[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, March 31st, 2009
Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast
willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Tue Mar 31 09:13:55 PDT 2009
Daily Smoke Management Forecast
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.
Issued:
Tuesday, March 31st, 2009 at 9:00am.
Burn Advisory:
Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 5:30pm.
Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 5:30pm.
Weather Discussion:
A warm front spread clouds across much of Washington and
Oregon overnight. Some light rain and snow fell across
northwestern Oregon, with the snow level over the northern
Cascades lifting from arond 2500 feet Monday afternoon to
around 4000 feet early this morning. Government Camp, on
Mt. Hood, and Santiam Pass both picked up some light snow
overnight, but amounts were generally around an inch or
less. Mid morning pass temperatures were near 30 degrees.
The greatest rainfall in the past 24 hours was along the the
north coast. Astoria recieved just over one-tenth of an
inch. The northern Willamette Valley only picked up a few
hundredths of an inch, and the south valley got little to no
rain. CLoudy skies and increasing southerly winds held
temperatures mostly in the low lows overnight. Mid-morning
readings were in the low to mid 40s across western Oregon.
South-southwesterly winds had increased to around 10-20 mph
in the Willamette Valley and southwesterly winds were
gusting over 20 mph along the coast.
The satellite loop showed clouds streaming across most of
Oregon in a strong northwesterly flow aloft. Doppler radar
indicated that most of the precipitation was north of
Oregon, but some light rain and snow was making into mainly
the northern half of the state. Surface reports confirmed
some light valley rain and mountain snow spreading into
northeast Oregon. The ODA surface analysis showed a fairly
tight southerly pressure gradient across Washington staring
to slide southward into northern Oregon.
South-southwesterly winds had already increased across
northwestern Oregon and were beginning to pick up across the
northeastern portion of the state.
S sgtrong northwesterly jet stream will drive a cold front
across the region later this morning and this afternoon,
with snow levels dropping to around 3000 feet. The main
energy from this system will be focused over the Cascades
and mountains of northeastern Oregon. A Winter Weather
Advisory is in effect for the Cascades, until 9pm, for 5-10
inches of new snow. The Willamette Valley will see cloudy
skies with occasional rain showers. Cooling aloft and
little to no sunshine will keep temperatures from climbing
much above 50 degrees this afternoon. Blustery winds will
turn more westerly during the afternoon.
Surface Winds:
SSW 10-20 this morning, W 10-20 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
SSW 20 this morning, W 20 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
Maximum mixing height today will be near 3700 feet. Ventilation index 74.
High Temperature:
Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 52.
Humidities:
Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
Salem sunset tonight: 7:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 6:52am.
Extended Outlook:
Another warm front will keep skies cloudy overnight with
some light rain likely spreading back across western Oregon
by Wednesday morning. A cold front will increase the
rainfall Wednesday night and Thursday with more significant
snow expected in the Cascades. A cool upper-level trough
will bring showers Friday with low snow levels. The trough
will push east of the region late Friday with a ridge
building into the coast Saturday.
Saturday appears as if it will be dry and warmer...perhaps a
taste of spring. The next weather system may split, as it
approaches the coastline Sunday, so the forecast confidence
drops rapidly after Saturday. My forecast is bias towards a
colder and wetter scenario, since that is the dominant
weather pattern so far this early spring.
Tomorrow (01 Apr): Cloudy. Light Rain at Times. Sow Level Rising to 5000 Feet. 38/50
Thu (02 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 42/52
Fri (03 Apr): Decreasing Showers. Snow Level 2-3000 feet. 37/53
Sat (04 Apr): Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 34/62
Sun (05 Apr): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain by Afternoon. 37/59
Mon (06 Apr): Rain Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 3000 Feet. 40/54
Tue (07 Apr): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 3000 feet. 38/57
ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us
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