the valley. Light winds and clearing skies should allow valley temperatures to drop close to freezing Wednesday night with areas of fog forming. As a strong upper-level ridge builds over the region Thursday, warmer air aloft will deteriorate ventilation conditions. Valley high temperatures will vary, depending on the local extent of fog. A weak weather system is forecast to flatten the upper-level ridge, as it brushes the region Friday. It may be strong enough to bring some light rain to the northern portions of the state, including the Willamette Valley. Snow levels will drop to near 4000 feet with improved ventilation conditions. A few showers may linger into Saturday with the snow level dropping below the Cascade passes. The long-range models show the persistently strong upper-level ridge rebuilding over the region early next week. However, it may not be strong enough to prevent some sprinkles or very light rain over the northern third of the state. Tomorrow (28 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Decreasing Chance of Showers. 35/46 Thu (29 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Partly Sunny. 32/45 Fri (30 Jan): Areas of AM Fog. Increasing Clouds. Chance of Light Rain. 33/48 Sat (31 Jan): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 34/46 Sun (01 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles or Light Rain...Mainly North. 33/48 Mon (02 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Rain...Mainly North. 36/50 Tue (03 Feb): Mostly Cloudy. 36/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us