From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue May 5 09:02:53 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 05 May 2009 11:02:53 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, May 5th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, May 5th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A strong cold front moved onshore Monday night, bringing locally heavy rain to western Oregon and unseasonaby strong winds to the Oregon Coast. Southelry winds gusted to 77 mph at Cape Foulweather (north of Newport), 72 mph at Waldport and the Sea Lion Caves, 63 mph at Florence, 53 mph at Garibaldi, and 50 mph at the Astoria Aorport. In the wake of locally heavy rain, associated with the cold front, southerly winds of 25-35 mph swept across the Willamette Valley overnight. Rainfall amounts in the past 24 hours were fairly impressive, for early May, with about an inch falling along the coastline and three-quarters to one inch of rain in the Willamette Valley. The southwestern valleys also picked up from one-half to one inch of rain. Snow levels were near 7000 feet ahead of the cold front, so much of the precipitation from this storm fell as rain in the Cascades. Rain turned to snow, above about 5000 feet, in the wake of the cold front overnight. Timberline Lodge has received over 1.6 inches of water-equivalent precipitation in the past 24 hours, with over 1.1 inches at Mt Hood Meadows. Much of that fell as rain, with ony 2 inches of new snow at Timberline overnight and 1 inch of new snow at Mt. Hood Meadows. The ODA surface analysis showed the cold front moving into eastern Oregon at mid-morning. The front had lost a lot of moisture crossing the Cascades, with only partly cloudy skies covering much of central and eastern Oregon. The exception was northeastern Oregon, where the frotn still had enough moisture to keep skies generally cloudy with areas of light rain. The intense surface low-pressure area had weakened and tracked northward to the northern tip of Vancouver Island, British Columbia. Tight southerly pressure gradients were relaxing across western Washington and western Oregon, but winds were still gusting to about 30 mph along the northern Oregon Coast and to about 25 mph in the Willamette Valley. Strong onshore flow, in the wake of the cold front, was keeping skies mostly cloudy across western Oregon with Doppler radar showing bands of showers rotating onshore in a strong southwesterly flow aloft. The Salem sounding from 5am showed 50 mph southwesterly winds at just 5000 feet with 30 mph winds extending down to about 2500 feet. The freezing level had dropped to 5400 feet, from 8100 feet Monday afternoon. Midday temperatures were generally in the low to mid 50s across westner Oregon. Cold air aloft, moist onshore flow, and a strong westerly jet stream will maintain mostly cloudy skies and scattered showers across western Oregon today. Southwesterly winds will decrease today but continue to be blustery...especially near showers. High temperatures will only climb into the upper 50s, more than 5 degrees below normal for early May. The snow level in the Cascades will hold near 4-5000 feet, with rain possibly turning to wet snow over the passes. Surface Winds: SW 10-20 G25 this morning, SW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 35 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 175. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 67%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:23pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:54am. Extended Outlook: A fast-moving westerly flow aloft will drive the next weather system onshore Wednesday with rain and wind increasing again across western Oregon. Winds will not be as strong with this system, but it will bring blustery and wet weather back to the region. South wind-gusts of 30-40 mph are possible along the coastal strip Wednesday with gusts to about 25 mph in the Willamette Valley. The snow level should lift above the Cascade passes Wednesday, to around 5500 feet, but the ski areas will get some more snow. Showers will continue through Thursday, as an upper-level trough moves over the region. A drier northwesterly flow aloft will take over Friday and Saturday. A weak weather system may bring back some showers as early as Sunday. Tomorrow (06 May): Rain and Blustery. Snow Level 5500 feet. 48/59 Thu (07 May): Scattered Showers. 45/60 Fri (08 May): Partly Cloudy. 39/65 Sat (09 May): Partly Cloudy. 40/68 Sun (10 May): Chance of Showers. 42/67 Mon (11 May): Chance of Showers. 42/66 Tue (12 May): Chance of Showers. 43/62 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed May 6 09:00:06 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 06 May 2009 11:00:06 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: The Pacific Northwest remains under the influence of a strong and moist westerly flow aloft. Showers briefly decreased Tuesday afternoon across western Oregon, but clouds increased again Tuesday night with rain spreading inland overnight. Steady light to moderate rain was falling along the coast and across the Willamette Valley at mid-morning, ahead of a cold front, about 150 miles offshore. Southerly winds were gusting to about 30 mph from Astoria to Newport. South-southeasterly winds had increased in the Willamette Valley to between 10 and 15 mph. Clouds, rain, and wind made for mild overnight temperatures across western Oregon. Minimums were near 50 degrees with mid-morning temperatures in the low 50s. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed a similar temperature profile to Tuesday morning with the freezing level at 5600 feet. South-southwesterly winds, grater than 30 mph, extended down to about 2000 feet. Relative high mixing heights and brisk transport winds will make for good ventilation condtions today. However, conditions may be too damp for stack burning. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed south-southeasterly gradients increasing across the Willamette Valley, in response to the approaching cold front. Light southerly gradients east of the Cascades were also beginning to increase. Satellite imagery showed clouds covering virtually all of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Doppler radar showed areas of rain across all of Oregon with a zone of moderate rain extending from the northern and central coast range into the central and southern Willamette Valley. Surface reports indicated occasional moderate to heavy rain along the coast with light to moderate rain in the Willamette Valley. More than one-half inch of rain has fallen from Astoria to Newport since late last night. Only a few hundredths of an inch have fallen along the south coast and across southwestern Oregon. In the Willamette Valley, the Portland and Salem airports have received about one-quarter of an inch of rainfall in the past 6 hours, with .15 inches falling in Eugene. Rain was also falling over the Cascade passes at mid-morning, where temperatures were holding in the mid to upper 30s. Areas of light rain extended east of the Cascades into Idaho. Steady rain should turn more showery across western Oregon this afternoon, as the cold front comes onshore and eventually pushes east of the Cascades. Surface winds will veer to south-southwesterly, and may become a bit blustery, in the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Cloudy skies and occasional showers will hold high temperatures in the upper 50s again today. Surface Winds: SSE 10-15 G20 this morning, SSW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 30 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 99. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 72%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:24pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:53am. Extended Outlook: A continued strong onshore flow and a cool upper-level trough will maintain shower activity over western Oregon through Thursday morning, with some showers possibly lingering into Thursday afternoon, especially over the northern Cascades. The snow level will drop to about 4000 feet Thursday with some wet snow possible over the Cascade passes. A drier northwesterly flow aloft will take over Friday and Saturday with temperatures warming to slightly above average by Saturday. The ridge is forecast to push east of the region Sunday with the flow aloft turning westerly again. A weak weather system may bring back some showers by Sunday evening. A developing upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region during the first half of next week, bringing a return of cool and damp weather. Thu (07 May): Scattered Showers, Decreasing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 46/58 Fri (08 May): Mostly Cloudy AM. Partly Cloudy PM. 39/64 Sat (09 May): Partly Cloudy. 40/68 Sun (10 May): Increasing Cloudy. Chance of Showers Late. 42/67 Mon (11 May): Increasing Chance of Showers and Cooler. 45/60 Tue (12 May): Showers Likely. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 44/59 Wed (13 May): Showers Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 43/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed May 6 09:09:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 06 May 2009 11:09:10 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Corrected Extended Forecast for Sunday, May 10th... Issued: Wednesday, May 6th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: The Pacific Northwest remains under the influence of a strong and moist westerly flow aloft. Showers briefly decreased Tuesday afternoon across western Oregon, but clouds increased again Tuesday night with rain spreading inland overnight. Steady light to moderate rain was falling along the coast and across the Willamette Valley at mid-morning, ahead of a cold front, about 150 miles offshore. Southerly winds were gusting to about 30 mph from Astoria to Newport. South-southeasterly winds had increased in the Willamette Valley to between 10 and 15 mph. Clouds, rain, and wind made for mild overnight temperatures across western Oregon. Minimums were near 50 degrees with mid-morning temperatures in the low 50s. The Salem sounding from early this morning showed a similar temperature profile to Tuesday morning with the freezing level at 5600 feet. South-southwesterly winds, grater than 30 mph, extended down to about 2000 feet. Relative high mixing heights and brisk transport winds will make for good ventilation condtions today. However, conditions may be too damp for stack burning. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed south-southeasterly gradients increasing across the Willamette Valley, in response to the approaching cold front. Light southerly gradients east of the Cascades were also beginning to increase. Satellite imagery showed clouds covering virtually all of Washington, Oregon, and Idaho. Doppler radar showed areas of rain across all of Oregon with a zone of moderate rain extending from the northern and central coast range into the central and southern Willamette Valley. Surface reports indicated occasional moderate to heavy rain along the coast with light to moderate rain in the Willamette Valley. More than one-half inch of rain has fallen from Astoria to Newport since late last night. Only a few hundredths of an inch have fallen along the south coast and across southwestern Oregon. In the Willamette Valley, the Portland and Salem airports have received about one-quarter of an inch of rainfall in the past 6 hours, with .15 inches falling in Eugene. Rain was also falling over the Cascade passes at mid-morning, where temperatures were holding in the mid to upper 30s. Areas of light rain extended east of the Cascades into Idaho. Steady rain should turn more showery across western Oregon this afternoon, as the cold front comes onshore and eventually pushes east of the Cascades. Surface winds will veer to south-southwesterly, and may become a bit blustery, in the Willamette Valley this afternoon. Cloudy skies and occasional showers will hold high temperatures in the upper 50s again today. Surface Winds: SSE 10-15 G20 this morning, SSW 10-20 G25 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SSW 30 this morning, SW 30 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 99. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 72%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:24pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:53am. Extended Outlook: A continued strong onshore flow and a cool upper-level trough will maintain shower activity over western Oregon through Thursday morning, with some showers possibly lingering into Thursday afternoon, especially over the northern Cascades. The snow level will drop to about 4000 feet Thursday with some wet snow possible over the Cascade passes. A drier northwesterly flow aloft will take over Friday and Saturday with temperatures warming to slightly above average by Saturday. The ridge is forecast to push east of the region Sunday with the flow aloft turning westerly again. A weak weather system may bring back some showers by Sunday evening. A developing upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region during the first half of next week, bringing a return of cool and damp weather. Thu (07 May): Scattered Showers, Decreasing in the Afternoon. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 46/58 Fri (08 May): Mostly Cloudy AM. Partly Cloudy PM. 39/64 Sat (09 May): Partly Cloudy. 40/68 Sun (10 May): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Showers Late. 42/69 Mon (11 May): Increasing Chance of Showers and Cooler. 45/60 Tue (12 May): Showers Likely. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 44/59 Wed (13 May): Showers Likely. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 43/58 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu May 7 08:53:58 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 07 May 2009 10:53:58 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, May 7th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, May 7th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A continued strong onshore flow and a cool upper-level trough, cutting across Washington and northern Oregon, maintained shower activity overnight across western Washington and the northern two-thirds of western Oregon. Some of the showers produced brief bursts of moderate to heavy rain, especially north of about Salem. Aurora picked up more than a half-inch of rain overnight. Further south, Eugene and Roseburg only received a few hundredths of an inch. Medford stayed south of the shower activity. Snow levels dropped to around 3500 feet overnight north and down to 4500 feet south, across western Oregon, with rain changing to wet snow showers over the Cascade passes. Timberline Lodge reported 5 inches of new snow and Mt. Bachelor got 2 inches. Snow levels will only rise 500-1000 feet today, with showers continuing today in the Cascades, especially in the Mt. Hood area. The northern passes could pick up another 1-3 inches of wet snow, with higher amounts in the ski areas. The Salem sounding this morning showed several degrees of cooling aloft compared with Wednesday afternoon, which has made the air mass more unstable. Daytime heating will combine with strong onshore flow and cold air aloft to produce scattered showers through this afternoon. Westerly flow aloft will tend to focus the showers over the western slopes of the coast range and the Cascades, with a rain-shadow effect producing sunbreaks at times over the western valleys. The flow aloft will turn more northwesterly by late this afternoon, with slow warming aloft beginning to stabilize the atmosphere, from south to north across the state. Some showers could linger into Friday morning over the northern Cascades, but the western valleys should dry out overnight. Partial clearing and decreasing winds will allow valley temperatures to drop into the mid to upper 30s overnight. There is considerable ground moisture, due to recent rains, so patchy fog may form across the western valleys by Friday morning. The higher May sun angle should help to clear fog from most areas by about 8am Friday, with increasing amounts of sunshine, and warmer temperatures, Friday afternoon. Surface Winds: SSW 5-15 this morning, WSW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this morning, W 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 100. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 53%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:25pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:51am. Extended Outlook: A drier northwesterly flow aloft will take over Friday and Saturday with temperatures warming to slightly above average by Saturday. The ridge is forecast to push east of the region Sunday with the flow aloft turning westerly again. That will keep temperatures mild Sunday, but clouds will be on the increase. Light rain may return as early as Sunday evening. A developing upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region during the first half of next week, bringing a return of cool and damp weather. Snow levels will drop to near or below the Cascade passes. There is some disagreement in the long-range computer models for the second half of next week, but it appears that another cool upper-level trough may drop into the region next Thursday. Tomorrow (08 May): Mostly Cloudy AM with Patchy Fog. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 36/64 Sat (09 May): Mostly Sunny with Seasonal Temperatures. 38/68 Sun (10 May): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Showers Late. 41/69 Mon (11 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet. 46/60 Tue (12 May): Cloudy. Showers Likely. Snow Level 3500-4000 Feet. 43/59 Wed (13 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Showers. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 42/60 Thu (14 May): Good Chance that Showers will Return. Snow Level 4-5000 Feet. 44/60 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri May 8 09:03:51 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 08 May 2009 11:03:51 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, May 8th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, May 8th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A continued strong onshore flow and a cool upper-level trough, cutting across Washington and northern Oregon, maintained shower activity across western Washington and the northern half or Oregon through much of Thursday. Some of the showers produced brief bursts of moderate to heavy rain and small hail, especially from about Salem northward. Most of the Willamette valley received less than one-tenth of an inch of rain, due to the rain-shadow effect from westerly flow aloft downsloping off the coast range. Measurable rain extended as far south as Sexton Summit, between Roseburg and Medford. Snow levels stayed near 3500 feet over the northern Cascades Thursday, as upsloping westerly flow aloft produced frequent, and at times quite potent, showers. Timberline Lodge received 8 inches of new snow in the past 24 hours and 20 inches in the past 72 hours. They still had a base snow total of 201 inches this morning! Showers had finally ended, with clearing skies, over the Cascades this morning. Warmer air aloft was making it northward across Oregon this morning. The freezing level over Salem was measured at just 3900 feet early this morning, but the freezing level over Medford had jumped to 7900 feet. The freezing level over northern Oregon should rise to around 7000 feet by late this afternoon. Clearing skies and decreasing winds allowed western Oregon temperatures to locally drop into the mid 30s overnight. Hillsboro dipped to 34 degrees and Eugene fell to 35. McMinnville and Salem both dropped to 37 degrees. On the coast, Newport also fell to 37 degrees, before fog formed and stabilized the temperature. There was enough ground moisture available for patchy fog to develop both on the coast and in the Willamette Valley early this morning. There were also pockets of marine low clouds. Clearing skies helped temperatures locally drop as low as the mid 20s across eastern Oregon. Baker City was the cold spot in the state this morning with a minumum of 25 degrees. A drier northwesterly flow aloft covers the region this morning. Visible satellite imagery showed mostly cloudy skies across western Washinton with areas of low clouds extending southward across the northern Oregon Coast. Areas of low clouds also covered pockets in the western valleys of Oregon. Skies were mostly sunny across the remainder of Oregon and over central and eastern Washington. Mid-morning temperatures has already warmed well into the 40s across all of western Oregon with readings in the upper 30s and 40s east of the Cascades. The ODA surface analysis showed a thermal trough over northern California beginning to build northward into southwestern Oregon. Weak northerly gradients will increase across western Oregon later today with north winds becoming brisk along the coast. Northerly winds will also increase in the Willamette Valley, especially in the south valley near Eugene. Warming aloft and mostly sunny skies will help temperatures recover to near normal this afternoon. Mostly clear skies tonight will allow temperatures to locally drop into the mid to upper 30s across western Oregon again tonight. Patchy fog may form early Saturday morning. Surface Winds: N 5-10 this morning, N 5-15 G20 South this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 15 this morning, N 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4600 feet. Ventilation index 69. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 64. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 40%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:26pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:50am. Extended Outlook: A dry northwesterly flow aloft will continue Saturday with mostly sunny skies warming temperatures slightly above average. The upper-level ridge is forecast to push east of the region Sunday with the flow aloft turning westerly again. Temperatures will stay above average Sunday, but clouds will be on the increase. Light rain may return as early as Sunday evening. A strengthening upper-level trough is forecast to drop over the region during the first half of next week, bringing a return of cool and damp weather. Snow levels will drop to near or below the Cascade passes. There is considerable disagreement in the long-range computer models for the second half of next week. It appears that another weather system may move onshore Wednesday and Thursday. Tomorrow (09 May): Mostly Sunny with Seasonal Temperatures. 38/68 Sun (10 May): Increasing Clouds. Chance of Rain Late. 41/70 Mon (11 May): Rain Likely and Cooler. Snow Level Dropping to 4000 Feet Late. 46/59 Tue (12 May): Showers Likely...Mainly North. Snow Level 4000 Feet. 43/59 Wed (13 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain... Mainly North. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 43/62 Thu (14 May): Mostly Cloudy. Chance of Rain. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 46/65 Fri (15 May): Chance of Showers. Snow Level 6-7000 Feet. 47/67 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon May 11 09:08:36 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 11 May 2009 11:08:36 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, May 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...The Next Scheduled Forecast Update is not until Thursday, May 14th, at 9am... Issued: Monday, May 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A weak upper-level ridge of high pressure brought dry weather with seasonal temperatures over the weekend. Willamette Valley highs ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s both Saturday and Sunday. The ridge shifted east, to over Idaho, on Sunday with increasing westerly flow aloft spreading clouds back across western Oregon during the day. A few light showers made their way onto the coast and across the northwest interior late Sunday through this morning. Only a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain fell on the coast and as far south as about Salem in the Willamette Valley. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure nosing into the central and southern Oregon Coast, with onshore flow across western Oregon. A weak offshore trough was acting to turn gradients southerly across the Willamette Valley. Southerly winds had increased to between 5 and 15 mph in the Willamette Valley with gusts to near 25 mph along the north coast. Winds were generally 10 mph or lower east of the Cascades. Visible satellite imagery showed considerable marine low cloudiness covering all of western Washington and all but the extreme southwest interior of western Oregon. A weak upper-level trough was also producing mostly skies across the eastern third of Washington and extreme northeastern Oregon. Downsloping westery flow off the Cascades was bringing mostly sunny skies to the central sections Washington and Oregon. Skies were also mostly clear from the southwestern interior of Oregon eastward across soth-central and southeastern Oregon. Doppler radar showed only very light shower activity over the Washington and northern Oregon Cascades with more vigorous showers over northeastern Washington, extending south into the mountains of northeastern Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the low to mid 50s across western Oregon. East of the Cascades, readings ranged from the mid 40s, with rain showers, in Meacham, to near 60, under sunny skies, in Rome. A vigorous upper-level trough, dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska, will continue to increase the westerly flow aloft over Oregon today. The air aloft will continue to cool and become increasingly unstable. The freezing level was measured over Salem at 5900 feet early this morning and should hold steady or fall another 500-1000 feet by this evening. Cooling aloft and daytime heating should trigger at least widely scattered showers today across much of western Oregon. Westerly flow aloft will act to focus the shower activity over the western slopes of the coast range and the Cascades, but a few showers are possible across the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will struggle into the upper 50s this afternoon with a few valley locations possibly hitting 60. Southerly winds will turn more southwesterly and increase this afternoon, resulting in good ventilation conditions. As the strong upper-level trough appraoches the Washington and northern Oregon coastline tonight, shower activity should increase across western Washington and northwestern Oregon. The snow level will likely drop below the passes in the northern Cascades, where a few inches of snow are possible overnight. Cloudy skies and increasing showers will hold overngiht valley temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, SW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this morning, WSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 66. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:46am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level trough is forecast swing inland across Washington and northern Oregon Tuesday with scatter showers developing from northwestern Oregon across the Cascades into northeastern Oregon. There is even a slight chance of a valley thunderstorm. Snow levels in the northern mountains will drop to about 3500 feet with strong onshore flow continuing to bring breezy conditions to much of central and eastern Oregon. A transitory ridge will briefly decrease the shower activity Tuesday night. Another cool upper-level trough is forecast drop into the region late Wednesday. It will have a better moisture tap than the system on Tuesday, so more significant rain is expected across western Oregon. Snow levels will likely rise to around 6000 feet by Wednesday evening. The upper-level trough will move over Oregon Thursday with showers and snow levels dropping to about 5000 feet. The long-range computer models are all indicating that a strong ridge of high pressure will bring much warmer and dry weather to the Pacific Northwest by this weekend and early next week. Tue (12 May): Showers...Mainly North. Slight Chance T-Storm. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 43/56 Wed (13 May): A break early. Rain increasing Late. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 43/61 Thu (14 May): Showers. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 46/61 Fri (15 May): Showers Ending. Becoming Partly Cloudy. 44/66 Sat (16 May): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 44/72 Sun (17 May): Sunny and Warm. 45/78 Mon (18 May): Sunny and Warm. 47/80 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon May 11 09:20:55 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 11 May 2009 11:20:55 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, May 11th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, May 11th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: ...Corrected Wording to Weather Discussion... ...The Next Scheduled Forecast Update is not until Thursday, May 14th, at 9am... A weak upper-level ridge of high pressure brought dry weather with seasonal temperatures over the weekend. Willamette Valley highs ranged from the mid 60s to the low 70s both Saturday and Sunday. The ridge shifted east, to over Idaho, on Sunday with increasing westerly flow aloft spreading clouds back across western Oregon during the day. A few light showers made their way onto the coast and across the northwest interior late Sunday through this morning. Only a couple of hundredths of an inch of rain fell on the coast and as far south as about Salem in the Willamette Valley. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed high pressure nosing into the central and southern Oregon Coast, with onshore flow across western Oregon. A weak offshore trough was acting to turn gradients southerly across the Willamette Valley. Southerly winds had increased to between 5 and 15 mph in the Willamette Valley with gusts to near 25 mph along the north coast. Winds were generally 10 mph or lower east of the Cascades. Visible satellite imagery showed considerable marine low cloudiness covering all of western Washington and all but the extreme southwest interior of western Oregon. A weak upper-level trough was also producing mostly cloudy skies across the eastern third of Washington and extreme northeastern Oregon. Downsloping westery flow off the Cascades was bringing mostly sunny skies to the central sections Washington and Oregon. Skies were also mostly clear from the southwestern interior of Oregon eastward across south-central and southeastern Oregon. Doppler radar showed only very light shower activity over the Washington and northern Oregon Cascades with more vigorous showers over northeastern Washington, extending south into the mountains of northeastern Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the low to mid 50s across western Oregon. East of the Cascades, readings ranged from the mid 40s, with rain showers, in Meacham, to near 60, under sunny skies, in Rome. A vigorous upper-level trough, dropping south from the Gulf of Alaska, will continue to increase the westerly flow aloft over Oregon today. The air aloft will continue to cool and become increasingly unstable. The freezing level was measured over Salem at 5900 feet early this morning and should hold steady or fall another 500-1000 feet by this evening. Cooling aloft and daytime heating should trigger at least widely scattered showers today across much of western Oregon. Westerly flow aloft will act to focus the shower activity over the western slopes of the coast range and the Cascades, but a few showers are possible across the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will struggle into the upper 50s this afternoon, across western Oregon, with a few valley locations possibly hitting 60. Southerly winds will turn more southwesterly and increase this afternoon, resulting in good ventilation conditions. Increasing onshore flow will bring brisk westerly winds to much of central and eastern Oregon later today and tonight, but showers will be limited to the mountains. As the strong upper-level trough appraoches the Washington and northern Oregon coastline tonight, shower activity should increase across western Washington and northwestern Oregon. The snow level will likely drop below the passes in the northern Cascades, where a few inches of snow are possible overnight. Cloudy skies and increasing showers will hold overngiht valley temperatures in the low to mid 40s. Surface Winds: S 5-15 this morning, SW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this morning, WSW 20 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 3300 feet. Ventilation index 66. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 60%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:30pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:46am. Extended Outlook: The upper-level trough is forecast swing inland across Washington and northern Oregon Tuesday with scatter showers developing from northwestern Oregon across the Cascades into northeastern Oregon. There is even a slight chance of a valley thunderstorm. Snow levels in the northern mountains will drop to about 3500 feet with strong onshore flow continuing to bring breezy conditions to much of central and eastern Oregon. A transitory ridge will briefly decrease the shower activity Tuesday night. Another cool upper-level trough is forecast drop into the region late Wednesday. It will have a better moisture tap than the system on Tuesday, so more significant rain is expected across western Oregon. Snow levels will likely rise to around 6000 feet by Wednesday evening. The upper-level trough will move over Oregon Thursday with showers and snow levels dropping to about 5000 feet. The long-range computer models are all indicating that a strong ridge of high pressure will bring much warmer and dry weather to the Pacific Northwest by this weekend and early next week. Tue (12 May): Showers...Mainly North. Slight Chance T-Storm. Snow Level 3500 Feet. 43/56 Wed (13 May): A break early. Rain increasing Late. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 43/61 Thu (14 May): Showers. Snow Level 5000 Feet. 46/61 Fri (15 May): Showers Ending. Becoming Partly Cloudy. 44/66 Sat (16 May): Becoming Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 44/72 Sun (17 May): Sunny and Warm. 45/78 Mon (18 May): Sunny and Warm. 47/80 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu May 14 10:33:55 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 14 May 2009 12:33:55 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, May 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, May 14th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A strong Pacific frontal system brought a soaking rain to northwestern Oregon Wednesday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts tapered off over southwestern Oregon, but all areas west of the Cascades picked up measurable rainfall. Over an inch of rain fell along the northern Oregon Coast, one-half inch on the central coast, and about one-quarter of an inch on the south coast. Rainfall totals in the Willamette Valley generally ranged from one-third to two-thirds of an inch. The mid-morning ODA surface analysis showed the cold front had weakended and pushed east of the Cascades. It extended from central Washington to south-central Oregon. Areas of light rain were focused along and east of a line from northeastern Oregon to southwest Oregon. In the wake of the cold front, visible satellite imagery showed some clearing across northwestern Oregon and only minimal shower activity west of the Cascades. However, the air aloft is still fairly cool (The freezing level over Salem was measured at 6700 feet this morning), so daytime heating should produce some convective clouds and possibly a few showers across western Oregon today. Surface winds are generally southwesterly in the Willamette Valley this morning and should turn northwesterly this afternoon, as drier air begin filtering into the region. Overnight temperatures were mild with minimums near 50 across western Oregon. Mid-morning readings were in the low to mid 50s. Highs today will only climb into the lower 60s. High mixing heights and onshore flow will make for good ventilation conditions across the Willamette Valley today. Surface Winds: SW 5-15 G20 this morning, NW 5-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: SW 20 this morning, WNW 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 110. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 63. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:43am. Extended Outlook: A drier northwesterly flow aloft will bring clearing skies tonight. That will allow radiational cooling to locally drop valley temperatures into the upper 30s. Residual moisture, from the recent rainfall, may be high enough to promote patchy valley fog formation early Friday. Skies will become mostly sunny Friday, as the upper-level ridge begins building into the coastline. Surface winds will turn northerly across western Oregon. Warming aloft and a full day of sunshine will help valley temperatures climb into the lower 70s. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Saturday with continued warming aloft helping valley high temperatuers climb to near 80 degrees. The jet stream is forecast to migrate northward to over central British Columbia. Some high clouds may extend as far south as northern Oregon. The flat upper-level ridge will shift eastward, to over eastern Oregon and Idaho, on Sunday, with increasing westerly flow aloft over Oregon. That will induce onshore flow into western Oregon by Sunday evening...bringing cooler weather to the coastline and capping high temperatures near 80 degrees across the Willamette Valley. Temperatures will continue to warm Sunday, over central and eastern Oregon, as the surface thermal trough shifts east of the Cascades. A developing southwesterly flow aloft will extend the marine push eastward Monday, with cooler air penetrating to the Idaho border by Monday night. Strong onshore flow will bring marine low clouds and much cooler conditions into western Oregon Monday with an increasing chance of showers. A farily vigorous upper-level trough is now forecast by most of the long-range computer models to bring showers to the region Tuesday and possibly drop snow levels to near 4000 feet in the northern Cascades. A transitory and weak upper-level ridge is forecast to bring some drying and warming Wednesday and Thursday. Another cool weather system is forecast to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska, and possibly into the Pacific Northwest, as we move into Memorial Weekend. However, that is still very much in question. Tomorrow (15 May): Patchy Early Morning Fog. Sunny and Warmer. North Winds. 39/72 Sat (16 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. North Winds. 41/79 Sun (17 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. Increasing Onshore Flow in the Afternoon. 47/79 Mon (18 May): Partly to Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Increasing Chance of Showers. 51/65 Tue (19 May): Showers Likely and Cool. Snow Level Dropping to Near 4000 feet. 46/59 Wed (20 May): Slight Chance of Showers Early. Becoming Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 43/66 Thu (21 May): Partly Cloudy. 45/69 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu May 14 12:24:04 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 14 May 2009 14:24:04 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, May 14th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Monday, May 18th at 9:00am... Issued: Thursday, May 14th, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed, for dry stacks, from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A strong Pacific frontal system brought soaking rains to most of the coast and across the northwestern interior of Oregon Wednesday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts were lighter over southwestern Oregon, but measurable rain fell across all of western Oregon. Rainfall along the coast ranged from over an inch, at Astoria, to less than one-quarter of an inch at North Bend. Rainfall totals in the Willamette Valley were generally from one-third to two-thirds of an inch since midday Wednesday. The main area of rain had shifted into extreme southwestern Oregon by late this morning, where Medford picked up a tenth of an inch in the 6-hour period ending at 11am this morning. Overnight temperatures were mild with minimums near 50 degrees across western Oregon. Late-morning readings had warmed to near 60 degrees. Highs today will only climb into the lower 60s, due to cool air aloft enhancing convective mixing this afternoon. High mixing heights and strong onshore flow will make for good ventilation conditions across the Willamette Valley this afternoon. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed the cold front stretching from northern Idaho, across northestern Oregon, to south-central Oregon. Areas of rain accompanied the frontal zone, with more than one-tenth of an inch of rain falling at Meacham, in the Blue Mountains of NE Oregon, in just the past couple of hours. Burns also picked up .05 inches of rain in the past 6 hours. Brisk southerly winds ahead of the front were rapidly turning westerly in the wake of the front, across eastern Oregon. Areas of light rain were continuing to show up on Doppler radar late this morning across much of eastern Oregon and extending into southwestern Oregon. Visible satellite imagery continued to show some areas of clearing, mainly just east of the coast range and the Cascades, due to downsloping westerly winds. A few showers were forming over northwestern Oregon, with daytime heating acting to destabilize the air mass. The freezing level is only near 6000 feet, over northern Oregon, so convective clouds should increase this afternoon over northwestern Oregon with a few showers likely. Surface winds were southwesterly across the Willamette Valley this morning...gusting as high as 25 mph. Winds were beginning to turn more westerly late this morning, as high pressure continued to build northward along the coast. Winds should become northwesterly later this afternoon, with the air mass rapidly stabilizing around sundown. Surface Winds: W 5-15 G20...becoming NW 5-15 G20 later this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 20...becoming WNW 15 later this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5500 feet. Ventilation index 110. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 63. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 54%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:34pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:43am. Extended Outlook: A drier northwesterly flow aloft will bring clearing skies tonight. Radiational cooling will locally drop valley temperatures into the upper 30s with patchy fog forming Friday morning. Skies will become mostly sunny Friday, as the upper-level ridge begins building into the coastline. Surface winds will turn northerly across western Oregon. Warming aloft will help valley temperatures climb into the lower 70s. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over Oregon Saturday with valleys highs climbing to near 80 degrees. A strong jet stream, moving over central British Columbia, could send high clouds as far south as northern Oregon. The flat upper-level ridge will shift eastward, to over eastern Oregon and Idaho, on Sunday, with increasing westerly flow aloft over Oregon. That will induce onshore flow into western Oregon by Sunday evening...bringing cooler weather to the coastline and capping valley high temperatures near 80 degrees. The surface thermal trough, and warmest weather, will shift east of the Cascades Monday. A developing southwesterly flow aloft will extend the marine push eastward Monday, with cooler air penetrating to the Idaho border by Monday night. A cold front will bring increasing clouds and a good chance of rain to northwestern Oregon by Monday evening with rain likely Monday night. A fairly vigorous upper-level trough is forecast to bring showers to the region Tuesday, with snow levels dropping to near the Cascade passes. A transitory and weak upper-level ridge is forecast to bring some drying and warming Wednesday. Another cool weather system is forecast to drop down from the Gulf of Alaska, with increasing onshore flow again by late Thursday. That system may be bring showers to northwest Oregon by Friday, with a cooler than normal start to the Memorial Day Weekend likely. Tomorrow (15 May): Patchy Early Morning Fog. Sunny and Warmer. North Winds. 39/72 Sat (16 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. North Winds. 41/79 Sun (17 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. Increasing Onshore Flow in the Afternoon. 47/79 Mon (18 May): Becoming Mostly Cloudy and Cooler. Increasing Chance of Rain. 51/65 Tue (19 May): Showers Likely and Cool. Snow Level Dropping to Near 4000 feet. 46/59 Wed (20 May): Slight Chance of Showers Early. Becoming Partly Cloudy and Warmer. 43/66 Thu (21 May): Partly Cloudy. 45/69 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Mon May 18 09:28:50 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Mon, 18 May 2009 11:28:50 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Monday, May 18th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Monday, May 18th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 10:00am until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 10:00am until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: A broad but fairly flat upper-level ridge built over Oregon this past weekend, with mostly sunny skies helping temperatures climb into the upper 70s and lower 80s across the Willamette Valley. The ridge shifted eastward, to over Idaho, late Sunday. That induced an onshore flow into western Oregon Sunday evening...bringing cooler air into the Willamette Valley overnight. The ODA Surface analysis this morning showed the thermal trough had shifted into central Oregon with onshore flow across western Oregon. Visible satellite imagery showed low clouds along the entire Washington and Oregon coastlines with some penetration of marine low clouds into gaps in the Oregon coast range. East of the coast range skies were generally sunny across Oregon, with an increasing southwesterly flow aloft spreading considerable high clouds over Washington and northwestern Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures were in the 50s and low 60s across western Oregon. Very warm air was still in place east of the Cascades. Temperatures were in the 60s across central Oregon and already in the 70s near the Idaho border. The thermal trough will continue to migrate eastward, to near the Idaho border, this afternoon. That will make for one more very warm day over eastern Oregon with increasing onshore flow moderating temperatures west of the Cascades. Surface Winds: W 5-10 this morning, NW 8-15 this afternoon. Transport Winds: W 5 this morning, W 10 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 40. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 76. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 42%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:38pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:39am. Extended Outlook: An increasing southwesterly flow aloft will shift the surface thermal trough into Idaho Tuesday, with onshore flow bringing significantly cooler weather to all of Oregon. In addition, a cold front is forecast to move onshore Tuesday morning, bringing light to moderate rain to western Washington and much of western Oregon. A farily vigorous upper-level trough will drop snow levels in the northern Oregon Cascades to near 4000 feet by Tuesday evening, with scattered showers across much of western Oregon. Total rainfall amounts could approach one-half inch from western Washington southward into the northern Willamette Valley. Rainfall amounts will taper off to the south, with southwestern Oregon likely picking up less than one-tenth of an inch. The shower activity should taper off Tuesday night across western Oregon, as the upper-level trough pushes eastward. Scattered showers may continue east of the Cascades, mainly over the mountains of northeastern Oregon, through early Wednesday. A weak upper-level ridge is forecast to move onshore Wednesday with a drier northwesterly flow aloft spreading from west to east across the state. Surface winds will turn northerly over western Oregon with afternoon temperatures recovering to near-normal. The flat ridge is forecast to shift east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon. That will induce weak onshore flow with seasonal temperatures across western Oregon. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to move over Oregon Friday. It will likely increase the onshore and cool temperatures a few degrees. However, it does not appear to be strong to produce any rainfall across the state. In stark contrast to earlier forecasts, the main storm track is now forecast to stay north of Oregon, over the Memorial Day Weekend, with weak westerly flow aloft. That would continue to bring dry conditions to the region with warming temperatures. Tue (19 May): Rain Turning to Showers. Much Cooler. Snow Level 4000 Feet North Late. 50/59 Wed (20 May): Morning Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 39/68 Thu (21 May): Mostly Sunny. Increasing High Clouds Late. 41/75 Fri (22 May): Partly Cloudy. Slightly Cooler. 45/70 Sat (23 May): Morning Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 46/70 Sun (24 May): Mostly Sunny. 44/75 Mon (25 May): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 47/82 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Tue May 19 09:00:30 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Tue, 19 May 2009 11:00:30 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Tuesday, May 19th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: An increasing southwesterly flow aloft shifted the surface thermal trough into central Oregon Monday, with the warmest weather also moving east of the Cascades. Under sunny skies, highs across central and eastern Oregon Monday climbed into the 80s and lower 90s. Monday highs across the Willamette Valley cooled mostly into the middle and upper 70s, although Portland and Eugene both managed to reach 81 degrees. Strong onshore flow kept most of the coastline blanketed in low clouds Monday with temperatures only in the upper 50s and low 60s. A sharp cold front swept across western Oregon Monday night, dropping up to one-half inch of rain in the extreme northern Willamette Valley, mainly near the Cascades foothills. Rainfall totals south of the Portland area were generally from one-tenth to one-third of an inch, with the lowest totals in the south valley. Only about one-tenth of an inch of rain fell along the northern and central coast. Less than one-tenth of an inch fell along the south coast and across southwestern Oregon. The cold front produced only a few light showers, as it pushed east of the Cascades early this morning. At mid-morning, the ODA surface analysis showed the cold front stretching from northern Idaho to southeastern Oregon, with onshore flow spreading cooler air across all of Oregon. Visible satellite imagery showed a fairly narrow band of clouds, associated with the cold front, extending into northeastern Oregon with partly to mostly sunny skies elsewhere east of the Cascades. Strong onshore flow was producing considerable marine low clouds over western Oregon with some showers...mainly over the coast range and the Cascades. A farily vigorous upper-level trough will cut across Washington and northern Oregon this afternoon...dropping snow levels in the northern Oregon Cascades to near 4000 feet and enhancing the shower activity over northwestern Oregon. Daytime heating may combine with cold air aloft to produce a thunderstorm or two over the north valley this afternoon. Mostly cloudy skies and continued strong onshore flow should hold temperatures mostly in the upper 50s...about 20 degrees cooler than on Monday. Surface Winds: SW 5-10 this morning, SW 5-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: WSW 10 this morning, W 15 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 75. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 59. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 55%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:38am. Extended Outlook: The shower activity should taper off tonight across western Oregon, as the upper-level trough pushes eastward. Scattered showers may continue, over the mountains of northeastern Oregon, through early Wednesday. A weak upper-level ridge is forecast to move onshore Wednesday with a drier northwesterly flow aloft spreading from west to east across the state. Surface winds will turn northerly, and increase, over western Oregon Wednesday afternoon, with temperatures recovering to near-normal. The flat ridge is forecast to shift east of the Cascades Thursday afternoon, with the flow aloft turning more westerly. That will induce a weak surge of cooler ocean air into the Willamette Valley Thursday evening. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to move over Oregon Friday, with continued onshore flow but little to no rainfall. The main storm track is still forecast to move well north of Oregon, over the Memorial Day Weekend, with weak westerly flow aloft. An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week with the flow aloft turning more southerly. Tomorrow (20 May): Morning Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 39/68 Thu (21 May): Mostly Sunny. Increasing High Clouds Late. 40/75 Fri (22 May): Partly Cloudy. Slightly Cooler. 45/72 Sat (23 May): Morning Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 46/74 Sun (24 May): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 46/78 Mon (25 May): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 47/82 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny And Warm. 50/85 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Wed May 20 09:35:10 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Wed, 20 May 2009 09:35:10 -0700 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Willamette Valley Ag Weather Forecast Message-ID: Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Wednesday, May 20th, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A sharp cold front swept across Oregon Monday night and Tuesday, followed by a cold upper-level trough. The combination of the cold front and subsequent upper-level trough dropped up to one-half inch of rain along the extreme north coast and from about Salem north in the Willamette Valley. Rainfall amounts rapidly tapered off to the south with the southern Willamette Valley only picking up about one-tenth of an inch. Much of southwestern Oregon only received trace amounts of rain. Precipitation was scattered and light east of the Cascades. However, Meacham, in the Blue Mountains of northeastern Oregon, picked up about one-quarter of an inch of rain. The cold front ushered much cooler marine air into the state Tuesday. Willamette Valley high temperatures only managed to climb into the upper 50s and low 60s, after peaking in the upper 70s and low 80s Monday. In southwestern Oregon, Medford only hit 70 Tuesday, after a high Monday of 91 degrees. The cooling was accompanied by brisk onshore winds...especially east of the Cascades. Rome, in southeastern Oregon, had wind gusts to 49 mph Tuesday afternoon, as the cold front pushed towards the Idaho border. Pendleton had gusts to 38 mph Tuesday. Burns and Baker City had gusts to 35 mph. Redmond recorded a gust of 32 mph. Westerly winds gusted to between 20 and 25 mph Tuesday in the Willamette Valley. The ODA surface analysis this morning showed the cold front had moved east of Oregon and into the Rockies. With high pressure centers over the northern Willamette Valley and northeastern Oregon, onshore pressure gradients were turning northerly across the state. Winds were still blustery east of the Cascades with gusts between 15 and 25 mph common. Winds were light in the Willamette Valley early this morning and were becoming increasingly northerly at mid-morning. Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies over Oregon this morning, except for some residual low clouds over mainly northwestern Oregon. Doppler radar showed a few dying sprinkles over the extrme northwest corner of the state...extending inland to around Portland. Clearing skies overnight allowed some Willamette Valley locations to drop well into the 30s. Eugene dipped to 33 degrees early this morning, just missing the record low of 32 degrees, set way back in 1913. Corvallis dropped to 36 degrees and McMinnville hit 35. Redmond was the cool spot in the state this mornig with a minimum of 25 degrees. Mid-morning temperatures were mostly in the 40s and low 50s across the state. A weak upper-level ridge is forecast to move onshore today with a drier northwesterly flow aloft spreading from west to east across the state. Surface winds will turn northerly and could become rather blustery this afternoon, especially in the southern Willamette Valley and along the central and southern coast. Mostly sunny skies and warming aloft will help temperatures recover to near-normal this afternoon. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this morning, N 10-15 G20 from Salem south this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 8 this morning, NNE 14 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4500 feet. Ventilation index 63. High Temperature: Salem's high temperature today will be near 67. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 38%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:40pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:37am. Extended Outlook: The transitory flat ridge of high pressure that is moving onshore today is forecast to shift east of the Cascades by Thursday afternoon, with the flow aloft turning more westerly. That will induce a weak surge of cooler ocean air into the Willamette Valley Thursday night and Friday. A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to move over Oregon Friday, with continued onshore flow but little to no rainfall. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again Satruday. An upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the Rockies early next week, with increasing southerly flow aloft over Oregon. That will warm temperatures and also bring some moisture northward into the state for a chance of mainly mountain thunderstorms. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southwesterly by midweek, with increasing onshore flow at the surface. Tomorrow (21 May): Mostly Sunny. 39/74 Fri (22 May): Partly Cloudy. Slightly Cooler. 43/72 Sat (23 May): Morning Clouds...Becoming Mostly Sunny. 46/74 Sun (24 May): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 46/78 Mon (25 May): Mostly Sunny and Warmer. 47/82 Tue (26 May): Partly Cloudy and Warm. Slight Chance of T-Storms. 50/80 Wed (27 May): Partly Cloudy and Slightly Cooler. 49/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Thu May 21 09:14:46 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Thu, 21 May 2009 11:14:46 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, May 21st, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Thursday, May 21st, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Stack burning is not allowed. Weather Discussion: A flat and weak upper-level ridge moved onshore Wednesday with a drier northwesterly flow aloft spreading from west to east across the state. Strong onshore flow turned northerly, and winds became blustery Wednesday afternoon in the Willamette Valley and along the central and southern coast. Northerly winds gusted to more than 30 mph in Newport to 40 mph in North Bend, along the coast. In the Willamette Valley, northerly wind-gusts between 20 and 25 mph were common Wednesday afternoon. Some warming aloft helped to clear skies in the afternoon, but temperatures remained below normal, with highs only near 60 along the coast and in the mid 60s in the Willamette Valley. Central and eastern Oregon saw plenty of sunshine Wednesday, but cool north-northwesterly winds also held temperatures there in the 60s. Mostly clear skies overnight allowed temperatures to drop into the upper 30s and lower 40s over most of western Oregon. East of the Cascades, minimums dipped as low as the mid 20s, under clear skies. Meacham was the cold spot in the state this morning with a low of 26 degrees. The morning sounding over Salem showed weak westerly flow aloft with some minor warming of the air mass since Wednesday afternoon. The ODA surface analysis showed generally northerly gradients across all of Oregon, with the California thermal trough being held south of Oregon due to the westerly flow aloft. Satellite imagery showed mostly clear skies across the entire Pacific Northwest, with only a few patches of marine low clouds over western Oregon. Mid-morning temperatures had warmed into the upper 40s and low 50s across most of Oregon. Winds were generally northerly between 5 and 15 mph on both sides of the Cascades. The air mass aloft has warmed enough to prohibit the development of convective cloud formation today, so skies should remain sunny today statewide. Some tightening of the northerly presure gradients is expected again the afternoon, so north winds will increase along the coast and in the Willamette Valley. High temperatures should climb into the low 60s along the coast and low 70s in the Willamette Valley. Cascade pass temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon, with the freezing level above 10,000 feet. Afternoon temperatures east of the Cascades should climb mostly into the 70s. The flat upper-level ridge over the region is forecast to shift eastward, to over Idaho, by tonight. That will turn the flow aloft slightly southwesterly and increase the onshore flow into western Oregon overnight. Marine low clouds will likely push onshore by Friday morning and locally into the Willamette Valley. Overnight temperatures should remain above 40 degrees in the valley. Surface Winds: N 5-12 this morning, N 10-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNE 12 this morning, N 13 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 4000 feet. Ventilation index 52. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 73. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 33%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:41pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:36am. Extended Outlook: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to move over Oregon Friday and Saturday, with increasing onshore flow but little to no rainfall. Areas of morning low clouds should give way to afternoon sunshine west of the Cascades, with mostly sunny skies across central and eastern Oregon. Temperatures will likely cool a couple of degrees over western Oregon, due to the increased onshore flow. Transport winds will back from northerly to northwesterly, which should improve ventilation conditions for possible stack burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again by late Sunday. A weak upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week, which should warm temperatures above normal with weak onshore flow. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southwesterly by midweek, with increasing onshore flow starting a cooling trend at the surface. Tomorrow (22 May): Partly Cloudy in the Morning. Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/71 Sat (23 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/71 Sun (24 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/73 Mon (25 May): Brief Morning Clouds...Sunny and a Little Warmer in the Afternoon. 43/76 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny. 46/79 Wed (27 May): Mostly Sunny. 49/78 Thu (28 May): Morning Clouds. Partly Sunny and Cooler in the Afternoon. 48/69 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri May 22 09:01:05 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 May 2009 11:01:05 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. Issued: Friday, May 22nd, 2009 at 9:00am. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from 11:00am until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies stayed clear over most of the Willamette Valley overnight, while increasing onshore flow brough marine low clouds onto the coast and into the western slopes of the coast range. Visible satellite imagery showed a solid balnket of low clouds over the northern and central coast with some penetration of low clouds into the southern Willamette Valley and the Umqua River Basin. Skies remained clear, at mid-morning, from Portland southward through Marion County, but low clouds were forming along the western slopws of the Cascades in Linn County with more extensive low clouds in western Lane and Douglas Counties. Temperatures stayed mostly above 40 degrees overnight across western Oregon. Eugene was one the coldest spots, with a minimum of 39 degrees. Some low clouds formed in the Eugene area around daybreak and remained there at mid-morning. By 8am most of western Oregon had warmed into the low 50s. Under clear skies, most of central and eastern Oregon had also warmed into the 50s. The ODA surface analysis showed the pressure gradients had shifted from northerly to more northwesterly across Oregon...indicating an increase in the onshore flow. Northerly winds were already gusting over 20 mph along the central and southern coast but were generally less than 10 mph across the interiof of the state. The morning sounding over Salem showed that the flow aloft had become light southwesterly, in response to a weak upper-level trough approaching the coast. The air aloft was still warm, with the freezing level measured at 10,300 feet. That will, once again, prohibit the development of convective clouds this afternoon, so skies should stay sunny, except for the areas of marine low clouds in the southern valleys and along the coast. Some tightening of the northwesterly pressure gradients is expected today, so north-northwesterly winds should increase this afternoon across the state. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to Thursday with highs near 60 along the coast and in the low 70s in the Willamette Valley. Cascade pass temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon, with 70s across most of central and eastern Oregon. Surface Winds: N 5-15 this morning, NNW 8-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: N 13 this morning, NNW 16 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:35am. Extended Outlook: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to remain over Oregon Saturday, with continued onshore flow keeping temperatures near normal with plenty of afternoon sunshine across western Oregon. Skies should be mostly sunny across central and eastern Oregon. Transport winds should maintain enough of a northwesterly component to make for good ventilation for possible stack burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again by late Sunday. Slight warming aloft and decreased onshore flow will help temperatures climb a few degrees. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week, which should warm temperatures a few more degrees. However, very weak onshore flow will keep temperatures from getting too much above average west of the Cascades. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southwesterly by midweek, but onshore flow is forecast to remain weak. Tomorrow (23 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 41/70 Sun (24 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/73 Mon (25 May): Brief Morning Clouds...Sunny and a Little Warmer in the Afternoon. 43/76 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 46/79 Wed (27 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 48/78 Thu (28 May): Mostly Sunny. 48/75 Fri (29 May): Mostly Sunny. 48/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri May 22 12:09:49 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 May 2009 14:09:49 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Monday, June 1st, 2009... Issued: Friday, May 22nd, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies stayed clear over most of the Willamette Valley overnight. Increasing onshore flow brought marine low clouds onto the coast and into the interior valleys of southwestern Oregon...including the southern Willamette Valley. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed the blanket of low clouds along the coast beginning to back offshore, with considerable low clouds remaining from Linn County south to Douglas County. Skies were generally sunny elsewhere across Oregon and over virtually all of Washington and Idaho. Temperatures stayed mostly above 40 degrees overnight across western Oregon. Eugene was one the coldest spots, with a minimum of 38 degrees. Low clouds formed in the Eugene area around daybreak and were breaking up late this morning. By 11am most of the interior valleys of western Oregon had warmed into the low 60s. The exception was Roseburg, where persistent marine low clouds were holding temperatures in the mid 50s. Coastal temperatures were in the 50s with sunshine coming out along most of the coastal strip. East of the Cascades, temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across all of Oregon with generally northwesterly pressure gradients. Northerly winds were already gusting between 25 and 30 mph along the central and southern coast but were still generally less than 10 mph across the interior of the state. The morning sounding over Salem showed that the flow aloft had become light southwesterly, in response to a weak upper-level trough approaching the coast. The air aloft was still warm, with the freezing level measured at 10,300 feet. That will prohibit the development of convective clouds again this afternoon, so sunny skies should prevail statewide this afternoon. Some tightening of the northwesterly pressure gradients is expected today, so north-northwesterly winds should increase this afternoon across the state. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to Thursday with highs near 60 along the coast and in the low 70s in the Willamette Valley. Cascade pass temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon, with 70s and low 80s across central and eastern Oregon. Surface Winds: NNW 8-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 16 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:35am. Extended Outlook: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to remain over Oregon Saturday, with continued onshore flow keeping temperatures near normal with plenty of afternoon sunshine across western Oregon. Skies should be mostly sunny across central and eastern Oregon. Transport winds should maintain enough of a northwesterly component to make for good ventilation for possible stack burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again by late Sunday. Slight warming aloft and decreased onshore flow will help temperatures climb a few degrees. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week, which should warm temperatures a few more degrees. However, very weak onshore flow will keep temperatures from getting too much above average west of the Cascades. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southerly by the end of next week, which may introduce some moisture into the region for a chance of showers or thundershowers. Tomorrow (23 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 41/70 Sun (24 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/73 Mon (25 May): Brief Morning Clouds...Sunny and a Little Warmer in the Afternoon. 43/76 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 46/79 Wed (27 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 48/78 Thu (28 May): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers or Thuundershowers. 49/75 Fri (29 May): Partly Cloudy. Chance of Showers or Thundershowers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri May 22 12:18:56 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 May 2009 14:18:56 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Monday, June 1st, 2009... Issued: Friday, May 22nd, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies stayed clear over most of the Willamette Valley overnight. Increasing onshore flow brought marine low clouds onto the coast and into the interior valleys of southwestern Oregon...including the southern Willamette Valley. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed the blanket of low clouds along the coast beginning to back offshore, with considerable low clouds remaining from Linn County south to Douglas County. Skies were generally sunny elsewhere across Oregon and over virtually all of Washington and Idaho. Temperatures stayed mostly above 40 degrees overnight across western Oregon. Eugene was one the coldest spots, with a minimum of 38 degrees. Low clouds formed in the Eugene area around daybreak and were breaking up late this morning. By 11am most of the interior valleys of western Oregon had warmed into the low 60s. The exception was Roseburg, where persistent marine low clouds were holding temperatures in the mid 50s. Coastal temperatures were in the 50s with sunshine coming out along most of the coastal strip. East of the Cascades, temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across all of Oregon with generally northwesterly pressure gradients. Northerly winds were already gusting between 25 and 30 mph along the central and southern coast but were still generally less than 10 mph across the interior of the state. The morning sounding over Salem showed that the flow aloft had become light southwesterly, in response to a weak upper-level trough approaching the coast. The air aloft was still warm, with the freezing level measured at 10,300 feet. That will prohibit the development of convective clouds again this afternoon, so sunny skies should prevail statewide this afternoon. Some tightening of the northwesterly pressure gradients is expected today, so north-northwesterly winds should increase this afternoon across the state. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to Thursday with highs near 60 along the coast and in the low 70s in the Willamette Valley. Cascade pass temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon, with 70s and low 80s across central and eastern Oregon. Surface Winds: NNW 8-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 16 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:35am. Extended Outlook: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to remain over Oregon Saturday, with continued onshore flow keeping temperatures near normal with plenty of afternoon sunshine across western Oregon. Skies should be mostly sunny across central and eastern Oregon. Transport winds should maintain enough of a northwesterly component to make for good ventilation for possible stack burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again by late Sunday. Slight warming aloft and decreased onshore flow will help temperatures climb a few degrees. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week, which should warm temperatures a few more degrees. However, very weak onshore flow will keep temperatures from getting too much above average west of the Cascades. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southerly by the end of next week, which may introduce some moisture into the region for a chance of showers or thundershowers. Tomorrow (23 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 41/70 Sun (24 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/73 Mon (25 May): Brief Morning Clouds...Sunny and a Little Warmer in the Afternoon. 43/76 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 46/79 Wed (27 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 48/78 Thu (28 May): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers or Thuundershowers. 49/75 Fri (29 May): Partly Cloudy. Chance of Showers or Thundershowers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us From willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us Fri May 22 13:24:54 2009 From: willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us (Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast) Date: Fri, 22 May 2009 15:24:54 -0500 Subject: [willamette-fcst] Forecast - Friday, May 22nd, 2009 Message-ID: Daily Smoke Management Forecast Oregon Department of Agriculture Smoke Management Program Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts. NOON UPDATE ...Next Update Not Scheduled Until Monday, June 1st, 2009... Issued: Friday, May 22nd, 2009 at 12:00pm. Burn Advisory: Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 6:30pm. Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 6:30pm. Weather Discussion: Skies stayed clear over most of the Willamette Valley overnight. Increasing onshore flow brought marine low clouds onto the coast and into the interior valleys of southwestern Oregon...including the southern Willamette Valley. Late-morning visible satellite imagery showed the blanket of low clouds along the coast beginning to back offshore, with considerable low clouds remaining from Linn County south to Douglas County. Skies were generally sunny elsewhere across Oregon and over virtually all of Washington and Idaho. Temperatures stayed mostly above 40 degrees overnight across western Oregon. Eugene was one the coldest spots, with a minimum of 38 degrees. Low clouds formed in the Eugene area around daybreak and were breaking up late this morning. By 11am most of the interior valleys of western Oregon had warmed into the low 60s. The exception was Roseburg, where persistent marine low clouds were holding temperatures in the mid 50s. Coastal temperatures were in the 50s with sunshine coming out along most of the coastal strip. East of the Cascades, temperatures ranged from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. The late-morning ODA surface analysis showed onshore flow across all of Oregon with generally northwesterly pressure gradients. Northerly winds were already gusting between 25 and 30 mph along the central and southern coast but were still generally less than 10 mph across the interior of the state. The morning sounding over Salem showed that the flow aloft had become light southwesterly, in response to a weak upper-level trough approaching the coast. The air aloft was still warm, with the freezing level measured at 10,300 feet. That will prohibit the development of convective clouds again this afternoon, so sunny skies should prevail statewide this afternoon. Some tightening of the northwesterly pressure gradients is expected today, so north-northwesterly winds should increase this afternoon across the state. Afternoon temperatures will be similar to Thursday with highs near 60 along the coast and in the low 70s in the Willamette Valley. Cascade pass temperatures should climb into the 60s this afternoon, with 70s and low 80s across central and eastern Oregon. Surface Winds: NNW 8-15 G20 this afternoon. Transport Winds: NNW 16 this afternoon. Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions: Maximum mixing height today will be near 5000 feet. Ventilation index 80. High Temperature: Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 72. Humidities: Minimum relative humidity will be near 39%. Sunrise/Sunset: Salem sunset tonight: 8:42pm; sunrise tomorrow: 5:35am. Extended Outlook: A very weak upper-level trough is forecast to remain over Oregon Saturday, with continued onshore flow keeping temperatures near normal with plenty of afternoon sunshine across western Oregon. Skies should be mostly sunny across central and eastern Oregon. Transport winds should maintain enough of a northwesterly component to make for good ventilation for possible stack burning. The flow aloft is forecast to turn northwesterly and dry out again by late Sunday. Slight warming aloft and decreased onshore flow will help temperatures climb a few degrees. A flat upper-level ridge is forecast to build over the region early next week, which should warm temperatures a few more degrees. However, very weak onshore flow will keep temperatures from getting too much above average west of the Cascades. The upper-level flow is forecast to turn more southerly by the end of next week, which may introduce some moisture into the region for a chance of showers or thundershowers. Tomorrow (23 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 41/70 Sun (24 May): Morning Clouds. Mostly Sunny in the Afternoon. 43/73 Mon (25 May): Brief Morning Clouds...Sunny and a Little Warmer in the Afternoon. 43/76 Tue (26 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 46/79 Wed (27 May): Mostly Sunny and Warm. 48/78 Thu (28 May): Partly Cloudy. Slight Chance of Showers or Thuundershowers. 49/75 Fri (29 May): Partly Cloudy. Chance of Showers or Thundershowers. 50/75 ODA Meteorologist weather at oda.state.or.us