[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, March 12th, 2009

Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Thu Mar 12 12:06:31 PDT 2009




Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

...Next Update scheduled for Monday, March 16th, 2009 at 9:00am...

NOON UPDATE

Issued: 
     Thursday, March 12th, 2009 at 12:00pm.

Burn Advisory:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 4:00pm.
     Stack burning is not allowed.

Weather Discussion:
     Clear skies and a dry air mass allowed for rapid cooling of
     the low-level air mass overnight across the entire state. 
     Willamette Valley minimums dipped as low as the mid 20s this
     morning, with windy areas staying near freezing. It was
     quite cold, again, east of the Cascades this morning, with
     many locations setting daily low-temperature records. 
     Meacham, in the blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon,
     dropped to 12 degrees below zero this morning, breaking the
     old daily record by 16 degrees.  New daily record minimums
     were also set at Pendleton (19 degrees), John day (12
     degrees), Redmond (9 degrees), The dalles (20 degrees), and
     Rome (12 degrees).  Many of the old records that were broken
     today were established in the 1950s and 1960s.  Many record
     minimums were also set in central and eastern Washington,
     including Spokane with a low of just 8 degrees.  That broke
     the old record low of 9 degrees set way back in 1906.  The
     unseasonalby cold Arctic air mass stretched eastward across
     much of the country this morning.  Below zero temperatures
     extended eastward to Minnesota this morning.

     Satellite imagery showed clear skies over Oregon this
     morning, with the exception of some low clouds in the Rogue
     River Basin of southwestern Oregon.  Strong offshore flow
     was keeing dry air over the region, along with blustery
     north-northeasterly winds.  Late-morning temperatures ranged
     from the upper 30s to the mid 40s across western Oregon with
     many areas east of the Cascades still below freezing.  The
     air aloft is warmer this morning, with the freezing level
     over Salem measured at 7600 feet.  That will help high
     temperatures climb into the low 50s across the Willamette
     Valley this afternoon under sunny skies.

Surface Winds:
     NNE 7-17 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     NE 17 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet.  Ventilation index 51.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 35%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 7:15pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:28am.

Extended Outlook:
     An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Friday
     for another sunny day.  After a frosty morning, high
     temperatures should climb to near normal (mid 50s).  Clouds
     will increase Friday evening, ahead of what appears will be
     a very damp weekend.  A couple of weather systems, dropping
     into the region from the Gulf of Alaska, will bring
     substantial rain and mountain snow to Oregon Saturday and
     Saturday night.  A warm front will continue the rain and
     snow Sunday, with snow levels lifting above the Cascade
     passes by the afternoon.  Southerly winds may become
     blustery Sunday afternoon and evening, especially along the
     coast, with mild temperatures.

     The long-range computer model forecasts are still not
     consistent on their forecast storm track position for early
     next week, but the trend is for a strong west-southwesterly
     jet stream to take aim at Washington and northwest Oregon. 
     That has the potential to bring significant precipitation to
     the region throug Monday...especially across western
     Washington.  Southerly surface winds should keep
     temperatures mild, mainly in the overnight periods. The
     storm track is forecast to weaken and shift slightly north
     late Tuesday and Wednesday.  A weaker system is forecast to
     move onshore Thursday night and Friday.

Tomorrow (13 Mar):  Frosty Morning.  Sunny and Warmer in the Afternoon. Clouds Late.  28/57

Sat (14 Mar):  Rain...Possibly Heavy at Times. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet.  37/49

Sun (15 Mar):  Rain. Increasing Southerly Winds. Snow Level Lifting to 5000 Feet Late. 42/53

Mon (16 Mar):  Rain Likely...Mainly North.  Snow Level 4000 Feet.  43/57

Tue (17 Mar):  Mostly Cloudy.  Chance of Rain...Mainly North.  42/55

Wed (18 Mar):  Mostly Cloudy.  Slight Chance of Rain.  Snow Level 6000 Feet.  39/55

Thu (19 Mar):  Increasing Chance of Rain Late.  Snow Level 5000 Feet.  40/54

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us



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