[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 31st, 2009

Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Tue Mar 31 09:13:55 PDT 2009




Daily Smoke Management Forecast




Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.

Issued: 
     Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 9:00am.

Burn Advisory:
     Agricultural burning is allowed.  Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm.
     Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm.

Weather Discussion:
     A warm front spread clouds across much of Washington and
     Oregon overnight.  Some light rain and snow fell across
     northwestern Oregon, with the snow level over the northern
     Cascades lifting from arond 2500 feet Monday afternoon to
     around 4000 feet early this morning.  Government Camp, on
     Mt. Hood, and Santiam Pass both picked up some light snow
     overnight, but amounts were generally around an inch or
     less.  Mid morning pass temperatures were near 30 degrees.

     The greatest rainfall in the past 24 hours was along the the
     north coast.  Astoria recieved just over one-tenth of an
     inch.  The northern Willamette Valley only picked up a few
     hundredths of an inch, and the south valley got little to no
     rain.  CLoudy skies and increasing southerly winds held
     temperatures mostly in the low lows overnight.  Mid-morning
     readings were in the low to mid 40s across western Oregon. 
     South-southwesterly winds had increased to around 10-20 mph
     in the Willamette Valley and southwesterly winds were
     gusting over 20 mph along the coast.

     The satellite loop showed clouds streaming across most of
     Oregon in a strong northwesterly flow aloft.  Doppler radar
     indicated that most of the precipitation was north of
     Oregon, but some light rain and snow was making into mainly
     the northern half of the state.  Surface reports confirmed
     some light valley rain and mountain snow spreading into
     northeast Oregon.  The ODA surface analysis showed a fairly
     tight southerly pressure gradient across Washington staring
     to slide southward into northern Oregon. 
     South-southwesterly winds had already increased across
     northwestern Oregon and were beginning to pick up across the
     northeastern portion of the state.

     S sgtrong northwesterly jet stream will drive a cold front
     across the region later this morning and this afternoon,
     with snow levels dropping to around 3000 feet.  The main
     energy from this system will be focused over the Cascades
     and mountains of northeastern Oregon.  A Winter Weather
     Advisory is in effect for the Cascades, until 9pm, for 5-10
     inches of new snow.  The Willamette Valley will see cloudy
     skies with occasional rain showers.  Cooling aloft and
     little to no sunshine will keep temperatures from climbing
     much above 50 degrees this afternoon.  Blustery winds will
     turn more westerly during the afternoon.

Surface Winds:
     SSW 10-20 this morning, W 10-20 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
     SSW 20 this morning, W 20 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
     Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet.  Ventilation index 74.
High Temperature:
     Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52.
Humidities:
     Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
     Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:52am.

Extended Outlook:
     Another warm front will keep skies cloudy overnight with
     some light rain likely spreading back across western Oregon
     by Wednesday morning.  A cold front will increase the
     rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday with more significant
     snow expected in the Cascades.  A cool upper-level trough
     will bring showers Friday with low snow levels.  The trough
     will push east of the region late Friday with a ridge
     building into the coast Saturday.

     Saturday appears as if it will be dry and warmer...perhaps a
     taste of spring.  The next weather system may split, as it
     approaches the coastline Sunday, so the forecast confidence
     drops rapidly after Saturday.  My forecast is bias towards a
     colder and wetter scenario, since that is the dominant
     weather pattern so far this early spring.

Tomorrow (01 Apr):  Cloudy.  Light Rain at Times.  Sow Level Rising to 5000 Feet.  38/50

Thu (02 Apr):  Rain Turning to Showers.  Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet.  42/52

Fri (03 Apr):  Decreasing Showers.  Snow Level 2-3000 feet.  37/53

Sat (04 Apr):  Partly Cloudy and Warmer.  34/62

Sun (05 Apr):  Increasing Clouds.  Chance of Rain by Afternoon.  37/59

Mon (06 Apr):  Rain Turning to Showers.  Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet.  40/54

Tue (07 Apr):  Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 feet.  38/57

ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us



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