From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 2 09:08:29 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:08:29 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 2nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 2nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A slow moving cold front brought about more than an inch of rain to sections of the southern and central oregon caoast overnight and from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain to the Willamette Valley. The greatest rainfall amounts were in Lane County. North Bend has picked up just over two inches of rain in the past 24 hrs, with the southern Willamette valley generally erceiving between one-half and three-quarters of an inch. Some spots in the extreme north valley, like the Portland Airport, pickes up less than one-quarter of an inch. The ODA surface analysis showed the weakening cold front along the Cascades at mid-morning. Southerly flow aloft was keeping freezing levels near 6000 feet, with pass temperatures in the mid 30s. Timberline Lodge reported 3 inches of new snow overnight, so this front was not a big snow-maker for the mountains. ODOT raod cameras showed generally wet pavement over the passes. Pressure were relaxing across western Oregon, with south-southeasterly winds in the 5-15 mph rain from the coast across the Willamette Valley. Satellite imagery showed considerable breaks in the clouds across western Oregon, in the wake of the cold front. Some sunbreaks will enhance daytime heating, with valley highs likely climbing into the mid 50s (a little above normal). With the air aloft slowly cooling today, the afternoon heating should help to trigger some instability showers. Ventilation conditions will be good today, with southerly transport winds and high mixing heights. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 this morning, SSE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 64%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:46am. Extended Outlook: Another organized system, in the southwesterly flow aloft, is forecast to come onshore overnight, which will increase the rainfall across western Oregon. Snow levels will slowly drop to below the the cascades passes tonight, with 3-6 inches of new snow likely by Tuesday morning. As an upper-level trough Showers will continue Tuesday and taper off Wednesday, as an upper-level trough weakens and moves onshore. a quite cold system is forecast to drop into the region from southern British Columbia Thursday with more rain and very low snow levels. This system will need to be watched closely for the potential to produce sticking snow in the coast range and wet snow down the Willamette Valley floor. Showers will continue Friday with snow levels slowly lifting in the afternoon. The showers may briefly taper off Saturday, before another very cold system drops into the region Sunday. Tomorrow (03 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 41/53 Wed (04 Mar): Showers...Decreasing Late. 35/50 Thu (05 Mar): Rain and Colder. Snow Level Dropping to 1000 Feet or Less. 34/46 Fri (06 Mar): showers. Snow Level Starting Below 1000 Feet and Slowly Rising. 32/47 Sat (07 Mar): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 31/50 Sun (08 Mar): Increasing Rain and Snow. Snow Level Possibly Dropping to 500 Feet. 34/46 Mon (09 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny. 29/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 2 09:31:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 02 Mar 2009 11:31:04 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 2nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Updated High Temperature For Today and Corrected Wording on Weather Discussions... Issued: Monday, March 2nd, 2009 at 9:30am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A slow moving cold front brought more than an inch of rain to sections of the southern and central oregon caoast overnight and from one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch of rain to the Willamette Valley. The greatest rainfall amounts were in Lane County. North Bend picked up just over two inches of rain in the past 24 hrs, with the southern Willamette valley generally receiving between one-half and three-quarters of an inch. Some spots in the extreme north valley, like the Portland Airport, received less than one-quarter of an inch. The ODA surface analysis showed the weakening cold front along the Cascades at mid-morning. Southerly flow aloft was keeping freezing levels near 6000 feet, with pass temperatures in the mid 30s. Timberline Lodge reported 3 inches of new snow overnight, so this front was not a big snow-maker for the mountains. ODOT road cameras showed generally wet pavement over the passes. Pressure greadients were relaxing across western Oregon, with south-southeasterly winds in the 5-15 mph range. Satellite imagery showed considerable breaks in the clouds across western Oregon, in the wake of the cold front. Some sunbreaks will enhance daytime heating, with valley highs likely climbing into the mid to upper 50s (several degrees above normal). With the air aloft slowly cooling today, the daytime heating should help to trigger some instability showers. Ventilation conditions will be good today, with southerly transport winds and high mixing heights. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 this morning, SSE 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 57%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:01pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:46am. Extended Outlook: Another organized system, in the southwesterly flow aloft, is forecast to come onshore overnight, which will increase the rainfall across western Oregon. Snow levels will slow drop to the Cascade passes tonight, with 3-6 inches of new snow likely there by Tuesday morning. An upper-level trough will stay close enough to the coastline to keep some showers going over western Oregon into Wednesday. A quite cold system is forecast to drop into the region, from southern British Columbia, Thursday afternoon and Friday. This system will need to be watched closely for the potential to produce sticking snow in the coast range and wet snow down the Willamette Valley floor. Showers will decrease Friday afternoon, with snow levels lifting to about 1500 feet. we may see a brief break in the weather Saturday, before another very cold system drops into the region Sunday. That system is forecast to be even colder than the one Thursday night, so it also has the potential to bring wet snow to the lower elevations of northwestern Oregon. Tomorrow (03 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 41/53 Wed (04 Mar): Showers...Decreasing Late. 35/50 Thu (05 Mar): Rain and Colder. Snow Level Dropping to 1000 Feet or Less. 34/46 Fri (06 Mar): showers. Snow Level Starting Below 1000 Feet and Slowly Rising. 32/47 Sat (07 Mar): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers. 31/50 Sun (08 Mar): Increasing Rain and Snow. Wet Snow Possible on the Valley Floor. 33/45 Mon (09 Mar): Very Cold Start...Becoming Partly Sunny. 29/49 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 3 09:08:09 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:08:09 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Until Wednesday, March 4th at 9:00am... Issued: Tuesday, March 3rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Another surge of showers rotated onshore, late Monday, around a strong upper-level low-pressure system off the Oregon and California Coast.About one-quarter of an inch of rain fell in the Willamette Vally overnight, with one-tenth to one-half inch of rain also scattered across central and eastern Oregon. The air aloft is slowly cooling, as the parent upper-level trough moves closer to the coatline. The freezing levels over Salem and Medfor were measured this morning at just 4300 feet and 4500 feet respectively. Snow levels dropped below the Cascade passes overnight with a couple of inches of new snow falling on the roadways. The main jet stream is aimed at central and southern California this morning with southwesterly flow aloft continuing over Oregon. Satellite imagery showed mostly cloudy skies across the state with far fewer sunbreaks than yesterday morning. Doppler radar showed the strongest showers rotating into northern and central California, but scattered showers were making their way across all of Oregon and Washington. Clouds and showers held overnight temperatures mostly in the low 40s across western Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures ranged fromt he upper 30s to the mid 40s with partly to mostly cloudy skies. Daytime heating should act to increase the shower acticity this afternoon. There is also a slight chance of a thundershower. Colder air aloft will cap high temperatures in the low to mid 50s this afternoon. The ODA surface analysis continued to show south-sooutheasterly pressure gradients, and valley winds were in the 5-15 mph range at mid-morning. Winds could gust to around 20 mph today...especially near showers. A few more breaks in the clouds tonight, along with colder air aloft, should valley minimums to drop into the mid 30s, but most areas will likely stay just above freezing. There will still be a chance of showers, but it does not appear as if an organized impulse of showers will be moving onshore. Surface Winds: SSE 5-15 this morning, SSE 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 15 this morning, S 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 53. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:03pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:44am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level trough will weaken slightly Wednesday but remain close enough to the coastline to produce some showers across Oregon. Snow levels should remain fairly low, with a few more inches of snow likely over the Cascade passes. Valley highs Wednesday will likely cool a couple of more degrees from today. A quite cold system is forecast to drop into the region, from southern British Columbia, Thursday afternoon and Friday. This system is now expected to take a slightly more eastern track than previously forecast, which will limit the amount of cold air and moisture dropping into Oregon. It will still increase showers and lower snow levels across the region. Showers will taper off early Friday, with snow levels likely lifting to 3000 feet. we may see a brief break in the weather Saturday morning, before another very cold system drops into the region Saturday night and Sunday. That system is forecast to be even colder than the one Thursday night, so it has the potential to bring wet snow to the lower elevations of northwestern Oregon by sunday morning. Tomorrow (04 Mar): Showers...Decreasing Late. 35/50 Thu (05 Mar): Increasing Showers and Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 34/47 Fri (06 Mar): Showers Ending. Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 3000 Feet. 32/47 Sat (07 Mar): Partly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Showers PM. 31/50 Sun (08 Mar): Increasing Rain and Snow. Wet Snow Possible on the Valley Floor. 33/44 Mon (09 Mar): Rain or Snow Showers Ending. Partly Sunny and Quite Cool. 30/46 Tue (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Becoming Mostly Sunny and a Little Warmer. 29/50 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 4 09:04:27 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 04 Mar 2009 11:04:27 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 4th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 4th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A upper-level trough moved to near the southern Oregon/northern California Coast Tuesday with some showers continuing to circulate northweard across Oregon. The greatest precipitation amounts were across southern and eastern Oregon, with most of the Willamette Valley receiving less than one-tenth of an inch of rain. Colder air aloft dropped the freezing level to near 4500 feet Tuesday afternoon, with valley high temperatures only warming into the low to mid 50s...about 5 degrees of cooling from Monday afternoon. Partial clearing over northwestern Oregon last night allowed valley temperatures to cool to near the freezing mark with areas of early morning fog. Most of the valley and the northern half of the Oregon Coast was seeing at least a little sunshine at mid-morning, which was in stark contrast to the rest of the state. The upper-level low pressure area was weakening this morning and had moved inland, to over southwestern Oregon. Skies were generally cloudy over all but the northwestern portion of Oregon. Doppler radar showed most of the shower actificty confined to near the storm center over southwestern Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed a weak low-pressure area, near Medford, with weak offshore pressure gradients across western Oregon. Valley winds should be much lighter today, after brisk southerly winds the past couple of days. The air aloft is even colder this morning with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 3700 and 2800 feet respectively. Cold air aloft will combine with daytime heating to increase the shower activity, once again, this afternoon, but rainfall amounts should be generally less than one-tenth of an inch across the Willamette Valley. High temperatures should only climb into the low 50s. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, SW 4-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 56%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:04pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:42am. Extended Outlook: A quite cold system is forecast to drop into the region, from southern British Columbia, tomorrow. The main energy from this system is forecast to track just east of the region, but it will still increase showers across Oregon and lower snow levels to around 2000 feet by Thursday night. The Cascade passes could pick up as much as 6-10 inches of new snow, by Friday morning, with about one-quarter of an inch of rain expected across the Willamette Valley. Showers will taper off early Friday, with snow levels likely lifting to 3000 feet. We may see a brief break in the weather Saturday morning, before a very cold system drops into the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday Morning. This system is forecast drop straight down the Canadian Coastline and into Washington and Oregon. It will generate enough onshore flow to bring significant shower activity into the region Saturday night and Sunday. The forecast track of the storm will not allow for much moderation of the very cold air assocaited with it, before it gets here. Snow levels will likely drop to near the Willamette Valley floor by Sunday morning, with some accumulations of wet snow possible, even at the lowest elevations. Several inches of snow are likely, by Sunday morning, over the coast range passes, with even greater amounts in the Cascades. The remaining showers will be mostly as snow, Sunday night, with clearing skies overnight allowing temperatures to locally drop into the upper 20s across the Willamette Valley. An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over the region Monday with some sunshine and moderating temperatures. A weak system is forecast to push through the ridge late Tuesday, with a chance of light showers, mainly north, Tuesday night. Things should dry out again by Wednesday Afternoon. Tomorrow (05 Mar): Increasing Showers and Cool. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet. 34/47 Fri (06 Mar): Showers Ending. Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 3000 Feet. 33/48 Sat (07 Mar): Increasing Showers with Afternoon Snow Levels Lowering to 2000 Feet. 32/47 Sun (08 Mar): Rain and Snow Showers. Snow Level Near the Valley Floor. 32/43 Mon (09 Mar): Partly Sunny With Continued Below Normal Temperatures. 29/47 Tue (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Increasing Clouds. Chance of Showers Late. 29/50 Wed (11 Mar): Chance of Showers Early. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 37/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 5 09:02:23 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 05 Mar 2009 11:02:23 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 5th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 5th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Daytime heating combined with cold air aloft to trigger numerous showers across western Oregon Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts varied from only a trace (Salem Airport), to one-third of an inch. The heavier totals were in the Cascade foothills of Lane County. Most of the Willamette Valley received less than one-tenth of an inch. There were also reports of small hail in the vigorous showers Wednesday afternoon. A quite cold system dropped southward into the region, from southern British Columbia, overnight and early this morning. Increasing clouds and southerly winds held minimum temperatures in the upper 30s and low 40s across the Willamette Valley. The ODA surface analysis showed a cold front extending from low-pressure center over northeastern Washington westward to near Seattle. To the south of the front, fairly tight pressure-gradients were resulting in brisk south-southwesterly winds across the northern two-thirds of Oregon. The main energy from this system is aimed at extreme eastern Washington and northern Idaho, so the strongest winds, in Oregon, were blowing across the northeastern section of the state. Southwesterly winds were gusting over 30 mph in the Columbia Basin from Hermiston to Pendleton, with gusts to 25 mph all the way south and east to Rome, Oregon. Southerly winds in the Willamette generally in the 10-20 mph range. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering Washington and Oregon. Doppler radar and surface reports indicated that rain had spread southward across across Washington and the northern half of Oregon. Rain had spread south to Eugene by mid-morning. Morning rainfall amounts so far have been less than one-tenth of an inch across the Willamette Valley. The air mass is still quite cold with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 3400 and 2600 feet respectively early this morning. That puts the snow level at 2-3000 feet over Oregon this morning, and it will hold steady or drop a little more during the day. Winter Weather Advisories are in efefct for the northern Cascade passes, through 6pm, where more than 6 inches of new snow are likely. ODOT road cameras showed snow-packed Cascade passes this morning, with a couple of inches of new snow already. Pass temperatures were only in the mid 20s, with gusty winds making for poor driving conditions. Around one-quarter of an inch of rain is expected across the Willamette Valley today, with the steady rain tapering off to showers later this afternoon and tonight. Fairly high mixing heights and westerly transport winds will make for good ventilation conditions today. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 G25 this morning, W 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 25 this morning, W 25 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 47. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 63%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:05pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:40am. Extended Outlook: Showers will taper off early Friday, with snow levels likely lifting to 3000 feet Friday afternoon. The break in the weather may last through Saturday morning, before a very cold system drops into the region Saturday afternoon through Sunday. This system is forecast drop straight down the British Columbia Coastline and into Washington and Oregon. It will pull cold air from the interior of British Columbia out over the warmer ocean and then back inland across Oregon. The forecast weather pattern is a perfect set-up for very low snow levels by the second half of the weekend. Snow levels will likely drop to near the Willamette Valley floor Sunday through Monday morning, with some accumulations of wet snow possible, even at the lowest elevations. Expect winter driving conditions over the coast range and Cascade passes, beginning Saturday night and continuing thorugh Monday morning. Showers will taper off Monday with gradually clearing skies across western Oregon. Temperatures will be well below normal with snow levels only lifting to around 1500 feet Monday afternoon. Partial clearing and a cold north-northwesterly flow aloft should allow much of the valley to drop well below freezing Monday night. An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over the region Tuesday with a weak forecast to push through the ridge Tuesday night. Things should dry out again, starting Wednesday Afternoon. Thursday looks like a another break in the weather, with a transitory ridge building over the region. Tomorrow (06 Mar): Showers Ending. Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 3000 Feet. 33/48 Sat (07 Mar): Rain Developing by Afternoon. Snow Levels Lowering to 2000 Feet. 32/47 Sun (08 Mar): Rain and Snow Showers. Snow Level Near the Valley Floor. 32/43 Mon (09 Mar): Rain/Snow Showers Ending with Partial Clearing. Cool. 29/47 Tue (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Increasing Clouds. Chance of Showers Late. 29/50 Wed (11 Mar): Chance of Showers Early. Partial Afternoon Clearing. 37/53 Thu (12 Mar): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 36/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 6 09:02:22 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 06 Mar 2009 11:02:22 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, March 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 9:00am until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: Showers ended overnight, and skies slowly cleared, across northwestern Oregon, as a modified Arctic cold front pushed south across the northern half of Oregon. Rainfall amounts in the past 24-hours, ending at 4am, were generally between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch across western Oregon. Corvallis was one of the wettest locations with just over one-third of an inch. Meanwhile, Medford was the dry spot with only a trace of rain. The weakening cold front was draped across the middle of Oregon, at mid morning, with mostly clear skies to the north and mostly cloudy skies, with a few light rain and snow showers, to the south. Brookings had some light rain this morning with some light snow in Klamath Falls and flurries in Pendleton. Doppler radar showed little in the way of shower activity, so any precipitation this morning should be quite light. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak pressure gradients across western Oregon, with stronger northwesterly gradients across central and eastern Oregon. Light valley winds and clearing skies allowed temperatures to drop below freezing across much of the Willamette Valley this morning with areas of fog forming. Aurora and McMinnville dipped down to 29 degrees. Hillsboro dropped at least down to 30 degrees, with both Salem and Eugene dropping below freezing. Corvallis also dipped to at least 32 degrees. In contrast, cloudy skies, ahead of the weakening Arctic front, held temperatures across southwestern Oregon in the mid to upper 30s. Minimums east of the Cascades were mostly in the 20s, except for the higher elevations of northeast Oregon, where clearing skies allowed the temperature to drop down to 11 degrees at Meacham and 19 degrees at Baker City. A weak transitory upper-level ridge was ushering in a drier north-northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon this morning. That will help to clear skies today, from northwest to southeast, across the state. Some sunshine will help Willamette Valley temperatures recover to near 50 degrees this afternoon. The air mass is still very cold aloft, with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 2400 and 3300 feet respectively early this morning. That will combine wth daytime surface heating to lift mixing heights to near 4000 feet this afternoon. Valley winds will be light this morning and weak northwesterly this afternoon. The break in the weather will be brief with clouds increasing across northwestern Oregon overnight, in response to a very cold system dropping southward along the British Columbia Coastline. Willamette Valley temperatures should drop to near freezing tonight, due to the cold air mass over the region and light surface winds. However, temperatures should warm above freezing Saturday morning, as the clouds begin to thicken and surface winds increase. Surface Winds: Var 0-5 this morning, NW 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 5 this morning, NNW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 52%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:39am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast drop straight down the British Columbia Coastline and directly into Washington and Oregon. It will pull unseasonably cold air from the interior of British Columbia out over the warmer ocean waters and then back inland across Oregon, beginning Saturday afternoon and lasting into Monday. That forecast weather pattern is a perfect set-up for very low snow levels across western Washington and northwestern Oregon. Snow levels will likely start out near 2000 feet Saturday and drop to near the Willamette Valley floor Saturday night through Monday...especially in the overnight periods. Some accumulations of wet snow are possible, even at the lowest elevations, beginning Saturday night. Expect winter driving conditions over the coast range and Cascade passes, Saturday through Monday. Rain and snow showers should begin to taper off Monday night with gradually clearing skies across western Oregon. Temperatures will be well below normal with snow levels only lifting to about 1500 feet Monday afternoon. Partial clearing and a cold north-northwesterly flow aloft should allow much of the valley to drop well below freezing Monday night. An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over the region Tuesday with a drier and cool northwestly flow aloft. A weak warm front may bring some sprinkles and warming on Wednesday. Thursday and perhaps Friday look dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge builds over the region. Sat (07 Mar): Rain By Late-Morning and Breezy...Turning to Rain/Snow Showers Late. 32/47 Sun (08 Mar): Rain/Snow Showers. Accumulating Wet Snow Possible on Valley Floors. 32/43 Mon (09 Mar): Rain/Snow Showers. Accumulating Wet Snow Possible on Valley Floors. 30/43 Tue (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Partly Sunny and Cool. 28/47 Wed (11 Mar): Chance of Sprinkles. 32/50 Thu (12 Mar): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 35/53 Fri (13 Mar): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 36/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri Mar 6 12:02:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:02:08 -0600 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, March 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Tuesday, March 10th at 9:00am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Friday, March 6th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold Arctic frontal system droppedsouth across Washington and into northern Oregon Thursday, producing between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch across most of western Oregon. Corvallis was one of the wettest locations with just over one-third of an inch. Meanwhile, Medford was the dry spot with only a trace of rain. Snow levels dropped to about 2000 feet with 6-12 inches of new snow reported at the ski resorts in the Cascades. Showers ended overnight, across northwestern Oregon, with slowly clearing skies allowing most Willamette Valley temperatures to drop below freezing early this morning. Areas of fog also developed but quickly gave way to mostly sunny skies by later in the morning. Hillsboro dipped to 28 degrees early this morning. Aurora and McMinnville followed close behind, both with minimums of 29. Salem and Corvallis fell to 30 degrees and Eugene bottomed out at 31. In contrast, cloudy skies, ahead of a weakening Arctic front, held temperatures across southwestern Oregon in the mid to upper 30s. Medford only dropped to 36 degrees and Roseburg held up at 39. Morning minimums east of the Cascades were mostly in the 20s, with widely scattered snow showers continuing into this morning. Meacham, in the Blue Mountains, fell to 11 degrees, and Baker City dipped into the upper teens. The weakening cold front had pushed to about the southeast corner of Oregon by late this morning and extended back northwestward to about Tillamook. Skies were parlty to mostly sunny north of the frontal zone but remained mostly cloudy to the south. Doppler radar showed little in the way of shower activity, so any remaining shower activity, across southern and eastern Oregon, was light. The ODA surface analysis showed very weak pressure gradients across western Oregon, with stronger northwesterly gradients across central and eastern Oregon. Brisk northwesterly winds were gusting to between 20 and 25 mph across the eastern third of the state. Winds were light across western and central Oregon with light northerly winds across southern Oregon. A weak transitory upper-level ridge ushered in a drier north-northwesterly flow aloft over Oregon this morning. That will continue to clear skies, from northwest to southeast, across the state this afternoon. Moslty sunny skies had lifted Willamette valley temperatures into the mid 40s by late this morning. Cold air aloft will keep high temperatures from climbing much above 50 degrees this afternoon with surface heating creating some convective clouds, but the upper-level ridging preventing shower development. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at just 2400 and 3300 feet respectively early this morning. The break in the weather will be brief with clouds increasing across northwestern Oregon overnight, in response to a very cold system dropping southward along the British Columbia Coastline. Willamette Valley temperatures should drop to near freezing tonight, due to the cold air mass over the region and light surface winds. However, temperatures should warm above freezing Saturday morning, as the clouds begin to thicken and surface winds increase. Surface Winds: NW 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 20. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 52%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 6:07pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:39am. Extended Outlook: The next weather system is forecast drop straight down the British Columbia Coastline and directly into Washington and Oregon. It will pull unseasonably cold air from the interior of British Columbia out over the warmer ocean waters and then back inland across Oregon, beginning Saturday afternoon and lasting into Monday. That forecast weather pattern is a perfect set-up for very low snow levels across western Washington and northwestern Oregon. Snow levels will likely start out near 2000 feet Saturday and drop to near the Willamette Valley floor Saturday night through Monday...especially in the overnight periods. Some accumulations of wet snow are possible, even at the lowest elevations, beginning Saturday night. Expect winter driving conditions over the coast range and Cascade passes, Saturday through Monday. Rain and snow showers should begin to taper off Monday night with gradually clearing skies across western Oregon. An upper-level ridge is forecast to shift over the region Tuesday with a drier and cool northwestly flow aloft. A weak warm front may bring some sprinkles and warming on Wednesday. Thursday and perhaps Friday look dry and warmer, as a transitory upper-level ridge builds over the region. Sat (07 Mar): Rain By Late-Morning and Breezy...Turning to Rain/Snow Showers Late. 32/47 Sun (08 Mar): Rain/Snow Showers. Accumulating Wet Snow Possible on Valley Floors. 32/43 Mon (09 Mar): Rain/Snow Showers. Accumulating Wet Snow Possible on Valley Floors. 30/43 Tue (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Partly Sunny and Cool. 28/47 Wed (11 Mar): Chance of Sprinkles. 32/50 Thu (12 Mar): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 35/53 Fri (13 Mar): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 36/56 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 9 09:02:38 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 09 Mar 2009 11:02:38 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 9th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 9th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A weather system dropped straight down the British Columbia Coastline and directly into Washington and Oregon Saturday. that brought light rain to western Oregon with rainfall amounts ranging from a few hundredths to about one-quarter of an inch. Snow levels never rose above about 2000 feet, with a few inches of new snow falling in the Cascades. A very cold upper-level trough followed the cold front Saturday night and Sunday, with instability showers falling as snow all the way down to sea level. Accumulations were light, on the valley floor, with most areas just seeing a light dusting that did not stick on the road surfaces. Another 3-7 inches of snow fell in the Cascades Sunday, with a couple of inches also reported over the coastal mountain passes. Total snowfall over the weekend locally exceeded a foot in sections of the Cascades. With some rain-shadow effects over the western valleys, much of the Willamette Valley had at least a little sunshine Sunday afternoon. However, with the very cold air mass in place across the region, high temperatures were only in the low to mid 40s (about 10-12 degrees below normal). Another upper-level disturbance, in a cold north-northwesterly flow aloft, was dropping sothward, from sotuhern British Columbia, this morning. It was acting to increase shower activity across western Washington and northwestern Oregon, with snow levels continuing near sea level. Scattered light rain and snow showers were falling, across the Willamette Valley this morning, with some snow mixing with the rain even along the northern and central Oregon Coast. Showers will increase later this morning, as the upper-level disturbance drops into northern Oregon. Daytime heating will lift the snow level to around 500-1000 feet by this afternoon, but snow could continue to mix down to sea level with heavier showers. Some showers could also produce small hail. Expect winter driving conditions over the coast range and Cascade passes, through early Tuesday. ODOT reports showed snow over all the mountain passes this morning. Another couple of inches of snow are likely over the coastal passes today with 3-6 inches of new snow over the Cascade passes. Snow accumulations should be less than 1 inch in the Willamette Valley this morning, before the showers at least mix with rain this afternoon. Valley temperatures were near their minimums at mid-morning (in the low to mid 30s). Doppler radar showed one line of showers just moving through the valley and another, stronger line of showers, coming over the coast range. The Portland Airport was reporting light rain, with a temperature of 36 degrees, but McMinnville and Salem were seeing light snow showers, with temperatures just above freezing. Some light snow showers were beginning to move into the south valley, from Corvallis to Eugene, where temperatures were near the freezing mark. The ODA surface analysis showed a weak trough of low pressure just moving onto the coastline and inducing southerly winds, around 10-20 mph, in the Willamette Valley. That trough, along with the associated upper-level disturbance, is forecast to move into northeastern Oregon this afternoon. That will turn surface and transport winds more westerly, with showers beginning to decrease this evening across western Oregon. An Arctic cold front was hleping to enhance the light snowfall along a line from Spokane to Seattle, Washington, at mid-morning. Northerly winds, on the north side of that front, were ushering below freezing air into the northern third of Washington. That front is expected to stall and weaken, across central Washington, later today. Surface Winds: S 5-15 G20 this morning, WSW 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 15 this morning, W 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:11pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:33am. Extended Outlook: Rain and snow showers should taper off tonight with gradually clearing skies across western Oregon. That will allow Willamette Valley temperatures to drop into the 20s with local record cold minimums possible. An upper-level ridge is forecast to bring a dry and cool northwesterly flow aloft to Oregon Tuesday. As the ridge builds into the coastline Wednesday, temperatures will begin to moderate, after another chilly morning, with near-record low temperatures. Surface winds will turn offshore Wednesday and strongly offshore Thursday, as the upper-level ridge builds directly over Oregon. Afternoon temperatures will continue to warm ,under mostly sunny skies, Thursday and Friday, but mornings will continue to be quite chilly. The next weather system will bring a chance of showers back to the region Saturday, under a cooler northwesterly flow aloft. Another Upper-level ridge is forecast to bring mostly sunny skies and moderating temperatures Sunday and Monday. Tomorrow (10 Mar): A Frosty Morning...Partly Sunny and Cool. 27/47 Wed (11 Mar): Near Record-Cold Morning. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 25/50 Thu (12 Mar): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 30/55 Fri (13 Mar): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 31/58 Sat (14 Mar): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 35/50 Sun (15 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 35/55 Mon (16 Mar): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 36/59 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 10 09:09:08 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 10 Mar 2009 11:09:08 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 10th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 10th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Weather Discussion: A cold northwesterly flow aloft helped a weakening Arctic cold front slowly sag southward, across most of Washington, overnight. An unseasonably cold air mass is on the north side of that frontal boundary. All but extreme southwestern Washington was well below freezing this morning with north or northeasterly winds. To the south of the front, onshore flow keep skies cloudy overnight across western Oregon with southerly winds helping to hold temperatures in the mid 30s across the Willamette Valley. Satellite imagery showed mostly cloudy skies along and south of the Arctic cold front, covering the southern third of Washington and most of Oregon. Doppler radar was indicating areas of very light precipitation near the frontal zone across extreme southern Washington and northern Oregon. The snow level is at the surface east of the Cascades and around 500 feet over northwest Oregon this morning, so a few snowflakes are possible even at low elevations again this morning. Expect winter driving conditions over the coast range and Cascade passes today. ODOT reports showed icy areas over the coast range and packed snow over the Cascade passes this morning. The air mass aloft is very cold, with Cascades pass temperatures only in the upper teens this morning. A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect until 10am for the Cascades, where another inch or two of snow could fall this morning. The Arctic frontal boundary is expected to continue to weaken and slowly sag south to over northern Oregon this afternoon. that should keep skies mostly cloudy today across the Willamette Valley with a slight chance of sprinkles or flurries. Light southerly winds will taper off this afternoon and become northerly tonight, as colder and drier air begins filtering into western Oregon. Afternoon temperaturs will struggle into the mid 40s (about 10 degrees below average). Partial clearing and the influx of colder air will drop valley temperatures well down into the 20s tonight with local record low temperatures possible. Surface Winds: S 5-10 this morning, S 3-8 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 10 this morning, WSW 8 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 50. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 44. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 58%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:12pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:31am. Extended Outlook: After a frosty morning on Wednesday, with near-record low temperatures, mostly sunny skies will help afternoon temperatures moderate into the upper 40s. Surface winds will turn offshore Wednesday and strongly offshore Thursday, as an upper-level ridge builds into the coastline and brings a dry northerly flow aloft. Afternoon temperatures will continue to warm, under mostly sunny skies, Thursday and Friday, but mornings will continue to be quite chilly. The next weather system will bring rain back to the region Friday night with showers continuing on Saturday. The air aloft will be cold enough to support snow down to Cascade pass levels Saturday. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week. There may still be some light rain over northwestern Oregon Sunday, but Monday is looking dry and warmer. It may become spring-like early next week, with increasing offshore flow yielding afternoon temperatures in the low to mid 60s. Tomorrow (11 Mar): Near Record-Cold Morning. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 24/48 Thu (12 Mar): Another Cold Start. Mostly Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 27/53 Fri (13 Mar): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. Increasing Clouds Late. 31/57 Sat (14 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 35/50 Sun (15 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of light Rain North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 38/53 Mon (16 Mar): A Brief Shot of Spring-like Conditions. Mostly Sunny. 39/63 Tue (17 Mar): Increasing Cloudy and Mild. 42/63 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 11 09:04:14 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 11 Mar 2009 11:04:14 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 12:00pm until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A cold northwesterly flow aloft helped a weakening Arctic cold front usher drier and cold air into the region overnight. Clouds slowly cleared across Oregon with temperatures dropping well below freezing on both sides of the Cascades. Willamette Valley minimums were generally in the mid to upper 20s this morning. Eugene dropped down to at least 24 degrees. Hillsboro was also one of the colder spots with a low of 25. Salem and Portland dipped to at least 29. It was quite cold east of the Cascades this morning, with many areas in the teens or colder. Meacham, in the blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, dropped to 11 degrees below zero and was still at -10 degrees at mid-morning. Sub-zero temperatures were also experienced across eastern Washington, where Deer Park, near Spokane, dropped to 12 degrees below zero. The cold air mass stretching from eastern Washington across Montana is one of the coldest ever on record for so late in the season. Minimums dropped to more than 25 degrees below zero across sections of Montana this morning. Satellite imagery showed areas of fog in the central and southern Willamette Valley this morning. Offshore flow kept the north valley clear overnight. Increasing offshore flow will continue to dry the air mass today, resuting in sunny skies across all of the region by this afternoon. even with a full day of March sunshine, temperatures will stay below normal, but to cold outflow from the Columbia Gorge and the near-record cold air mass in the Columbia Basin. Valley highs will only climb into the upper 40s (normal would be in the mid 50s). Stack burning was not allowed today due to north-northeasterly transport winds. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this morning, NNE 8-17 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 12 this morning, NE 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 45. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 48. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 46%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:13pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:30am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge is forecast to build into the west coast Thursday and Friday. That will bring adry conditions with moderating temperatures, although overnight minimums will remain chilly. After another frosty morning, on Thursday, sunny skies and offshore winds will help afternoon temperatures climb into the low to mid 50s. Afternoon temperatures will jump up about 5 degrees, on Friday, with another full day of sunshine and offshore flow at the surface. The next weather system will bring rain back to the region early Saturday with snow levels quickly dropping below the Cascade passes. The rain will turn to showers by late Saturday, but a warm front is forecast to bring more rain Sunday, especially in the north. Snow levels may lift above the Cascade passes by late Sunday, with increasing westerly flow aloft and southerly winds at the surface. The latest computer guidance is suggsting that a strong upper-level trough of low-pressure will develop over the eastern Pacific Ocean with southwesterly flow aloft over Oregon. The jet stream may be far enough south to keep Washington and western Oregon under cloudy skies with a good chance of rain. However, the latest computer guidance gives several possible jet stream positions, so the jury is still out as to how wet it will be next week. A slight northward shift of the jet stream would bring spring-like conditions to the region, but a more southern track would bring increasing amounts of rain. In any case, it should be mild, with southwesterly flow aloft. My forecast reflects a middle-of-the-road solution for now. Tomorrow (12 Mar): Another Cold Start. Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. 25/53 Fri (13 Mar): Frosty Morning. Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. Clouds Late. 28/57 Sat (14 Mar): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/50 Sun (15 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Light Rain Likely...Mainly North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 38/53 Mon (16 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. 40/57 Tue (17 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. 40/57 Wed (18 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. 40/55 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 12 09:05:19 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 11:05:19 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 12th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A north-northwesterly flow aloft helped a modifying Arctic air slowly settle southward across Oregon Wednesday. Even with clearing skies allowing for a full day of warming March sunshine, afternoon temperatures only climbed into the upper 40s across most of the Willamette Valley. Corvallis did manage to hit 50 degrees, for the warm spot in the valley, but that was still about 5 degrees below average. Clear skies and a dry air mass allowed for rapid cooling of the low-level air mass overnight across the entire state. Willamette Valley minimums dipped as low as the mid 20s this morning, with windy areas staying near freezing. It was quite cold, again, east of the Cascades this morning, with many areas in the teens or colder. Meacham, in the blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, dropped to 11 degrees below zero for the second consecutive morning. The unseasonalby cold Arctic air mass stretched from Oregon and Washington, eastward across much of the country this morning. Below zero temperatures extended from northeastern Oregon and eastern Washington to the center of the cold dome, in Minnesota. Satellite imagery showed clear skies over Oregon this morning. Strong offshore flow was keeing dry air over the region, along with blustery north-northeasterly winds. Temperatures ranged from the upper 20s to the mid 30s across western Oregon, at mid-morning, with all areas east of the Cascades still well below freezing. The air aloft is warmer this morning, with the freezing level over Salem measure at 7600 feet. That will help high temperatures climb into the 50s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon under sunny skies. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, NNE 7-17 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 15 this morning, NE 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 51. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 54. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 32%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:15pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:28am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Friday for another sunny day. After a frosty morning, high temperatures should climb to near normal (mid 50s). Clouds will increase Friday evening, ahead of what appears will be a very damp weekend. A couple of weather systems, dropping into the region from the Gulf of Alaska, will bring substantial rain and mountain snow to Oregon Saturday and Saturday night. A warm front will continue the rain and snow Sunday, with snow levels lifting above the Cascade passes by the afternoon. Southerly winds may become blustery Sunday afternoon and evening, especially along the coast, with mild temperatures. The long-range computer model forecasts are still not consistent on their forecast storm track position for early next week, but the trend is for a strong west-southwesterly jet stream to take aim at Washington and northwest Oregon. That has the potential to bring significant precipitation to the region throug Monday...especially across western Washington. Southerly surface winds should keep temperatures mild, mainly in the overnight periods. The storm track is forecast to weaken and shift slightly north late Tuesday and Wednesday. A weaker system is forecast to move onshore Thursday. Tomorrow (13 Mar): Frosty Morning. Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. Clouds Late. 28/57 Sat (14 Mar): Rain...Possibly Heavy at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/49 Sun (15 Mar): Rain. Increasing Southerly Winds. Snow Level Lifting to 5000 Feet Late. 42/53 Mon (16 Mar): Rain Likely...Mainly North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 43/57 Tue (17 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. 42/55 Wed (18 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/55 Thu (19 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 12 12:06:31 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:06:31 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 12th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update scheduled for Monday, March 16th, 2009 at 9:00am... NOON UPDATE Issued: Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 4:00pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: Clear skies and a dry air mass allowed for rapid cooling of the low-level air mass overnight across the entire state. Willamette Valley minimums dipped as low as the mid 20s this morning, with windy areas staying near freezing. It was quite cold, again, east of the Cascades this morning, with many locations setting daily low-temperature records. Meacham, in the blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, dropped to 12 degrees below zero this morning, breaking the old daily record by 16 degrees. New daily record minimums were also set at Pendleton (19 degrees), John day (12 degrees), Redmond (9 degrees), The dalles (20 degrees), and Rome (12 degrees). Many of the old records that were broken today were established in the 1950s and 1960s. Many record minimums were also set in central and eastern Washington, including Spokane with a low of just 8 degrees. That broke the old record low of 9 degrees set way back in 1906. The unseasonalby cold Arctic air mass stretched eastward across much of the country this morning. Below zero temperatures extended eastward to Minnesota this morning. Satellite imagery showed clear skies over Oregon this morning, with the exception of some low clouds in the Rogue River Basin of southwestern Oregon. Strong offshore flow was keeing dry air over the region, along with blustery north-northeasterly winds. Late-morning temperatures ranged from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across western Oregon with many areas east of the Cascades still below freezing. The air aloft is warmer this morning, with the freezing level over Salem measured at 7600 feet. That will help high temperatures climb into the low 50s across the Willamette Valley this afternoon under sunny skies. Surface Winds: NNE 7-17 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 51. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 35%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:15pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:28am. Extended Outlook: An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Friday for another sunny day. After a frosty morning, high temperatures should climb to near normal (mid 50s). Clouds will increase Friday evening, ahead of what appears will be a very damp weekend. A couple of weather systems, dropping into the region from the Gulf of Alaska, will bring substantial rain and mountain snow to Oregon Saturday and Saturday night. A warm front will continue the rain and snow Sunday, with snow levels lifting above the Cascade passes by the afternoon. Southerly winds may become blustery Sunday afternoon and evening, especially along the coast, with mild temperatures. The long-range computer model forecasts are still not consistent on their forecast storm track position for early next week, but the trend is for a strong west-southwesterly jet stream to take aim at Washington and northwest Oregon. That has the potential to bring significant precipitation to the region throug Monday...especially across western Washington. Southerly surface winds should keep temperatures mild, mainly in the overnight periods. The storm track is forecast to weaken and shift slightly north late Tuesday and Wednesday. A weaker system is forecast to move onshore Thursday night and Friday. Tomorrow (13 Mar): Frosty Morning. Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. Clouds Late. 28/57 Sat (14 Mar): Rain...Possibly Heavy at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/49 Sun (15 Mar): Rain. Increasing Southerly Winds. Snow Level Lifting to 5000 Feet Late. 42/53 Mon (16 Mar): Rain Likely...Mainly North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 43/57 Tue (17 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. 42/55 Wed (18 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 39/55 Thu (19 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain Late. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 40/54 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 16 09:04:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 16 Mar 2009 11:04:04 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 16th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 16th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front brought high winds, locally heavy rain, and mountain snow to Washington and Oregon over the weekend. Ahead of the cold front, the air mass was just cold enough for wet snow to fall across much of northwestern Washington early Sunday. A couple of inches fell in the Seattle area Sunday morning, with one-half inch of snow falling at Sea-Tac Airport. That brought their 2008-9 winter-season snow total up to 23.3 inches...which ties for the 6th snowiest winter on record. The snowiest winter was 1968-9, when Sea-Tac Airport received 67.5 inches of snow. Significant amounts of rain and wind battered the lowlands of western Oregon over the weekend. Most of the coastline received about two inches of rain with southerly winds gusting as high as 70 mph at Cape Foulweather, north of Newport, and 60 mph at Depoe Bay. The Willamette Valley picked up between three-quarters and 1.5 inches of rain with southerly winds, gusting as high as 45 mph, downing some trees. Heavy snow fell in the mountains, above about 3000 feet, along with blustery winds. Timberline Lodge, at the 6000-foot mark on Mt. Hood, reported 20 inches of new snow in the past 72 hours. Mt. Hood Meadows received 13 inches of snow in the past 24 hours. 16 inches of new snow fell at Mt. Bachelor, in central Oregon, and 13 inches over Willamette Pass. Snow levels dropped low enough over the weekend for some wet snow at times over the higher coastal mountain passes. ODOT road reports showed spots of ice, but mostly just wet pavement, over the coastal passes this morning. The Cascade passes were snow-packed with locally heavy snow and gusty winds making for very difficult traveling. Pass temperatures were in the mid to upper 20s. The National Weather Service still has a Winter Weather Advisory in effect for the Cascades, where another 4-8 inches of snow are likely today. The wintry travel conditions will likely continue through tonight with continued snow showers. A strong west-southwesterly flow aloft will continue to circulate bands of showers onshore across Washington and Oregon today. The air mass is quite cool, with the freezing levels over Salem and Medford measured at just 3200 feet and 5200 feet respectively. That puts the snow level at just 2000 feet in the north and 4000 feet across extreme southern Oregon. Daytime heating could make the atmophere unstable enough for a thundershower and/or small hail this afternoon. Mid-morning temperatures were in the low 40s across western Oregon, and afternoon highs will only climb into the upper 40s. Southerly winds will not be as strong today but blustery near showers. Surface Winds: S 5-15 G25 this morning, SW 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 25 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 150. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 49. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:20pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:20am. Extended Outlook: Little change in the overall weather pattern is expected Tuesday, followed by a slight northward shift of the jet stream on Wednesday, in response to an approaching frontal system. That will lift snow levels a bit, with the showery precipitation turning to a more steady rainfall...mainly north. The jet stream will migrate further north Thursday, with the main storm track shifting into western Washington. The jet stream is forecast to drop back southward to over Oregon Friday, with increasing rain and mountain snow. Tomorrow (17 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2500-3500 feet. 38/51 Wed (18 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level Lifting to 4-5000 Feet. 40/53 Thu (19 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 42/56 Fri (20 Mar): Increasing Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 43/54 Sat (21 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 40/52 Sun (22 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 39/51 Mon (23 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2500 Feet. 37/53 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 17 09:03:06 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 17 Mar 2009 11:03:06 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 17th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 17th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: A cool and unstable air mass combined with strong onshore flow to bring vigorous shower activity to Washington and Oregon Monday. Some showers contained small hail Monday afternoon with the snow level dropping as low as 1000 feet in the coast range overnight. Much of western Oregon received between one-quarter and one-half inch of rain, from the showers, on Monday. Considerable snow fell in the Cascades Monday. On Mt. Hood, Timberline lodge picked up 9 inches of new snow, with 11 inches reported at Mt. Hood Meadows. Mt. Bachelor reported 17 inces of new snow, since Monday morning. ODOT cameras revelaed snow-packed Cascade passes this morning, from Government Camp to Willamette Pass. Snow levels remain quite low this morning, with snow falling in the higher elevations of the coast range and over the Cascade passes. There was even a fresh layer of slush reported on Sunset Summit (Hwy 26), over the northern coast range. Satellite imagery this morning showed an enhanced area of cloudiness rotating onshore into northwestern Oregon, likely associated with a strong westerly jet stream. Doppler radar showed considerable showers over northwestern Oregon...mainly from Corvallis northward. A few rain and snow showers were also being reported over central and eastern Oregon, in spite of the strong rain shadow effect, due to the strong westerly flow aloft flowing across the Cascades. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at just 3300 and 4900 feet respectively early this morning. Showers should taper off across the southern half of Oregon this afternoon, as the jet stream begins to migrate northward. However, the air mass aloft should remain cold enough to maintain shower activity across northern Oregon. Western Oregon temperatuers were in the low to mid 40s at mid morning. The ODa surface analysis showed southerly gradients and winds could still become rather blustery near showers today. Valley highs should only climb into the low 50s. Surface Winds: S 10-15 G25 this morning, SW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 25 this morning, SW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 125. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 63%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:21pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:18am. Extended Outlook: The jet stream is forecast to shift northward, to over southern British Columbia, tonight and Wednesday. A warm front, moving north into Washington, will lift snow levels above the Cascade passes Wednesday, as the precipitation tapers off. A weak cold front will sag southward...renewing the threat of light rain across mainly northwestern Oregon by Thursday afternoon. The jet stream is forecast to drop southward, over Oregon, Friday. A cold front will bring rain and drop the snow levels below the Cascade passes by Friday afternoon. A cool, showery air mass will swing onshore Saturday with a transitory ridge bringing some drying Sunday, but snow levels will remain below the Cascade passes. Another cold front is forecast to renew the rain and mountain snow by Monday afternoon, folowed by more cool showers Tuesday. There is some indication that a stronger upper-level ridge may begin building over the region about Wednesday of next week, for warmer and drier conditions. Tomorrow (18 Mar): Mostly Cloudy and Warmer. Snow Level Lifting to 4-5000 Feet. 40/57 Thu (19 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/59 Fri (20 Mar): Increasing Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 43/54 Sat (21 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 40/52 Sun (22 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/52 Mon (23 Mar): Increasing Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 37/52 Tue (24 Mar): Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 Feet. 37/51 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 18 09:02:39 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 11:02:39 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 18th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 4:30pm. Forecast Today: Mostly Cloudy and Mild. Salem high near 60. Weather Discussion: Showers tapered off across northwest Oregon Tuesday evening, but skies remained cloudy overnight, in response to a warm front moving into northwest Washington. Rainfall amounts Tuesday ranged from about one-quarter of an inch along the north coast to only a few hundredths of an inch in the southern Willamette Valley. Temperatures generally stayed in the low 40s overnight, across western Oregon, with a few spots dipping into the upper 30s. Pressure gradients relaxed overnight, and valley winds became calm. The ODA surface analysis and satellite imagery showed a cold front moving into northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia and trailing offshore to about 300 miles off the northern Oregon Coast. A warm front was producing rain as far south as the central Washington Coast with cloudy skies covering Washington and most of Oregon. Weak upper-level ridging over Oregon is forecast to lift the warm front into northern Washington and southern British Columbia this afternoon, with the cold front slowly sagging into northwestern Washington late in the day. Light rain could spread as far south as the northern Oregon Coast this morning and inland into western Washinton. The interior of western Oregon will likely stay dry, although skies should remain mostly cloudy. Warmer air aloft pushed the freezing level over Medford to 8000 feet early this morning (up from 4900 feet Tuesday morning). The freezing level over Salem had not climbed as much and was measured at 4500 feet this morning. The air aloft should continue to warm today, with the freezing level over northern Oregon rising to about 6000 feet. Light southerly winds and warmer air aloft should help temperatures approach 60 degrees across the Willamette Valley this afternoon...especially south. Surface Winds: SE 0-5 this morning, SSW 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 7 this morning, SSW 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 35. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 51%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: A cold front will weaken as it sags southward, across northwestern Oregon, Thursday. That will maintain mostly cloudy and mild conditions with some light rain possible at times...mainly in the north valley. The front will act to maintain good ventilation conditions across western Oregon with south-southwesterly transport winds. A stronger system is forecast to swing onshore Friday afternoon, with snow levels dropping back below the Cascade passes by Friday evening. An upper-level trough will swing onshore Saturday, but the main jet stream energy will be focused south of the region, over California. Skies should stay mostly cloudy over Oregon with numerous showers and continued farily low snow levels. Showers should taper off Sunday, as the upper-level trough moves eastward into the Rockies. The long-range computer models have greatly differing solutions beginning early next week, so confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday is low. A slight north or south shift in the forecast jet stream position can make a huge difference in our weather this time of year. Next week could end up being quite mild and mostly dry or on the damp side. Western Washington stands a much better chance of being wet for much of next week, but even that is not certain at this time. A transitory ridge may hold on through most of Monday, but it appears that a cold front will sag south far enough to bring some rain to western Washington and a chance of rain to northwestern Oregon Tuesday and Wednesday. Thu (19 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/59 Fri (20 Mar): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 4-5000 Feet. 44/54 Sat (21 Mar): Showers with Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Sun (22 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/52 Mon (23 Mar): Partly Sunny. Freezing Level Rising to 5000 feet. 35/58 Tue (24 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/58 Wed (25 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 42/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 18 12:11:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 18 Mar 2009 14:11:04 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 18th, 2009 at 12:00pm. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Monday, March 23rd at 9:00am... Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:30pm. Forecast Today: Filtered Sunshine and Mild. Salem high near 60. Weather Discussion: Showers tapered off across northwest Oregon Tuesday evening, but skies remained cloudy overnight, in response to a warm front moving into northwest Washington. Rainfall amounts Tuesday ranged from about one-quarter of an inch along the north coast to only a few hundredths of an inch in the southern Willamette Valley. Temperatures generally stayed in the low 40s overnight, across western Oregon, with a few spots dipping into the upper 30s. Pressure gradients relaxed overnight, and valley winds became calm. The late-morning ODA surface analysis and satellite imagery showed a cold front moving into northern Vancouver Island, British Columbia and trailing offshore to about 300 miles off the northern Oregon Coast. A warm front was producing rain as far south as the northern Washington Coast with lots of middle and high clouds extending south over Oregon. Weak upper-level ridging over Oregon is forecast to lift the warm front into southern British Columbia this afternoon, with the cold front slowly sagging into northwestern Washington this evening. Oregon should stay dry with filtered sunshine and mild south winds this afternoon. Warmer air aloft pushed the freezing level over Medford to 8000 feet early this morning (up from 4900 feet Tuesday morning). The freezing level over Salem had not climbed as much and was measured at 4500 feet this morning. The air aloft should continue to warm today, with the freezing level over northern Oregon rising to about 6000 feet. Light southerly winds and warmer air aloft should help temperatures reach 60 degrees across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Surface Winds: S 3-7 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 7 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 35. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 60. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:22pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am. Extended Outlook: A cold front will weaken as it sags southward, across northwestern Oregon, Thursday. That will maintain mostly cloudy and mild conditions with some light rain possible at times...mainly in the north valley. The front will act to maintain good ventilation conditions across western Oregon with south-southwesterly transport winds. A stronger system is forecast to swing onshore Friday afternoon, with snow levels dropping back below the Cascade passes by Friday evening. An upper-level trough will swing onshore Saturday, but the main jet stream energy will be focused south of the region, over California. Skies should stay mostly cloudy over Oregon, with rain at times, and continued farily low snow levels. Showers should taper off Sunday, as the upper-level trough moves eastward into the Rockies. The long-range computer models have greatly differing solutions beginning early next week, so confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday is low. A weakening cold front may bring some light rain to western Oregon by Monday afternoon. A ridge is forecast to bring some drying Tuesday, but it is uncertain how long the dry weather will last. Thu (19 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 40/59 Fri (20 Mar): Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 4-5000 Feet. 44/54 Sat (21 Mar): Rain at Times with Mountain Snow. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 40/53 Sun (22 Mar): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 3000 Feet. 37/52 Mon (23 Mar): Increasing Chance of Light Rain. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 35/57 Tue (24 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 6000 Feet. 39/59 Wed (25 Mar): Increasing Clouds and Mild. Snow Level 6-7000 Feet. 40/62 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon Mar 23 09:08:46 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 23 Mar 2009 11:08:46 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, March 23rd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, March 23rd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 4:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 4:30pm. Weather Discussion: A cold upper-level trough moved over the Pacific Northwest thsi past weekend and brought widespread shower activity wit snow levels below the Cascades passes. Precipitation amounts over the weekend were heaviest in the mountains, due to upsloping westerly flow aloft. Timberline Lodge, on Mt. Hood, received 13 inches of snow in the past 72 hours, with almost a foot in the past 24 hours. Mt. Hood Meadows received 4 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours. Only about 2 inches of snow fell over Santiam pass last night, but Willamette pass picked up 8 inches of new snow overnight. The coldest air aloft with this system moved in Sunday evening, with he snow level dipping to about 1000 feet Sunday night. About one-half inch of snow was reported at just 1100 feet, near Gates, on Hwy 22 east of Salem this morning. The freezing levels over Salem and Medford were measured at just 2500 and 2100 feet repectively early this morning. Rainfall in the lowlands was heaviest at the coast and across southwestern Oregon this past weekend. Amounts along the coast ranged from about one-quarter of an inch north to three-quarters of an inch south. Much of southwesterln Oregon picked up about one-quarter to one-third of an inch. Lighter amounts of rain and some hail fell in the Willamette Valley, with amounts around one-tenth of an inch common. The south valley, near Eugene, locally picked up more than one-quarter of an inch of rain. Showers tapered off overnight with clearing skies allowing temperatures to locally fall below freezing across western Oregon. Hillsboro dropped down to 29 degrees, and Eugene dipped to 31. Medford, in southwestern Oregon, dropped to 28 degrees. Middle and high clouds were increasing, at mid-morning, ahead of a warm front approaching the Washington and Oregon coast. The ODA surface analysis showed increasing sotuherly pressure gradients, and south winds were picking up in the 5-15 mph range in the Willamette Valley. Light rain will move onto the coastline later this morning and into the Willamette Valley early this afternoon. Southerly winds will continue to increase and may become blustery this afternoon, especially along the coast, where gusts to 45 mph are possible. Gust to near 30 mph are possible this afternoon in the Willamette Valley. Cloudy skies and increasing rain will cap high temperatures in the upper 40s, close to 10 degrees below average. Snow levels will stay below the Cascade passes with several inches of new snow likely later today and tonight. Valley rainfall amounts should be between one-tenth and one-quarter of an inch late this afternoon through tonight. Surface Winds: SSE 10-20 this morning, S 10-20 G30 this afternoon. Transport Winds: S 20 this morning, S 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 105. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 48. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:29pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:07am. Extended Outlook: A cold front will move across western Oregon tonight with some showers continuing on Tuesday. snow levels will lift to about 4000 feet Tuesday afternoon, and valley highs will climb closer to normal. Another system will drop int the region, from the northwest, Tuesday night and Wednesday, with more valley rain and higher elevation snow. Snow levels should hold around 4000 feet. A trasitory ridge is forecast to bring some drying Thursday. A weak system is forecast to brush by the northern sections of Oregon Friday afternoon and night. A cool northwesterly flow aloft is forecast for next weekend with a continued slight chance of showers...mainly north. The ridge may build into the coastline enough for drying and warming early next week. Tue (24 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level Rising to 4000 Feet. 40/54 Wed (25 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 40/52 Thu (26 Mar): Partly Sunny. Snow Level 5000 feet. 37/56 Fri (27 Mar): Slight Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 35/55 Sat (28 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 37/56 Sun (29 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly North. 38/57 Mon (30 Mar): Partly Cloudy. 38/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 24 08:59:35 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 24 Mar 2009 10:59:35 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 24th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 24th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: Rain spread onto the coast Monday morning and into the Willamette Valley Monday afternoon. Showers continued overnight. Total rainfall amounts ranged from one-tenth to near one-half inch of rain along the coast and from a few hundredths to almost one-quarter of an inch in the Willamette Valley. Upsloping westerly flow aloft produced greater amounts of precipitation in the mountains. The snow level started near 1000 feet Monday morning and stayed below 3000 feet through Monday evening. By this morning, continued westerly flow aloft had lifted the freezing levels over Salem and Medford to 4400 and 4700 feet respectively. That puts the snow level this morning between 3000 and 3500 feet. ODOT road reports and cameras show snow-packed road surfaces over the Cascade passes this morning with snow continuing to fall and pass temperatures in the upper 20s. Temperatures aloft were just warm enough for the coastal passes to get plain old rain. Cloudy skies and areas of drizzle and/or very light rain were continuing in the Willamette Valley. The clouds held temperatures mostly in the low 40s overnight through mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies stretching across Washington, Oregon, and most of Idaho. Doppler radar showed decreasing precipitation over western Oregon with some light rain and snow also making it across mainly the northern half of central and eastern Oregon. The ODA surface analysis indicated that a weakening frontal zone was pushing across western Washington and western Oregon at mid-morning. Pressure gradients were southerly in the Willamette Valley and turned more westerly along the coast. Weak pressure gradients were generating light winds east of the Cascades. Western Oregon temperatures were in the 40-45 degree range. Temperatures across central and eastern Oregon were elevation dependent and mostly in the 30s. Light snow was being reported in John Day and at Meacham. Pendleton was seeing some light rain, but they were also the warm spot eastside with 40 degrees. 5 inches of new snow fell overnight at Timberline Lodge and Mt. Hood Meadows. Mt Bachelor picked up 3 inches of new snow. The frontal zone will continue to weaken as it pushes east of the Cascades this afternoon. Snow levels will remain in the 3-4000 foot range. Another 1-4 inches of snow are possible, over the Cascade passes, before the snow tapers off later this afternoon. Areas of light rain this morning will give way to a few light showers this afternoon across western Oregon. Skies should reamin mostly cloudy, but slightly warmer air aloft will help valley temperatures climb into the low 50s this afternoon. Highs on Monday were only in the mid to upper 40s. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, SW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 15 this morning, SW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2400 feet. Ventilation index 36. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 69%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:05am. Extended Outlook: A fast moving northwesterly jet stream will direct a stronger weather system southward into the region Wednesday. valley rain and mountain snow will increase, from northwest to southeast, across the state during the day. Colder air aloft will lower to snow level to between 2500 and 3000 feet, with up to a foot of new snow possible in the Cascades. Due to the potential for heavy snow and strong winds, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for the cascades valid from late tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Rainfall amounts in the valley Wednesday should be around one-quarter of an inch with the greatest amounts in the north. A transitory ridge is forecast to bring dry and slightly warmer weather Thursday. A weak system is forecast to brush across Washington, and perhaps as far south as northern Oregon, on Friday. A stronger system is forecast to drop further south, into the region, in a cool northwesterly flow aloft Saturday. After some weak ridging Sunday, another system may drop into the region early next week. Tomorrow (25 Mar): Rain Likely. Snow Level Dropping to 2500-3000 Feet. 40/50 Thu (26 Mar): Becoming Partly Sunny. Snow Level Rising to 4-5000 feet. 34/54 Fri (27 Mar): Slight Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Warmer. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 36/59 Sat (28 Mar): Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 39/56 Sun (29 Mar): Slight Chance of Showers...Mainly North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 39/57 Mon (30 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 37/55 Tue (31 Mar): Showers Ending Early. Partly Sunny in the Afternoon. 39/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed Mar 25 09:09:17 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 25 Mar 2009 11:09:17 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, March 25th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, March 25th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: A vigorous upper-level trough dropped southward, into Washington and Oregon, overnight. Satellite imagery showed cloudy skies covering both states this morning with surface and radar reports indicating widespread precipitation on both sides of the Cascades. The mian jet stream energy is over and east of the Cascades. The heaviest snow fell overnight in the Washington Cascades, where total snowfall amounts will be around 10-20 inches. In the northern Oregon Cascades, Timberline Lodge received 8 inches of new snow overnight. Lighter smounts extended further south, with Mt. Bachelor picking up 3 inches of new snow. Rainfall amounts west of the Cascades overnight ranged from just a few hundredths of an inch in the Willamette Valley to more than one-quarter of an inch along the north coast. Light rain was continuing to fall along the coast and across the Willamette Valley this morning. Snow was increasing in the Cascades with pass temperatures in the mid to upper 20s. Rain and mountain snow will continue for much of today and taper off this evening, as the upper-level disturbance slides into Idaho. The snow level is about 3000 feet north and 4500 feet over southern Oregon. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the northern Oregon Cascades for up to 15 inches total snow accumulation from this storm. Valley rainfall amounts could approach one-quarter of an inch. Cloudy skies held overnight temperatures in the low to mid 40s west of the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed southerly gradients across the Willamette Valley this morning, which should turn more westerly later today. Afternoon temperatures will struggle to reach 50 degrees, due to clouds and light rain. Surface Winds: S 7-17 this morning, SW 7-17 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 17 this morning, WNW 17 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3500 feet. Ventilation index 60. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 50. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 68%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:31pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:03am. Extended Outlook: A transitory ridge is forecast to build into the coastline Thursday, with conditions drying out across Oregon. A weak warm front will likely keep skies mostly cloudy. It may be strong enough to produce some sprinkles, mainly along the coast and in the northern Willamette Valley, Thursday afternoon and night. The jet stream is forecast to migrate slightly northward Friday, with skies staying mostly cloudy across Washington and extreme northern Oregon. Some sprinkles are possible near the Washington border, with a few sunbreaks in the south valley. The snow level will lift to around 5000 over northern Oregon and to 6-7000 feet over southern Oregon. Willamette Valley temperatures will moderate to near, or even slightly above, normal...especially south. A vigorous cold front is forecast to swing onshore Saturday afternoon and night, with more rain, wind, and rapidly lowering snow levels. Showers will taper off Sunday, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves over the region. An active weather pattern is forcast for next week. Another vigorous cold front is forecast to sweep across Washington and Oregon Monday with some drying Tuesday. More storms are likely late Wednesday through Friday with snow levels dropping below the Cascade passes. Thu (26 Mar): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Sprinkles. Snow Level Rising to 4-5000 feet. 37/54 Fri (27 Mar): Chance of Sprinkles...Mainly North. Warmer. Snow Level 5-7000 Feet. 40/59 Sat (28 Mar): Increasing Rain & Blustery. Snow Level Dropping to 2000 Feet Late. 42/53 Sun (29 Mar): Showers Ending...Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level Lifting to 3500 Feet Late. 36/52 Mon (30 Mar): Increasing Rain and Mountain Snow. Snow Level Dropping to 2-3000 Feet. 37/50 Tue (31 Mar): Showers Decreasing and Cool. Snow Level 2-3000 feet. 34/53 Wed (01 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Rain Late. 34/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 26 09:09:17 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2009 11:09:17 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, March 26th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies cleared overnight across western Oregon, as an upper-level disturbance slid southeastward into Idaho and Utah. That allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s with some areas dipping below freezing. Hillsboro was one of the coldest spots with a minimum of 29 degrees. Aurora fell to 34 and McMinnville bottomed out at 35. Corvallis and Salem both recorded minimums of 37 degrees. Clearing skies also allowed temperatures to dip close to the freezing mark along the north coast. Astoria dropped down to 34 degrees. Slowly clearing helped temperatures east of the Cascades fal mostly into the teens and 20s. With a fresh snow-cover, Meacham, in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, was the cold spot in the state with a minimum of just 14 degrees. Mid-morning satellite imagery showed middle and high clouds moving onto the Washington and northern Oregon coast, in response to an approaching warm front about 200 miles offshore. Skies were mostly clear across Oregon, except for pockets of valley low clouds on both sides of the Cascades. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure centered over eastern Washington and a low-pressure center over northern California, west of Reno, Nevada. That was producing very weak northerly gradients across western Oregon and a little stronger gradients east of the Cascades. Willamette Valley winds were generally north-northeasterly from 0-5 mph with temperatures in the 30s and low 40s. North-northwesterly winds were cutting across eastern Oregon, where temperatures were generally in the 20s and low 30s. The Salem soundinn this morning indicated some cooling and drying of the air mass, in the wake of the disturbance that moved through yesterday. The freezing level was at just 3000 feet. Middle and high clouds will continue to increase across western Oregon today, as a weak warm front offshore slowly moves northeastward towarsd the Washington Coast. The freezing level should lift to near 6000 feet by late this afternoon. Warmer air aloft will act to suppress mixing heights and convection this afternoon. Valley temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s, even with the increased cloud-cover. Transport winds will remain fairly light and turn more westerly by late this afternoon. As the warm front moves onshore tonight, clouds will lower and thicken enough for a chance of sprinkles or light rain...mainly along the coast. Surface Winds: NNE 0-5 this morning, NW 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NE 8 this morning, NNW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2400 feet. Ventilation index 19. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:02am. Extended Outlook: The jet stream is forecast to migrate slightly northward Friday. A dissipating warm front should keep skies mostly cloudy across Washington and northern Oregon. Some sprinkles are possible, along with a few sunbreaks. The snow level will remain around 5000 over northern Oregon and to 6-7000 feet over southern Oregon. Willamette Valley temperatures should be slightly above normal for a change. A vigorous cold front is forecast to swing onshore late Saturday afternoon and night, with more rain, wind, and rapidly lowering snow levels. Showers will taper off Sunday, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves over the region. Another cold front is forecast to sweep across Washington and northern Oregon Monday with some drying Tuesday. More storms are forecast to swing across southern British Columbia Wednesday through Friday but may extend far enough south to bring some rain to mainly northern Oregon. Fri (27 Mar): Chance of Sprinkles...Mainly North. Mild. Snow Level 5-7000 Feet. 40/61 Sat (28 Mar): PM Rain and Blustery. Snow Level 4500 Feet...Dropping Late. 42/54 Sun (29 Mar): Showers Ending...Mostly Cloudy. Snow Level Lifting to 3500 Feet Late. 36/52 Mon (30 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 37/54 Tue (31 Mar): Showers and Cooler. Snow Level 3000 feet. 37/52 Wed (01 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Increasing Chance of Rain Late. 34/57 Thu (02 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of light Rain...Mainly North. 37/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu Mar 26 12:22:33 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 26 Mar 2009 14:22:33 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 26th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next update scheduled for Monday, March 30th, 2009 at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, March 26th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies cleared overnight across western Oregon, as an upper-level disturbance slid southeastward into Idaho and Utah. That allowed temperatures to drop into the 30s with some areas dipping below freezing. Hillsboro was one of the coldest spots with a minimum of 28 degrees. Aurora fell to 33. McMinnville and Salem bottomed out at 34. Corvallis recorded a minimum of 37 degrees, followed closely by Eugene at 38. Clearing skies also allowed temperatures to dip close to the freezing mark along the north coast. Astoria dropped down to 34 degrees. Slowly clearing skies helped temperatures east of the Cascades drop into the teens and 20s. With a fresh snow-cover, Meacham, in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, was the cold spot in the state with a minimum of just 14 degrees. Late-morning satellite imagery showed middle and high clouds covering the western half of both Washington and Oregon, in advance of a weak warm front about 200 miles offshore. Skies were mostly sunny east of the Cascades, except for areas of low clouds in some higher valley spots like La Grande. The late-morning ODA surface analysis continued to show high pressure centered over eastern Washington and low-pressure over northern California. That was producing very weak northerly gradients across western Oregon and stronger northwesterly gradients east of the Cascades. Willamette Valley winds had backed from northeasterly to northerly at around 5 mph. Brisk northwesterly winds were gusting over 30 mph across the eastern third of the state. Temperatures were in the mid 40s to low 50s across western Oregon, with 30s and 40s east of the Cascades. The Salem sounding this morning showed a pretty cold air mass over the region with the freezing level at just 3000 feet. Middle and high clouds will continue to increase across western Oregon today, as the offshore warm front slowly moves northeastward towards the Washington Coast. The freezing level should lift to near 6000 feet by late this afternoon. Warmer air aloft will act to suppress mixing heights and convection this afternoon, so generally dry and mild conditions will prevail. Doppler radar was showing possible areas of sprinkles or light rain moving onto the central Oregon Coast and into the coastal range, so some afternoon sprinkles are not out of the question. Valley temperatures should warm into the mid to upper 50s, even with the increased cloud-cover. Transport winds will remain fairly light and turn slightly more westerly by late this afternoon. As the warm front moves onshore tonight, there is a better chance of sprinkles or light rain...mainly along the coast. Cloudy skies should keep overnight temperatures near 40 degrees across the Willamette Valley with light winds. Surface Winds: NW 5 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 5 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 2400 feet. Ventilation index 19. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 57. Humidities: Relative humidity drops to 50% by 2pm. Minimum relative humidity will be near 47%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:33pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:02am. Extended Outlook: The jet stream is forecast to migrate slightly northward Friday, with skies staying mostly cloudy across Washington and extreme northern Oregon. Some sprinkles are possible near the Washington border, and along the coast, with a few sunbreaks in the Willamette Valley. The snow level will remain around 5000 over northern Oregon and to 6-7000 feet over southern Oregon. Willamette Valley temperatures should be slightly above normal. A vigorous cold front is forecast to swing onshore Saturday afternoon and night, with more rain, wind, and rapidly lowering snow levels. Showers will taper off Sunday, as a transitory upper-level ridge moves over the region. Another cold front is forecast to sweep across Washington and northern Oregon Monday with some drying Tuesday. More storms are forecast to swing across southern British Columbia Wednesday through Friday but may extend far enough south to bring some rain to mainly northern Oregon. Fri (27 Mar): Chance of Sprinkles...Mainly North. Mild. Snow Level 5-7000 Feet. 40/61 Sat (28 Mar): PM Rain & Blustery. Snow Level 4500 Feet...Dropping Late. 42/54 Sun (29 Mar): Showers Ending...PM Clearing. Snow Level Lifting to 3500 Feet Late. 36/52 Mon (30 Mar): Increasing Chance of Rain...Mainly North. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 37/54 Tue (31 Mar): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 feet. 37/53 Wed (01 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. 37/56 Thu (02 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Rain...Mainly North. 37/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 31 09:13:55 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 11:13:55 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: A warm front spread clouds across much of Washington and Oregon overnight. Some light rain and snow fell across northwestern Oregon, with the snow level over the northern Cascades lifting from arond 2500 feet Monday afternoon to around 4000 feet early this morning. Government Camp, on Mt. Hood, and Santiam Pass both picked up some light snow overnight, but amounts were generally around an inch or less. Mid morning pass temperatures were near 30 degrees. The greatest rainfall in the past 24 hours was along the the north coast. Astoria recieved just over one-tenth of an inch. The northern Willamette Valley only picked up a few hundredths of an inch, and the south valley got little to no rain. CLoudy skies and increasing southerly winds held temperatures mostly in the low lows overnight. Mid-morning readings were in the low to mid 40s across western Oregon. South-southwesterly winds had increased to around 10-20 mph in the Willamette Valley and southwesterly winds were gusting over 20 mph along the coast. The satellite loop showed clouds streaming across most of Oregon in a strong northwesterly flow aloft. Doppler radar indicated that most of the precipitation was north of Oregon, but some light rain and snow was making into mainly the northern half of the state. Surface reports confirmed some light valley rain and mountain snow spreading into northeast Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed a fairly tight southerly pressure gradient across Washington staring to slide southward into northern Oregon. South-southwesterly winds had already increased across northwestern Oregon and were beginning to pick up across the northeastern portion of the state. S sgtrong northwesterly jet stream will drive a cold front across the region later this morning and this afternoon, with snow levels dropping to around 3000 feet. The main energy from this system will be focused over the Cascades and mountains of northeastern Oregon. A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect for the Cascades, until 9pm, for 5-10 inches of new snow. The Willamette Valley will see cloudy skies with occasional rain showers. Cooling aloft and little to no sunshine will keep temperatures from climbing much above 50 degrees this afternoon. Blustery winds will turn more westerly during the afternoon. Surface Winds: SSW 10-20 this morning, W 10-20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 20 this morning, W 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 74. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:52am. Extended Outlook: Another warm front will keep skies cloudy overnight with some light rain likely spreading back across western Oregon by Wednesday morning. A cold front will increase the rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday with more significant snow expected in the Cascades. A cool upper-level trough will bring showers Friday with low snow levels. The trough will push east of the region late Friday with a ridge building into the coast Saturday. Saturday appears as if it will be dry and warmer...perhaps a taste of spring. The next weather system may split, as it approaches the coastline Sunday, so the forecast confidence drops rapidly after Saturday. My forecast is bias towards a colder and wetter scenario, since that is the dominant weather pattern so far this early spring. Tomorrow (01 Apr): Cloudy. Light Rain at Times. Sow Level Rising to 5000 Feet. 38/50 Thu (02 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/52 Fri (03 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 feet. 37/53 Sat (04 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 34/62 Sun (05 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain by Afternoon. 37/59 Mon (06 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/54 Tue (07 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 feet. 38/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue Mar 31 11:59:33 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 31 Mar 2009 13:59:33 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE Issued: Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm. Weather Discussion: In the wake of the warm front that brought very light precipitation to northern Oregon overnight, a cold front was moving across northern Washington late this morning. Dopler radar and surface reports showed areas of light rain and mountain snow across much of Washington and, to a lessor extent, the northern half of Oregon. The strong northesterly jet stream associated with this system does not have much of an over-water trajectory, so moisture has been limited west of the Cascades. However, strong south-southwesterly winds, ahead of the cold front, will turn more westerly this afternoon. That will increase the upslope flow into the northern Oregon and Washington Cascades, with significant snow accumulations likely above 3000 feet this afternoon and evening. Some light snow fell over the northern Cascades this morning, with the snow level lifting from arond 2500 feet Monday afternoon to around 4000 feet early this morning. Government Camp and Santiam Pass both picked up about 1 inch of snow this morning. A late-morning check of ODOT road cameras showed only flurries over the passes with pass temperatures near 30 degrees. With increasing snow expected this afternoon, the National Weather Service has issued a Winter Weather Advisory for the Oregon Cascades, from Santiam Pass northward, through 9pm, for 5-10 inches of new snow. About 3-7 inches of new snow are likely over Willamette Pass. Astoria picked up another tenth of an inch of rain in the 6 hours ending at 11am, while most of the Willamette Valley saw only some sprinkles. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed tightenting pressure gradients across southern Washgton and northern Oregon, in response to the cold front. Just ahead of the cold front, southwesterly winds were gusting over 30 mph across most of central and eastern Washington and northeastern Oregon. In the wake of the front, winds had turned westerly, and were gusting to about 30 mph, across western Washington and along the the northern Oregon coast. Winds in the Willamette Valley were still southwesterly and gusting to about 25 mph. Midday satellite imagery showed a broad band of clouds extending, from northwest to southeast, across most of Washington and virtually all of Oregon. Temperatures ranged from the mid 40s to the low 50s across western Oregon. Colder air moving over the region, in the wake of the fairly dry cold front, will keep temperatures from climbing out of the low 50s this afternoon. Skies should remain mostly cloudy, but a peek at the sun is possible. Winds will continue to be blustery and turn more westerly across the Willamette Valley. The chance of showers will decrease later this afternoon, as evening cooling stabilizes the air mass. Surface Winds: Becoming W 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 74. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:52am. Extended Outlook: Another warm front will keep skies cloudy overnight with some light rain likely spreading back across western Oregon by Wednesday morning. A cold front will increase the rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday with more significant snow expected in the Cascades. A cool upper-level trough will bring showers Friday with low snow levels. The trough will push east of the region, with showers decreasing Friday evening. Saturday appears as if it will be dry and warmer, more spring-like, as a ridge of high pressure builds into the coast. There is still disagreement in the computer model forecasts beyond Saturday, mainly on the timing of the next weather system. The latest computer guidance is forecasting the next weather system to bring more rain onshore starting between midday Sunday and very early Monday. This system also apprears cold enough to be a snow-maker for the Cascades Sunday night and Monday. Showers are forecast to linger into Tuesday with continued low snow levels. Tomorrow (01 Apr): Cloudy. Light Rain at Times. Sow Level Rising to 5000 Feet. 38/50 Thu (02 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/52 Fri (03 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 feet. 37/53 Sat (04 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 34/62 Sun (05 Apr): Chance of Rain by Afternoon. Snow Level near 4000 Feet. 37/59 Mon (06 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/54 Tue (07 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 feet. 38/57 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us