From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jun 1 09:20:01 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 01 Jun 2009 11:20:01 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, June 1st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, June 1st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: An upper-level trough, centered about 900 miles west of the northern California Coastline, is continuing to produce a warm southerly flow aloft over Oregon. Moisture is also streaming northward, over Oregon, from northern California, and will combine with daytime heating to trigger scattered afternoon and evening thundershowers over mainly the southern two-thirds of the state. Moisture may shift far enough north to bring thundershowers into the Willamette Valley today. It was another warm one on Sunday with highs in the 80s across the interior valleys of western Oregon. Coastal temperatures were much cooler, with highs in the upper 50s and 60s. Satellite imagery showed considerable cloudiness over Oregon this morning, left over from the showers and thundershowers that developed over mainly southern and eastern Oregon on Sunday. Doppler radar was indicating that some showers continued overnight near the Idaho border and in southwestern Oregon. Mostly cloudy skies held overnight temperatures in the 50s across western Oregon. Mid-monring temperatures were near 60 across the Willamette Valley. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed very weak onshore gradients across western Oregon with a weak thermal trough extending from northeastern to southwestern Oregon. Onshore flow was strong enough to bring marine clouds into the coast, with little in the way of low clouds making into the Willamette Valley this morning. Skies will be partly to mostly cloudy today across Oregon today. Daytime heating will act on the moist and unstable air mass to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms...possibly extending north and west into the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will vary considerably, depending on the extent of local cloud-cover but should top out in the 80-85 degree range across the valley. Surface Winds: Var 3-7 this morning, NNW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 4 this morning, NNW 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 21. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 82. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 37%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:52pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:28am. Extended Outlook: Little change in the weather pattern is forecast Tuesday, with an increasing chance of afternoon and evening thundershowers. Temperatures may cool a few degrees due to increasing amounts of cloud-cover. The moist and unstable southerly flow aloft will begin to shift further south Wednesday and Thursday, as the parent upper-level low-pressure area drifts south to off the southern California Coast. A much drier and more stable northerly flow will begin to spread south, across Oregon, Friday and Satruday, as the upper-level trough moves inland and eventually into Nevada. Increasing onshore flow will begin to cool temperatures across western Oregon. A dry northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for early next week, with morning clouds and afternoon sunshine, along with seasonal temperatures. Tomorrow (02 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Chance of PM T-Storms. 55/79 Wed (03 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance PM T-Storm...Mainly South. 56/83 Thu (04 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance PM T-Storm...Mainly South. 56/82 Fri (05 Jun): Partly Cloudy and Cooler. 54/77 Sat (06 Jun): AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny. 51/74 Sun (07 Jun): AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny. 51/75 Mon (08 Jun): AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny. 50/74 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jun 2 09:10:12 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 02 Jun 2009 11:10:12 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, June 2nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is not recommended. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level trough, centered about 700 miles off the central California Coastline, is continuing to produce a warm and humid southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon. Showers and a few thundershowers developed over mainly the southern two-thirds of Oregon Monday, with temperatures continuing well above normal for early June. Most of the rainfall was light Monday, but Redmond, in central Oregon, picked up one-third of an inch. Even under considerable cloud-cover, temperatures climbed into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the interior valleys of western Oregon. Some onshore flow held temperatures along the immediate coastline in the upper 50s and 60s. East of the Cascades, high temperatures Monday ranged from the upper 70s to the middle 90s. The Dalles was the warm spot in the state with a high of 94 degrees. Cloudy skies made for quite mild night across the state. Overnight temperatures, on both sides of the Cascades, stayed mostly in the 50s, with some spots not dropping below 60 degrees. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed a wide band a clouds, circuating around the parent upper-level trough off the California Coast, covering most of Oregon. In addition, for and low clouds covered the coastal strip. Doppler radar showed light embedded shower activity stretching from south-central Oregon, northwestward to just off the northern coast. Light rain was falling in both Klamath Falls and Redmond, with showers reported over extreme northwestern Oregon near Scappoose. Mid-morning temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to mid 60s across most of the state. The Dalles was still the warm spot with a temperature in the low 70s. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed a weak thermal trough centered over the interior of western Oregon with onshore flow only along the immediate coastal strip. Winds in the Willamette Valley were light and variable. The Salem sounding this morning showed northeasterly winds up to about 4000 feet...turning to southeasterly above 9000 feet. There was a small warm layer from 4-5000 feet, which will likely mark the top of the afternoon mixing layer. Light surface winds and north-northeastery transport winds will make for poor ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley today. Mostly cloudy skies will help to hold afternoon temperatures in the mid 70s to lower 80s across the Willamette Valley today, even though the air aloft would support much warm temperatures, if skies were sunny. Even with the cloud-cover, daytime heating will act on the moist and unstable air mass to enhance convective activity this afternoon...likely leading to scattered showers...mainly over the southern two-thirds of the state. The temperature profile of the atmosphere is unstable from about 5000 feet all the way up to 40,000 feet, so any convection that manages to rise above the weak cap at 5000 feet will likely develop into impressive thunderstorms this afternoon...possibly as far north and west as the Willamette Valley. Scattered thundershowers are likely this afternoon and evening over the Cascades and central Oregon. Surface Winds: Var 3-7 this morning, NNE 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 4 this morning, NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4100 feet. Ventilation index 49. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 79. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 41%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:53pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:28am. Extended Outlook: The moist and unstable southeasterly flow aloft will continue Wednesday and then weaken and turn more easterly Thursday, as the upper-level low-pressure area drifts further south to off the southern California Coast. A drier and more stable northeasterly flow will develop, from north to south, across Oregon on Friday, as the upper-level trough moves inland over California. As the trough moves eastward Saturday, to over Nevada, the flow aloft over Oregon will will turn more northerly with the main area of upper-level moisture heading east, into Idaho. Increasing low-level onshore flow will begin to cool temperatures across western Oregon this weekend. A weak upper-level trough is forecast to drop southward, from southern British Columbia, and should induce enough onshore flow to drive marine clouds into much of western Oregon by Sunday morning. The trough may be strong enough to bring some rain to western Oregon Sunday and/or Monday, but that is getting beyond the accuracy range of the long-range computer models. It does appear as if temperatures may drop below normal, for a change, early next week. Tomorrow (03 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance Showers and PM T-Storms...Mainly South. 58/79 Thu (04 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance Showers and PM T-Storms...Mainly South. 56/76 Fri (05 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. 54/74 Sat (06 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. 52/74 Sun (07 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of a Showers. 52/70 Mon (08 Jun): Cloudy. Chance of Rain. 51/67 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jun 3 09:13:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 03 Jun 2009 11:13:10 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Schedule For Thursday, June 4th, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Wednesday, June 3rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Daytime heating combined with a moist and unstable air mass over the region to fuel impressive thunderstorms over the southern half of Oregon Tuesday afternoon and evening. Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rainfall in Lane, Douglas, Josephine, and Jackson Counties, with some CoCoRaHS stations recording over an inch of rainfall from near Eugene to the California border. Strong storms also developed over southeastern Oregon Tuesday evening, with Rome picking up more than two-thirds of an inch of rain. Rainfall was much lighter over the northern half of Oregon. The northern and central Willamette Valley picked up only from a trace to just a couple hundredths of an inch on Tuesday. A broad upper-level low pressure trough, centered about 350 miles off the central California Coastline, was continuing to circulate warm, moist, and unstable air over Oregon at mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed a broad, counterclockwise circulating, band of clouds covering most of Oregon. There were some sunbreaks, on either side of the cloud band, over extreme northeastern and extreme southwestern Oregon. Showers had pretty much dissipated overnight with no weather reporting stations picking up showers at mid-morning. Marine low clouds and fog blanketed the coastline, with some low clouds in the southern Willamette Valley. Cloudy skies kept temperatures extremely mild overnight, with most of the state staying above 50 degrees. Some areas west of the Cascades did not drop below 60. Salem recorded a balmy minimum of 62 degrees. Mid-morning temperatures had already warmed well into the 60s across most of the state. The ODA surface analysis showed a thermal low-pressure trough extending northward across western Oregon with light offshore gradients across all areas except along the immediate coastal strip. Winds in the Willamette Valley were light variable. The Salem sounding this morning showed light winds near the surface with easterly winds from about 2000 to 12,000 feet, and southeasterly winds above 12,000 feet. Northeasterly transport winds are forecast today, which are not conducive to good valley ventilation for stack burning. Some subreaks will help temperatures warm into the upper 70s and low 80s again this afternoon, fueling the development of more showers and thunderstorms. Storms that form over the Cascades will likely drift over the western valleys. The temperature profile of the atmosphere is even more unstable than yesterday, so any convection that manages to rise above the weak cap near 3000 feet will likely develop into impressive thunderstorms this afternoon...likely producing locally heavy rain and hail as far north and west as the Willamette Valley. Scattered strong thundershowers are likely this afternoon and evening over the Cascades and much of central and eastern Oregon. Surface Winds: Var 3-7 this morning, NNE 7-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 5 this morning, NNE 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3600 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 82. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 43%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:53pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The moist and unstable southeasterly flow aloft will turn easterly Thursday, as the parent upper-level low-pressure area begins to come onshore into central and southern California. Showers and afternoon thundershowers will likely be widespread across Oregon, with increased cloud-cover leading to cooler temperatures. The upper-level low-pressure center will move eastward, into nevada, Friday. The flow aloft over Oregon will turn northeasterly Friday, with the main area of mid and upper-level moisture shifting east of the Cascades by Friday afternoon. The flow aloft will turn from northeasterly to northwesterly over the weekend with increasing low-level onshore flow advancing marine low clouds into western Oregon. A series of weak upper-level troughs are forecast, by some of the long-range computer models, to possibly bring some morning drizzle or light showers to northwest Oregon Sunday through Tuesday. That would drop temperatures to slightly below normal. A little stronger trough is forecast to bring a better chance of showers by next Thursday. Continued onshore flow will maintain slightly below normal temperatures. Tomorrow (04 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Showers and PM T-Storms Likely. 59/76 Fri (05 Jun): Decreasing Showers...From NW to SE...Late. 57/74 Sat (06 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Cooler with Onshore Flow. 52/74 Sun (07 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/70 Mon (08 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 51/67 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/69 Wed (10 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/71 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 4 09:19:24 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Jun 2009 11:19:24 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 4th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Scheduled for Friday, June 5th, at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, June 4th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Daytime heating combined with a continued moist and unstable air mass to produce afternoon and evening shower and thundershower activity over much of Oregon Wednesday. Thundershowers extended as far north as Salem, west of the Cascades, and all the way to the Washington border in northeastern Oregon. The showers were decreasing this morning due to cooler surface temperatures, but they were not gone completely. Satellite imagery showed clouds circulating over most of Oregon, around a broad low-pressure area centered about 100 miles off the central California coast. Temperatures were mild, again, overnight, with minimums generally in the 50s and low 60s on both sides of the Cascades. Some areas of light rain were still falling at mid-morning...from northeastern Oregon, across central, to southwestern Oregon. The morning sounding over Salem continued to show very unstable conditions, so daytime heating will enhance the showers across all of Oregon today. Thunderstorms will likely extend northward, to the Washington border, later today. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall and hail. Slight cooling aloft and considerable cloud-cover will hold Willamette Valley highs temperatures near 80 degrees today, after climbing to near 90 in the north valley Wednesday. The surface thermal trough, over western Oregon this morning, is forecast to begin shifting east this afternoon, in response to the upper-level trough moving onshore into california. Transport winds are forecast to turn southwesterly this afternoon, which should improve ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. However, lightning may develop this afternoon, so seek shelter, if you are caught outdoors. Showers and thundershowers may continue through much of the night across western Oregon, with a change to more stable conditions beginning Friday. Surface Winds: SSE 3-7 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSE 5 this morning, SW 10 Gusty near showers and t-Storms this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3200 feet. Ventilation index 32. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 80. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:54pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level low-pressure center will move eastward, across central California, on Friday. The flow aloft over Oregon will turn northeasterly Friday, with the main area of mid and upper-level moisture shifting east of the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Considerable cloud-cover, possible showers, and increasing onshore flow will significantly cool temperatures west of the Cascades. The flow aloft will turn from northeasterly to northwesterly Saturday with onshore flow at the surface bringing marine low clouds into the western valleys and stabilizing the air mass. The marine layer may become enhanced enough for drizzle or light showers across northwestern Oregon...especially over the north coast range and along the coastal strip. A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to keep things dry Sunday and Monday, with a series of weak upper-level troughs are possibly bringing some morning drizzle or light showers to northwest Oregon around the middle of next week. Temperatures may climb slightly above normal Sunday and Monday, before dropping back below normal around the middle of next week. Tomorrow (05 Jun): Decreasing Showers...From NW to SE...Late. 57/71 Sat (06 Jun): Cloudy AM...Slight Chance of Drizzle. Partly Sunny PM. 52/70 Sun (07 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. 52/73 Mon (08 Jun): Partly Sunny. 52/75 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/69 Wed (10 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Showers. 50/68 Thu (11 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/71 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 4 12:11:47 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 04 Jun 2009 14:11:47 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 4th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Scheduled for Friday, June 5th, at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, June 4th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Daytime heating combined with a continued moist and unstable air mass to produce afternoon and evening shower and thundershower activity over much of Oregon Wednesday. Thundershowers extended as far north as Salem, west of the Cascades, and all the way to the Washington border in northeastern Oregon. The thundershowers had ended across the state by mid-morning, but some lighter showers were continuing even late this morning on both sides of the Cascades. Late-morning satellite imagery showed one fairly wide cloud-band extending from extreme northwest Oregon across the southern half of Washington and extreme northern Oregon. Considerable clouds also covered most of western Oregon. A much drier air mass was resulting in sunny skies over northern Washington, but Oregon was still under the influence of a warm, moist, and very unstable flow of air circulating northward around an upper-level low-pressure area centered just off the central California coast. Some sunshine had locally warmed surface temperatures in portions of central and eastern Oregon, like Pendleton, to near 80 degrees late this morning, while areas of clouds and showers were holding much of south-central Oregon in the mid 50s. Cloudy skies and weak onshore flow were keeping coastal temperatures in the upper 50s and lower 60s late this morning. However, varying amounts of cloud-cover across the interior of western Oregon, was resulting in a wide range of late-morning temperatures. Sections of the Willamette Valley had already warmed into low low 70s, but heavier cloud-cover over southwestern Oregon was holding temperatures in the low to mid 60s. The morning sounding over Salem continued to show very unstable air aloft, so daytime heating will quickly reactivate convective cloud development across all of Oregon today. Thunderstorms will likely extend northward, to near the Washington border, later today. Some of the storms could produce locally heavy rainfall or even some hail. Considerable cloud-cover will hold southern Willamette Valley high temperatures near 80 degrees today. the north valley should climb into the low to mid 80s, which will still be about 5 degrees cooler than on Wednesday. The surface thermal trough, over western Oregon late this morning, is forecast to begin shifting east this afternoon, in response to the upper-level trough moving onshore into California. Transport winds are forecast to turn southwesterly this afternoon, which should improve ventilation conditions over the Willamette Valley. However, it is important that you keep an eye on the sky this afternoon and seek shelter, if thundershowers move into your region. Showers and thunderstorms may continue through much of the night, across western Oregon, with a change to more stable conditions beginning Friday. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 10 gusty near showers and t-Storms this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3200 feet. Ventilation index 32. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 80. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:54pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level low-pressure center will move eastward, across central California, on Friday. The flow aloft over Oregon will turn northeasterly Friday, with the main area of mid and upper-level moisture shifting east of the Cascades by Friday afternoon. Considerable cloud-cover, possible showers, and increasing onshore flow will significantly cool temperatures west of the Cascades. The flow aloft will turn from northeasterly to northwesterly Saturday with onshore flow at the surface bringing marine low clouds into the western valleys and stabilizing the air mass. The marine layer may become enhanced enough for drizzle or light showers across northwestern Oregon...especially over the north coast range and along the coastal strip. A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to keep things dry Sunday and Monday, with a series of weak upper-level troughs are possibly bringing some morning drizzle or light showers to northwest Oregon around the middle of next week. Temperatures may climb slightly above normal Sunday and Monday, before dropping back below normal around the middle of next week. Tomorrow (05 Jun): Decreasing Showers...From NW to SE...Late. 57/71 Sat (06 Jun): Cloudy AM...Slight Chance of Drizzle. Partly Sunny PM. 52/70 Sun (07 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. 52/73 Mon (08 Jun): Partly Sunny. 52/75 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/69 Wed (10 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Light Showers. 50/68 Thu (11 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/71 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 5 09:17:41 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Jun 2009 11:17:41 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 5th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 5th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: The broad upper-level low-pressure area that has been centered off the California coastline for the past several days moved close enough to spin a spoke of upper-level energy northward across Oregon Thursday afternoon. That acted on the already moist and unstable air mass to produce a line of locally severe thunderstorms. The timing of that system added to the severity of the storms, since it came through at the warmest, and most unstable, time of the day. The storms first developed just after midday along an arc from north of Roseburg to Bend, to southeastern Oregon and gained strength as they moved north and west, across Oregon, Thursday afternoon and evening. The thudershowers swept northward as far as southern Washington, before running into a more stable northeasterly flow aloft. There were numerous reports of heavy rainfall, hail, strong winds (60-80 mph) and even possible weak tornadic development with these storms. The storms generally dumped between one-half and three-quarters of an inch of rain over much of the Willamette Valley in just a couple of hours Thursday afternoon. Sections of central and eastern Oregon also got blasted by the storms. Pendleton picked up almost an inch of rain Thursday evening along with strong and gusty winds. The thundershowers had ended across the state by this morning but some showers were continuing...mainly over northwestern and southeastern Oregon. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed extensive cloud-cover over western Oregon and across south-central and southeastern Oregon. Skies were mostly clear across north-central and northeastern Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building into the central and southern coast with onshore flow into a thermal trough now extending from northeastern Nevada into southern Idaho. The sounding over Salem this morning showed considerable low-level cooling of the air mass, which will make for more stable conditions west of the Cascades today. The middle and upper levels of the air mass were still unstable, so the threat of afternoon thundershower development remains high today east of the Cascades. Some of those stroms could, once again, produce locally heavy rain, strong gusty winds, and hail. Onshore low-level flow and a continued moist mid-level northeasterly flow will keep skies mostly cloudy over western Oregon today with showers slowly tapering off by this evening. Temperatures are cooler this morning with mid-morning readings were mostly in the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon. It will be about 10 degrees across western Oregon today, with Willamette Valley highs only in the low 70s...that is about average for early June. Transport winds are forecast to be southwesterly and eventually westerly today, which will make for good ventilation over the valley. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 8 this morning, WSW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3800 feet. Ventilation index 38. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:55pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The flow aloft will turn from northeasterly to northwesterly Saturday, as the upper-lever low-pressure system over California shifts eastward to over Nevada. Increasing onshore surface flow will drive marine low clouds into the western valleys and further stabilize the air mass. The marine layer may become enhanced enough for drizzle or light showers across northwestern Oregon...especially over the north coast range and along the coastal strip. A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to keep things dry Sunday and Monday, although continued onshore flow will maintain considerable morning cloudiness across western Oregon. A couple of weak upper-level troughs will possibly produce some morning drizzle or light showers across northwest Oregon Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week, followed by another weak transitory ridge. Temperatures will likely be near-normal through next week. Tomorrow (06 Jun): Cloudy AM...Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. Partly Sunny PM. 52/70 Sun (07 Jun): Partly to Mostly Cloudy. 52/73 Mon (08 Jun): Partly Sunny after Morning Clouds. 52/75 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/69 Wed (10 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Morning Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/68 Thu (11 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/71 Fri (12 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/74 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 5 12:11:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 05 Jun 2009 14:11:10 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 5th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 Issued: Friday, June 5th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: The broad upper-level low-pressure area that has been centered off the California coastline for the past several days moved close enough to spin a spoke of upper-level energy northward across Oregon Thursday afternoon. That acted on the already moist and unstable air mass to produce a line of locally severe thunderstorms. The timing of that system added to the severity of the storms...passing over the region during the warmest, and most unstable, time of the day. The storms first developed just after midday along an arc from north of Roseburg, to Bend, to southeastern Oregon and gained strength as they moved north and west. The thudershowers swept northward, on both sides of the Cascades, into southern Washington, before running into a more stable air. There were numerous reports of heavy rainfall, hail, strong winds (60-80 mph) and even possible weak tornadic development with these storms. The storms generally dumped between one-half and three-quarters of an inch of rain over much of the Willamette Valley, in just a couple of hours. Sections of central and eastern Oregon also got blasted by the storms. Pendleton picked up almost an inch of rain Thursday evening along with strong and gusty winds. The thundershowers had ended across the state by this morning but some showers were continuing...mainly over northwestern and southeastern Oregon. Late-morning satellite imagery showed one band of clouds over northwest Oregon and another over south-central Oregon. Both areas of clouds were rotating around the parent low-pressure center, curently over central California. Doppler radar showed scattered showers embedded in both areas of clouds. Skies were sunny this morning over northeastern Oregon, but daytime heating was already helping showers develop in the unstable air mass still over that region. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building into the central and southern coast. Onshore flow was spreading across the state, into a thermal trough that was near the Idaho border. The morning sounding over Salem showed considerable low-level cooling, which has acted to stabilize the air mass somewhat over western Oregon. The mid-levels of the air mass were still unstable, so daytime heating will act to enhance the showers again this afternoon. Thunderstorms will likely stay confined to areas east of the Cascades, where they will produce locally heavy rainfall, hail, and strong gusty winds. It is still possible that a thunderstorm or two could develop west of the Cascades, but severe storms are unlikely for western Oregon today. Onshore low-level flow and a continued moist mid-level northeasterly flow will keep skies mostly cloudy over western Oregon today with showers slowly tapering off by this evening. Temperatures are cooler this morning with late-morning readings were mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s across western Oregon. It will be at least 10 degrees cooler across western Oregon today, with Willamette Valley highs only in the upper 60s and low 70s. Temperatures were already in the 70s across eastern Oregon at midday, where daytime heating will help to fuel possible strong thunderstorm development this afternoon. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 30. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 68. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 65%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:55pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The flow aloft will turn from northeasterly to northwesterly Saturday, as the upper-lever low-pressure system over California shifts eastward to over Nevada. Increasing onshore surface flow will drive marine low clouds into the western valleys and further stabilize the air mass. The marine layer may become enhanced enough for drizzle or light showers across northwestern Oregon...especially over the north coast range and along the coastal strip. A transitory weak upper-level ridge is forecast to keep things dry Sunday and Monday, although continued onshore flow will maintain considerable morning cloudiness across western Oregon. A couple of weak upper-level troughs will possibly produce some morning drizzle or light showers across northwest Oregon Tuesday and/or Wednesday of next week, followed by another weak transitory ridge. Temperatures will likely be near-normal through next week. Tomorrow (06 Jun): Cloudy AM...Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. Partly Sunny PM. 52/69 Sun (07 Jun): Morning Clouds...Afternoon Clearing. 50/73 Mon (08 Jun): Partly Sunny after Morning Clouds. 52/75 Tue (09 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/69 Wed (10 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Morning Drizzle or Light Showers. 50/68 Thu (11 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/71 Fri (12 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/74 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jun 9 09:08:24 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 09 Jun 2009 11:08:24 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, June 9th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 1:00pm until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 1:00pm until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: The weather pattern is transitioning from a cool and stable northwesterly flow aloft to a slightly warmer and more unstable southwesterly flow aloft this morning. A weak upper-level trough was approaching the coastline, with satellite and surface reports showing middle and high clouds spreading across most of Oregon. The early morning sounding over Salem showed the upper-level winds had become southwesterly with the temperature profile becoming slightly more unstable than on Monday. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed a trough extending from southwestern Oregon to north-central and northwestern Oregon. Weak onshore flow brought marine clouds into the coastline and the central and southern Willamette Valley overnight, but the extreme north valley was mostly sunny at mid-morning. Skies were also starting to clear along the north coast. Mainly just middle and high clouds extended east of the Cascades. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the 50s across western Oregon with 50s and low 60s east of the Cascades. With the approaching upper-level trough continuing to back the upper-level winds today, from southwesterly to more southeasterly, daytime heating will likely help to make the atmosphere unstable enough for scattered shower and thundershower development...mainly over the Cascades and central Oregon. It is possible that some showers and/or t-storms could also develop or move over the western valleys. Temperatures will warm into the low to mid 70s this afternoon across the Willamette Valley with continued weak onshore flow. Surface Winds: S 3-6 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 3 this morning, WSW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4500 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:57pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:26am. Extended Outlook: Another weak upper-level trough will continue the threat of afternoon showers or t-storms Wednesday...mainly from the Cascades eastward. A more westerly flow aloft may shift the instability east of the Willamette Valley Thursday. However, the flow aloft is forecast to become southerly again by Friday, with an increasing chance of mainly afternoon and evening showers and t-storms across the entire state. Temperatures will likely stay near-normal through the week. Tomorrow (10 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of PM Showers or T-Storms. 53/71 Thu (11 Jun): Morning Clouds. Afternoon Clearing. 51/74 Fri (12 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of PM Showers or T-Storms...Mainly South. 54/73 Sat (13 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance T-Storm. 52/72 Sun (14 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 51/72 Mon (15 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 51/72 Tue (16 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Partly Sunny. 50/74 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jun 10 09:07:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 10 Jun 2009 11:07:50 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Thursday, June 11th, at 9:00am... Issued: Wednesday, June 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Western North America is under a split-flow jet stream pattern, with one branch of strong winds aloft being directed over the top of a ridge of high pressure, in the northern Gulf of Alaska, and then diving southeastward into Montana. A weaker southern branch is undercutting the Gulf of Alaska Ridge and sending weak upper-level troughs into the the west coast of the United States. An upper-level trough approached the central and southern Oregon coastline Tuesday, triggering the development of mumerous afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms across Oregon. The storms were slow-moving, due to farily light winds aloft, and produced locally heavy rainfall. Burns received over one-half inch of rain Tuesday evening with up to three-quarters of an inch reported near Bend, in central Oregon. Low-level onshore flow, into western Oregon, helped to keep shower and thunderstorm development confined mainly from the Cascades eastward Tuesday. However, some of the showers continued through the night, with southeasterly flow aloft bringing them northwestward over the northern Willamette Valley this morning. Some sprinkles fell this morning as far south as Salem with light rain reported in McMinnville, Aurora, and Hillsboro. Satellite imagery showed generally cloudy skies over all of Oregon at mid-morning. Doppler radar showed a band of light rain stretching from near Redmond, in central Oregon, northwestward to over the northern Willamette Valley. The areas of rain were decreasing in intensity, with the cool morning air helping to stabilize the atmosphere. The ODA surface analysis showed the thermal trough had shifted eastward, into Idaho, with low-level onshore flow now extending across most of Oregon. That will slightly stabilize the air mass over Oregon today, with the strongest afternoon shower and thundershower development shifting east of the state. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon, under cloudy skies. Light rain was still falling over parts of the extreme northern Willamette Valley. Skies were partly to mostly cloudy over central and eastern Oregon with temperatures ranging from the low 50s, with light rain in Redmond, to the mid 60s in Hermiston and Ontario. With a weak upper-level trough maintaining southerly to southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon today, daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass enough for some showers to develop...mainly from the Cascades eastward. There may also be a few thunderstorms. Southeasterly flow aloft could swing some showers northwestward into the Willamette Valley tonight, much like last night. Continued onshore flow will keep skies mostly cloudy today west of the Cascades with Willamette Valley high temperatures only climbing to near or slightly below normal. Surface Winds: S 3-6 this morning, SW 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 5 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 70. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:58pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: Little change in the weather pattern is expected through this week with a series of weak upper-level troughs continuing to bring mostly cloudy skies to western Oregon with a chance of showers and even a slight chance of thundershowers. A weak ridge should bring some drying early next week. Onshore flow will hold temperatures near or slightly below normal across western Oregon through at least Sunday with some warming early next week. Tomorrow (11 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Light Showers. 52/70 Fri (12 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance of T-Storms. 53/71 Sat (13 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance T-Storms. 52/70 Sun (14 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/71 Mon (15 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Partly Sunny. 50/74 Tue (16 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Mostly Sunny. 50/75 Wed (17 Jun): Mostly Sunny. 50/77 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 11 09:14:16 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Jun 2009 11:14:16 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Western North America remains under a split-flow jet stream pattern this morning, with one branch of stronger winds aloft diving southeastward, from northern Alaska, into eastern Montana. Another, southern, branch is cutting across the Pacific Ocean and sending weak upper-level troughs into the the west coast of the United States. Daytime heating on Wednesday helped destabilize the atmosphere, with shower activity developing, once again, across much of Oregon...mainly over southern Oregon and from the Cascades eastward. The showers continued overnight,and southeasterly flow aloft carried the showers northwestward, into the Willamette Valley, this morning. An upper-level trough was centered over extreme southwestern Oregon this morning and bringing cloudy skies to most of the state. The main exception was a pronounced area of mostly clear skies extending from extreme north-central Oregon to the northeastern tip of Oregon. That region, along with eastern Washington, was getting a drier northeasterly flow aloft, in response to the northern branch of the jet stream cutting into Montana. Doppler radar showed a line of showers extending northwestward, from central Oregon near Bend, across the Cascades and into the central Willamette Valley, to just north of Newport along the coast. Salem received just under one-tenth of an inch of rain this morning, but points not far to the north and south of Salem stayed dry. The heaviest rainfall totals have been over southern Oregon during the past 24 hours. Over one-quarter of an inch fell from Medford to Lakeview, with Burns getting over a tenth of an inch. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across western Oregon, which will keep temperatures near to slightly below normal again today. It will also keep the atmosphere stable enough so that showers will not likely develop into thunderstorms west of the Cascades this afternoon. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon, under cloudy skies. Light rain was still falling over parts of the central Willamette Valley, but radar was showing a general decrease in the shower activity. Temperatures east of the Cascades ranged from near 50 in Klamath Falls, under cloudy skies, to the mid 60s, with sunshine, in Hermiston. With a weak upper-level trough maintaining southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon today, daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass enough for some showers to develop...mainly over southern and eastern Oregon. There may also be a few thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward. Southeasterly flow aloft could swing some showers northwestward, into the Willamette Valley, again tonight, much like the past two nights. Surface Winds: Var 3-6 this morning, W 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 4 this morning, NW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 34. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 70. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:59pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: Little change in the weather pattern is expected through this weekend with a series of weak upper-level troughs continuing to bring mostly cloudy skies to western Oregon with a chance of showers and even a slight chance of thundershowers. A weak ridge should bring some drying early next week, but another trough is forecast to renew the shower threat by mid-week. Onshore flow will hold temperatures to near or slightly below normal across western Oregon through at least Sunday, with temperatures warming to near normal Monday and Tuesday. Tomorrow (12 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance of T-Storms. 55/72 Sat (13 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance T-Storms. 55/72 Sun (14 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/71 Mon (15 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Partly Sunny. 50/74 Tue (16 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Mostly Sunny. 50/75 Wed (17 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/70 Thu (18 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 53/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 11 11:58:46 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 11 Jun 2009 13:58:46 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Tuesday, June 16th, at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, June 11th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Western North America remains under a split-flow jet stream pattern, with one branch of stronger winds aloft diving southeastward, from northern Alaska, into eastern Montana. Another branch of the the stream is cutting across the Pacific Ocean and sending weak upper-level troughs into the the west coast of the United States. Daytime heating has been acting on the moist and somewhat unstable air mass to generate showers and a few thundershowers each of the past couple of afternoons. Most of the shower activity has been over southern and eastern Oregon, with some of the slow-moving showers producing locally heavy rainfall and street flooding...especially in central Oregon. The showers have continued overnight, the past two nights, with southeasterly flow aloft directing the showers northwestward, across the Cascades and into the Willamette Valley. Salem picked up almost a tenth of an inch of rain this morning, while areas not far to the north and south of Salem remained dry. An upper-level trough was centered over extreme southwestern Oregon late this morning and bringing cloudy skies to most of the state. The main exception was a pronounced area of mostly clear skies extending from extreme north-central Oregon to the northeastern tip of Oregon. That region, along with eastern Washington, was getting a drier northeasterly flow aloft, in response to the northern branch of the jet stream cutting into Montana. Late-morning Doppler radar showed showers building, once again, across much of the southern two-thirds of central and eastern Oregon, while the morning shower activity over the central Willamette Valley dissipated. The ODA surface analysis showed weak onshore flow across western Oregon, which will keep skies mostly cloudy and temperatures near to slightly below normal again today. Late-morning temperatures were mostly in the low to mid 60s across western Oregon, under cloudy skies. Temperatures east of the Cascades ranged from the cloudy low 50s in south-central Oregon to the low 70s, under sunny skies, in Pendleton and Hermiston. With a weak upper-level trough maintaining southeasterly flow aloft over Oregon today, daytime heating will, once again, destabilize the air mass enough for some showers to develop...mainly over southern and eastern Oregon. There may also be a few thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward. Southeasterly flow aloft could swing some showers northwestward, into the Willamette Valley, again tonight, much like the past two nights. Surface Winds: Becoming W 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Becoming NW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 34. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 70. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 59%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:59pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: Little change in the weather pattern is expected through this weekend with a series of weak upper-level troughs continuing to bring mostly cloudy skies to western Oregon with a chance of showers and even a slight chance of thundershowers. A weak ridge should bring some drying early next week, but another trough is forecast to renew the shower threat by mid-week. Onshore flow will hold temperatures to near or slightly below normal across western Oregon through at least Sunday, with temperatures warming to near normal Monday and Tuesday. Tomorrow (12 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance of T-Storms. 55/72 Sat (13 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Slight Chance T-Storms. 55/72 Sun (14 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/71 Mon (15 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Partly Sunny. 50/74 Tue (16 Jun): Morning Clouds. Becoming Mostly Sunny. 50/75 Wed (17 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/70 Thu (18 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 53/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jun 16 09:13:18 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 16 Jun 2009 11:13:18 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, June 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, June 16th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 2:00pm until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Western North America remains under a split-flow jet stream pattern this morning, with the northern branch cutting across British Columbia and the southern branch directed at southern California. A frontal system, about 300 miles off the Oregon Coast, was encountering the split in the jet stream and weakening. Satellite imagery showed middle and high clouds had advanced across the western half of both Washington and Oregon. In addition, low clouds and fog had moved into the central and southern Oregon Coast. Skies were mostly clear over eastern Washington, eastern Oregon and Idaho. Doppler radar was not showing any precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed a weak trough extending from eastern Washington to southwestern Oregon. Pressure gradients were weak over western Oregon and winds were generally less than 5 mph. Temperatures were mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s across Western Oregon and ranged from the upper 50s to upper 60s east of the Cascades. As a weak weather system approches the coastline today, considerable middle and high clouds will continue to spread across western Oregon. Onshore flow will increase this afternoon with weak westerly transport winds developing. High temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s across the Willamette Valley. The weather system will move onshore this evening and could produce a sprinkle or two overnight. Cloudy skies will keep overnight temperatures from dropping below about 50-55 degrees in the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: Var 3-6 this morning, W 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 6 this morning, WNW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 34. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: Slightly stronger onshore flow will cool temperatures a few degrees Wednesday, even with a drier northwestery flow aloft leading to some afternoon sunbreaks. A weak ridge will build over the region Thursday for warming temperatures. Weak onshore flow will maintain some morning cloudiness across western Oregon and keep temperatures from getting too much above normal. Another weak weather system is forecast to move onshore Friday, with more middle and high clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. A stronger upper-level trough is forecast by all of the long-range computer models to move onshore this weekend. it may be strong enough to bring some showers to the region...especially by Sunday. Tomorrow (17 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Clearing Late. 55/75 Thu (18 Jun): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 55/80 Fri (19 Jun): Increasing Middle and High Clouds. 54/77 Sat (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers. 51/75 Sun (21 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 51/71 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/73 Tue (23 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jun 17 10:10:17 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:10:17 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, June 16th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 2:00pm until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: Western North America remains under a split-flow jet stream pattern this morning, with the northern branch cutting across British Columbia and the southern branch directed at southern California. A frontal system, about 300 miles off the Oregon Coast, was encountering the split in the jet stream and weakening. Satellite imagery showed middle and high clouds had advanced across the western half of both Washington and Oregon. In addition, low clouds and fog had moved into the central and southern Oregon Coast. Skies were mostly clear over eastern Washington, eastern Oregon and Idaho. Doppler radar was not showing any precipitation across the Pacific Northwest. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed a weak trough extending from eastern Washington to southwestern Oregon. Pressure gradients were weak over western Oregon and winds were generally less than 5 mph. Temperatures were mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s across Western Oregon and ranged from the upper 50s to upper 60s east of the Cascades. As a weak weather system approches the coastline today, considerable middle and high clouds will continue to spread across western Oregon. Onshore flow will increase this afternoon with weak westerly transport winds developing. High temperatures should climb into the mid to upper 70s across the Willamette Valley. The weather system will move onshore this evening and could produce a sprinkle or two overnight. Cloudy skies will keep overnight temperatures from dropping below about 50-55 degrees in the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: Var 3-6 this morning, W 5-10 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 6 this morning, WNW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 34. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 77. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: Slightly stronger onshore flow will cool temperatures a few degrees Wednesday, even with a drier northwestery flow aloft leading to some afternoon sunbreaks. A weak ridge will build over the region Thursday for warming temperatures. Weak onshore flow will maintain some morning cloudiness across western Oregon and keep temperatures from getting too much above normal. Another weak weather system is forecast to move onshore Friday, with more middle and high clouds and slightly cooler temperatures. A stronger upper-level trough is forecast by all of the long-range computer models to move onshore this weekend. it may be strong enough to bring some showers to the region...especially by Sunday. Tomorrow (17 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Clearing Late. 55/75 Thu (18 Jun): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 55/80 Fri (19 Jun): Increasing Middle and High Clouds. 54/77 Sat (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers. 51/75 Sun (21 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 51/71 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/73 Tue (23 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jun 17 10:12:47 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 17 Jun 2009 12:12:47 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, June 17th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 7:00pm. Weather Discussion: A strong upper-level ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the eastern Pacific Ocean this morning. The main jet stream is being forced over the ridge, into the northern Gulf of Alaska, and then southeastward towards the Pacific Northwest. A split in the jet stream, just off the Washington and Oregon coastlines, weakened a cold front, as it moved onshore Tuesday evening and across Oregon Tuesday night. The weather front brought lots of clouds but little in the way of precipitation to the state. Some sprinkles fell along the central coast and in the southern Willamette Valley. Parts of Lane county picked up a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain, as did sections of Jackson County in southwestern Oregon. As the cold front advanced across central and eastern Oregon overnight, it produced scattered showers and a few thunderstorms. Light rain was reported in Lakeview, Baker City, and Rome, but amounts were less than one-tenth of an inch. What was left of the cold front was pusing into Idaho at mid-morning. Doppler radar showed some scattered light showers near the Idaho border but otherwise dry conditions prevailed across Oregon. Visible satellite imagery showed cloudy skies along the Idaho border and much of Idaho, in association with the weakening cold front. In the wake of the front, skies were only partly cloudy over most of central and eastern Oregon. Low-level onshore flow was resulting in extensive marine low clouds along the northern and central coast and across the Willamette Valley. Skies were mostly sunny over much of the south coast and southwestern interior. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure building into the central and southern Oregon Coast, with onshore flow extending across all of Oregon and into extreme western Idaho. The strongest gradients were east of the Willamette valley...a condition commonly referred to as gradient-stacking. That is typical after a marine intrusion and results in sinking air over the western slopes of the Cascades and is not conducive to good evacuation of smoke through the Cascade Passes. Temperatures dropped into the mid to upper 50s across the Willamette valley overnight and were mostly in the low 60s at mid morning. Onshore flow will likely keep considerable marine low clouds over the coast and the Willamette Valley this morning, with slow clearing this afternoon. The air aloft has cooled slightly since Tuesday, so valley temperatures will struggle into the mid 70s this afternoon, even with some sunbreaks. A building ridge of high pressure, both at the surface and aloft, will turn surface and transport winds northwesterly this afternoon, making for favorable ventililation conditions for both agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: W 3-8 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 10 this morning, NW 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 42. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 51%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: A weak ridge will build over the region Thursday, with more afternoon sunshine and warmer temperatures. Weak onshore flow will maintain some morning cloudiness across western Oregon and keep temperatures from getting too much above normal. A little stronger weather system is forecast to move onshore Friday, with more clouds, cooler temperatures, and a chance of light showers. Another system will bring a reinforcing shot of marine air and a continued chance of showers over the weekend. An upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the region during at least the first half of next week, with continued onshore flow, below normal temperatures, and a chance of showers at times. Tomorrow (18 Jun): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 55/78 Fri (19 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Light Showers. 54/70 Sat (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 51/69 Sun (21 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 50/68 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 50/73 Tue (23 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/74 Wed (24 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. 51/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 18 09:00:56 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:00:56 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, June 18th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:30am until 7:30pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:30am until 7:30pm. Weather Discussion: A weak and transitory upper-level ridge of high pressure will bring dry and slightly warmer conditions to Oregon today. The one exception will be possible areas of morning drizzle along the coast and western slopes of the coast range. Visible satellite imagery showed marine low clouds blanketing western Washington and most of western Oregon at mid-morning. The low clouds extended south to about Cape Blanco on the southern Oregon Coast. Inland, low clouds covered the entire Willamette Valley and stretched south, to the southern border of Douglas County, into southwestern Oregon. Skies were mostly clear east of the Cascade crest across both Washington and Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed weak high pressure building into the central Oregon Coast with another high pressure center over northeastern Oregon. Onshore flow extended from the Oregon Coastl eastward into Idaho. Westererly winds were less than 10 mph across western Oregon but increased to around 20 mph across sections of northeast and eastern Oregon. Temperatures dropped mostly into the 50s overnight across western Oregon with cooler 40s and 50s east of the Cascades. Redmond, in central Oregon, was the cold spot in the state this morning with a minimum of 40 degrees. The Salem sounding this morning showed slight cooling, compared with Wednesday, below 5500 feet and warming above, due to the building upper-level ridge over the region. Warming aloft will help to shallow the marine layer enough to promote a little more sunshine this afternoon than on Wednesday. That will likely boost western Oregon temperatures into the mid 70s, after topping out in the low 70s Wednesday. Surface and transport winds will be mainly westerly this afternoon, making for favorable ventililation conditions for both agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: W 3-8 this morning, W 5-12 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 4 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 55. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 1pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:25am. Extended Outlook: The weak upper-level ridge over the region will flatten tonight, with the flow aloft backing from northwesterly to southwesterly. A little stronger weather system, compared with the one that moved across Oregon Tuesday, is forecast to move onshore Friday. That will deepen the cool marine layer over western Oregon...resulting in more clouds, lower temperatures, and a pretty good chance of showers. Scattered showers will spread across the entire state during the day on Friday, with a chance of thundershowers from the Cascades eastward. Another system will bring a reinforcing shot of cool and moist marine air into western Oregon later Saturday and Sunday, with a renewed chance of showers. An upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the region during at least the first half of next week, with temperatures staying below normal. Onshore flow will maintain considerable morning clouds along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, but the shower threat should significantly decrease after Monday. The onshore flow is forecast to weaken late next week, with temperatures warming to near or above normal. Tomorrow (19 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Showers. 54/70 Sat (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Increasing Late. 51/67 Sun (21 Jun): Cloudy and Quite Cool. Scattered Showers. 50/66 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 48/69 Tue (23 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. A Little Warmer. 49/74 Wed (24 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny PM. Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 51/73 Thu (25 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 50/76 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 19 09:17:14 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2009 11:17:14 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 19th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 19th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 8:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weak cold front was moving onto the Oregon Coast this morning. Clouds advanced inland, well ahead of the front, Thursday night, with light rain falling as far south as North Bend along the coast and Eugene in the western interior. Showers also spread across north-central and into northeastern Oregon overnight. Rainfall amounts locally topped one-tenth of an inch along the north coast and in the northern Willamette Valley...tapering off to just a trace in Eugene. Showers only dropped a few hundredths of an inch of rain east of the Cascades. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed one area of clouds and showers had sheared away from the surface cold front and stretched from northern Idaho, across northeastern Oregon, to south-central Oregon. What was left of the cold front was enhancing the low cloud-deck covering most of western Washington and western Oregon. Surface reports confirmed areas of light rain extended from northeastern Oregon to south-central Oregon with some light rain also falling along the north coast. Doppler radar also showed areas of light precipitation over the north coast range and along the western slopes of the northern Oregon Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed weak high pressure building into the southern Oregon Coast with lower pressure over much of Washington state. That was resulting in southerly pressure gradients across western and northeastern Oregon. South winds were blowing in the 5-10 mph range across the Willamette Valley. Skies remained mostly cloudy across Oregon, but there were a few sunbreaks...mainly just east of the coast range and the Cascades, due to downsloping westerly winds aloft. Minimum temperatures were mostly in the mild 50s across Oregon overnight, due to considerable cloudiness. Lakeview was the cold spot with a low of 41. Mid-morning readings were mostly in the upper 50s and low 60s on both sides of the Cascades. The Salem sounding this morning showed westerly flow aloft with significant cooling from the surface all the way up to 35,000 feet. As the weak cold front and associated upper-level trough move across the state today, continued cooling aloft is forecast. Daytime heating of the surafce will destabilize the atmosphere today...with scattered showers developing. There is also a chance of a thunderstorm from the Cascades eastward. Cool onshore flow and mostly cloudy skies will keep temperatures from climbing above the upper 60s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Transport winds will be mainly westerly today, so when mixing heights climb above 3000 feet this afternoon, ventilation conditions will be favorable for both agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: SSW 6-15 this morning, WSW 8-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 12 this morning, WNW 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 68. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:26am. Extended Outlook: Another weather system will bring a reinforcing shot of cool and moist air into western Oregon later Saturday and across all of Oregon Sunday. It will also renew the showers activity across the state. An upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the region during the first half of next week, with temperatures staying below normal. Onshore flow will maintain considerable morning clouds along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, but the shower threat should significantly decrease after Monday. The jet stream is forecast to push just north of Oregon late next week, with a strong westerly flow aloft forcast to move across Washington and southern British Columbia. That will maintain onshore flow across western Oregon with plenty of morning marine clouds keeping temperatures near-normal. Tomorrow (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Increasing Late. 51/67 Sun (21 Jun): Cloudy and Quite Cool. Scattered Showers. 50/65 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 48/69 Tue (23 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. Warmer. 48/76 Wed (24 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny PM. Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 53/74 Thu (25 Jun): AM Clouds...Afternoon Clearing. 52/75 Fri (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Afternoon Clearing. 52/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 19 11:47:15 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 19 Jun 2009 13:47:15 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 19th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 19th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 8:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weak cold front moved onto the Oregon Coast early this morning and was over the coast range late this morning. Ahead of the cold front, clouds and showers advanced across most of the northern half of Oregon overnight. Locally more than a tenth of an inch of rain fell along the northern and central coast and the northern Willamette Valley. Rainfall amounts tapered off to just a trace in the southern Willamette Valley around Eugene. Spotty showers dropped up to a few hundredths of an inch of rain east of the Cascades. Late-morning satellite imagery showed the leading band of clouds and showers had pushed eastward and stretched from extreme western Montana and northern Idaho, across northeast Oregon, to south-central Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports showed scattered areas of rain all along that line. The low-level cold front was also producing some scattered light showers across western Washington and western Oregon, north of a line from North Bend to Eugene. Westerly winds aloft were creating upsloping conditions along the western slopes of the coast Cascade ranges. That is where the bulk of the showers were falling. In contrast, downsloping winds were creating areas of clearing on the eastern or lee side of both ranges. One area with some sounbreaks was the western Willamette Valley, and the other was west-central Oregon The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure continuing to build into the southern and central Oregon Coast with a low-pressure trough cutting across east-central Washington. That was continuing to produce southerly winds in the northern Willamette Valley, but winds had become westerly in the south valley. Wind speeds had increased to the 5-15 mph range. Downsloping winds, off the coast range, had warmed Willamette Valley temperatures into the mid to upper 60s, so I have updated the high temperature forecast to include this warming effect. However, cold air aloft will not support valley temperatures climbing much above 70 degrees. The Salem sounding this morning showed the increasingly strong westerly flow aloft, along with significant cooling from the surface all the way up to 35,000 feet. As the weak cold front, and associated upper-level, trough move across the state today, the air aloft should continue to cool. Daytime heating of the surafce will destabilize the atmosphere this afternoon...leading to the development of scattered showers...mainly over and on the western slopes of mountains. There is also a chance of thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward. There will be a mix of clouds, some sunbreaks and a few showers this afternoon across western Oregon. Most of the sunbreaks will continue to be on the west side of the Willamette Valley and most of the showers will be near the coast range and over the Cascade foothills. Brisk westerly transport winds, along with mixing heights slightly above 3000 feet, will provide adequate ventilation this afternoon for both agricultural and stack burning. Surface Winds: WSW 8-15...becoming W 8-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 15...becoming WNW 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 70. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:26am. Extended Outlook: Another weather system will bring a reinforcing shot of cool and moist air into western Oregon later Saturday and across all of Oregon Sunday. It will also increase the shower activity across the state. An upper-level trough is forecast to remain over the region during the first half of next week, with temperatures staying below normal. Onshore flow will maintain considerable morning clouds along the coast and across the Willamette Valley, but the shower threat should decrease Monday. The jet stream is forecast to push just north of Oregon Wednesday and Thursday of next week, with a strong westerly flow aloft across Washington and southern British Columbia. That would maintain onshore flow across western Oregon with plenty of morning marine low clouds keeping temperatures near-normal. There is some indication that the jet stream may migrate far enough north by the end of next week for temperatures to climb back above normal. Tomorrow (20 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers...Increasing Late. 51/67 Sun (21 Jun): Cloudy and Quite Cool. Scattered Showers. 50/65 Mon (22 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 48/69 Tue (23 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. Warmer. 48/76 Wed (24 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny PM. Slight Chance of Showers North Late. 53/75 Thu (25 Jun): AM Clouds...Afternoon Clearing. 52/74 Fri (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 52/78 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jun 22 10:23:43 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 22 Jun 2009 12:23:43 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, June 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, June 22nd, 2009 at 10:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level low pressure system was centered over eastern Washington at mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed an area of mostly clear skies, near the center of circulation, covering a fair portion of eastern Washington, with an impressive band of clouds whirling around the low-pressure center, across northeastern Washington, central Washington, and into northeastern Oregon. Radar showed scattered showers embedded within that same circulation. Meanwhile, onshore flow was maintaining lots of marine low clouds over western Washington and northwestern Oregon, but the atmosphere is beginning to dry out over most of Oregon. Mid-morning skies were mostly sunny over the southern half of the Oregon...including the coast. Clearing skies overnight allowed temperatures to cool into the 40s across most of the Willamette Valley. Corvallis and Eugene dipped into the upper 30s. That is getting close to record cold temperatures for early summer. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable warming aloft (above 7000 feet) since Sunday afternoon, in response to the eastward shift of the upper-level trough into eastern Washington. As a transitory upper-level ridge moves onshore today, continued warming aloft will help to stabilize the atmosphere over western Oregon. There is still a slight chance of a shower through this afternoon...mainly along the north coast, over the north coastal range and over the extreme northern Cascades. Otherwise, daytime heating will only produce some fair-weather cumulus cloud development over northwestern Oregon. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure centered over the central Oregon Coast with weak pressure gradients over western Oregon. A thermal trough is forecast to begin building northward, into extreme southwestern Oregon, today, as the upper-level trough over eastern Washington shifts eastward into northern Idaho and western Montana. That will increase the north-northwesterly gradients across western Oregon later this afternoon, with further drying and warming of the air mass. After such a chilly start, for late June, high temperatures will still be below normal statewide this afternoon, even with some sunshine. Rapidly clearing skies this evening will allow overnight temperatures to drop back into the 40s across most of the Willamette Valley. Surface Winds: Var 5 this morning, NNW 8-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 5 this morning, N 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:26am. Extended Outlook: A weak and transitory upper-level ridge will move over Oregon Tuesday for continued warming and drying of the air mass. Temperatures should recover to slightly above normal by Tuesday afternoon across western Oregon. The next weather system is forecast to be directed mainly at southern British Columbia and western Washington but may be strong enough to bring some light showers as far south as northwestern Oregon late Wednesday through early Thursday. The main effect from this system will be an increase in the onshore flow Wednesday afternoon, along with more clouds. Temperatures will most likely cool back below normal on Thursday, with considerable morning clouds. A weak ridge will shift the jet stream northward, to over southern British Columbia, on Friday. Continued onshore flow will keep some morning clouds over western Oregon with afternoon sunshine lifting temperatures close to normal. The jet stream is forecast to sag southward on Saturday, with another weak cold front possibly spreading light showers as far south as northwestern Oregon by late in the day. The chance of showers will continue into Sunday with another weak ridge drying out the atmosphere a bit on Monday. No major changes are forecast in the weather pattern through next week, with another trough forecast to come onshore around the middle of next week...keeping temperatures moderate and maintaining a threat of light showers. Tomorrow (23 Jun): AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. Warmer. 47/79 Wed (24 Jun): Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. Chance of Showers North Late. 52/79 Thu (25 Jun): Chance of AM Showers...Afternoon Clearing and Cooler. 56/73 Fri (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 53/76 Sat (27 Jun): Increasing Clouds and Onshore Flow. Chance of Showers North late. 52/76 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers North. 51/75 Mon (29 Jun): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/77 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jun 23 09:09:49 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 23 Jun 2009 11:09:49 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 2:00pm until 7:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: The upper-level low pressure system, that was centered over eastern Washington Monday, shifted northeastward into Montana and southern Canada overnight. Weak westerly flow aloft prevailed this morning over Washington and Oregon, with the region getting a break from Pacific storm activity today. Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over both states, for a change. That allowed overnight temperatures to drop into the 40s again across most of the Willamette Valley. After tying a record low Monday morning with 39 degrees, Eugene dipped to 41 degrees this morning. Meacham, in northeastern Oregon, was the cold spot in the state this morning with a minumum of 30 degrees. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the 50s across the state. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable warming aloft (between 3000 and 9000 feet) since Monday afternoon, in response to a very weak upper-level ridge moving over the region. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis high pressure had moved inland over northern Washington with a thermal low-pressure center over northern California. That was producing much drier north to northeasterly gradients across Washington and Oregon, with no marine morning clouds forming in the western valleys nor along the coast. After a rather chilly start to the day, warmer air aloft and a full day of sunshine will help temperatures climb above normal this afternoon. Willamette Valley highs should reach near 80 degrees. Northerly winds may become a bit brisk along the central and southern coast as well as the southern Willamette Valley this afternoon. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this morning, N 8-15 G20 South this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 12 this morning, NNE 12 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 79. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 11. Minimum relative humidity will be near 30%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast to be directed mainly at southern British Columbia and western Washington but may be strong enough to bring some light showers as far south as northwestern Oregon late Wednesday through early Thursday. The main effect from this system will be an increase in the onshore flow Wednesday afternoon and night, along with more clouds. Temperatures will most likely cool back below normal on Thursday, with considerable clouds and a chance of morning drizzle or light showers. A weak ridge will shift the jet stream northward, to over southern British Columbia, on Friday. Continued onshore flow will keep some morning clouds over western Oregon with afternoon sunshine lifting temperatures close to normal. The jet stream is forecast to sag southward on Saturday, with another weak cold front possibly spreading light showers as far south as northwestern Oregon by late in the day. The chance of showers will continue into Sunday with another weak ridge drying out the atmosphere a bit on Monday. No major changes are forecast in the weather pattern through next week, with onshore flow keeping temperatures moderate. Tomorrow (24 Jun): Increasing Clouds in the Afternoon. Chance of Showers North Late. 51/79 Thu (25 Jun): Chance of AM Showers...Afternoon Clearing and Cooler. 56/73 Fri (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 53/76 Sat (27 Jun): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Showers North late. 52/76 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers North. 51/75 Mon (29 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/77 Tue (30 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/77 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Jun 24 09:10:27 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 24 Jun 2009 11:10:27 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, June 24th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 8:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weak and transitory upper-level ridge is shifting east of the region in response to a well developed frontal system moving onto the the southern British Columbia coastline this morning. The real punch of this system is being directed north into Canada. However, the trailing cold front did show up well on infrared satellite imagery this morning and had moved within 200 miles of the Washington and Oregon coastlines. The cloud-band associated with the cold front was quite impressive over southwestern British Columbia, including over Vancouer Island, but rapidly narrowed, as it stretched south to off the Oregon Coast. High and mid-level clouds extended well out ahead of the system...covering the northern half of Washington. The clouds lowered and thickened over northwestern Washington with light to moderate rain falling on the northern Washington coast. Meanwhile, skies were mostly sunny over Oregon this morning, with the exception of a narrow zone of low clouds and fog along the coast and locally into the coastal gaps in the coast range. Fair skies overnight allowed Willamette Valley temperatures to fall into the upper 40s and low 50s, which is near-normal for late June. Minimum temperatures east of the Cascades were mostly in the 40s and 50s. Lakeview was the cold spot with a low of 39. Mid-morning temperaturse were in the low to mid 50s along the coast and upper 50s to mid 60s across the remainder of the state. The Salem sounding this morning showed further warming aloft, since Tuesday morning. The freezing level had risen to near 13,000 feet. The winds aloft had turned southwesterly and were increasing in response to the approaching weather system. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure over the southern Oregon Coast with a low-pressure trough approaching northwestern Washington. That was producing southerly gradients over western Oregon. Winds in the Willamette Valley were generally southerly at about 5 mph. As the offshore cold front approaches the Oregon Coast, clouds will increase today, from northwest to southeast, across Oregon. The air aloft will begin cooling with increasing southwesterly transport winds. The combination of daytime surface heating and cooling aloft should lift mixing heights above 4000 feet later this afternoon...making for good ventilation conditions for agricultural and stack burning. The cold front will likely be strong enough to bring some light showers to extreme northwestern Oregon later this afternoon through Thursday morning. Rainfall amounts will be greatest along the north coast, with only a trace to a couple of hundredths expected in the Willamette Valley. Sections of the valley, especially south, may not see any rain at all from this system. However, it will generate locally blustery southwesterly winds across western Oregon later today and tonight, as it sends a surge of cooler marine air onshore and across Oregon. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, SW 10-15 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 10 this morning, SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4500 feet. Ventilation index 90. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 79. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 10am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 41%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: Temperatures will likely cool to below normal on Thursday, with considerable marine low clouds and a chance of morning drizzle or light showers. A weak ridge will shift the jet stream northward, to over southern British Columbia, on Friday. However, continued onshore flow will keep some morning clouds over western Oregon with afternoon sunshine lifting temperatures close to normal. The jet stream is forecast to sag southward on Saturday, with another weak cold front possibly spreading light showers as far south as northwestern Oregon by late in the day. The chance of showers will continue into Sunday with another weak ridge drying out the atmosphere a bit on Monday. A little stronger system is forecast to move into Washington next Tuesday and may also be strong enough to bring some light showers to the northwestern corner of Oregon. Tomorrow (25 Jun): Chance of AM Showers...Afternoon Clearing and Cooler. 54/72 Fri (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 48/76 Sat (27 Jun): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Showers North late. 52/80 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers North. 51/75 Mon (29 Jun): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/77 Tue (30 Jun): Increasing Clouds. Slight Chance of Showers North Late. 50/75 Wed (01 Jul): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Jun 25 09:14:02 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 25 Jun 2009 11:14:02 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, June 25th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, June 25th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 8:00pm, from Stayton north, and not allowed south of Stayton. Weather Discussion: A well developed cold front swept across Washington and Oregon last night, bringing clouds and breezy conditions, but not much in the way of rainfall, to western Oregon. A few hundredths of an inch of rain fell along the northern Oregon Coast but only trace amounts on the central and south coast. A few sprinkles also fell in the northern Willamette Valley, but that was the extent of rainfall, over Oregon, with this system. In the wake of the cold front, strong onshore flow brought a deep layer of cool and moist marnine air into western Washington and western Oregon overnight. Visible satellite imagery this morning showed extensive low clouds covering all of western Washington and most of western Oregon this morning. With the exception of a few clouds near the cold front, along the Idaho border, skies were mostly sunny east of the Cascades. Westerly winds were still gusting over 20 mph across sections of northeastern Oregon, but winds had decreased to less than 10 mph across western Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed considerable cooling of the air mass below 10,000 feet, compared with Wednesday. Temperatures ranged from the mid 50s to the low 60s across most of the state at mid-morning. There is a slight chance of sprinkles...mainly over the coastal range and Cascades foothills this morning. Low clouds will give way to partly sunny skies across western Oregon this afternoon with increasing north-northwesterly surface transport winds. High temperatures will only warm into the low to mid 70s. Surface Winds: NW 5-13 this morning, NNW 8-15 G20 South this afternoon. Transport Winds: WNW 8 this morning, NNW 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4300 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 12pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 44%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:27am. Extended Outlook: A weak ridge will shift the jet stream northward, to over southern British Columbia, on Friday. However, continued onshore flow will keep some morning clouds over western Oregon with afternoon sunshine lifting temperatures close to normal. A weather system moving into southern British Columbia will push the jet stream back southward again on Saturday. A weak cold front is forecast to move onshore Saturday night and across northwestern Oregon early Sunday. It may not be strong enough to produce much shower activity this far south, but increasing onshore flow will blanket northwestern Oregon with marine low clouds on Sunday and cool temperatures back below normal. The jet stream will migrate slightly northward, to over southern British Columbia, Monday and Tuesday next week. Weak westerly flow aloft will maintain onshore flow at the surface, with afternoon sunshine warming temperatures back to near or slightly above normal. A weakening westerly flow aloft is forecast by the middle of next week, which may decrease the onshore flow and warm temperatures a few more degrees. The threat of precipitation appears minimal for Oregon next week, with only a slight chance of light showers or drizzle along the north coast. Tomorrow (26 Jun): AM Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 48/75 Sat (27 Jun): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. Increasing Clouds Late. 48/82 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Slight Chance of Sprinkles North. 53/74 Mon (29 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 49/75 Tue (30 Jun): AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 50/78 Wed (01 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 53/81 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 54/82 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 26 09:12:11 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2009 11:12:11 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 26th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Strong onshore flow on Thursday maintained a layer of marine low clouds across most of western Oregon with well below normal temperatures. High temperatures only climbed into the upper 60s across the Willamette Valley, with low to mid 60s along the coast. Skies did clear over southwestern Oregon Thursday, and temperatures climbed into the mid 70s to low 80s. Central and eastern Oregon basked in sunshine Thursday with highs generally in the comfortable 70s and 80s. Ontario, near the Idaho border, was the warm spot in the state at 92. Skies began clearing over northwestern Oregon Thursday evening, as the flow aloft, and at the surface turned more northerly. That allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s across sections of the Willamette Valley by early this morning. McMinnville dipped to 44 degrees, and Eugene recorded a minimum of 45. Portland, Aurora, and Salem all stayed in the low 50s. Visible satellite imagery showed widespread low clouds across western Washington this morning with just pockets of low clouds in the Willamette Valley. Low cloudiness was a bit more extensive over the valleys of southwestern Oregon. In stark contrast to Thursday, most of the Washington and Oregon coastlines were free of low clouds...and indication that the onshore flow had weakened considerably. The ODA surface analysis showed high pressure had strongly built into the Washington and Oregon coastlines with the strongest onshore gradients from the Cascades eastward into Idaho. Gradients had turned more northerly across western Oregon with the strongest pressure differences along the central and southern coast and from the southern Willamette Valley to the California border. Northerly winds were already 10 mph or greater from Eugene to Roseburg North Bend. Notherly winds were blowing in the 5-10 mph range across the remainder of northwestern Oregon. Winds were still northwesterly across north-central and northeastern Oregon but turned northerly from south-central to southeastern Oregon. The Salem sounding this morning showed warming aloft, compared with Thursday morning, associated with a building ridge of high pressure. Winds had turned offshore from the surface to the top of the marine layer at about 5200 feet. A dry and warming northwesterly flow prevailed above the marine layer. Patchy low clouds will soon give way to sunny skies along the coast and over the Willamette Valley today. Northerly winds will increase this afternoon, as a thermal trough pushes northweard into southwestern Oregon and tightens the pressure gradients across western Oregon. The strongest winds in the valley will be in the Eugene area. With increasing northerly winds and fairly high mixing heights forecast today, ventialtion conditions are expected to be good for agricultural burning. However, northerly transport winds are not conducive to good smoke evacuation for stack burning, so it was not allowed. Warming aloft and plenty of sunshine will combine to lift valley temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon (near-normal). Mostly clear skies and a drier air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 40s across most of the valley by Saturday morning. Surface Winds: N 5-13 this morning, N 10-17 G25 south this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 10 this morning, N 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5200 feet. Ventilation index 73. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 10. Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:28am. Extended Outlook: A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the northern Gulf of Alaska, on Saturday. That will back the flow aloft over Oregon from northwesterly to southwesterly by Saturday evening. Initially, that will warm the air mass over the state, with sunny skies lifting temperatures into the low to mid 80s across the Willamette Valley Saturday afternoon. The trailing end of a cold front is forecast to move onto the Washington coast Saturday night and across northwestern Oregon Sunday morning. It may not be strong enough to produce much shower activity this far south, but it will bring a strong surge of cooler and moist marine air into western western Washington and northwestern Oregon Sunday. Marine low clouds will, once again, invade the region and cool temperatures back to near-normal. Southwesterly flow aloft will continue through Monday with onshore flow maintaining a pattern conducive to morning clouds and seasonal temperatures across northwestern Oregon. The jet stream will migrate slightly northward, to over southern British Columbia, Tuesday and Wednesday, with the flow aloft weakening and turning more westerly. That will decrease the onshore flow and allow temperatures to warm a few degrees more. A weak weather system may turn the flow aloft southwesterly by Thursday with increasing onshore flow beginning a cooling trend. Tomorrow (27 Jun): Sunny and Warmer. 48/82 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Slight Chance of Sprinkles North. 53/76 Mon (29 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/78 Tue (30 Jun): AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/81 Wed (01 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 53/84 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 54/82 Fri (03 Jul): Partly Sunny and Cooler. 52/78 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Jun 26 12:01:28 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 26 Jun 2009 14:01:28 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, June 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 26th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Marine low clouds were persistent across most of western Oregon on Thursday with strong onshore flow. High temperatures only reached the upper 60s in the Willamette Valley, with low to mid 60s for highs along the coast. Skies did clear over southwestern Oregon Thursday, with sunny skies helping warm temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s. Central and eastern Oregon basked in sunshine Thursday with highs generally in the comfortable 70s and 80s. Ontario, near the Idaho border, was the warm spot in the state at 92. Skies began clearing over northwestern Oregon Thursday evening, as the flow aloft, and at the surface turned more northerly and began to dry out. That allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s across sections of the Willamette Valley by early this morning. McMinnville and Eugene dipped to 44 degrees, and Eugene recorded a minimum of 45. Portland, Aurora, and Salem all had a low of 51. Visible satellite imagery showed widespread low clouds across western Washington through mid-morning, but the clouds were breaking up there at midday. There were only pockets of low clouds over mainly the southern Willamette Valley earlier this morning, but skies were mostly sunny across all but the extreme northwest tip of Oregon at midday. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure had strongly built into the Washington and Oregon coastlines with a tongue of high pressure also extending into northeastern Oregon. The strongest onshore gradients had shifted east to near the Idaho border, with gradients turning northerly across the western two-thirds of Oregon. The strongest midday winds were at The Dalles and North Bend, with both of those areas getting gusts to near 30 mph. North winds in the Willamette Valley had increased to between 5 and 15 mph. The Salem sounding this morning showed northwesterly winds and warming aloft, compared with Thursday morning, both associated with a building ridge of high pressure. Northerly surface winds will continue to increase this afternoon, as a thermal trough pushes northward into southwestern Oregon and tightens the pressure gradients across western Oregon. The strongest winds west of the cascades will be in the southern Willamette Valley and along the central and southern coast. With increasing northerly winds and fairly high mixing heights, ventilation conditions are expected to be good for agricultural burning this afternoon. Northerly transport winds are not good for stack burning. Warming aloft and plenty of sunshine will combine to lift valley temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon (near-normal). Mostly clear skies and a dry air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop below normal across Oregon overnight, with Willamette Valley minimums dipping into the 40s. Surface Winds: N 10-17 G25 south this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5200 feet. Ventilation index 73. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:28am. Extended Outlook: A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the northern Gulf of Alaska, on Saturday. That will back the flow aloft over Oregon from northwesterly to southwesterly by Saturday evening. Initially, that will warm the air mass over the state, with sunny skies lifting temperatures into the low to mid 80s across the Willamette Valley Saturday afternoon. The trailing end of a cold front is forecast to move onto the Washington coast Saturday night and across northwestern Oregon Sunday morning. It may not be strong enough to produce much shower activity this far south, but it will usher a strong surge of cool and moist marine air into western Washington and northwestern Oregon Sunday and Monday. Some marine low clouds will invade the western valleys with near-normal temperatures. The trough will pass to the east by Monday afternoon with the flow aloft turning northwesterly and drying out. The jet stream will migrate slightly northward, to over southern British Columbia, Tuesday and Wednesday, with weak westerly flow aloft. That will decrease the onshore flow and allow temperatures to warm above normal. A weak weather system may turn the flow aloft southwesterly by Thursday with increasing onshore flow beginning a cooling trend by Friday. That system may be strong enough to end the dry stretch and bring in showers on the 4th of July (next Saturday). Tomorrow (27 Jun): Sunny and Warmer. 48/82 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Slight Chance of Sprinkles North. 53/76 Mon (29 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/78 Tue (30 Jun): AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/81 Wed (01 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 53/84 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 54/82 Fri (03 Jul): Partly Sunny and Cooler. 52/78 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jun 29 09:11:51 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:11:51 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, June 29th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, June 26th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Marine low clouds were persistent across most of western Oregon on Thursday with strong onshore flow. High temperatures only reached the upper 60s in the Willamette Valley, with low to mid 60s for highs along the coast. Skies did clear over southwestern Oregon Thursday, with sunny skies helping warm temperatures into the mid 70s to low 80s. Central and eastern Oregon basked in sunshine Thursday with highs generally in the comfortable 70s and 80s. Ontario, near the Idaho border, was the warm spot in the state at 92. Skies began clearing over northwestern Oregon Thursday evening, as the flow aloft, and at the surface turned more northerly and began to dry out. That allowed temperatures to drop into the mid 40s across sections of the Willamette Valley by early this morning. McMinnville and Eugene dipped to 44 degrees, and Eugene recorded a minimum of 45. Portland, Aurora, and Salem all had a low of 51. Visible satellite imagery showed widespread low clouds across western Washington through mid-morning, but the clouds were breaking up there at midday. There were only pockets of low clouds over mainly the southern Willamette Valley earlier this morning, but skies were mostly sunny across all but the extreme northwest tip of Oregon at midday. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure had strongly built into the Washington and Oregon coastlines with a tongue of high pressure also extending into northeastern Oregon. The strongest onshore gradients had shifted east to near the Idaho border, with gradients turning northerly across the western two-thirds of Oregon. The strongest midday winds were at The Dalles and North Bend, with both of those areas getting gusts to near 30 mph. North winds in the Willamette Valley had increased to between 5 and 15 mph. The Salem sounding this morning showed northwesterly winds and warming aloft, compared with Thursday morning, both associated with a building ridge of high pressure. Northerly surface winds will continue to increase this afternoon, as a thermal trough pushes northward into southwestern Oregon and tightens the pressure gradients across western Oregon. The strongest winds west of the cascades will be in the southern Willamette Valley and along the central and southern coast. With increasing northerly winds and fairly high mixing heights, ventilation conditions are expected to be good for agricultural burning this afternoon. Northerly transport winds are not good for stack burning. Warming aloft and plenty of sunshine will combine to lift valley temperatures into the mid 70s this afternoon (near-normal). Mostly clear skies and a dry air mass tonight will allow temperatures to drop below normal across Oregon overnight, with Willamette Valley minimums dipping into the 40s. Surface Winds: N 10-17 G25 south this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5200 feet. Ventilation index 73. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 75. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 31%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:28am. Extended Outlook: A fairly strong upper-level trough is forecast to drop southeastward, from the northern Gulf of Alaska, on Saturday. That will back the flow aloft over Oregon from northwesterly to southwesterly by Saturday evening. Initially, that will warm the air mass over the state, with sunny skies lifting temperatures into the low to mid 80s across the Willamette Valley Saturday afternoon. The trailing end of a cold front is forecast to move onto the Washington coast Saturday night and across northwestern Oregon Sunday morning. It may not be strong enough to produce much shower activity this far south, but it will usher a strong surge of cool and moist marine air into western Washington and northwestern Oregon Sunday and Monday. Some marine low clouds will invade the western valleys with near-normal temperatures. The trough will pass to the east by Monday afternoon with the flow aloft turning northwesterly and drying out. The jet stream will migrate slightly northward, to over southern British Columbia, Tuesday and Wednesday, with weak westerly flow aloft. That will decrease the onshore flow and allow temperatures to warm above normal. A weak weather system may turn the flow aloft southwesterly by Thursday with increasing onshore flow beginning a cooling trend by Friday. That system may be strong enough to end the dry stretch and bring in showers on the 4th of July (next Saturday). Tomorrow (27 Jun): Sunny and Warmer. 48/82 Sun (28 Jun): Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Slight Chance of Sprinkles North. 53/76 Mon (29 Jun): AM Clouds. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/78 Tue (30 Jun): AM Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 52/81 Wed (01 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 53/84 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 54/82 Fri (03 Jul): Partly Sunny and Cooler. 52/78 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Jun 29 09:20:23 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 29 Jun 2009 11:20:23 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, June 29th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. State Fire Marshal Conditions May Be Met This Afternoon Due to Low Humidity and Wind... Issued: Monday, June 29th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A flat upper-level ridge of high pressure over the Pacific Northwest is allowing weak weather systems to skirt across southern British Columbia. The southern end of a dry cold front swept across Washington and Oregon Saturday night and Sunday. It did not produce much in the way of cloudiness, and only trace amounts of rain as far south as the extreme northwest corner of Oregon. However, increasing onshore flow cooled temperatures in the Willamette Valley from the mid 80s on Saturday to the upper 70s on Sunday. A dry and weak westerly flow aloft prevailed over Washington and Oregon this morning. Satellite imagery showed a pretty solid coverage of marine low clouds banked up against the Washington and extreme northern Oregon coastlines...about as far south as Lincoln City. In the wake of the dry cold front, the Salem sounding this morning showed some minor cooling, compared with Sunday morning, below 4200 feet, with not much change aloft. North-northeasterly winds just above the surface turned northerly above about 3000 feet and westerly above 10,000 feet. That windflow pattern is not westerly enough to force marine low clouds east of the coastal range, so skies were generally sunny over the interior of Washington and Oregon. With clear skies overnight and a fairly dry air mass in place, temperatures were able to drop well into the 40s across the Willamette Valley this morning. McMinnville was one of the colder spots with a minimum of 43 degrees. The Portland area was about the only spot to stay above 50 degrees overnight, likely due to the urban heat-island effect. Meacham, in northeastern Oregon, was the cold spot in the state this morning with a low of 35 degrees. The mid-morning ODA-surface analysis showed high pressure nosing into the Washington Coast with weak troughs of low pressure over eastern Washington and southeastern Oregon. Surface gradients were mostly northerly across Oregon, except for westerly channeling through the Columbia Gorge. Northerly winds were already increasing to about 15 mph along the coast and in the southern Willamette Valley. Temperatures were mostly in the mid to upper 50s across western Oregon and ranged from the upper 50s to the mid 70s east of the Cascades. The warmest temperatures were along the Idaho Border. A very weak upper-level trough will maintain westerly flow aloft today. Morning clouds along north coast should clear this afternoon with sunny skies continuing elsewhere across Oregon. Northerly winds will increase through this afternoon along the coast and in the Willamette Valley, as a surface thermal trough attempts to build into southern Oregon and tightens the pressure gradients. State Fire Marshal conditions may locally be reached later this afternoon, in the Willamette Valley, as humidity levels drop to or below 30 percent with northerly winds at or above 15 mph. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, N 10-17 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 15 this morning, N 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4200 feet. Ventilation index 84. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 79. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 10am. Minimum relative humidity will be near 29%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:29am. Extended Outlook: The weak upper-level trough over the region will shift east Tuesday, with the flow aloft turning northwesterly and warming Tuesday and Wednesday. That should continue to bring sunshine to the interior of Washington and Oregon with some morning low clouds restricted to the immediate coastline. After morning minimums in the 40s to low 50s, afternoon highs should warm into the lower 80s Tuesday and mid to upper 80s Wednesday. State Fire Marshal Conditions may be reached again, in the afternoons, due to low humidites and brisk northerly winds. The jet stream will migrate even farther north on Thursday, with the flow aloft turning southwesterly. The surface thermal trough will build northward into Oregon. That may warm valley temperatures to near 90 and will introduce a chance of afternoon thunderstorms to southern Oregon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely shift the surface thermal trough eastward, into central and eastern Oregon, Friday and Satruday, along with the warmest temperatures. By Saturday night or Sunday, a strong enough upper-level trough may approach the coastline to introduce a chance of showers or thundershowers to the state, along with continued cooling. There appears to be a good chance of a significant marine push and chance of showers by the end of the weekend and early next week. Tomorrow (30 Jun): Sunny. Brisk Afternoon Northerly Winds. 47/81 Wed (01 Jul): Sunny and Warmer. Brisk Afternoon Northerly Winds. 49/88 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny and Very Warm. 52/90 Fri (03 Jul): Sunny. 53/86 Sat (04 Jul): Patchy AM Clouds...Mostly Sunny and Cooler. 53/83 Sun (05 Jul): Becoming Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Increasing Chance of Showers. 53/77 Mon (06 Jul): Mostly Cloudy and Much Cooler. Chance of Showers. 53/70 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Jun 30 08:56:48 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 30 Jun 2009 10:56:48 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, June 30th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...State Fire Marshal Conditions May Be Reached Today Due To Brisk North Winds and Low Humidity... Issued: Tuesday, June 30th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 8:00pm. Preparatory burning is not allowed. Propane flaming is not allowed. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: An upper-level ridge over the Pacific Northwest is being flattened by a trough cutting across southern British Columbia. With the main jet stream over Canada, Washington and Oregon are under a dry westerly flow aloft. Weak onshore flow brought a band of low clouds into the Washington and extreme northern Oregon Coast overnight, with the remainder of both states staying clear. Clear skies and relatively dry air over the region allowed temperatures to drop below normal across the region this morning. Tillamook and Newport both dipped to a chilly 39 degrees this morning, while low clouds held temperatures in Astoria in the low 50s. Willamette Valley minimums dropped mostly into the 40s, with McMinnville dipping to just 41 degrees. Meacham was the cold spot in the state again this morning at 33 degrees. The surface analysis showed high pressure nosing into western Washington with a weak trough of low-pressure extending from eastern Washington to southeastern Oregon. A thermal trough was trying to build from Californais northward, into southwestern Oregon. That was resulting in strong northerly pressure gradients which will intensify again this afternoon. North winds gusted to 45 mph along the central and southern Oregon Coast Monday afternoon and to near 30 mph in the southern Willamette Valley. Northerly winds relaxed overnight but were already increasing again at mid-morning along the southern coast and in the Eugene area, with gusts to around 15 mph. Northerly winds should increase further this afternoon with gusts over 35 mph along the coastal strip and to around 25 mph in the central and southern Willamette Valley. The combination of brisk northerly winds and low relative humidity levels will likely put much of the Willamette Valley into Fire Marshal conditions at times this afternoon. Temperatures aloft are similar to Monday, so surface temperatures today will also reflect those of Monday. Willamette Valley highs will likely climb into the low 80s, after peaking Monday in the upper 70s. Coastal highs will be in the 60s, along with those brisk northerly winds. Temperatures east of the Cascades will range from the upper 70s to the low 90s. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, N 10-17 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 15 this morning, N 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 81. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 10. Minimum relative humidity will be near 25%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 9:02pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:30am. Extended Outlook: The weak upper-level trough to our north will shift east Wednesday, allowing an upper-level ridge to build over the region. That will begin a warming trend across Washington and Oregon with only patchy morning low clouds restricted to the immediate coastline. After morning minimums in the 40s to low 50s, afternoon highs should warm well into the 80s Wednesday. State Fire Marshal Conditions may be reached again, in the afternoon, due to low relative humidity and brisk northerly winds. As the jet stream migrates even farther north on Thursday, the flow aloft will begin turning southwesterly. A surface thermal trough will build northward into Oregon with northerly presure gradients relaxing. That may warm valley temperatures to near 90 and will introduce a chance of afternoon thunderstorms to southern Oregon. Increasing southwesterly flow aloft will likely shift the surface thermal trough eastward, into central and eastern Oregon, Friday and Saturday, along with the warmest temperatures. The risk of afternoon thunderstorms will continue to migrate northward, from the Cascades, eastward across most of central and eastern Oregon. Southwesterly flow aloft is forecast to continue to strengthen Saturday, with increasng onshore flow cooling temperatures a bit west of the Cascades. The thundershower threat will likely shift further east...mainly into Idaho. By late Sunday, a strong upper-level trough is forecast to initiate a significant marine push and introduce enough moisture to the region for a chance of showers and thunderstorms statewide. The cooling trend will continue into Monday with the chance of showers increasing, as the upper-level trough moves onshore. The trough is forecast to stall and weaken over the region Tuesday. Tomorrow (01 Jul): Sunny and Warmer. Brisk Afternoon Northerly Winds. 49/88 Thu (02 Jul): Mostly Sunny and Very Warm. 52/90 Fri (03 Jul): Mostly Sunny. 53/88 Sat (04 Jul): Mostly Sunny and a Little Cooler. Increasing Onshore Flow. 53/85 Sun (05 Jul): Becoming Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Chance of Showers or T-Storms. 53/77 Mon (06 Jul): Mostly Cloudy and Much Cooler. Chance of Showers. 53/70 Tue (07 Jul): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 52/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us