[willamette-fcst] Forecast - Thursday, November 19th, 2009
Willamette Valley Ag/Burning Forecast
willamette-fcst at listsmart.osl.state.or.us
Thu Nov 19 09:10:48 PST 2009
Daily Smoke Management Forecast
Oregon Department of Agriculture
Smoke Management Program
Weather Outlook and Field Burning Advisory for Willamette Valley Growers and Fire Districts.
Issued:
Thursday, November 19th, 2009 at 9:00am.
Burn Advisory:
Agricultural burning is allowed. Suggested burn times are from now until 2:30pm.
Straw stack burning is allowed from now until 2:30pm.
Weather Discussion:
An active frontal boundary stalled over western Washington
and northwestern Oregon Wednesday night. Over one inch of
rain fell overnight along sections of the northern Oregon
Coast, the northern coastal range, and the over western
slopes of the extreme northern Oregon Cascades. The
heaviest rains, though, fell further north, across western
Washington. The central Washington Coast picked up around
two inches of rain, with more than three inches falling
along the northern Washington Coast. Less than one-quarter
of an inch of rain fell over the Willamette Valley, with the
south valley only picking up a few hundredths of an inch.
A fairly strong low-pressure center tracked well to the
northwest of the region, moving inland this morning north of
Vancouver Island, British Columbia. It was still close
enough to bring strong southerly winds to the coast and
blustery conditions to the Willamette Valley overnight.
Winds gutsed between 50 and 60 mph along most of the central
and northern Oregon Coast overnight, with gusts to 35 mph in
the Willamette Valley. The southerly winds held minimum
temperatures mostly in the mid to upper 40s in the
Willamette Valley and low to mid 50s along the coast.
The frontal system is forecast to reactivate and push
slightly north today, as another wave of low-pressure
develops along the front, well offshore. This low-pressure
center is also forecast to track northeastward, moving inland
just north of Vancouver Island, British Columbia late
tonight. That will increase the rainfall along the front,
with the bulk of the moisture staying north and west of
Oregon, until late tonight, when the cold front finally
comes onshore.
Southerly pressure gradients will be increasing across
western Oregon today, so the National Weather Service has
issued a High Wind Warning, valid until midnight, for the
Oregon Coast. South winds were gusting from 50-60 mph along
the northern and central coast this morning and will likely
increase to as high as 75 mph, over exposed headlands and
beaches, this afternoon and evening. Southerly winds in the
Willamette Valley will likely continue to gust as high as 35
mph throughout the day and into this evening
Oregon will be in the warm-sector of the storm, with
blustery south winds lifting Willamette Valley temperatures
into the mid to upper 50s this afternoon. The freezing
level over Salem was measured at 7000 feet this morning and
may rise slightly more this afternoon. Rainfall may be
locally heavy over the extreme northwestern corner of the
state today but should be light elsewhere over western
Oregon. The southern Willamette Valley may not see any rain
at all.
Surface Winds:
S 15-25 G35 this morning, S 15-25 G35 this afternoon.
Transport Winds:
S 35 this morning, S 35 this afternoon.
Atmospheric Ventilation Conditions:
Maximum mixing height today will be near 3000 feet. Ventilation index 105.
High Temperature:
Salem\'s high temperature today will be near 58.
Humidities:
Minimum relative humidity will be near 45%.
Sunrise/Sunset:
Salem sunset tonight: 4:39pm; sunrise tomorrow: 7:17am.
Extended Outlook:
The cold front is forecast to finally come onshore tonight
and progress across western Oregon Friday morning. Rainfall could
be locally heavy, especially along the coast and in the
coastal range, through Friday morning. Strong southerly
winds will turn more southwesterly and begin decreasing,
after the front passes through Friday morning. The steady
rain will turn to showers Friday afternoon, with the snow
level dropping back to around 2500 feet by Friday night.
Accumulating snow is expected over the mountain passes by
Friday evening.
Showers will taper off Saturday, with yet another weather
system forecast to come onshore Saturday evening. That will
be a colder system, with possibly heavy snow in the
Cascades. Showers will taper off Sunday afternoon. A
weaker system is slated to spread more rain across western
Oregon Monday...along with rising snow levels. We may get a
break from the rain next Tuesday and Wednesday. A wet pattern
is forecast to return about next Thursday.
Fri (20 Nov): Rain and Windy...Turning to Showers. Snow Level Dropping to 2500 Feet. 45/50
Sat (21 Nov): Showers Early...Rain and Wind Late. Snow Level 3-4000 Feet. 39/48
Sun (22 Nov): Showers. Snow Level near 3000 Feet. 40/49
Mon (23 Nov): Light Rain Likely. Snow Level Rising to 5-6000 Feet. 42/54
Tue (24 Nov): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny and Mild. 40/53
Wed (25 Nov): Areas of AM Fog...Partly Sunny and Mild. 38/53
Thu (26 Nov): Rain Likely. Snow Level 6000 Feet. 43/51
ODA Meteorologist
weather at oda.state.or.us
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